Biashara bora na mbaya zaidi Juni 2026 elfu dola

Je, ni biashara gani bora zaidi ya chaguo (options) ya Juni 2026 — na elfu moja ya dola ndani yake ingekuwa nini? Jibu la uaminifu linakuja mara nne: jackpot; biashara isiyo ya kawaida ya senti mbili (two-contract penny print) ambayo kichwa chake kinategemea; hasara tisa za karibu kabisa (near-total losses) karibu nayo; na biashara ya kioo (mirror trade) — KUZA (SELLING) kile ambacho mshindi alinunua — ambapo elfu moja ya dola ya malipo yaliyokusanywa ikawa shimo la mamia ya maelfu. Kila kitu kinahesabiwa BAADA ya ukweli kutoka kwa kanda iliyohifadhiwa; biashara bora ya kuangalia nyuma (hindsight-optimal trade) inapima kile mwezi ulikuwa nacho, si mkakati wowote ambaye mtu angeweza kuendesha. Kila nambari ni matokeo ya swala lililohifadhiwa (stored query); panua paneli yoyote kwa SQL halisi.

Je, Juni 2026 ilikuwa mwezi wa kiwango gani?

Je, mshindi wa chaguo la hisa wenye faida mara mia anahitaji mwezi wa kihistoria wa soko? Juni inasema hapana. Jopo hili linakokotoa upya kila mwezi wa 2026 kwa njia sawa — kuanzia kufunguliwa hadi kufungwa kwa saa za kawaida, pamoja na anuwai ya juu hadi chini kama asilimia ya bei ya kufunguliwa — kwa SPY na NVDA, hisa msingi ya tiketi iliyoshinda. Juni ilikuwa na vikao 21.

SELECT toString(toStartOfMonth(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')))) AS period_start,
    round((argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, ticker = 'SPY' AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) / argMinIf(toFloat64(open), window_start, ticker = 'SPY' AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) - 1) * 100, 1) AS spy_month_pct,
    round((maxIf(toFloat64(high), ticker = 'SPY' AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) - minIf(toFloat64(low), ticker = 'SPY' AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)) / argMinIf(toFloat64(open), window_start, ticker = 'SPY' AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) * 100, 1) AS spy_range_pct,
    round((argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, ticker = 'NVDA' AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) / argMinIf(toFloat64(open), window_start, ticker = 'NVDA' AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) - 1) * 100, 1) AS nvda_month_pct,
    round((maxIf(toFloat64(high), ticker = 'NVDA' AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) - minIf(toFloat64(low), ticker = 'NVDA' AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)) / argMinIf(toFloat64(open), window_start, ticker = 'NVDA' AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) * 100, 1) AS nvda_range_pct,
    uniqExactIf(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), ticker = 'SPY') AS trading_days
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'NVDA')
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-01-01 05:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-01 04:00:00')
GROUP BY period_start
HAVING uniqExactIf(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), ticker = 'SPY') >= 17
ORDER BY period_start ASC

SPY ilimaliza Juni -1.2% kutoka kwa bei yake ya kufunguliwa ndani ya anuwai ya 5.8% — nyembamba kuliko Machi (8.7%) au Aprili (11.4%). Shughuli ilikuwa katika kiwango kimoja chini: NVDA ilifunga -7.4% kutoka kwa bei yake ya kufunguliwa Juni baada ya kusafiri anuwai ya 19.7% (muhtasari wa soko la Juni 2026 una picha ya soko zima). Tiketi yenye faida mara mia haikuhitaji mwezi wa kushuka kwa soko — hisa moja kubwa ikishuka kwa nguvu ndani ya wiki mbili ilitosha.

Vikwazo Vikubwa Zaidi vya Mwezi

Mkusanyiko: kila mkataba kwenye mizizi sita yenye ukwasi na angalau miamia hamsini ya Juni — 30951 mikataba — uliowekewa bei kutoka kwa chapisho la kwanza la Juni hadi la mwisho, kutoka kwa viti vyote viwili: ununuzi kwa bei ya kwanza ulioashiriwa kwa bei ya mwisho, na kile unachokidaiwa kwa kuuza kwa dola elfu moja ya malipo.

SELECT ticker AS contract,
    substring(ticker, -9, 1) = 'P' AS is_put,
    round(first_px, 2) AS first_price,
    round(last_px, 2) AS last_price,
    round(last_px / first_px, 1) AS multiple,
    toUInt32(floor(1000 / (first_px * 100))) AS contracts_for_a_thousand,
    round(floor(1000 / (first_px * 100)) * last_px * 100, 0) AS bought_end_value_usd,
    round(1000 * (last_px / first_px) - 1000, 0) AS sold_net_loss_usd,
    trades
FROM (
    SELECT ticker,
        toFloat64(argMin(price, (sip_timestamp, price))) AS first_px,
        toFloat64(argMax(price, (sip_timestamp, price))) AS last_px,
        count() AS trades
    FROM global_markets.options_trades
    WHERE ((startsWith(ticker, 'O:MU') AND length(ticker) = 19) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:NVDA') AND length(ticker) = 21) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:TSLA') AND length(ticker) = 21) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPY') AND length(ticker) = 20) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:QQQ') AND length(ticker) = 20) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:AAPL') AND length(ticker) = 21))
      AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-06-01 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-01 00:00:00', 9)
    GROUP BY ticker
    HAVING count() >= 50 AND argMin(price, (sip_timestamp, price)) > 0
)
ORDER BY multiple DESC, contract ASC
LIMIT 5

Mshindi alikuwa put: O:NVDA260629P00200000, iliyochapishwa kwa mara ya kwanza kwa $0.01 na mara ya mwisho kwa $4.95 — 495x mara. Soma ishara: put ya NVDA yenye strike $200 inayoisha Juni 29. Dola elfu moja kwenye chapisho la kwanza ilinunua 1000 mikataba; kwenye chapisho la mwisho nafasi hiyo ilikuwa na thamani $495000. NVDA ilitumia nusu ya pili ya Juni kushuka — uchambuzi wake wa kina unaonyesha mteremko huo, kikao kwa kikao — na mkataba huu ulikuwa mteremko huo, ulioimarishwa. Kujua mapema ni sehemu ambayo hakuna jedwali linaloweza kukuuzia; chapisho la kwanza lenyewe linapata sehemu ya uchunguzi wa kina hapa chini.

Nani Mwingine Aliyefika Kwenye Orodha ya Wakuu

Mikataba yote mitano ni put — safu ya is_put ni risiti — na hata kiwango kidogo zaidi cha mara kilizidi mara kumi. Mstari wa pili, put ya AAPL $240 inayoisha Julai 24, ilikimbia $0.01 hadi $0.34 kwa 34x na ilikuwa bado hai mwishoni mwa mwezi (mwisho wa Julai unafanya bei hiyo ya mwisho kuwa alama, si malipo). Mstari wa tatu, put ya MU $100 inayoisha Julai 10, ilichapisha 20x na pia ilibeba hadi Julai. Mstari wa nne na wa tano, put ya TSLA $397.50 na put ya QQQ $707 zote zinazoisha Juni 10, zilifanya 12.5x na 11.7x kwenye mteremko wa ufunguzi wa mwezi. Mikataba mitano, dau tano kwa kitu kinachoanguka.

Kuuza: jinsi dola elfu moja inavyogeuka kuwa hasara ya nusu milioni

Kununua mshindi kulihatarisha dola elfu moja haswa. KUUZA — kukusanya elfu hiyo hiyo kama malipo — kulihatarisha mwendo. Safu ya sold_net_loss_usd inaendesha kila safu kutoka kwa mtazamo wa muuzaji, bila kujali ukingo, mgawo, na ununuzi wa kulazimishwa. Kuuza mikataba 1000 kwa $0.01 kulikusanya dola elfu moja; chapisho la mwisho liliweka nafasi kwa $495000 dhidi ya muuzaji — hasara halisi ya $494,000. Hali mbaya zaidi ya mnunuzi ni bei ya tiketi; hali mbaya zaidi ya muuzaji ni mwendo, na mwendo mkubwa zaidi wa Juni ulikuwa tiketi mia tano kwa kina.

Tatizo la uchapishaji wa senti

495x inatoka wapi? Stakabadhi iliyo hapa chini inakandamiza mkanda wote wa Juni wa mshindi katika safu moja ya uchunguzi: uchapishaji wake wa kwanza, wa pili, na sensa ya kila uchapishaji wa senti katika maisha yake.

SELECT
    toString(toDate(min(sip_timestamp))) AS first_print_date,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(min(sip_timestamp), 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i:%S') AS first_print_et,
    round(anyIf(price, rn = 1), 2) AS first_price,
    toUInt64(anyIf(size, rn = 1)) AS first_print_contracts,
    countIf(price <= 0.011) AS penny_prints_in_june,
    toUInt64(sumIf(size, price <= 0.011)) AS penny_contracts_in_june,
    round(anyIf(price, rn = 2), 2) AS second_price,
    toUInt32(dateDiff('second', min(sip_timestamp), anyIf(sip_timestamp, rn = 2))) AS seconds_to_second_print,
    round(argMax(price, (sip_timestamp, price)), 2) AS month_last_price,
    round(argMax(price, (sip_timestamp, price)) / anyIf(price, rn = 2), 1) AS second_print_multiple_to_last,
    round(floor(1000 / (anyIf(price, rn = 2) * 100)) * argMax(price, (sip_timestamp, price)) * 100, 0) AS thousand_at_second_print_end_usd
FROM (
    SELECT sip_timestamp, toFloat64(price) AS price, size,
        row_number() OVER (ORDER BY sip_timestamp, price) AS rn
    FROM global_markets.options_trades
    WHERE ticker = 'O:NVDA260629P00200000'
      AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-06-01 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-01 00:00:00', 9)
)

Mkataba haukuwepo kwenye mkanda wa Juni hadi 2026-06-15. Uchapishaji wake wa kwanza, saa 09:49:30 ET, ulikuwa 2 mikataba kwa $0.01 — takriban dola mbili za malipo. Uchapishaji uliofuata, 101 sekunde baadaye, ulikuwa $2.44, na senti haikuchapishwa tena (1 uchapishaji wa senti, 2 mikataba, mwezi mzima). Nafasi ya mikataba elfu moja ambayo kichwa cha habari kinachukulia ni mara mia tano ya ukubwa uliowahi kuuzwa kwa bei hiyo. Ingia kwenye uchapishaji wa pili badala yake na dola elfu moja zitawekwa alama $1980 kwa uchapishaji wa mwisho wa mwezi — 2x, si 495x. Safari kutoka uchapishaji wa pili — takriban mara mbili katika wiki mbili, kwenye njia ya vurugu — ilikuwa halisi na inayoweza kuuzwa. Bahati nasibu, kama ilivyochapishwa, haikuwa hivyo.

Safari: vipindi kumi tangu kuanza kuorodheshwa hadi kukoma

Chukulia kwamba ombi la ajabu la kujaza lilitimizwa hata hivyo, na ushikilie hadi mwisho: kila kipindi ambacho tiketi hiyo ilifanya biashara — mauzo, bei ya mwisho, na alama ya nafasi.

WITH (
    SELECT (ticker, first_px)
    FROM (
    SELECT ticker,
        toFloat64(argMin(price, (sip_timestamp, price))) AS first_px,
        toFloat64(argMax(price, (sip_timestamp, price))) AS last_px,
        count() AS trades
    FROM global_markets.options_trades
    WHERE ((startsWith(ticker, 'O:MU') AND length(ticker) = 19) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:NVDA') AND length(ticker) = 21) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:TSLA') AND length(ticker) = 21) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPY') AND length(ticker) = 20) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:QQQ') AND length(ticker) = 20) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:AAPL') AND length(ticker) = 21))
      AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-06-01 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-01 00:00:00', 9)
    GROUP BY ticker
    HAVING count() >= 50 AND argMin(price, (sip_timestamp, price)) > 0
    )
    ORDER BY last_px / first_px DESC, ticker ASC
    LIMIT 1
) AS winner
SELECT toDate(sip_timestamp) AS date,
    toUInt64(sum(size)) AS contracts_traded,
    round(sum(toFloat64(price) * toFloat64(size)) * 100 / 1e6, 2) AS day_premium_usd_m,
    round(toFloat64(argMax(price, (sip_timestamp, price))), 2) AS day_last_price,
    round(floor(1000 / (winner.2 * 100)) * toFloat64(argMax(price, (sip_timestamp, price))) * 100, 0) AS position_value_usd,
    round(100 * toFloat64(argMax(price, (sip_timestamp, price))) / max(toFloat64(argMax(price, (sip_timestamp, price)))) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_peak
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE ticker = winner.1
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-06-01 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-01 00:00:00', 9)
GROUP BY date
ORDER BY date ASC

Mkataba ulichapishwa katika vipindi vyote 10 vya maisha yake, 2026-06-15 hadi kukoma kwake tarehe 2026-06-29. Siku ya kwanza ilimalizika kwa $1.4, na dola elfu moja tayari zimewekwa alama kwa $140000 kutoka kwa kuingia kwa senti. Kisha safari ikageuka: alama ya $287000 tarehe 2026-06-17 ilipungua hadi $106000 kufikia 2026-06-22, punguzo la karibu theluthi mbili. Kilele, $745000, kilikuja tarehe 2026-06-26, kipindi kimoja kabla ya kukoma; chapisho la mwisho liliweka alama $495000 — 66.4% ya kilele. Hata biashara bora zaidi ya mwezi ilimaliza theluthi moja chini ya kilele chake. Mauzo: siku ya kwanza ilifanya biashara ya mikataba 385 katika kipindi chote — takriban nafasi iliyodhaniwa katika vipindi vit tri vya kwanza kwa pamoja — wakati siku yenye shughuli nyingi, 2026-06-23, ilifanya mikataba 9718 na $2.86 milioni kwa malipo. Ukubwa ulifika tu baada ya harakati kuanza.

Upande mwingine wa daftari

SELECT
    count() AS contracts_with_50_trades,
    countIf(substring(ticker, -9, 1) = 'P') AS put_contracts,
    countIf(last_px / first_px >= 100) AS up_100x_plus,
    countIf(last_px / first_px >= 10) AS up_10x_plus,
    countIf(last_px / first_px >= 10 AND substring(ticker, -9, 1) = 'P') AS up_10x_puts,
    countIf(last_px / first_px >= 10 AND substring(ticker, -9, 1) = 'C') AS up_10x_calls,
    countIf(last_px / first_px <= 0.1) AS down_90_pct_plus,
    countIf(last_px / first_px <= 0.1 AND substring(ticker, -9, 1) = 'C') AS down_90_calls,
    round(100.0 * countIf(last_px / first_px <= 0.1 AND substring(ticker, -9, 1) = 'C') / countIf(last_px / first_px <= 0.1), 1) AS down_90_call_share_pct,
    countIf(last_px <= 0.02) AS ended_at_two_cents_or_less
FROM (
    SELECT ticker,
        toFloat64(argMin(price, (sip_timestamp, price))) AS first_px,
        toFloat64(argMax(price, (sip_timestamp, price))) AS last_px,
        count() AS trades
    FROM global_markets.options_trades
    WHERE ((startsWith(ticker, 'O:MU') AND length(ticker) = 19) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:NVDA') AND length(ticker) = 21) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:TSLA') AND length(ticker) = 21) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPY') AND length(ticker) = 20) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:QQQ') AND length(ticker) = 20) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:AAPL') AND length(ticker) = 21))
      AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-06-01 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-01 00:00:00', 9)
    GROUP BY ticker
    HAVING count() >= 50 AND argMin(price, (sip_timestamp, price)) > 0
)

SELECT ticker AS contract,
    round(first_px, 2) AS first_price,
    round(last_px, 2) AS last_price,
    toUInt32(floor(1000 / (first_px * 100))) AS contracts_a_thousand_bought,
    round(floor(1000 / (first_px * 100)) * last_px * 100, 0) AS ending_value_usd
FROM (
    SELECT ticker,
        toFloat64(argMin(price, (sip_timestamp, price))) AS first_px,
        toFloat64(argMax(price, (sip_timestamp, price))) AS last_px,
        count() AS trades
    FROM global_markets.options_trades
    WHERE ((startsWith(ticker, 'O:MU') AND length(ticker) = 19) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:NVDA') AND length(ticker) = 21) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:TSLA') AND length(ticker) = 21) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPY') AND length(ticker) = 20) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:QQQ') AND length(ticker) = 20) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:AAPL') AND length(ticker) = 21))
      AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-06-01 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-01 00:00:00', 9)
    GROUP BY ticker
    HAVING count() >= 50 AND argMin(price, (sip_timestamp, price)) > 0
)
WHERE last_px <= 0.02 AND floor(1000 / (first_px * 100)) >= 1
ORDER BY first_px DESC, contract ASC
LIMIT 1

Nambari inayostahili kuwa karibu na tuzo kubwa: kati ya mikataba 30951 ya kioevu, 1 pekee ilirudisha mara mia — na 9385 ilipoteza asilimia tisini au zaidi, mikataba 8949 katika ulimwengu mzima ilichapishwa mara ya mwisho kwa senti mbili au chini yake. Ukichora kwa upofu kutoka kwenye staha hii, rundo la hasara ya asilimia tisini lilitokea maelfu ya nyakati kwa kila tuzo kubwa. Njia ghali zaidi ya kushuka: O:MU260612C01350000, chaguo la simu la MU la $1,350 linaloisha Juni 12, lilifunguliwa Juni kwa $10 na kumalizika kwa $0.01, na kugeuza dola elfu moja kuwa $1.

Chaguo za simu au za kuuza: upande gani ulishinda?

Mikia miwili hailingani. Mkia ulioshinda ulikuwa wa chaguo za kuuza pekee: kila moja kati ya 14 ya mara kumi ilikuwa chaguo la kuuza (14 chaguo za kuuza, 0 chaguo za simu) katika ulimwengu ulio na 14994 chaguo za kuuza kati ya mikataba 30951. Mkia uliopoteza ulikuwa karibu sawa: kati ya hasara 9385 za karibu jumla, 4403 — 46.9% — zilikuwa chaguo za simu, huku chaguo za kuuza zikiwa wengi kidogo. Mwelekeo ulichagua kila mshindi mkubwa, lakini haukuokoa mtu yeyote peke yake: maelfu ya chaguo za kuuza pia yalitua kwenye rundo la hasara, likikosea kwa bei ya utekelezaji, likikosea kwa wiki, au zote mbili.

Ambapo hasara zilijilimbikizia

Ni msingi gani uliotoa kaburi? Sio jina la ajali.

SELECT
    multiIf(startsWith(ticker, 'O:NVDA'), 'NVDA', startsWith(ticker, 'O:TSLA'), 'TSLA', startsWith(ticker, 'O:AAPL'), 'AAPL', startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPY'), 'SPY', startsWith(ticker, 'O:QQQ'), 'QQQ', 'MU') AS root,
    count() AS contracts,
    countIf(last_px / first_px <= 0.1) AS down_90_pct_plus,
    round(100.0 * countIf(last_px / first_px <= 0.1) / count(), 1) AS pct_of_root_wiped,
    round(100.0 * countIf(last_px / first_px <= 0.1) / sum(countIf(last_px / first_px <= 0.1)) OVER (), 1) AS share_of_all_down_90_pct,
    countIf(last_px / first_px >= 10) AS up_10x_plus
FROM (
    SELECT ticker,
        toFloat64(argMin(price, (sip_timestamp, price))) AS first_px,
        toFloat64(argMax(price, (sip_timestamp, price))) AS last_px,
        count() AS trades
    FROM global_markets.options_trades
    WHERE ((startsWith(ticker, 'O:MU') AND length(ticker) = 19) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:NVDA') AND length(ticker) = 21) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:TSLA') AND length(ticker) = 21) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPY') AND length(ticker) = 20) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:QQQ') AND length(ticker) = 20) OR (startsWith(ticker, 'O:AAPL') AND length(ticker) = 21))
      AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-06-01 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-01 00:00:00', 9)
    GROUP BY ticker
    HAVING count() >= 50 AND argMin(price, (sip_timestamp, price)) > 0
)
GROUP BY root
ORDER BY down_90_pct_plus DESC, root ASC

QQQ ilitoa rundo kubwa zaidi: hasara 2923 za karibu jumla — 31.1% ya rundo zima — huku 35.7% ya mikataba yake ya kioevu ikifutwa. Ongeza 24.7% za SPY na mizizi ya fahirisi inashikilia zaidi ya nusu ya kaburi. Viwango viwili vya kufutwa vilivyo laini zaidi ni vya NVDA na AAPL (21.8% na 21.8%) — cha kwanza kati ya hivi ni NVDA, mzizi ulio chini ya mshindi mkubwa zaidi wa mwezi. Rundo lilikua mnene zaidi pale ambapo malipo yalikaa tuli. Upande mwingine, jedwali lile lile: QQQ ilizalisha 9 kati ya 14 za mara kumi za mwezi; SPY, ikiwa na mikataba 2319 kwenye rundo, ilizalisha 0.

Kile Jedwali hili Linafundisha (na Lisichoweza)

Masomo manne. Convexity ni halisi: chaguo la bei nafuu lililo nje ya fedha huzidisha kwa kiasi kikubwa wakati msingi unaposonga kwa kasi — ndiyo sababu tiketi za bahati nasibu zinauzwa kwa senti. Viwango vya kichwa vinahitaji uchunguzi wa kina: 495x ya Juni inategemea chapisho moja la kura mbili; safari inayoweza kuuzwa ilikuwa mara mbili. Usambazaji ni bei ya convexity: 14 washindi wa mara kumi wameketi kando ya 9385 walio karibu kufutwa (maelezo ya wafanyabiashara wa soko yanashughulikia nani anauza tiketi). Na kutazama nyuma hakuwezi kuuzwa: tiketi iliyoshinda haikuwepo Juni 1 — ilichapishwa kwa mara ya kwanza Juni 15 — na kuinunua kulimaanisha kujua, asubuhi hiyo, mwelekeo na wakati wa wiki mbili zilizofuata. Ukurasa huu unapima yaliyomo Juni. Haupendekezi yale Julai itakayokuwa.

Maswali Yanayoulizwa Mara kwa Mara

Je, ni biashara gani bora ya chaguo (options) mwezi Juni 2026?

Ikilinganishwa kuanzia bei ya kwanza hadi ya mwisho katika mizizi sita iliyo na ukwasi mzuri, ni put ya NVDA yenye bei ya $200 inayoisha tarehe 29 Juni 2026: $0.01 hadi $4.95, mara 495 ya kuzidisha — ikitegemea bei ya kwanza ya senti mbili kwa kura mbili (bei iliyofuata ilikuwa $2.44).

Je, unaweza kupoteza zaidi ya ulichowekeza katika biashara ya chaguo (options)?

Kwa kununua chaguo, hapana: mnunuzi anaweza kupoteza kiwango cha juu cha malipo yaliyolipwa. Kwa kuuza chaguo, ndiyo — risiti ya Juni inaonyesha muuzaji aliyekusanya malipo ya dola elfu moja akimaliza $494,000 chini ya maji kwenye bei ya mwisho.

Kwa nini chaguo nyingi za bei nafuu huisha bila thamani?

Chaguo la bei nafuu linakadiria matokeo ambayo soko linachukulia kuwa si ya uwezekano mkubwa: mwendo mkubwa kabla ya tarehe ya mwisho iliyo karibu. Miezi mingi hutoa mwendo mdogo kama huo, na tiketi nyingi hupungua thamani. Mwezi Juni 2026, 9385 kati ya 30951 mikataba iliyofanya biashara kwa bidii ilipoteza angalau asilimia tisini ya thamani yake ya bei ya kwanza; 8949 ilifanya biashara ya mwisho kwa senti mbili au chini.

Je, mfanyabiashara halisi angeweza kupata mara 495?

Kwa hakika si kwa ukubwa uliochapishwa: ni 2 tu mikataba iliyowahi kufanya biashara kwa bei ya kuingia ya $0.01, na bei ilisimama kwa $2.44 ndani ya 101 sekunde. Dola elfu moja kwenye bei ya pili ilikuwa takriban $1980 kwenye bei ya mwisho — biashara nzuri, mara ya kubadilisha maisha tu kwa kutazama nyuma.

Vidokezo vya Data

Mbinu

• Kipindi: Juni 1–30, 2026; nyakati zimehifadhiwa kwa UTC, zimechujwa kwa mipaka ghafi ya UTC. Paneli ya urekebishaji ni kizuizi cha msingi na inatazama nyuma kwa makusudi katika mwaka wote wa 2026, ikihesabiwa kwa namna ileile.
• Kwa kila mkataba: bei ya kwanza = biashara ya muhuri wa kwanza wa Juni wa SIP, ya mwisho = ya mwisho; uhusiano unavunjwa kwa uamuzi kwa kutumia bei. Vingi ni za mwisho juu ya za kwanza, zinahesabiwa ndani ya hoja.
• Paneli ya njia ya kila siku inatoa tena mshindi kutoka kwa uchanganuzi uleule ulioorodheshwa katika kila kizazi; risiti ya kuingia inaimarisha kwa alama, ikiwa na mipaka inayoshikilia chapisho ikiwa hizo mbili hazikubaliani.
• Kizazi ni kwa kundi pekee kupitia njia iliyozuiliwa ya kusoma tu; ukurasa haujiulizi moja kwa moja. Hali ya ghala kufikia Julai 12, 2026.

Kila paneli ni kitu kimoja kilichohifadhiwa — chati, jedwali, na SQL. Chunguza daftari mwenyewe kwenye terminal ya Strasmore.