MSFT Implied Volatility: IV Now & Im History

Microsoft get one of the most calm mega-cap chains wey dey the board. This page dey track MSFT implied volatility — na the live price wey market dey put for how e go move — three ways: every session for the last three months, im month-by-month history against index benchmarks, and how e dey slope across expirations. Every number na dem take measure am from real option closing prices and dem dey refresh am with the weekly batch.

MSFT implied volatility, the last 90 days

SELECT toString(date) AS session_date,
       round(100 * quantileExact(0.5)(implied_volatility), 1) AS atm_iv_pct
FROM global_markets.options_greeks
WHERE underlying_symbol = 'MSFT'
  AND date >= (SELECT max(date) - 90 FROM global_markets.options_greeks)
  AND iv_converged AND implied_volatility BETWEEN 0.02 AND 5
  AND abs(strike_price / underlying_close - 1) <= 0.05
  AND expiration_date BETWEEN date + 7 AND date + 60
GROUP BY date
HAVING count() >= 10
ORDER BY date

Each point na one session median implied volatility across MSFT near-the-money contracts (strikes wey dey within 5% of the stock, wey dey expire from one week reach two months). The latest reading na 42.2%. IV of that size na annualized number: na the yearly percentage move wey option prices dey treat as normal. If you divide am by around 16, you go see the implied one-day move.

MSFT IV history vs the market, month by month

SELECT toString(toStartOfMonth(date)) AS month,
       round(100 * quantileExactIf(0.5)(implied_volatility, underlying_symbol = 'MSFT'), 1) AS msft_iv_pct,
       round(100 * quantileExactIf(0.5)(implied_volatility, underlying_symbol = 'SPY'), 1) AS spy_iv_pct,
       round(100 * quantileExactIf(0.5)(implied_volatility, underlying_symbol = 'QQQ'), 1) AS qqq_iv_pct
FROM global_markets.options_greeks
WHERE underlying_symbol IN ('MSFT', 'SPY', 'QQQ')
  AND date >= toDate('2022-07-01')
  AND iv_converged AND implied_volatility BETWEEN 0.02 AND 5
  AND abs(strike_price / underlying_close - 1) <= 0.05
  AND expiration_date BETWEEN date + 7 AND date + 60
GROUP BY month
HAVING countIf(underlying_symbol = 'MSFT') >= 50
ORDER BY month

The chart na MSFT fear gauge over time, dem draw am against the market own. SPY and QQQ lines dey carry the same measurement for the market benchmark chains — the latest month read 36.8% for MSFT, against 13.3% for SPY and 23.5% for QQQ. Diversified index almost always dey carry less implied volatility pass any single name wey dey inside am — the gap between the lines na the single-name premium, and how that gap dey wide and narrow na the story of MSFT risk cycles. The peaks na the times when option buyers pay highest; the troughs na the stretches wey market treat the name as quiet.

The term structure: MSFT IV by expiration

SELECT multiIf(days_to_expiry <= 14, 'Under 2 weeks', days_to_expiry <= 45, '2-6 weeks',
               days_to_expiry <= 120, '6 weeks - 4 months', 'Beyond 4 months') AS expiry_bucket,
       round(100 * quantileExact(0.5)(implied_volatility), 1) AS atm_iv_pct,
       count() AS contracts
FROM global_markets.options_greeks
WHERE underlying_symbol = 'MSFT'
  AND date = (SELECT max(date) FROM global_markets.options_greeks)
  AND iv_converged AND implied_volatility BETWEEN 0.02 AND 5
  AND abs(strike_price / underlying_close - 1) <= 0.05
GROUP BY expiry_bucket
HAVING count() >= 5
ORDER BY min(days_to_expiry)

If you read across the buckets, you go see wetin market dey expect WHEN. If front end dey above back end, e mean say dem dey price near-term event risk — report, decision, catalyst wey dey inside the window. Flat or upward-sloping curve na the resting state: more time, more uncertainty, gently higher IV.

FAQ

Wetin be MSFT implied volatility right now?

42.2% at the money as at the latest session wey dey on file, dem measure am across near-the-money contracts wey dey expire for 7-60 days. The 90-day chart wey dey above carry the full recent path; the number dey refresh with the weekly batch.

MSFT IV high or low right now?

Judge am three ways: against im own recent path (the 90-day chart), against im own history (the monthly chart, where the latest month read 36.8%), and against the benchmarks wey dem draw on the same axes. For where market extremes dey, the high-IV board dey track the names wey dey price the biggest moves.

How dem dey measure this?

From MSFT near-the-money contracts (strikes wey dey within 5% of the stock price) for each session close, dem dey keep only contracts where the volatility solve converge; each value na the median, and dem dey drop thin sessions and months by the contract floors wey dey visible for each panel SQL.

Wetin dey move MSFT implied volatility?

Scheduled events dey load IV ahead and dem dey crush am after; realized turbulence dey raise am; calm dey grind am down. The monthly history wey dey above na the record of those exact cycles.

Every panel na stored, versioned query over the full options tape — you fit expand any panel to audit am, or measure any strike of MSFT chain for the Strasmore terminal. For the concept, start at wetin implied volatility be; for how strikes dey differ on the same stock, see volatility skew.