Covered Calls on AAPL: A Worked Example
Covered calls on AAPL, worked end to end with real option data: premium, static return, return if called, breakeven, and how often the call finished ITM.
Deep Dives
Forensic, single-subject investigations into individual stocks, events, and market-structure quirks.
Iron Condor Win Rate and Expectancy
Iron condor win rate comes off the two short deltas. Expectancy comes from credit versus width. See the breakeven win rate for nine real structures.
Gold vs Real Interest Rates: Does It Hold?
Do gold and real interest rates move inversely? We measure the rolling 12-month correlation of GLD against the 10-year real yield, and show where it broke.
Gold Miner Covered Call ETFs: Yield vs Upside
Gold miner covered call ETFs quote the biggest yields in the income aisle. Here is the measured GDX and GDXJ volatility behind them, and the upside they cap.
Does IPO GMP Predict Listing Gains?
Does IPO GMP predict listing gains? The grey market premium has no order book and no audit trail. Here is how to score it against the discovered open.
How Much Volume Trades at the Close
How much volume trades at the close? We measure the closing auction's share of consolidated daily volume for NYSE and Nasdaq names, day type by day type.
Did Stocks Take 25 Years to Recover From 1929?
Did stocks take 25 years to recover from 1929? Yes in nominal price terms, no with dividends reinvested. Three breakeven dates, and why the gap matters.
January Barometer: Does It Actually Work?
Does the January Barometer work? We score January's sign against the base rate of positive years over full history, and again with January excluded.
Implied Volatility Heatmap: How to Read It
An implied volatility heatmap puts moneyness on one axis and expiry on the other. Read a row for skew, a column for term structure, with live SQL.
When Historical Market Data Gets Revised
Historical market data gets revised: how a daylight saving bug dropped after-hours bars, the four revision types, and the record that keeps results checkable.
One API for Kalshi and Polymarket: 4 Gaps
One API for Kalshi and Polymarket sounds simple. See the four fields a unified schema flattens: tick size, collateral, settlement authority, fees.
How Long a Market Order Takes to Fill
How long does a market order take to fill? The millisecond timeline from click to print, and how to read the Rule 605 speed stats brokers publish.
PEP Dividend History: Every Payment by Year
PEP dividend history in full: every PepsiCo payment with its declaration, ex, record and pay dates, plus annual totals and year over year growth rates.
Backtesting in Illiquid Markets: Fill Models
Backtesting in illiquid markets: how three fill models change the same strategy's reported return, and the checks that tell an artifact from an edge.
Do Volume Indicators Predict Anything?
Do volume indicators predict anything? We code OBV and VPT as published, define a falsifiable divergence rule, and measure forward returns against a baseline.
Is the Market a Random Walk? Real Returns
Is the market a random walk? Twenty years of daily SPY returns, measured: the statistics that cannot tell real from simulated, and the two that always can.
Stocks With the Biggest IV-RV Gap
Which stocks have the biggest IV-RV gap? We rank 30-day implied volatility against the realized volatility that followed, with the full method shown.
How to Read an Event Contract Ladder
An event contract ladder is a row of threshold prices. Difference the legs into bucket odds, normalise, and read the implied mean and a rough interval.
Index Rebalance Day and the Closing Auction
Index rebalance day puts the year's biggest size through the closing auction. How the S&P and Russell rebalances print, with measured volume multiples.
Event Contracts vs Stock Options
Event contracts vs stock options, worked on one matched pair: a YES at 70 cents against the call vertical that costs the same and caps at the same place.
Self-Help Declarations Under Reg NMS Rule 611
Self-help declarations let one venue route around another's broken quote under Reg NMS. What changes for ISOs, and why the tape can print an impossible NBBO.
Mass Cancels and Purge Ports Explained
How fast can a market maker pull every quote? Inside mass cancel messages, dedicated purge ports, cancel on disconnect, and the gateway queue in the way.
Warren Buffett's Index Put Trade Explained
Warren Buffett's index put trade in full: the four indexes, the $4.9bn premium, the collateral terms, and the accounting that swung earnings by billions.
On-the-Run vs Off-the-Run Treasuries
On-the-run vs off-the-run Treasuries: what makes the newest auction issue the benchmark, why it yields less, and how buybacks target seasoned bonds.
What Is the 5s30s Spread? 20 Years of Data
The 5s30s spread is the 30-year Treasury yield minus the 5-year. See 20 years of monthly history, every inversion with dates and depth, and how to read it.
Compressing Market Data: zstd vs gzip
Compressing market data: zstd vs gzip benchmarked in a fresh container, why sorted tick files shrink so far, and when gzip is still the right pick.
What Happens After a Big One-Day Gain
What happens after a big one-day gain? We measured the top 20 gainers in every session for three years: next-day medians, means, gap-and-fade rates.
Do Stocks Move as Much as Options Predict?
Do stocks move as much as options predict? We scored the earnings implied move against the realized move, print by print, across sixteen household large caps.
When a Spread Expires Between the Strikes
When a spread expires between the strikes, the short leg is exercised and the long leg dies worthless. How often that happens on SPY, and the fix by 4 p.m.
How to Pick an Option Strike Price by Delta
How to pick an option strike price: what each delta band actually pays, and how often delta matched the realized share of contracts that finished ITM.
AI Trading Bots and Real Brokerage Orders
An AI trading bot faces the same account rulebook as a human: day trade counting, unsettled cash, options tiers, partial fills, and halts. Here is each one.
SPY vs VOO vs SPLG: What Actually Differs
SPY vs VOO vs SPLG all track the S&P 500. Compare fees, the UIT cash drag, spreads and options access, with a decision rule by holding period and order size.
JNJ Dividend Increase History by Year
JNJ dividend increase history year by year: every raise in cents and percent, the month it lands, the 5, 10 and 20 year growth rates, and the payout ratio.
LEAPS vs Margin Loan: The Financing Cost
Buying a deep ITM LEAPS is a loan in disguise. Here is how to read the implied financing rate from put call parity and weigh it against margin rates.
Figma Lockup Expiration: FIG on the Tape
Figma's lockup expiration came in five stages from September 2025 to August 2026. Here is every release date and what the FIG tape did around each one.
DAX Options Settlement Price: ODAX vs ODAP
How the DAX options settlement price is fixed: the 13:00 CET Xetra auction for ODAX, the 17:30 close for ODAP, and why the chart price does not decide.
VZ vs T Dividend: Yield, Growth, Coverage
Verizon vs AT&T dividend compared: trailing yield, ten years of per share history, growth by year, payout and coverage, plus both dividend calendars.
When Covered Calls Trigger the Straddle Rules
Stock plus a short call is the statutory shape of a straddle. Learn when covered calls stay inside the qualified covered call exception and when they fail.
Latency Models in HFT Backtests Explained
Latency models in HFT backtests decide which fills are real. See how feed delay and order entry delay differ, and what a zero latency fill quietly hides.
Market Making in Prediction Markets
How market makers quote prediction markets: why a payoff capped at $1 makes inventory risk computable up front, and why spreads widen into resolution.
What Is the Gamma Flip Level?
The gamma flip level is the price where estimated dealer gamma crosses zero. How it is built from strike gamma and open interest, and how to check one.
GLD Implied Volatility, Explained
What is a normal GLD implied volatility? A five year ATM IV series for the gold ETF, its percentile range, and how its 25 delta skew differs from SPY.
Leveraged ETF Rebalancing Into the Close
Leveraged ETF rebalancing lands in the closing auction every day. The daily reset arithmetic, and why that flow arrives price insensitive at the bell.
The Open-Source TradingView Optimizer
The open-source TradingView optimizer grid searches strategy inputs and ranks the winner. Here is the overstatement it never prints, worked on real data.
Investing at All-Time Highs: What the Data Says
Should you invest at an all-time high? Every SPY record close on file, with the forward returns that followed and the deepest drawdown that began from one.
Stock Returns After the First Fed Rate Hike
S&P 500 returns 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the first Fed rate hike of the 2004, 2015 and 2022 cycles, from daily SPY closes, plus what the yield curve did.
What Happens When the Yield Curve Un-Inverts
What happens when the yield curve un-inverts: each 2s10s un-inversion on record, the spread and SPY 3, 6 and 12 months later, bull vs bear steepener labeled.
Upcoming IPO Lockup Expirations: Next 90 Days
A refreshed calendar of upcoming IPO lockup expirations for US listings in the next 90 days: listing date, 180-day date, and each close versus offer price.
Upcoming Dividend Payment Dates: Next 2 Weeks
Upcoming dividend payment dates for the next two weeks, large caps first, with each stock's ex-date, record date, pay date, cash amount and ex-to-pay gap.
Stock Split Candidates: Who Might Split Next?
Stock split candidates ranked by share price: the large caps above $500 paired with the price each split at last time, plus the names that never split.
IV Term Structure: What the Curve Tells You
The IV term structure is implied volatility plotted by expiration. See what upward sloping and inverted curves mean, with real option data on the shape.
Expected Move From Implied Volatility
Expected move is price times IV times the square root of days over 365. See the formula, the straddle shortcut that matches it, and what realized moves did.
AM vs PM Settled Index Options Explained
AM settled index options settle off Friday's opening quotation and stop trading Thursday. PM settled options run to the close. The gap between them, measured.
Verizon's Dividend Increase History
Verizon's dividend increase history: a long streak of raises, and why it is not a dividend king. See the per share record and the size of each raise.
What Is Gamma Exposure (GEX)? Dealer Hedging
Gamma exposure, or GEX, estimates the hedging dealers do as prices move. See the calculation, the assumptions it rests on, and why free GEX numbers differ.
Covered Call ETFs: the Real Tradeoff
Covered call ETFs sell index calls and pay the premium out monthly. See where that distribution really comes from, and how total return behaves by year.
Does Dividend Capture Actually Work?
Dividend capture buys before the ex dividend date and sells after. See how far prices really open down, and what stacks up against the dividend collected.
How Earnings Move Option Greeks
Pin one real Tesla call through its Q1 earnings 8-K and watch implied volatility, price and delta move as the result lands and the IV crush follows.
Why Some Options Cost So Much More
Two nearly identical options can carry wildly different prices. Implied volatility is why: the market's priced-in expected move, mapped across six names.
How Markets Recover From Crashes
Every S&P 500 crash since 2016 recovered. We charted the market's underwater history: how deep the drawdowns ran, how often, and where it stands now.
What Missing the Best Days Costs
Time in the market beats timing it: missing the best days since 2016 turned a big SPY gain into a small one, and the best days hide inside the worst selloffs.
Buy When Others Are Fearful: The Data
Warren Buffett said be greedy when others are fearful. We built a fear gauge from real news sentiment and tested whether fearful days beat the market.
The Options Collar: A Cheap Hedge
A collar hedges a concentrated stock cheaply: own the shares, buy a put for a floor, sell a call for a cap. We trace a real SPY collar through June's selloff.
Covered Calls: Income on Your Shares
A covered call sells a call against stock you own for premium income. We trace one real SPY call to show the income and the capped-upside tradeoff.
Deep ITM LEAPS: Stock Replacement
A deep-ITM LEAPS call stands in for 100 shares at a fraction of the cash. We trace one real SPY LEAPS through its deep in-the-money life to show the trade.
What Are Call Options?
A call option is the right to buy 100 shares at a set strike before expiry. Follow one real SPY call through its whole life to watch leverage and decay work.
COVID Crash 2020: Four Halts, Peak to Trough
The COVID crash of 2020, receipted: the March 9 halt minutes missing from the tape, four circuit breakers in eight days, and the peak-to-trough map on SPY.
The 2011 US Downgrade: Black Monday's Tape
August 8, 2011: the first trading day after S&P stripped the US of its AAA rating. The tape fell all day and closed near the low, with the receipts inside.
Tesla's Bitcoin 10-K: Feb 8, 2021 on the Tape
Tesla's $1.5B bitcoin purchase, receipted: the Feb 8, 2021 filing and session tape, the sympathy rally in bitcoin stocks, the options shrug, and the 2022 exit.
SK Hynix's Nasdaq Debut, Measured
SK Hynix's Nasdaq debut, measured: a $28B raise (2026's second-largest), an $18B first tape, day-one short volume, and the memory trade re-ranked.
NVDA's May 2023 Earnings: The AI Gap
May 25, 2023: NVIDIA's guidance shocked Wall Street after the close and the stock opened 26% higher. The overnight gap that started the AI supercycle trade.
March 9, 2009: The Bottom, On the Tape
March 9, 2009 was the exact bottom of the financial crisis, and the tape shows a quiet, unremarkable Monday. What generational lows actually look like up close.
Lehman's Collapse: The 2008 Tape, Replayed
September 15, 2008: Lehman filed and SPY closed on its low. LEH's eighteen-month death spiral, the whipsaw week, and the full crash, panel by panel.
The 2010 Flash Crash, Minute by Minute
May 6, 2010: about a trillion dollars of market value vanished and mostly returned inside 36 minutes. The minute tape of the flash crash, receipted.
NVDA: Sit-Out, Then Surge, Week of July 6
NVDA's week of July 6, 2026: green through the rout, red on the rally, then the tape's heaviest name by Friday. Five sessions, with every number receipted.
SPCX: The Week It Went Underwater
SPCX's week of July 6, 2026: the index-add flow left, three of five closes printed under the June first-trade price, and Friday set a new post-listing low.
SPCX: SpaceX Stock Price Decline From Peak
How far SpaceX stock (SPCX) sits below its June 16, 2026 peak, measured to the latest close: the session path, spreads, options flow, and SEC filings.
Treasury Yield Curve, H1 2026: Twist, Not Shift
H1 2026 Treasury yield curve review: a twist that lifted the belly while both ends held, a 2s10s spread that never inverted, and the 30-year's brush with 5%.
The Best and Worst Thousand Dollars of June 2026
June's best options contract returned 495x; selling that same contract lost 494,000 dollars on a thousand of premium. The full hindsight ledger. Not advice.
Sector Scorecard H1 2026: Winners and Losers
All eleven S&P 500 sector ETFs ranked for H1 2026: the winners and losers, the Q1-to-Q2 rotation, breadth inside each sector, and what each costs to trade.
NVDA: NVIDIA's Full June 2026, Tick by Tick
NVIDIA's June 2026 in full: a $235 pre-market peak, a 7.4% slide across 21 sessions, and the fourth-biggest dollar volume on the US tape.
SPCX: SpaceX's First Month on the Public Market
SpaceX's June 2026 debut as SPCX, receipt by receipt: a delayed opening cross, a top-of-tape dollar-volume run, spread seasoning, day-three options, and shorts.