Je, hisa inapanda baada ya kugawanywa?

Mgawanyiko wa hisa huongeza idadi ya hisa za kampuni na kugawa bei yake kwa kipengele kile kile, hivyo hisa ya $600 inayogawanyika kwa uwiano wa tatu-kwa-moja huwa hisa tatu za $200 zenye thamani hasa ile iliyokuwa nayo. Je, hisa hiyo baadaye inapanda? Kwa wastani imepanda, kidogo, lakini chini ya soko. Katika mamia ya mgawanyiko wa mbele kuanzia 2016 hadi 2025, hisa ya kawaida ilichelewa nyuma ya S&P 500 katika miezi mitatu baada ya kugawanywa, katika kipindi kimoja kimoja kilichopimwa. Mabadiliko makubwa zaidi ya bei yalitangulia mgawanyiko, hayakufuata.

Mgawanyiko unafanya nini, na hafanyi nini

Mbinu haibadilishi thamani. Mgawanyiko wa mbele hupunguza bei na kuongeza idadi ya hisa kwa kiwango kile kile, na hakuna kitu kinachobadilika katika biashara usiku uliopita. Mambo mawili tofauti hujumuishwa katika wazo la "mlipuko wa mgawanyiko": kupanda kunakotangulia mgawanyiko, na kile ambacho hisa hufanya baadaye. Utafiti huu unapima kile cha pili moja kwa moja, kuanzia tarehe ya utekelezaji wa mgawanyiko, na unakitenganisha na kile cha kwanza. Tarehe ya tangazo, ambapo kazi ya kitaaluma imegundua mwitikio mdogo, huja wiki chache kabla na tayari imejumuishwa kwenye bei kufikia tarehe ya utekelezaji inayopimwa hapa.

Kupanda kunatokea kabla ya mgawanyiko

Mgawanyiko maarufu zaidi wa hivi karibuni unaonyesha umbo hili, kila moja ukipimwa kwa muda wa miezi sita unaoingia kwenye mgawanyiko wake na miezi mitatu inayotoka.

WITH
cohort AS (
    SELECT ticker, max(execution_date) AS ex,
           argMax(concat(toString(split_to), '-for-', toString(split_from)), execution_date) AS ratio
    FROM global_markets.stocks_splits
    WHERE ticker IN ('NVDA', 'AVGO', 'NFLX', 'AMZN', 'GOOGL', 'AAPL', 'TSLA')
      AND split_to >= 2 * split_from
      AND adjustment_type IN ('forward_split', 'stock_dividend')
      AND execution_date >= '2020-01-01' AND execution_date <= '2026-01-31'
    GROUP BY ticker
),
bars AS (
    SELECT ticker, toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)) AS px
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE (ticker IN (SELECT ticker FROM cohort) OR ticker = 'SPY')
      AND window_start >= '2019-06-01 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-14 00:00:00'
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY ticker, d
),
series AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           arrayMap(x -> x.1, arraySort(x -> x.1, groupArray((d, px)))) AS days,
           arrayMap(x -> x.2, arraySort(x -> x.1, groupArray((d, px)))) AS prices
    FROM bars GROUP BY ticker
),
spy AS (SELECT days AS sd, prices AS sp FROM series WHERE ticker = 'SPY')
SELECT c.ticker AS ticker,
       c.ratio AS ratio,
       toString(c.ex) AS ex_date,
       round((s.prices[indexOf(s.days, c.ex) - 1] / s.prices[indexOf(s.days, c.ex) - 1 - 126] - 1) * 100, 1) AS run_up_before_pct,
       round((s.prices[indexOf(s.days, c.ex) + 63] / s.prices[indexOf(s.days, c.ex)] - 1) * 100, 1) AS after_3mo_pct,
       round((spy.sp[indexOf(spy.sd, c.ex) + 63] / spy.sp[indexOf(spy.sd, c.ex)] - 1) * 100, 1) AS spy_3mo_pct
FROM cohort c INNER JOIN series s ON s.ticker = c.ticker CROSS JOIN spy
WHERE indexOf(s.days, c.ex) > 130 AND length(s.prices) >= indexOf(s.days, c.ex) + 63
ORDER BY run_up_before_pct DESC

NVDA ilipanda kwa 165.6% katika miezi sita kabla ya mgawanyiko wake wa 10-for-1, na AAPL ilipanda kwa 67%. Kupanda hakujajumla: AMZN, GOOGL, na NFLX ziliingia kwenye migawanyiko yake na faida za miezi sita za -28.8%, -21%, na -6.6%. Kile ambacho karibu hakuna moja kati ya saba ilifanya ni kumshinda soko baadaye. NVDA ilirejesha -11.2% katika miezi mitatu baada ya mgawanyiko wake ikilinganishwa na 2.5% ya S&P 500, na sehemu kubwa ya kikundi ilichelewa nyuma ya faharasa katika kipindi kile kile.

Je, hisa inapanda baada ya mgawanyiko? Rekodi inaonyesha chini ya soko

Majina saba hayathibitishi chochote, hivyo hapa kuna kila mgawanyiko wa mbele wenye umaji kuanzia 2016 hadi 2025 (mgawanyiko wa hisa wa mbili-kwa-moja au zaidi, wenye bei juu ya $30 unapoingia), umewekwa katika vikundi vya kipindi tatu. Kwa kila kipindi, faida ya miezi mitatu ya hisa ya wastani baada ya mgawanyiko inawekwa karibu na ile ya S&P 500 katika dirisha sawa.

WITH
cohort AS (
    SELECT ticker, min(execution_date) AS ex
    FROM global_markets.stocks_splits
    WHERE adjustment_type IN ('forward_split', 'stock_dividend') AND split_to >= 2 * split_from
      AND execution_date >= '2016-01-01' AND execution_date <= '2025-12-31' AND ticker != 'SPCX'
    GROUP BY ticker, execution_date
),
bars AS (
    SELECT ticker, toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)) AS px
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE (ticker IN (SELECT ticker FROM cohort) OR ticker = 'SPY')
      AND window_start >= '2015-06-01 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-02-01 00:00:00'
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY ticker, d
),
series AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           arrayMap(x -> x.1, arraySort(x -> x.1, groupArray((d, px)))) AS days,
           arrayMap(x -> x.2, arraySort(x -> x.1, groupArray((d, px)))) AS prices
    FROM bars GROUP BY ticker
),
spy AS (SELECT days AS sd, prices AS sp FROM series WHERE ticker = 'SPY'),
fwd AS (
    SELECT ex,
        (prices[i0 - 1] / prices[i0 - 1 - 126] - 1) * 100 AS run_up,
        (prices[i0 + 63] / prices[i0] - 1) * 100 AS ret,
        (sp[j0 + 63] / sp[j0] - 1) * 100 AS spy_ret
    FROM (
        SELECT c.ex AS ex, indexOf(s.days, c.ex) AS i0, indexOf(spy.sd, c.ex) AS j0,
               s.prices AS prices, spy.sp AS sp
        FROM cohort c INNER JOIN series s ON s.ticker = c.ticker CROSS JOIN spy
    )
    WHERE i0 > 130 AND length(prices) >= i0 + 63 AND prices[i0] > 0 AND prices[i0 - 1] >= 30
)
SELECT multiIf(toYear(ex) <= 2019, '2016-2019', toYear(ex) <= 2023, '2020-2023', '2024-2025') AS period,
    count() AS splits,
    round(median(run_up), 1) AS median_runup_before_pct,
    round(median(ret), 1) AS median_after_3mo_pct,
    round(median(spy_ret), 1) AS median_spy_3mo_pct,
    round(median(ret - spy_ret), 1) AS median_gap_vs_spy_pct,
    round(100.0 * countIf(ret > spy_ret) / count(), 0) AS pct_beat_spy
FROM fwd GROUP BY period ORDER BY period

Vipindi vitatu vinasimulia hadithi moja. Katika 2016-2019 hisa ya wastani iliyogawanywa ilirejesha 1.8% katika miezi mitatu baada ya utekelezaji, ikilinganishwa na 3.8% ya S&P 500. Katika 2020-2023 ilikuwa 1% ikilinganishwa na 4.9%. Katika 2024-2025, 0% ikilinganishwa na 3.3%. Imebaki sawa hadi iliyopanda kiasi kila wakati, na chini ya faharasa kila wakati. Chini ya nusu ya migawanyiko ilishinda soko katika dirisha lolote, kati ya 37% na 41%. Kupanda kabla kulikuwa ni mabadiliko makubwa zaidi kila wakati, wastani wa 10.6% hadi 17.1%.

Kwa nini "hisa zinaendelea kupanda baada ya mgawanyiko" haistahimi

Mgawanyiko hubadilisha idadi ya hisa na bei kwa kipengele kile kile na hakitu kingine, hivyo faida yoyote baadaye ingetoka kwa aina ya kampuni inayogawanya, si kutokana na mgawanyiko wenyewe. Kampuni zinazogawanya ni washindi wa awali kwa asili, na katika data kikundi hicho hakikuongeza uongozi wake mara baada ya kugawanywa: katika kila kipindi tangu 2016 wastani amechelewa nyuma ya soko katika robo iliyofuata. Mgawanyiko wa nyuma, ambao hutokea kwa hisa zinazoshuka, unafuatiwa na udhaifu zaidi kwa wastani. Vyote viwili vinaonyesha upande ule ule. Kile ambacho hisa ilifanya kabla ya mgawanyiko hakijabeza faida inayoshinda soko baada ya mgawanyiko.

Maswali Yanayoulizwa Mara kwa Mara

Je, hisa inapanda baada ya mgawanyiko wa hisa?

Kwa wastani imepanda kidogo, lakini chini ya soko. Katika migawanyiko ya mbele yenye umaji kuanzia 2016 hadi 2025 hisa ya wastani ilirejesha kati ya 0% na 1.8% katika miezi mitatu iliyofuata, ikiwa nyuma ya S&P 500 katika kila kipindi, na chini ya nusu ilishinda faharasa.

Je, ninapaswa kununua hisa kabla au baada ya kugawanywa?

Mgawanyiko wenyewe haukuwa na faida yoyote. Mabadiliko makubwa zaidi ya bei yalitangulia, kupanda kwa wastani hadi 17.1%, na faida baadaye ilichelewa nyuma ya soko katika kila kipindi tangu 2016. Mgawanyiko hubadilisha thamani ya hisa.

Kwa nini hisa mara nyingi hupanda kabla ya mgawanyiko?

Hisa inafikia bei ya kutosha ya kuzingatia kugawanywa tu baada ya kuongezeka thamani, hivyo kupanda hupendelea kutangulia mgawanyiko kwa asili. Bodi mara nyingi hutangaza mgawanyiko baada ya kipindi kizuri ili kushusha bei kwa kila hisa.

Je, migawanyiko ya hisa huunda thamani?

Hapana. Mgawanyiko wa mbele huongeza hisa na kugawa bei kwa kipengele kile kile, akiacha thamani ya soko ya kampuni na sehemu ya kila mmiliki bila mabadiliko. Ni mabadiliko ya vitengo, siyo ya thamani.

Ni hisa zipi kubwa zimegawanywa hivi karibuni?

NVDA (10-for-1), AAPL, na majina mengine kwenye paneli hapo juu yote yaligawanywa katika miaka ya hivi karibuni. Nyingi zilikuwa zimepanda kabla, na nyingi zilichelewa nyuma ya S&P 500 katika miezi mitatu baada ya kugawanywa.

Kila paneli hapo juu ni swali lililohifadhiwa, linaloweza kukaguliwa. Fungua SQL chini ya chati yoyote ili kuliukagua, au endesha jaribio sawa la kabla-na-baada kwenye mgawanyiko wowote kwenye rekodi katika kituo cha Strasmore.