Wakati makampuni yanapotangaza ongezeko la dividend

Makampuni hutangaza ongezeko la dividend katika mzunguko wa kila mwaka, na mengi yao hutangaza katika mwezi uleule kila mwaka. Bodi ya wakurugenzi kuidhinisha kiwango kipya katika mkutano uliopangwa, kampuni hutoa tangazo, na malipo ya juu zaidi huonekana katika ex-dividend date inayofuata. Jibu la kweli kwa swali kuhusu ongezeko lijalo la dividend ni kiwango cha msingi kilichojengwa kutokana na historia ya matangazo. Ukurasa huu hujenga kiwango hicho cha msingi: kalenda ya ongezeko la soko, mwezi ambao kila kampuni inayokuza dividend imekuwa ikitumia, jinsi mwezi huo ulivyozingatiwa kwa ukaribu, na nini husababisha mabadiliko yake.

Kila paneli iliyo hapa chini inasoma rekodi ya dividend iliyowasilishwa katika global_markets.stocks_dividends na inategemea declaration_date, tarehe ambayo uamuzi wa bodi uliwekwa wazi kwa umma, badala ya ex-dividend date au tarehe ya malipo. Ongezeko huhesabiwa wakati kiasi cha pesa taslimu cha robo mwaka cha kampuni kinapokuwa juu ya kiasi cha robo mwaka iliyopita, kwa tofauti ya robo moja.

Ni lini makampuni hutangaza ongezeko la dividend?

Anza na soko zima. Kila mlipaji wa kila robo mwaka aliyepo kwenye kumbukumbu tangu katikati ya mwaka 2015, amepangwa kulingana na mwezi wa kalenda wa tangazo hilo:

WITH quarterly AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           ex_dividend_date,
           round(max(toFloat64(cash_amount)), 4) AS amount,
           max(declaration_date) AS declared
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE distribution_type = 'recurring'
      AND frequency = 4
      AND cash_amount > 0
      AND declaration_date > toDate('2015-06-30')
      AND ex_dividend_date >= toDate('2015-07-01')
      AND ex_dividend_date <= toDate('2026-07-31')
    GROUP BY ticker, ex_dividend_date
),
stepped AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           declared,
           amount,
           ex_dividend_date,
           lagInFrame(amount, 1) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY ex_dividend_date ASC
                                       ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prior_amount,
           lagInFrame(ex_dividend_date, 1) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY ex_dividend_date ASC
                                       ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prior_ex_date
    FROM quarterly
)
SELECT formatDateTimeInJodaSyntax(declared, 'MMM') AS month_label,
       count() AS raises,
       uniqExact(ticker) AS companies
FROM stepped
WHERE prior_amount > 0
  AND amount > prior_amount * 1.005
  AND dateDiff('day', prior_ex_date, ex_dividend_date) BETWEEN 45 AND 200
GROUP BY month_label
ORDER BY raises DESC

Mwezi wenye shughuli nyingi zaidi za matangazo ni Jan, ukiwa na ongezeko la 8287 kutoka kwa makampuni 1872. Dec na Feb yanafuata. Mwezi mtulivu zaidi, Aug, bado una 1428. Miezi yote 12 ina matangazo, kwa hivyo kalenda ina mabadiliko badala ya kujikita katika dirisha moja pekee.

Kwa nini mwezi uleule hurudi kila mwaka

Viwango vya dividend huwekwa na bodi ya wakurugenzi, na bodi hukutana kwa mujibu wa ratiba iliyochapishwa. Makampuni mengi ya Marekani hupitia upya malipo hayo mara moja kwa mwaka, katika mkutano unaofuata mwisho wa mwaka wa fedha au ule ulio karibu na mkutano mkuu wa wanahisa, na mapitio hayo hubaki katika nafasi yake kwenye kalenda kwa muda wote ambao ratiba hiyo inafuatwa.

Mbinu nyingine mbili huimarisha utaratibu huu. Kampuni inayofuatilia mfululizo wa ongezeko la dividend ina motisha ya kuhifadhi kumbukumbu ya tarehe hiyo, na mzunguko wa malipo yenyewe umewekwa: kampuni inayolipa kila robo mwaka ina vipindi vinne kwa mwaka, na kwa kawaida ni kimoja tu kati ya hivyo hubeba kiwango kipya. Kalenda za fedha ndizo msingi wa makampuni mengi yanayoonekana kutofuata mtiririko wa kawaida. Kampuni ambayo mwaka wake wa fedha huishia mwezi Juni huweka kiwango chake katika robo tofauti na ile inayofunga hesabu zake mwezi Desemba, na mwezi wake wa kuongeza malipo hutokea robo moja au mbili mbali na makampuni mengine.

Ni mwezi upi kila kampuni inayoongeza dividend hutumia?

Majina kumi na mawili yanayofahamika vyema yenye rekodi ndefu ya malipo, yaliyopangwa kulingana na jinsi ongezeko lao linavyofuata mwezi mmoja mahususi:

WITH quarterly AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           ex_dividend_date,
           round(max(toFloat64(cash_amount)), 4) AS amount,
           max(declaration_date) AS declared
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE ticker IN ('JNJ','KO','PG','PEP','MCD','WMT','CVX','XOM','MMM','CAT','HD','ADP')
      AND distribution_type = 'recurring'
      AND frequency = 4
      AND cash_amount > 0
      AND declaration_date > toDate('2015-06-30')
      AND ex_dividend_date >= toDate('2015-07-01')
      AND ex_dividend_date <= toDate('2026-07-31')
    GROUP BY ticker, ex_dividend_date
),
stepped AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           declared,
           amount,
           ex_dividend_date,
           lagInFrame(amount, 1) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY ex_dividend_date ASC
                                       ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prior_amount,
           lagInFrame(ex_dividend_date, 1) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY ex_dividend_date ASC
                                       ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prior_ex_date
    FROM quarterly
),
raises AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           formatDateTimeInJodaSyntax(declared, 'MMM') AS month_label,
           toMonth(declared) AS month_index
    FROM stepped
    WHERE prior_amount > 0
      AND amount > prior_amount * 1.005
      AND dateDiff('day', prior_ex_date, ex_dividend_date) BETWEEN 45 AND 200
),
per_month AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           month_label,
           month_index,
           count() AS raises_in_month
    FROM raises
    GROUP BY ticker, month_label, month_index
)
SELECT ticker,
       argMax(month_label, raises_in_month * 100 + month_index) AS typical_month,
       sum(raises_in_month) AS raises_total,
       max(raises_in_month) AS raises_in_typical_month,
       round(100 * max(raises_in_month) / sum(raises_in_month)) AS same_month_pct
FROM per_month
GROUP BY ticker
HAVING sum(raises_in_month) >= 5
ORDER BY same_month_pct DESC, raises_total DESC

HD iko kileleni mwa jedwali: 11 ya ongezeko lake la 11 tangu mwaka 2016 lilitangazwa mwezi Feb, ikiwa ni kiwango cha mafanikio cha 100%. Kwa upande wa chini, XOM hufanya hivyo katika mwezi wake wa kawaida wa Oct kwa 44% ya wakati. Soma mwezi wa kawaida kama kiwango cha msingi kwa kampuni moja, si kama ratiba. Hii inafupisha kile ambacho miongo kadhaa ya mikutano ya bodi imefanya. Haina taarifa yoyote kuhusu uamuzi ambao haujafanywa.

Mgawanyo huo ni mgawanyo wa kazi katika kundi hili. Mabingwa wa ukuaji wa dividend inashughulikia nani anayemiliki rekodi ndefu zaidi, ongezeko na upunguzaji wa dividend inaripoti kile kilichotokea tayari kwa malipo, na ukurasa huu unajibu ni lini matangazo hayo yanatolewa.

Je, mwezi huu unashikilia kiasi gani?

Chukua kila ongezeko la soko linalofuata ongezeko lingine kati ya siku mia mbili hamsini na mia nne themanini zilizopita, yaani mzunguko wa mwaka, na uulize kama mwezi wa kalenda uliendana:

WITH quarterly AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           ex_dividend_date,
           round(max(toFloat64(cash_amount)), 4) AS amount,
           max(declaration_date) AS declared
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE distribution_type = 'recurring'
      AND frequency = 4
      AND cash_amount > 0
      AND declaration_date > toDate('2015-06-30')
      AND ex_dividend_date >= toDate('2015-07-01')
      AND ex_dividend_date <= toDate('2026-07-31')
    GROUP BY ticker, ex_dividend_date
),
stepped AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           declared,
           amount,
           ex_dividend_date,
           lagInFrame(amount, 1) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY ex_dividend_date ASC
                                       ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prior_amount,
           lagInFrame(ex_dividend_date, 1) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY ex_dividend_date ASC
                                       ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prior_ex_date
    FROM quarterly
),
raises AS (
    SELECT ticker, declared
    FROM stepped
    WHERE prior_amount > 0
      AND amount > prior_amount * 1.005
      AND dateDiff('day', prior_ex_date, ex_dividend_date) BETWEEN 45 AND 200
),
chained AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           declared,
           lagInFrame(declared, 1) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY declared ASC
                                         ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prior_declared
    FROM raises
)
SELECT toYear(declared) AS year,
       uniqExact(ticker) AS companies,
       round(100 * countIf(toMonth(declared) = toMonth(prior_declared)) / count(), 1) AS same_month_pct,
       round(100 * countIf(abs(toInt32(toRelativeMonthNum(declared))
                               - toInt32(toRelativeMonthNum(prior_declared)) - 12) <= 1) / count(), 1) AS within_one_month_pct
FROM chained
WHERE declared >= toDate('2017-01-01')
  AND dateDiff('day', prior_declared, declared) BETWEEN 250 AND 480
GROUP BY year
ORDER BY year

Katika kipindi cha 10 miaka iliyochorwa, sehemu ya mwezi uleule ilifikia 68.6% katika 2017 na 74.5% katika 2026, ya mwisho ikiwa katika kampuni 1154. Kuruhusu kuteleza kwa mwezi mmoja kunapandisha usomaji wa 2026 hadi 82.8%. Mstari wa mwisho unaishia kwenye matangazo hadi Julai 2026, tarehe ya mwisho inayotumiwa na kila paneli hapa. Kiwango cha kurudia katika masafa hayo ni kigezo cha awali chenye nguvu. Bado ni kigezo cha awali tu.

Kalenda ya ongezeko la kampuni moja, mwaka hadi mwaka

Johnson & Johnson iliongeza kiwango chake cha kila robo mwaka katika kila mwaka wa kipindi hiki. Kila mstari hapa chini ni ongezeko moja: tarehe ya tangazo, kiwango cha kabla yake, na kiwango cha baada yake.

WITH quarterly AS (
    SELECT ex_dividend_date,
           round(max(toFloat64(cash_amount)), 4) AS amount,
           max(declaration_date) AS declared
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE ticker = 'JNJ'
      AND distribution_type = 'recurring'
      AND frequency = 4
      AND cash_amount > 0
      AND declaration_date > toDate('2015-06-30')
      AND ex_dividend_date >= toDate('2015-07-01')
      AND ex_dividend_date <= toDate('2026-07-31')
    GROUP BY ex_dividend_date
),
stepped AS (
    SELECT declared,
           amount,
           ex_dividend_date,
           lagInFrame(amount, 1) OVER (ORDER BY ex_dividend_date ASC
                                       ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prior_amount,
           lagInFrame(ex_dividend_date, 1) OVER (ORDER BY ex_dividend_date ASC
                                       ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prior_ex_date
    FROM quarterly
)
SELECT toYear(declared) AS year,
       formatDateTimeInJodaSyntax(declared, 'MMM d') AS declared_on,
       round(prior_amount, 4) AS old_quarterly_usd,
       round(amount, 4) AS new_quarterly_usd,
       round(100 * (amount / prior_amount - 1), 1) AS raise_pct
FROM stepped
WHERE prior_amount > 0
  AND amount > prior_amount * 1.005
  AND dateDiff('day', prior_ex_date, ex_dividend_date) BETWEEN 45 AND 200
ORDER BY year

Ongezeko la kwanza kwenye jedwali lilitangazwa Apr 28 mnamo 2016, likipeleka kiwango cha kila robo mwaka kutoka $0.75 hadi $0.8, ongezeko la 6.7%. La hivi karibuni zaidi lilitangazwa Apr 14 mnamo 2026, likikipandisha hadi $1.34, ongezeko la 3.1%. Ncha zote mbili za mfululizo huu wa ongezeko la 11 ziko katika tarakimu moja za wastani, ambayo ndiyo sura ambayo kalenda ya kampuni iliyokomaa inayokua huchukua. Ukurasa wa dividend wa JNJ una rekodi kamili ya malipo, na historia ya ongezeko la Verizon inaonyesha mdundo uleule wa kila mwaka kwa kiwango cha ukuaji cha polepole zaidi.

Kinachovunja mzunguko

Mambo manne husababisha ongezeko kuhama kutoka mwezi wake wa kawaida, au kuliondoa kabisa katika mwaka husika.

• Malipo yaliyo chini ya shinikizo. Wakati dividend inapochukua sehemu kubwa ya mapato, mapitio ya kila mwaka yanaweza kuishia katika kusitisha ongezeko badala ya kulipandisha. Ukurasa wa dividend payout ratio unaonyesha jinsi kinga hiyo inavyopimwa.
• Muungano au mgawanyo wa kampuni unaosubiriwa. Hatua za kibiashara hubadilisha kalenda ya bodi na idadi ya hisa, na kiwango kinaweza kubaki kimeganda kwa mzunguko mzima wakati mkataba wa biashara ukiwa wazi.
• Mwaka uliorukwa ambao tayari uko kwenye rekodi. Kampuni iliyobaki na kiwango kilekile mwaka jana ina kumbukumbu ya maadhimisho iliyovunjika, na ongezeko lake lijalo huanzisha upya mzunguko badala ya kuendeleza ule wa awali.
• Kupunguzwa kwa malipo. Dividend cuts hutokana na mapitio yaleyale ya kila mwaka, na hutokea katika miezi ileile ambayo ongezeko hutokea.

Orodha hiyo ni muhimu zaidi kwa yeyote anayesoma kalenda kama utabiri. Kiwango cha msingi hujibu ni mwezi upi ambao bodi imekuwa ikitumia. Hakijibu kile ambacho bodi itafanya baadaye, na ongezeko huwepo tu pale kampuni inapolitangaza.

Tarehe ya tangazo, ex-dividend date, na pay date

Tangazo ni taarifa rasmi ya malipo. Ex-dividend date ndiyo tarehe ya mwisho ya umiliki ili kupata malipo hayo, na hutokea baadaye. Rekodi iliyopo inaonyesha muda wa kawaida unaopita kati ya tarehe hizi mbili.

SELECT toYear(declaration_date) AS year,
       uniqExact(ticker) AS company_count,
       count() AS declaration_count,
       round(100 * countIf(declaration_date <= ex_dividend_date) / count(), 1) AS declared_before_ex_pct,
       round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(dateDiff('day', declaration_date, ex_dividend_date),
                                        cityHash64(ticker))) AS median_days_declared_to_ex
FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
WHERE distribution_type = 'recurring'
  AND cash_amount > 0
  AND declaration_date > toDate('2015-12-31')
  AND declaration_date <= toDate('2026-07-31')
  AND ex_dividend_date > toDate('2015-12-31')
GROUP BY year
ORDER BY year

Katika sehemu ya mwaka wa 2026 hadi Julai, 29319 matangazo ya mara kwa mara kutoka kwa kampuni 10493 yalikuwa kwenye rekodi, yakiwa na wastani wa siku 29 kati ya tangazo na ex-dividend date. 100% ya rekodi hizo hubeba tangazo katika siku ya ex-date au kabla yake. Pengo hilo ni kipindi ambacho ongezeko la malipo linakuwa hadharani lakini bado halijalipwa. Kalenda ya ex-dividend dates zijazo inaorodhesha tarehe za mwisho za wiki mbili zijazo, na mwongozo wa ex-dividend date unaelezea ratiba nzima.

Maswali Yanayoulizwa Mara Kwa Mara

Ni lini kampuni nyingi hutangaza ongezeko la dividend?

Jan ina idadi kubwa zaidi ya matangazo kuliko mwezi wowote wa kalenda, ikiwa na ongezeko la 8287 kutoka kwa kampuni 1872 tangu katikati ya mwaka wa 2015, huku Dec na Feb zikifuata. Kila mwezi huwa na matangazo fulani. Mwezi wa kampuni binafsi huamuliwa na kalenda ya bodi yake yenyewe badala ya ile ya soko.

Je, unaweza kutabiri wakati kampuni itapandisha dividend yake?

Hapana. Unaweza kupima kiwango cha msingi. Miongoni mwa kampuni zinazopandisha kwa mzunguko wa kila mwaka, 74.5% zilitangaza katika mwezi uleule wa kalenda kama ongezeko lao la awali katika 2026, na 82.8% zilitokea ndani ya mwezi mmoja kutoka wakati huo. Kiwango cha juu cha kurudia matukio kinaelezea maamuzi ya bodi ya hapo awali na si kitu kingine.

Muda gani hupita baada ya ongezeko la dividend kutangazwa kabla ya malipo kufika?

Tangazo hutangulia, ikifuatiwa na ex-dividend date, na pesa huingia baada ya hapo. Katika 2026, wastani wa muda kutoka tangazo hadi ex-dividend date ulikuwa 29 siku kwa dividends zinazojirudia zilizopo kwenye kumbukumbu.

Inamaanisha nini kampuni inapokosa mwezi wake wa kawaida wa kupandisha dividend?

Inamaanisha kuwa mapitio ya kila mwaka hayajazaa kiwango cha juu bado. Kusitisha kunaweza kutangulia ongezeko la baadaye katika mwezi tofauti, mwaka wa kutobadilika, au kupunguzwa kwa malipo. Ukurasa wa ongezeko na upunguzaji hufuatilia ni matokeo yapi kati ya hayo yamejitokeza sokoni.

Je, kampuni zinazokuza dividend hupandisha kila mwaka?

Nyingi hufanya hivyo. Chache hupandisha mara mbili ndani ya mwaka mmoja au kubadilisha mzunguko baada ya spin-off au muungano, na jopo la kiwango cha kurudia hapo juu huondoa kesi hizo kwa kuhitaji siku mia mbili na hamsini hadi mia nne na themanini kati ya ongezeko moja na jingine.

Kila takwimu hapa inatokana na swali lililohifadhiwa kuhusu matangazo ya dividend yaliyowasilishwa. Fungua SQL ya jopo lolote, weka orodha yako ya ticker, na uendeshe kalenda mwenyewe kwenye terminal ya Strasmore.