Wetin be short squeeze? GameStop numbers wey show am

Short squeeze na when price of stock wey plenty people don short jump sharp-sharp, and di jump dey feed on imself: as price dey go up, short sellers wey dey close dia positions must buy shares, and dat buying na new demand by itself. Dem dey throw di word for every sharp rally; di real thing dey leave specific fingerprints — for price, volume, di short-interest record, and di options tape. Di most famous case wey dem record — GameStop, January 2021 — dey inside our warehouse, and dis page dey walk di whole arc number by number: setup, spike, options side, and di crash wey follow.

How short squeeze dey work?

Short selling na bet say price go fall: you borrow shares, sell am, and plan to buy am back cheaper. Person wey buy stock fit lose only wetin e pay; short seller own loss no get ceiling — e dey grow dollar-for-dollar as price dey climb. Short position na also future purchase — every share wey dem borrow must eventually buy back and return.

Dat future buying na im be di squeeze fuel. When stock wey dem short heavy start to rise, every short seller face di same arithmetic at once, and to close mean say dem go buy — join body with everybody else wey dey close. Di higher di price, di more positions go hit dia pain level, di more forced buying go show. Short interest — di total count of shares wey dem sell short — dey measure how much of dat future buying don pile up.

GameStop, wey dem measure: di short interest side

GameStop enter November 2020 as one of di names wey dem short pass for US exchanges. Di record wey di exchange report, settlement by settlement:

SELECT toString(settlement_date) AS settled,
       round(short_interest / 1e6, 1) AS shares_short_m,
       round(days_to_cover, 1) AS days_to_cover
FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
WHERE ticker = 'GME'
  AND settlement_date >= '2020-11-01'
  AND settlement_date <= '2021-03-31'
ORDER BY settlement_date

As of di 2020-11-13 settlement, dem short 67.5 million GME shares and days to cover stand at 14 — to close everi short go take roughly dat number of full days of di stock normal volume. By di 2021-01-29 settlement, short interest don fall to 21.4 million shares — roughly two-thirds of di position don unwind inside three months — with days to cover at 1.

GameStop, wey dem measure: price and volume

For di same weeks, na di weekly price and volume record from di minute-by-minute tape:

SELECT toString(toStartOfWeek(day)) AS week_of,
       round(min(lo), 2) AS week_low,
       round(max(hi), 2) AS week_high,
       round(argMax(cl, day), 2) AS week_close,
       round(sum(vol) / 1e6, 0) AS shares_traded_m
FROM (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS day,
           min(toFloat64(low)) AS lo,
           max(toFloat64(high)) AS hi,
           argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) AS cl,
           sum(toFloat64(volume)) AS vol
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'GME'
      AND window_start >= '2021-01-04 04:00:00'
      AND window_start < '2021-02-20 04:00:00'
    GROUP BY day
)
GROUP BY week_of
ORDER BY week_of

Di first week of January 2021 print low of $17.06 on top 33 million shares wey dem trade. Three weeks later, di week of 2021-01-24, di tape print $513.12 for high and 558 million shares change hand for five sessions. Volume na di third leg of di squeeze fingerprint: forced buying no dey happen for quiet.

Di up-leg, di give-back, and di second act — di whole 2021 arc for one receipt row:

WITH daily AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS day,
           min(toFloat64(low)) AS lo,
           max(toFloat64(high)) AS hi
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'GME'
      AND window_start >= '2021-01-04 04:00:00'
      AND window_start < '2021-04-01 04:00:00'
    GROUP BY day
)
SELECT round(minIf(lo, day < '2021-02-01'), 2) AS january_low,
       round(maxIf(hi, day < '2021-02-01'), 2) AS late_january_high,
       round(maxIf(hi, day < '2021-02-01') / minIf(lo, day < '2021-02-01'), 1) AS low_to_peak_multiple,
       round(minIf(lo, day >= '2021-02-01' AND day < '2021-03-01'), 2) AS february_low,
       toString(argMinIf(day, lo, day >= '2021-02-01' AND day < '2021-03-01')) AS february_low_date,
       round((1 - minIf(lo, day >= '2021-02-01' AND day < '2021-03-01') / maxIf(hi, day < '2021-02-01')) * 100, 1) AS peak_to_trough_pct,
       round(maxIf(hi, day >= '2021-03-01'), 2) AS march_rebound_high
FROM daily

From January low of $17.05 to late-January high of $513.12: na 30.1x move inside one single month. Di panels line up — di two weeks wey di climb steep pass na di same two weeks wey short interest collapse from 61.8 million (settled 2021-01-15) go 21.4 million (settled 2021-01-29). Price spike, volume surge, and big short-interest drop for di same dates: dat co-movement na di squeeze signature. (Prices na as dem trade for 2021, before GME later 4-for-1 split.)

One honest caveat: dem dey report short interest only two times for month, with lag — check why short interest na two weeks old — so di record show di unwind for snapshots, and e no fit talk which purchases na shorts wey dey close versus new buyers wey dey enter. Di daily-flavored cousin get im own trap: short volume no be short interest.

Wetin make GameStop be di stock wey squeeze

Di mechanics dey show why one stock wey dem short well-well fit squeeze; January 2021 calendar wey dem document well-well show why dis one happen. For January 11, 2021, Chewy co-founder Ryan Cohen join GameStop board. For di next two weeks, di stock turn to di main tori for WallStreetBets forum, as heavy retail flow show face with di accelerating tape. For January 27, Melvin Capital — di most prominent GME short — confam say dem don close dia position. For January 28, Robinhood and oda brokers restrict opening purchases for GME and related names; di stock print im as-traded record high dat morning and give most of am back inside two hours — di January 28 tape, minute by minute get dat session full. Di data no fit rank dis forces; di record show all of dem show face inside di same three weeks.

Di gamma squeeze: di options side

GameStop January no be only stock story. Gamma squeeze na related but different kain tin: traders dey buy call options, di market makers for di oda side dey short dose calls, and standard practice na to hedge by buying di underlying stock. Dat hedge dey grow as di price dey rise toward and pass di calls strikes — di same self-reinforcing loop wit different forced buyer: na dealer dey hedge instead of short seller dey close. January 2021 run both at once, and di options tape show di shape:

SELECT toString(toStartOfWeek(toDate(toTimeZone(sip_timestamp, 'America/New_York')))) AS week_of,
       round(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 12, 1) = 'C') / 1e6, 2) AS call_contracts_m,
       round(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 12, 1) = 'P') / 1e6, 2) AS put_contracts_m,
       round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 12, 1) = 'C') / sum(size), 1) AS call_share_pct,
       round(sum(toFloat64(price) * size * 100) / 1e9, 2) AS premium_bn
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE ticker >= 'O:GME21' AND ticker < 'O:GME24'
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime('2021-01-04 00:00:00')
  AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime('2021-02-06 00:00:00')
GROUP BY week_of
ORDER BY week_of

For di first January week, calls na 66.6% of GME option contract volume — call-heavy flow na di raw material of dealer hedging. By di peak week, premium reach $23.54 billion, against $0.06 billion four weeks earlier, and di mix don flip: 3.97 million put contracts against 2.07 million calls, na 34.3% call share. Early for di move di options tape lean upside; at di top, downside bets dominate.

After the peak

Squeeze don finish — every covered short na short wey no fit cover again — and the arc receipt carry the aftermath. From the late-January high of $513.12, GME trade down to $38.5 by 2021-02-19: na 92.5% peak-to-trough drawdown for roughly three weeks. And dat one no be the end — March 2021 print $348.5 at the high, a second leg wey show after the reported short position don already small.

And the short side no rebuild: the settlement record run through 2021-03-31, with short interest at 10.7 million shares and days to cover at 1. Wetin trade GME for March 2021, e no be the same crowded short wey dey exit twice.

Oda squeeze wey dey di record

Dat same January squeeze one basket of name wey dem short well-well — di price wey high pass and di short interest for di two side of di month, for four of dem:

WITH px AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           round(min(toFloat64(low)), 2) AS jan_low,
           round(max(toFloat64(high)), 2) AS jan_high,
           round(max(toFloat64(high)) / min(toFloat64(low)), 1) AS low_to_high_multiple
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('GME', 'AMC', 'KOSS', 'BB')
      AND window_start >= '2021-01-04 04:00:00'
      AND window_start < '2021-01-30 04:00:00'
    GROUP BY ticker
),
si AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           round(anyIf(short_interest, settlement_date = '2020-12-31') / 1e6, 1) AS short_dec31_m,
           round(anyIf(short_interest, settlement_date = '2021-02-12') / 1e6, 1) AS short_feb12_m
    FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
    WHERE ticker IN ('GME', 'AMC', 'KOSS', 'BB')
      AND settlement_date IN ('2020-12-31', '2021-02-12')
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT px.ticker AS ticker,
       px.jan_low AS jan_low,
       px.jan_high AS jan_high,
       px.low_to_high_multiple AS low_to_high_multiple,
       si.short_dec31_m AS short_dec31_m,
       si.short_feb12_m AS short_feb12_m
FROM px
INNER JOIN si ON px.ticker = si.ticker
ORDER BY px.low_to_high_multiple DESC

Koss, one small headphone maker, print di group biggest multiple — 61.7x from January low go January high, and di short interest wey dem report fall from 0.6 million go 0.3 million shares inside di month. BlackBerry run 4.4x. Di table still carry one thing wey show difference: AMC spike 13.5x, but di short interest wey dem report high pass for February 12 (48.1 million shares) pass wetin e be for December 31 (39 million) — new shorts open fast pass as old ones close, and AMC still issue new shares dat month. Price spike alone no be proof say dem dey cover; di short-interest record for di two side na di check.

Wetin be days to cover, and wetin dem dey count as high?

Days to cover na when dem divide short interest by average daily volume: e mean how many normal days of di stock whole volume e go take to buy back every share wey dem short (wetin be days to cover get di full calibration). Na di standard way to measure how crowded di short side be compared to di exit — GME own 14 for November 2020 mean say di exit tight well well. For scale, di whole liquid end of di market for di latest settlement wey dey on file:

SELECT toString(max(settlement_date)) AS settled,
       count() AS liquid_names,
       round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(days_to_cover, cityHash64(ticker)), 1) AS median_days_to_cover,
       round(quantileDeterministic(0.9)(days_to_cover, cityHash64(ticker)), 1) AS p90_days_to_cover,
       round(max(days_to_cover), 1) AS max_days_to_cover,
       countIf(days_to_cover >= 10) AS names_at_10_plus
FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
WHERE settlement_date = (SELECT max(settlement_date) FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest)
  AND avg_daily_volume >= 5000000
  AND days_to_cover IS NOT NULL
  AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')

Among di 946 names wey dey average five million shares a day or more, di median days to cover for di 2026-06-30 settlement na just 1.8, di 90th percentile na 5, and na only 5 names siddon for 10 or above (di highest: 16.9). A GameStop-2020-style reading na real outlier, no be common condition.

Di shorts wey plenty pass right now

Aggregates dey hide di names. Di same settlement file, sorted — di ten most crowded liquid shorts for di latest print (full leaderboard treatment: di list of stocks wey dem short pass):

SELECT ticker,
       round(days_to_cover, 1) AS days_to_cover,
       round(short_interest / 1e6, 1) AS shares_short_m,
       round(avg_daily_volume / 1e6, 1) AS avg_daily_volume_m,
       toString(settlement_date) AS settled
FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
WHERE settlement_date = (SELECT max(settlement_date) FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest)
  AND avg_daily_volume >= 5000000
  AND days_to_cover IS NOT NULL
  AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
ORDER BY days_to_cover DESC, ticker
LIMIT 10

Di maths, if you do am by hand: di current leader, MPT, report 138.1 million shares wey dem short against an average of 8.2 million shares wey dem dey trade per day — divide di two, and to close every position go take about 16.9 days of normal volume. Traders dey screen dat reading alongside two inputs wey dis table no fit show: di float (a big short position for a small float na tighter exit) and di borrow fee, di annualized cost of holding di short.

Two cautions. High days to cover na precondition, no be forecast — names fit siddon for dis list for years as dem dey drift lower, and shorts sometimes just dey correct. And to chase a squeeze wey don already start mean say you dey buy wetin forced buyers don already lift; di arc receipt above show di oda side of dat trade.

FAQ

Wetin be gamma squeeze?

Na forced buying wey dey run through di options market: traders dey buy calls, di dealers wey sell am dey hedge by buying stock, and di hedge dey grow as di price dey rise. Di forced buyer na hedging dealer, no be short seller wey dey cover. GameStop January 2021 move show both at once, with calls at 66.6% of im option volume for di month first week.

How short squeeze different from ordinary rally?

Na di setup and di fingerprint. Di setup na large short position relative to trading volume — high short interest and high days to cover. Di fingerprint na sharp price rise on heavy volume across di same weeks wey reported short interest collapse. AMC January 2021 spike show why di check matter: di price run 13.5x while reported short interest rise.

Which other examples of short squeezes dey besides GameStop?

January 2021 alone produce several: Koss run 61.7x inside di month while im reported short interest halve; BlackBerry run 4.4x. Di classic earlier case na Volkswagen for October 2008 — one disclosure say most of di free float don already get owner coincide with di stock briefly rank as di world most valuable company.

You fit predict short squeeze?

No metric dey predict one. Wetin di data fit show na di precondition: how much short interest don stack up and how many days of volume e represent. Traders dey watch short interest and days to cover for exactly dat reason, dem remember say di reading dey about two weeks old when e publish.

GameStop for 2021 really be short squeeze?

Di record show di squeeze signature clearly: days to cover of 14 for November 2020, then 30.1x price move within weeks, concurrent with short interest dey fall from 67.5 million to 21.4 million shares. Other forces trade alongside — options activity, retail volume — and di data no fit apportion credit among dem.

Every number wey dey above come from stored, versioned query — expand di SQL under any panel, or pull di same records for any ticker on di Strasmore terminal.