Lehman Brothers kuanguka 2008 tape

Asubuhi ya Septemba 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers ilifungua kesi kubwa zaidi ya kufilisika katika historia ya Marekani, na S&P 500 ilifunguliwa ndani yake. Ukurasa huu unacheza tena tukio zima kutoka kwa data ya soko iliyohifadhiwa: kile kilichomwangusha kampuni hiyo, mzunguko wa kifo wa miezi kumi na nane wa hisa ya Lehman yenyewe, rekodi ya dakika ya Jumatatu yenyewe, wiki iliyofuata iliyokuwa na mabadiliko makali, na jinsi mgogoro wa 2008 ulivyoendelea hadi mwisho. Kila nambari ni swala lililohifadhiwa juu ya rekodi; panua paneli yoyote kwa SQL.

Kilichomwangusha Lehman

Lehman ilikuwa kampuni ya dhamana yenye umri wa miaka 158 na benki ya uwekezaji ya nne kwa ukubwa nchini Marekani ilipoanguka, na mbinu za kushindwa kwake hazikuwa za kigeni. Katika kipindi cha mwishoni mwa miaka ya 2000, wakati wa mwamko wa nyumba, ilijaza mizania yake na mali zinazohusiana na rehani, mikopo ya hatari (subprime) na Alt-A, mali isiyohamishika ya kibiashara, na vifurushi vya dhamana vilivyojengwa kutoka kwa hizo, huku ikitumia kiwango cha ukombozi (leverage) cha takriban dola thelathini za mali kwa kila dola moja ya usawa wa wanahisa. Kwa uwiano huo, asilimia ndogo ya kupungua kwa thamani ya mali hufuta kabisa usawa. Wakati bei za nyumba nchini Marekani ziliposhuka mwaka 2006 na 2007, thamani ya soko ya mali hizo ilipungua, upunguzaji wa thamani (write-downs) uliongezeka robo baada ya robo, na washirika wa biashara walidai dhamana zaidi na zaidi ili kuendelea kufanya biashara na kampuni hiyo.

Mwisho ulijikita katika siku kumi. Mazungumzo ya kuuza hisa kwa Benki ya Maendeleo ya Korea (Korea Development Bank) iliyomilikiwa na serikali yalimalizika bila mpango mapema Septemba. Hasara ya robo ya tatu ya mabilioni ya dola ilitangazwa mapema Septemba 10. Katika wikendi ya mwisho, Benki ya Amerika (Bank of America) ilinunua Merrill Lynch badala yake; Barclays haikuweza kupata idhini ya udhibiti wa Uingereza iliyohitajika kabla ya kufunguliwa kwa Jumatatu; na serikali ya Marekani, ambayo ilikuwa imeunga mkono uokoaji wa Bear Stearns mwezi Machi, ilikataa kuhakikisha kitabu cha Lehman. Bila wanunuzi na bila dhamana, kampuni hiyo ilifungua kesi ya Kifungu cha 11 (Chapter 11) katika saa za mapema za Jumatatu, Septemba 15, ikiwa na takriban dola bilioni 600 za mali.

Miezi Kumi na Nane hadi Sifuri: Rekodi ya Lehman

Faili hilo halikushangaza soko la hisa. Ticker ya Lehman yenyewe ilikuwa ikifa hadharani kwa mwaka mmoja na nusu, na mafungo ya mwezi yanaonyesha mteremko wote:

WITH monthly AS (
    SELECT
        formatDateTime(month_start, '%Y-%m') AS month,
        round(argMax(day_close, et_date), 2) AS month_close
    FROM (
        SELECT
            toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
            toStartOfMonth(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS month_start,
            argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS day_close
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'LEH'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2007-01-01 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2008-09-18 00:00:00')
        GROUP BY et_date, month_start
    )
    GROUP BY month_start
)
SELECT
    month,
    month_close,
    round((month_close / max(month_close) OVER () - 1) * 100, 1) AS vs_best_month_close_pct
FROM monthly
ORDER BY month

Mfungo bora zaidi wa mwezi katika kipindi hiki ni safu ya kwanza: $82.17 mnamo 2007-01. Kufikia 2008-03, mwezi ambao Bear Stearns ilishindwa na kuokolewa, LEH ilifunga kwa $37.48, -54.4% chini ya kilele hicho. Agosti 2008 ilimalizika kwa $15.85. Kisha safu ya mwisho: $0.14, -99.8% kutoka juu, kiwango cha mwisho ambacho ghala linashikilia kabla ya ticker kuzima mnamo Septemba 17. Hisa kubwa ya kifedha haiendi kutoka $80 hadi senti katika wikendi moja; kufilisika ilikuwa hatua ya mwisho ya mteremko ambao ticker ilikuwa imeupanga upya mwezi baada ya mwezi.

Siku, kwa mstari mmoja

Huu ndio mwenyewe siku ya kufungua, iliyobanwa kwa mstari mmoja wa risiti, kila dai linalofuata linasoma kutoka humo:

WITH
    (
        SELECT argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2008-09-12 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2008-09-15 04:00:00')
    ) AS prior_rth_close
SELECT
    round(prior_rth_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(toFloat64(argMinIf(open, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)), 2) AS rth_open,
    round((toFloat64(argMinIf(open, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)) / prior_rth_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS gap_pct,
    round(minIf(toFloat64(low), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 2) AS rth_low,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(argMinIf(window_start, (toFloat64(low), toInt64(toUnixTimestamp(window_start))), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS low_et,
    round(maxIf(toFloat64(high), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 2) AS rth_high,
    round(toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)), 2) AS rth_close,
    round((toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)) / prior_rth_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS day_change_pct,
    round((minIf(toFloat64(low), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) / prior_rth_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS low_vs_prior_pct,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS day_shares_m,
    countIf((toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS rth_minute_bars
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2008-09-15 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2008-09-15 23:59:00')

Kutoka kwa kufunga kwa $125.75 Ijumaa, SPY ilifungua kwa $121.81, pengo la kushuka la -3.1%, kali lakini bado si hofu. Hofu ilichukua siku nzima kufika: kiwango cha chini cha $120.14 kilichapishwa saa 15:59 ET, dakika ya mwisho ya kikao. SPY ilifunga kwa $120.34, -4.3% siku hiyo, kwa hisa milioni 465.5. Ajali inayofunga kwa kiwango chake cha chini kabisa ni umbo maalum na la kutisha: hakuna wanunuzi wa punguzo walioingia mbele ya kengele.

Muundo wa kipindi cha biashara

Vipindi vya nusu saa vinaonyesha wapi hasara ilitokea ndani ya siku:

SELECT
    formatDateTime(toStartOfInterval(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'), INTERVAL 30 MINUTE), '%H:%i') AS et_time,
    round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2) AS bucket_close,
    round(min(toFloat64(low)), 2) AS bucket_low,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2008-09-15 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2008-09-15 23:59:00')
  AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
GROUP BY et_time
ORDER BY et_time

Asubuhi ilitulia, ikielea karibu na $123.88 hadi mwisho wa asubuhi. Vipindi vya alasiri vinaelezea hadithi halisi: kurudi kwa bei katikati ya mchana kulisimama kwa $123.13 katika kipindi cha 12:30, na kuanzia saa 14:00 kila nusu saa ilifunga chini ya ile iliyotangulia, $122.4, $121.78, $120.81, $120.34 kwenye rekodi ya mwisho. Hivi ndivyo kipindi cha biashara cha hofu ya kimfumo kinavyoonekana katika vipindi vya nusu saa: si maporomoko moja, bali soko linaloendelea kuuliza swali lile lile na kupata jibu baya zaidi.

Wiki ambayo hakuna mtu anayekumbuka kwa usahihi

Kumbukumbu inasema wiki ya Lehman ilikuwa anguko la moja kwa moja. Rekodi ya soko inapingana:

SELECT
    toString(et_date) AS session,
    close_usd,
    round(if(prev_close = 0, NULL, (close_usd / prev_close - 1) * 100), 1) AS change_pct,
    shares_m,
    tbill_3m_pct,
    y10_pct
FROM (
    SELECT et_date, close_usd, shares_m,
           lagInFrame(close_usd) OVER (ORDER BY et_date ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_close
    FROM (
        SELECT
            toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
            round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 2) AS close_usd,
            round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2008-09-12 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2008-09-19 23:59:00')
        GROUP BY et_date
    )
) s
LEFT JOIN (
    SELECT date, round(toFloat64(yield_3_month), 2) AS tbill_3m_pct, round(toFloat64(yield_10_year), 2) AS y10_pct
    FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
    WHERE date BETWEEN '2008-09-15' AND '2008-09-19'
) t ON s.et_date = t.date
WHERE et_date >= toDate('2008-09-15') AND et_date <= toDate('2008-09-19')
ORDER BY et_date

Jumanne ilifunga 1.3%, Jumatano ilishuka -4.6% (siku ya mkazo wa soko la fedha na AIG), kisha Alhamisi na Ijumaa zilipanda, 3.7% na 3.7%, zikimaliza wiki kwa $125.04, karibu na mahali ilipoanza, kufuatia matangazo ya kwanza ya kile kilichokuwa mpango wa TARP.

Safu za mavuno ya jopo hubeba kile ambacho soko la fedha lilifanya wiki hiyo hiyo. Hati ya Hazina ya miezi 3, kitu kinachoweza kuuzwa karibu zaidi na pesa taslimu, kilikuwa na mavuno ya 1.02% Jumatatu na 0.03% Jumatano, Septemba 17: wawekezaji wakikubali kurudi kwa sifuri kwa miezi mitatu badala ya uhakika wa ulipaji, siku baada ya mfuko wa zamani zaidi wa soko la fedha wa Marekani "kuvunja sarafu" kwenye karatasi yake ya Lehman. Mavuno ya miaka 10 hayakubadilika sana kwa kulinganisha, 3.47% hadi 3.78% kwa wiki nzima, hofu ilikuwa kuhusu siku tisini zijazo, si muongo ujao. Hisa zilimaliza wiki karibu bila mabadiliko; soko la hati lilimaliza wiki kwa kukimbia wazi. Anguko la kweli la hisa lilikuja baadaye, Septemba 29, siku ambayo kura ya kwanza ya TARP ilishindwa katika Baraza la Wawakilishi, ikishika nafasi ya 6 kati ya kila kikao cha SPY katika ghala hili, iliyopokelewa katika jedwali la viwango hapa chini, na pengo la usiku lilichukua mshtuko wa kwanza huku vikao vya baadaye vikichukua hukumu.

Domino nyingine

Lehman hakuanguka peke yake. Kufungwa kwa wiki hiyo hiyo kulikadiria upya kila taasisi iliyokuwa na mali sawa, kwa jina kwa jina:

WITH daily AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
        argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS close_usd
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('AIG', 'MS', 'GS', 'WM', 'C', 'SPY')
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2008-09-12 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2008-09-20 00:00:00')
    GROUP BY ticker, et_date
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(maxIf(close_usd, et_date = toDate('2008-09-12')), 2) AS fri_close,
    round(maxIf(close_usd, et_date = toDate('2008-09-15')), 2) AS mon_close,
    round((maxIf(close_usd, et_date = toDate('2008-09-15')) / maxIf(close_usd, et_date = toDate('2008-09-12')) - 1) * 100, 1) AS mon_pct,
    round(minIf(close_usd, et_date >= toDate('2008-09-15')), 2) AS week_low_close,
    round((minIf(close_usd, et_date >= toDate('2008-09-15')) / maxIf(close_usd, et_date = toDate('2008-09-12')) - 1) * 100, 1) AS low_close_vs_fri_pct,
    round(maxIf(close_usd, et_date = toDate('2008-09-19')), 2) AS fri19_close,
    round((maxIf(close_usd, et_date = toDate('2008-09-19')) / maxIf(close_usd, et_date = toDate('2008-09-12')) - 1) * 100, 1) AS week_pct
FROM daily
GROUP BY ticker
ORDER BY low_close_vs_fri_pct ASC

AIG, iliyobeba kitabu cha ukubwa wa bima cha ulinzi wa mikopo kilichoandikwa kwenye dhamana zile zile za rehani, ilishuka -58.3% siku ya Jumatatu pekee, $12.2 hadi $5.09, na kufunga kwa chini hadi $2.06, -83.1% chini ya Ijumaa, kabla ya Hifadhi ya Shirikisho kuipatia mkopo wa dharura usiku wa Jumanne. Kufunga kwa chini kabisa kwa Morgan Stanley wiki hiyo kulikuwa -43% chini ya Ijumaa na kwa Goldman Sachs -30.1%, benki mbili za mwisho za uwekezaji zinazojitegemea zikifanya biashara kama watakaoingia kwenye foleni. Washington Mutual, benki kubwa zaidi ya akiba nchini, iliingia wiki hiyo tayari ikiwa $2.76 na ikakamatwa na wadhibiti siku kumi baadaye (mnamo Septemba 2008 ishara WM ilikuwa ya benki hiyo; leo inafanya biashara kama Waste Management). Kisha Ijumaa: baada ya SEC kupiga marufuku mauzo ya mfupi katika mamia ya majina ya kifedha kabla ya kufunguliwa, WM ilimaliza wiki ikiwa juu 34.8%, Citigroup juu 12.8%, wakati SPY ilimaliza -0.6% chini ya kufunga kwake Ijumaa iliyopita. Wiki iliyokata tatu kati ya majina sita kwa asilimia thelathini au zaidi kwenye viwango vyao vya chini ilimaliza na mawili kati yao ikiwa kijani, mabadiliko ya sera, yaliyochapishwa kwenye tape.

Ambapo Jumatatu ya Lehman Inasimama Kwa Kweli

Muulize mtu yeyote ataje siku mbaya zaidi ya soko wakati wa mgogoro, na wengi wataelekeza kwenye siku ambayo Lehman ilifungua kesi. Jedwali la viwango linapingana:

WITH daily AS (
    SELECT
        toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
        argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS close_usd
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2003-09-10 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-01-01 00:00:00')
    GROUP BY et_date
),
changes AS (
    SELECT et_date, close_usd,
           lagInFrame(close_usd) OVER (ORDER BY et_date ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_close
    FROM daily
),
ranked AS (
    SELECT
        row_number() OVER (ORDER BY (close_usd / prev_close - 1) ASC, et_date ASC) AS rank,
        toString(et_date) AS session,
        round((close_usd / prev_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS change_pct
    FROM changes
    WHERE prev_close > 0 AND isFinite(close_usd / prev_close)
),
(SELECT any(rank) FROM ranked WHERE session = '2008-09-29') AS tarp_rank_s,
(SELECT countIf(rank <= 10 AND session BETWEEN '2008-09-16' AND '2008-12-31') FROM ranked) AS post_lehman_s
SELECT
    session,
    rank,
    change_pct,
    tarp_rank_s AS tarp_vote_rank,
    post_lehman_s AS post_lehman_2008_top10
FROM ranked
WHERE rank <= 10 OR session = '2008-09-15'
ORDER BY rank

Jumatatu ya Lehman inashika nafasi ya 34 kati ya vipindi vyote vya SPY kuanzia mwishoni mwa 2003 hadi mwisho wa 2025, kwa -4.3%. Nafasi ya kwanza inashikiliwa na ajali ya COVID, -11.6% mnamo 2020-03-16 ndiyo mbaya zaidi, na kwa vuli ya 2008 yenyewe: 6 kati ya vipindi kumi mbaya zaidi hutokea kati ya mwishoni mwa Septemba na mwanzo wa Desemba 2008, kila moja baada ya kesi kufunguliwa. Kushindwa kwa kura ya TARP mnamo 2008-09-29 kunashika nafasi 6, -7%. Ajali moja maarufu haipo kwa sababu ya ujenzi: Jumatatu Nyeusi 1987 inatangulia data ya dakika ya ghala hili, ambayo huanza mwaka 2003, kwa hivyo haiwezi kuonekana kwenye jedwali. Mchoro unaopimika ni wazi: siku ambayo habari inavuja mara chache ndiyo siku ambayo mkanda unavunjika, wiki za baada ya kesi kufunguliwa zilibadilisha bei ya mfumo mzima.

Je, ajali hiyo ilikuwa kubwa kiasi gani?

Ajali ya mwaka 2008 ilikuwa kubwa kiasi gani, na ilichukua muda gani kurejea? Safu moja ya risiti inajibu maswali yote mawili:

WITH daily AS (
    SELECT
        toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
        argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS close_usd
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2007-01-01 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2014-01-01 00:00:00')
    GROUP BY et_date
),
(SELECT argMax(et_date, (close_usd, et_date)) FROM daily WHERE et_date < toDate('2008-09-15')) AS peak_d,
(SELECT argMin(et_date, (close_usd, et_date)) FROM daily WHERE et_date < toDate('2010-01-01')) AS trough_d,
(SELECT max(close_usd) FROM daily WHERE et_date = toDate('2008-09-12')) AS lehman_eve_close,
(SELECT min(et_date) FROM daily WHERE et_date > toDate('2008-09-15') AND close_usd >= lehman_eve_close) AS reclaim_d
SELECT
    toString(peak_d) AS peak_date,
    round(maxIf(close_usd, et_date = peak_d), 2) AS peak_close,
    toString(trough_d) AS trough_date,
    round(maxIf(close_usd, et_date = trough_d), 2) AS trough_close,
    round((maxIf(close_usd, et_date = trough_d) / maxIf(close_usd, et_date = peak_d) - 1) * 100, 1) AS peak_to_trough_pct,
    countIf(et_date > peak_d AND et_date <= trough_d) AS sessions_peak_to_trough,
    round(maxIf(close_usd, et_date = toDate('2008-09-15')), 2) AS lehman_monday_close,
    round((maxIf(close_usd, et_date = toDate('2008-09-15')) / maxIf(close_usd, et_date = peak_d) - 1) * 100, 1) AS peak_to_lehman_pct,
    round((maxIf(close_usd, et_date = trough_d) / maxIf(close_usd, et_date = toDate('2008-09-15')) - 1) * 100, 1) AS trough_vs_lehman_pct,
    toString(reclaim_d) AS lehman_eve_reclaim_date,
    countIf(et_date > toDate('2008-09-15') AND et_date < reclaim_d) AS sessions_until_reclaim
FROM daily

Kuanzia kilele chake cha kabla ya mgogoro cha $156.41 mnamo 2007-10-09, SPY ilishuka hadi $68.07 mnamo 2009-03-09, -56.5% kwa zaidi ya vikao 355 vya biashara. Jumatatu ya Lehman iko katikati ya mteremko huo, si pembeni mwake: kufikia wakati huo wa kufunga, SPY ilikuwa -23.1% chini ya kilele, na sakata la chini lilichapisha -43.4% nyingine chini ya kufunga kwa Jumatatu ya Lehman, miezi mitano na wiki tatu baadaye, sakata la chini la Machi 2009 linabeba kanda kamili ya siku hiyo. Barabara ya kurejea ilikuwa ndefu kuliko anguko: SPY haikufunga juu ya kiwango chake cha kabla ya Ijumaa ya Lehman tena hadi 2010-12-22, na vikao 572 vya biashara katikati. Haya ni marejesho ya bei; gawio lililolipwa njiani lilifanya urejeshaji halisi kuwa mfupi kwa kiasi fulani.

Maswali ya Mara kwa Mara kuhusu Kuanguka kwa Lehman

Soko lilipungua kiasi gani Lehman ilipoanguka?

Siku ya kufungua kesi, Septemba 15, 2008, SPY ilifunga -4.3% chini, ikimalizia kiwango cha chini kabisa cha kikao hicho. Soko la dubu lote lilipima -56.5% kutoka kiwango cha juu cha kufunga cha Oktoba 2007 hadi kiwango cha chini cha kufunga cha Machi 2009.

Nini kilisababisha Lehman Brothers kuanguka?

Mfiduo mkubwa wa rehani uliofanywa kwa kiwango cha takriban thelathini-kwa-mmoja, upunguzaji wa thamani uliokula mtaji wa kampuni katika mwaka wa 2008, na siku kumi za mwisho ambapo kila njia ya kutoka ilifungwa: mazungumzo na Korea Development Bank yalikwisha, Barclays haikuweza kupata idhini ya udhibiti kwa wakati, na serikali ya Marekani ilikataa dhamana. Bila mnunuzi wala hakikisho, Lehman iliwasilisha Kifungu cha 11 mnamo Septemba 15, 2008.

Je, soko lilianguka mara moja wakati wa kufungua?

Lilipungua -3.1% wakati wa kufungua na kisha likashikilia utulivu wa kushangaza asubuhi. Uuzaji uliongezeka alasiri na haukukoma, kiwango cha chini cha siku kilichapishwa katika dakika ya mwisho ya biashara.

Je, Lehman ilikuwa chini kabisa ya ajali ya 2008?

Si karibu. SPY iliendelea kushuka kwa zaidi ya miezi mitano; kiwango cha chini kilichapishwa 2009-03-09 kwa $68.07, -43.4% chini ya kufunga kwa Jumatatu ya Lehman. Kiwango cha chini cha Machi 2009 kinashikilia rekodi ya siku hiyo.

Ajali ya 2008 inalinganishwaje na ajali ya COVID ya 2020?

2020 ilikuwa ya haraka zaidi; 2008 ilikuwa ya kina zaidi na ikadumu muda mrefu zaidi. Machi 2020 ina kikao kibaya zaidi cha SPY katika data hii (-11.6% mnamo 2020-03-16), lakini kushuka kwa 2008 kulichukua 355 vikao vya biashara kutoka kilele hadi chini, takriban miezi kumi na saba, ikilinganishwa na wiki chache katika Machi 2020.

Kila paneli hapo juu ni swala lililohifadhiwa na lenye matoleo juu ya rekodi ya kihistoria, panua SQL ili kuona kila kipimo. Unataka kuhisi siku hii badala ya kuisoma? Ni moja ya matukio yanayoweza kuchezwa katika simulator ya biashara ya Strasmore Labs.