COIN Implied Volatility: IV Now & History

Coinbase dey carry one crypto-linked chain wey im IV dey follow crypto cycle. This page dey track COIN implied volatility — the market live price for im future movement — three ways: every session of the last three months, im month-by-month history against the index benchmarks, and how e dey slope across expirations. Every number na from real option closing prices dem take measure am, and dem dey refresh am with the weekly batch.

COIN implied volatility, the last 90 days

SELECT toString(date) AS session_date,
       round(100 * quantileExact(0.5)(implied_volatility), 1) AS atm_iv_pct
FROM global_markets.options_greeks
WHERE underlying_symbol = 'COIN'
  AND date >= (SELECT max(date) - 90 FROM global_markets.options_greeks)
  AND iv_converged AND implied_volatility BETWEEN 0.02 AND 5
  AND abs(strike_price / underlying_close - 1) <= 0.05
  AND expiration_date BETWEEN date + 7 AND date + 60
GROUP BY date
HAVING count() >= 10
ORDER BY date

Each point na one session median implied volatility across COIN near-the-money contracts (strikes wey dey within 5% of the stock, wey dey expire from one week to two months out). The latest reading na 81.4%. IV of that size na annualized number: the yearly percentage move wey the option prices dey treat as typical, and if you divide am by about 16, you go get the implied one-day move.

COIN IV history vs the market, month by month

SELECT toString(toStartOfMonth(date)) AS month,
       round(100 * quantileExactIf(0.5)(implied_volatility, underlying_symbol = 'COIN'), 1) AS coin_iv_pct,
       round(100 * quantileExactIf(0.5)(implied_volatility, underlying_symbol = 'SPY'), 1) AS spy_iv_pct,
       round(100 * quantileExactIf(0.5)(implied_volatility, underlying_symbol = 'QQQ'), 1) AS qqq_iv_pct
FROM global_markets.options_greeks
WHERE underlying_symbol IN ('COIN', 'SPY', 'QQQ')
  AND date >= toDate('2022-07-01')
  AND iv_converged AND implied_volatility BETWEEN 0.02 AND 5
  AND abs(strike_price / underlying_close - 1) <= 0.05
  AND expiration_date BETWEEN date + 7 AND date + 60
GROUP BY month
HAVING countIf(underlying_symbol = 'COIN') >= 50
ORDER BY month

The chart na COIN fear gauge over time, dem draw am against the market own. The SPY and QQQ lines dey carry the same measurement for the market benchmark chains — the latest month dey read 76.7% for COIN against 13.3% for SPY and 23.5% for QQQ. Diversified index almost always dey carry less implied volatility pass any single name wey dey inside am — the gap between the lines na the single-name premium, and how that gap dey widen and narrow na the story of COIN risk cycles. The peaks na the times wey option buyers pay pass well well; the troughs na the stretches wey the market treat the name as quiet.

The term structure: COIN IV by expiration

SELECT multiIf(days_to_expiry <= 14, 'Under 2 weeks', days_to_expiry <= 45, '2-6 weeks',
               days_to_expiry <= 120, '6 weeks - 4 months', 'Beyond 4 months') AS expiry_bucket,
       round(100 * quantileExact(0.5)(implied_volatility), 1) AS atm_iv_pct,
       count() AS contracts
FROM global_markets.options_greeks
WHERE underlying_symbol = 'COIN'
  AND date = (SELECT max(date) FROM global_markets.options_greeks)
  AND iv_converged AND implied_volatility BETWEEN 0.02 AND 5
  AND abs(strike_price / underlying_close - 1) <= 0.05
GROUP BY expiry_bucket
HAVING count() >= 5
ORDER BY min(days_to_expiry)

If you read across the buckets, you go see wetin the market dey expect and WHEN. Front end wey dey above the back end mean say near-term event risk dey priced — one report, one decision, one catalyst wey dey inside the window. Flat or upward-sloping curve na the resting state: more time, more uncertainty, IV dey rise small small.

FAQ

Wetin be COIN implied volatility right now?

81.4% at the money as of the latest session wey dey on file, dem measure am across near-the-money contracts wey dey expire 7-60 days out. The 90-day chart wey dey above carry the full recent path; the number dey refresh with the weekly batch.

COIN IV dey high or low right now?

Judge am three ways: against im own recent path (the 90-day chart), against im own history (the monthly chart, where the latest month dey read 76.7%), and against the benchmarks wey dem draw on the same axes. For where the market extremes dey sit, the high-IV board dey track the names wey dey price the biggest moves.

How dem take measure this one?

From COIN near-the-money contracts (strikes wey dey within 5% of the stock price) at each session close, dem dey keep only contracts where the volatility solve converge; each value na the median, and dem dey drop thin sessions and months by the contract floors wey dey visible inside each panel SQL.

Wetin dey move COIN implied volatility?

Scheduled events dey load IV ahead and crush am after; realized turbulence dey raise am; calm dey grind am down. The monthly history wey dey above na the record of exactly those cycles.

Every panel na stored, versioned query over the full options tape — you fit expand any panel to audit am, or measure any strike of COIN chain on the Strasmore terminal. For the concept, start at wetin implied volatility be; for how strikes dey differ on the same stock, see volatility skew.