Wetin You Go Lose If You Miss Di Best Days

To miss di best days na di hidden cost of trying to time di market. Since di start of 2016, to stay fully invested for di S&P 500 through im tracking fund SPY return 275.5%. Skip only di ten single best days for dat decade and di return go fall to 97%. Di best days no dey come for calm afternoon. Dem dey cluster inside di market worst, most volatile stretches, right where nervous investor dey most tempted to sell.

Di cost of missing di best days

Here na di whole idea for one line. Take every trading day since di start of 2016, rank dem by dia daily return, and remove di very best ones from simple buy-and-hold position for SPY. Every other day go stay exactly where e bin dey. Di chart dey show wetin di decade dey compound to as you strip out di top handful.

WITH daily AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS dt,
           argMax(toFloat64(close), toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS c
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2016-01-01'
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY dt
),
rets AS (
    SELECT dt, c / lagInFrame(c) OVER (ORDER BY dt) - 1 AS ret FROM daily
),
ranked AS (
    SELECT log(1 + ret) AS lr, row_number() OVER (ORDER BY ret DESC) AS rnk
    FROM rets
    WHERE ret IS NOT NULL AND ret > -0.5 AND ret < 0.5
)
SELECT k AS best_days_missed,
       round((exp(sumIf(lr, rnk > k)) - 1) * 100, 1) AS total_return_pct
FROM ranked
CROSS JOIN (SELECT arrayJoin([0, 10, 20, 30, 50]) AS k) AS kvals
GROUP BY k
ORDER BY k

Fully invested, SPY compound to 275.5% over di period. Remove di 10 best days and roughly two-thirds of dat gain go disappear, leaving 97%. Remove di 20 best and 42.4% remain. Remove di best 50 and di entire decade go turn negative, at -32.5%. Fifty days out of more than two thousand carry di whole result. Di long-run return no dey spread evenly across time. E dey sit on small number of big sessions.

Why di best days no dey possible to skip on purpose

Di obvious objection be say smart investor go sit out di bad days too. For practice di good days and di bad days dey sit on top of each other. Group di twenty biggest up-days and di twenty biggest down-days by di year dem fall inside, and dem go pile into di same short list of years.

WITH daily AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS dt,
           argMax(toFloat64(close), toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS c
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2016-01-01'
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY dt
),
rets AS (
    SELECT dt, c / lagInFrame(c) OVER (ORDER BY dt) - 1 AS ret FROM daily
),
clean AS (
    SELECT dt, ret FROM rets WHERE ret IS NOT NULL AND ret > -0.5 AND ret < 0.5
),
ranked AS (
    SELECT dt, ret,
           row_number() OVER (ORDER BY ret DESC) AS best_rnk,
           row_number() OVER (ORDER BY ret ASC) AS worst_rnk
    FROM clean
)
SELECT toYear(dt) AS year,
       countIf(best_rnk <= 20) AS best_20_days,
       countIf(worst_rnk <= 20) AS worst_20_days
FROM ranked
GROUP BY year
ORDER BY year

Di year 2020 alone hold 11 of di twenty best days and 9 of di twenty worst. Di 2022 bear market hold 5 of each. Di quiet years in between contribute almost none of either. Extreme up-days and extreme down-days na di same weather, dem dey arrive together during panics. Rule wey dodge di crashes go don dodge di recoveries wey dey sit right next to dem.

When di biggest up-days actually happen

Zoom into di single best days and di pattern go sharp still. Here na di ten largest one-day gains for SPY over di decade, ranked by size.

WITH daily AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS dt,
           argMax(toFloat64(close), toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS c
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2016-01-01'
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY dt
),
rets AS (
    SELECT dt, c / lagInFrame(c) OVER (ORDER BY dt) - 1 AS ret FROM daily
),
clean AS (
    SELECT dt, ret FROM rets WHERE ret IS NOT NULL AND ret > -0.5 AND ret < 0.5
),
ranked AS (
    SELECT dt, ret, row_number() OVER (ORDER BY ret DESC) AS best_rnk FROM clean
)
SELECT formatDateTime(dt, '%b %e, %Y') AS episode,
       round(ret * 100, 1) AS daily_return_pct
FROM ranked
WHERE best_rnk <= 10
ORDER BY daily_return_pct DESC

Di single best day of di decade na Mar 24, 2020, when SPY jump 9.5%. Most of di ten largest up-days land during di spring 2020 crash, with di rest for late 2018, di 2022 downturn, and di April 2025 selloff. Even di smallest of dis ten gain 4.4% for one session. Every one of dem happen while di market dey fall hard around am. Investor wey sell after frightening week to wait for di dust to settle go don dey hold cash for exactly dis rebounds.

Time for di market, no be timing di market

Di old phrase be say time for di market dey beat timing di market, and di arithmetic behind am dey blunt. Decade of gains dey back-loaded onto few dozen sessions, and those sessions dey appear for middle of selloffs instead of after dem. To step aside to avoid di worst day mean to risk step aside before di best one, and di two dey frequently days apart.

Dis na di same lesson wey dey run through buying when others dey fearful: di sharpest recoveries dey begin while di headlines still dey ugly. E also connect to how portfolio dey built to hold. To sit through di drops dey easier with positions wey you size for di ride, which na part of di case to limit concentration risk and to lean on lower-volatility stocks wey dey simpler to hold through storm. Di best days no be reward for cleverness. Dem na reward for still dey for your seat.

FAQ

Wetin e go cost to miss di best days for di market?

Since 2016, to stay invested for SPY return 275.5%. To miss just di ten best days cut dat to 97%, and to miss di best fifty turn di decade negative at -32.5%. Small number of days dey carry most of di long-run return.

Why I no fit just avoid di worst days instead?

Di best and worst days dey cluster for di same volatile stretches, often within di same week. For 2020, 11 of di twenty best days and 9 of di twenty worst fall for dat single year. No reliable rule dey separate dem in advance, and to sell to dodge di drops usually mean to miss di rebounds.

When di biggest up-days happen?

SPY single best day since 2016 na Mar 24, 2020, gain of 9.5%. Most of di ten largest up-days occur during di spring 2020 crash, with others for late 2018, 2022, and April 2025, all during sharp market declines.

Does time for di market dey beat timing di market?

For dis record, yes. Fully invested position compound far ahead of any version wey step out and miss even few of di best sessions. Di best days too few and too concentrated inside downturns to reliably trade around.

Every figure here na stored query wey you fit open and audit. Run di same best-days test for any index or stock for di Strasmore terminal.