Biggest Short Squeezes for History, Ranked

The biggest short squeezes for history get one common shape: dem sell more stock (or metal) short than wetin fit buy back, and price climb until person outside the market enter. By market value and documented losses, Volkswagen for October 2008 stand alone. By percentage move, KaloBios for November 2015 win; GameStop for January 2021 na the retail case, Northern Pacific for 1901 na the original corner, and LME nickel for 2022 na the commodity case wey end with trades for one morning cancelled.

How dem rank the biggest short squeezes for history?

Short squeeze na wetin happen when short sellers — traders wey sell borrowed shares — must buy dem back at the same time, and their buying dey push price up by itself; wetin short squeeze mean explain the mechanics. Ranking need yardstick. This one use three yardsticks and score every episode on each one:

1. Peak multiple: the highest print divide by the price before the squeeze start.
2. Market value swing: how much market capitalization (share price multiply by shares outstanding) appear and disappear.
3. Documented short-seller losses: the loss figure wey reporting or the exchange give at the time, shown as range whenever the estimate be range.

Every number below get its date. These na historical records from exchange notices and reporting from that time, no be live data; the three panels for the end hold the figures wey the ranking depend on.

Volkswagen, October 2008: the biggest short squeeze by market value

On Sunday, October 26, 2008, Porsche disclose say e hold 42.6% of Volkswagen ordinary shares outright, plus cash-settled options (contracts wey pay cash instead of shares) on another 31.5%, making 74.1% altogether. The state of Lower Saxony hold another 20.1%. That leave free float of roughly 5 to 6%, while short interest stand near 12 to 13%. Dem sell more VW short than the shares wey dey available to buy.

The ordinary shares close near €211 on Friday, October 24, reach €520 on Monday, and print €1,005 intraday on Tuesday, October 28: about 4.8x within two sessions. At that price, Volkswagen market value reach roughly €296 billion, briefly becoming the most valuable company for the world, ahead of ExxonMobil. Estimates from that time put hedge fund losses between €20 billion and €30 billion. Deutsche Börse cap VW weight for DAX at 10% from November 3. For days to cover terms, VW no get any answer: the float small pass the short position. Index funds recall the stock wey dem lend, and borrow fee jump as supply disappear.

GameStop, January 2021: the biggest retail short squeeze

GameStop na the case where individuals be the buyers for the other side. S3 Partners estimate short interest at 139.57% of the float for the week before the peak. From a close of $18.84 on December 31, 2020, GME touch $483 intraday on January 28, 2021, roughly 25x, while market value move from about $1.3 billion to roughly $24 billion at the January 27 close of $347.51. S3 put short sellers’ mark-to-market losses at $19.75 billion for the month, as dem report on January 29. Days to cover reverse here: volume pass 100 million shares on the busiest days, and the ratio look smallest exactly when covering cost the most. The session-by-session record dey for GameStop on January 28, 2021.

KaloBios, November 2015: the biggest percentage move

KaloBios Pharmaceuticals talk on November 13, 2015 say e go wind down. The shares bottom at $0.44 on November 16, the session wey group led by Martin Shkreli start buying. After the close on November 18, the company disclose say the group don buy more than half of shares outstanding; within days, the group hold 70%, Shkreli become chief executive, and e talk say his broker no go lend his shares again. From a $2.07 close on November 18, the last close before the disclosure, the stock reach high above $45 on November 23: about 22x within three sessions, and more than 100x from the 44-cent low.

Nobody publish aggregate loss figure. One documented loss represent the rest: trader named Joe Campbell short about $33,000 of KBIO on November 18 near $2, and wake the next morning owing his broker $106,000 beyond the account wey don wipe out. Na recall risk in the purest form. When person wey hold 70% of company remove shares from the lending pool, short seller fit get bought in at any price. Na the warning behind every hard-to-borrow list.

Northern Pacific, May 1901: the original corner

E.H. Harriman, backed by Kuhn, Loeb, and J.P. Morgan, backing James J. Hill, each dey buy Northern Pacific common stock to control the company, and between dem dem buy more than the shares wey exist. That one na corner: holders own more of a security than the market fit deliver, leaving short sellers with nothing to borrow. The stock trade near $100 for the first days of May 1901. On Thursday, May 9, e pass $400 within one hour of the open, reach $700 by noon and print $1,000 in the afternoon, about 10x, before closing near $300 after the two camps announce say shorts fit settle at $150 per share. The settlement make this the only squeeze where negotiation fix the loss instead of the tape.

LME nickel, March 2022: the squeeze wey cancel its own trades

The commodity case involve a futures short instead of borrowed shares. Tsingshan Holding Group, the world’s biggest stainless steel producer, hold a short position wey reports put at around 150,000 tonnes. Three-month nickel close near $29,000 per tonne on Friday, March 4, 2022, close above $48,000 on Monday, and touch $101,365 during the early London hours on Tuesday, March 8: about 3.5x within two sessions. LME suspend trading at 08:15 London time and later that day cancel every nickel trade executed on March 8, worth about $3.9 billion by its own account. Reports put Tsingshan’s paper loss at the peak around $8 billion on March 8; the market reopen on March 16 with daily price limits. For futures, margin call replace borrow fee, while exchange changing its rules in the middle of a session replace the recall.

The ranking, yardstick by yardstick

The three panels below hold the figures behind the ranking, one for each yardstick. Each row get its source and date. On last-close basis, GameStop edge KaloBios for peak multiple; when measured from the 44-cent low, KaloBios win by a wide margin.

SELECT episode, peak_multiple, price_path, source
FROM (
    SELECT 'GameStop, Jan 2021' AS episode, 25.6 AS peak_multiple, '$18.84 close Dec 31, 2020 to $483 high Jan 28, 2021' AS price_path, 'NYSE prints' AS source
    UNION ALL
    SELECT 'KaloBios, Nov 2015', 21.7, '$2.07 close Nov 18 to $45 high Nov 23, 2015 (102x from the $0.44 low of Nov 16)', 'Nasdaq prints'
    UNION ALL
    SELECT 'Northern Pacific, May 1901', 10.0, 'about $100 in early May to the $1,000 print of May 9, 1901', 'NYSE record, contemporaneous press'
    UNION ALL
    SELECT 'Volkswagen, Oct 2008', 4.8, '€211 close Oct 24 to €1,005 high Oct 28, 2008', 'Xetra prints, FT and Reuters reporting'
    UNION ALL
    SELECT 'LME nickel, Mar 2022', 3.5, '$29,000 a tonne close Mar 4 to $101,365 on Mar 8, 2022', 'LME notices, Reuters reporting'
) AS ranked
ORDER BY peak_multiple DESC

Only Volkswagen and GameStop get defensible pre-squeeze capitalization on record; nickel no get market cap, and its yardstick na the $3.9 billion of cancelled trades.

SELECT episode, before_bn, peak_bn, unit, source
FROM (
    SELECT 'Volkswagen, Oct 2008' AS episode, 60.0 AS before_bn, 296.0 AS peak_bn, 'EUR' AS unit, 'Oct 24, 2008 close against the €1,005 print of Oct 28; FT and Reuters reporting' AS source
    UNION ALL
    SELECT 'GameStop, Jan 2021', 1.3, 24.0, 'USD', 'Dec 31, 2020 close against the $347.51 close of Jan 27, 2021; NYSE prints'
) AS ranked
ORDER BY peak_bn DESC

For documented losses, Volkswagen’s range and GameStop’s point estimate dey within a few billion of each other, while nickel’s single-firm paper loss come third.

SELECT episode, loss_low_bn, loss_high_bn, unit, source
FROM (
    SELECT 'Volkswagen, Oct 2008' AS episode, 20.0 AS loss_low_bn, 30.0 AS loss_high_bn, 'EUR' AS unit, 'hedge fund losses, contemporaneous estimates reported Oct 28 to 29, 2008' AS source
    UNION ALL
    SELECT 'GameStop, Jan 2021', 19.75, 19.75, 'USD', 'S3 Partners mark-to-market for January 2021, reported Jan 29'
    UNION ALL
    SELECT 'LME nickel, Mar 2022', 8.0, 8.0, 'USD', 'Tsingshan paper loss at the Mar 8, 2022 peak, as reported that day'
) AS ranked
ORDER BY loss_high_bn DESC

Why the biggest short squeeze for history get German answer

Ask in English, “wetin be the biggest short squeeze ever,” and the quick answer na GameStop. Ask am for German, “größter Short Squeeze aller Zeiten,” and the answer na Volkswagen. For two out of the three yardsticks, the German answer correct. The Securities Trading Act (WpHG), as e stand for 2008, require disclosure of shares and physically settled options above set thresholds, but e no talk about cash-settled options. Na through that gap Porsche build economic claim on 31.5% of VW without filing. The Volkswagen Law keep Lower Saxony’s 20.1% permanently off the market, while VW’s DAX membership mean say index funds hold plenty of the remaining float. Germany close the cash-settled gap with the Anlegerschutz- und Funktionsverbesserungsgesetz, wey take effect for such positions from February 2012. Deutsche Börse’s 10% index cap date from the same week as the squeeze. The rules change; the ranking no change.

FAQ

Wetin be the biggest short squeeze for history?

By market value and documented losses, na Volkswagen for October 2008: €1,005 per share on October 28, market value near €296 billion, and hedge fund losses estimated between €20 billion and €30 billion. By percentage move, na KaloBios for November 2015, up more than 100x from its November 16 low.

GameStop na the biggest short squeeze ever?

E be the biggest retail-led squeeze and the biggest by documented dollar losses for a US stock: $19.75 billion for January 2021, according to S3 Partners. By market value swing, e trail Volkswagen by roughly one order of magnitude.

Short squeeze fit happen for commodities?

Yes. LME nickel move from about $29,000 to $101,365 per tonne within two sessions for March 2022, and the exchange cancel around $3.9 billion of trades executed on March 8. The mechanism na margin, no be borrow: futures short post cash against losses instead of renting shares.

You fit query short interest and days to cover for any US-listed stock on the Strasmore terminal. The screens behind the most shorted stocks and short squeeze candidates use the same arithmetic wey these five episodes break.