Strasmore Research
Deep Dives · Matt ConnorBy Matt Connor · · Updated 2026-07-25

SPCX: kushuka kwa bei ya SpaceX kutoka kilele

SPCX ilishuka kwa asilimia 33.7 kutoka kilele cha $225.64 Juni 16, 2026 hadi kufungwa kwa $149.58 Julai 7, chini ya bei ya ufunguzi wa IPO ya $150.

SpaceX ilipanga bei ya IPO yake kwa $135 kwa hisa na kuanza biashara mnamo Juni 12, 2026 kwa $150 — na kufikia kufungwa kwa Julai 7, mzunguko ulikamilika. SPCX ilifikia kilele cha 225.64 mnamo Juni 16, 2026, ikiwa juu kwa 50.4% kutoka kwa biashara ya ufunguzi wa IPO, kisha ikarudisha yote: Julai 7 ilifungwa kwa $149.58, $0.42 chini ya chapisho la kwanza la saa za kawaida, ikitoka kwa kiwango cha chini cha mwisho wa siku cha $148.86. Kilele hadi kufungwa hiyo kinapima kushuka kwa 33.7%. Katika kipindi hicho hicho, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) ilipanda kwa 0.94% — hii ilikuwa upya wa bei wa hisa moja, si harakati ya soko. Kila nambari hapa chini ni matokeo ya swala iliyohifadhiwa kutoka kwa mkanda uliojumuishwa na mlisho wa nukuu; panua paneli yoyote kwa SQL halisi.

Safu: Kutoka kwa IPO hadi mzunguko kamili

Safu ya alama inaeleza kwa mstari mmoja: bei ya toleo $135, biashara ya kwanza ya saa za kawaida $150 (mzunguko wa ufunguzi wa saa 11:46 asubuhi — uchambuzi wa kina wa mwezi wa kwanza una maelezo ya siku ya kuorodheshwa), kilele $225.64 mnamo Juni 16, na kufunga kwa $149.58 mnamo Julai 7. Kilele kilichapishwa katikati ya asubuhi ndani ya saa za kawaida na kinafuatiliwa na pau zake za jirani (maelezo ya data); kiwango cha chini cha kikao cha Julai 7, $148.86, kilichapishwa saa 15:55 ET — ndani ya nusu saa ya mwisho.

UlizaSafu moja: ufunguzi wa IPO, kilele, kufunga Julai 7, na kushuka
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH
    peak_stats AS (
        SELECT
            round(toFloat64(max(high)), 2) AS peak_hi,
            toDate(toTimeZone(argMax(window_start, (toFloat64(high), -toInt64(toUnixTimestamp(window_start)))), 'America/New_York')) AS peak_d
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
          AND window_start >= '2026-06-12 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-08 00:00:00'
          AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    ),
    ipo_open AS (
        SELECT round(toFloat64(argMin(open, window_start)), 2) AS ipo_open_px
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
          AND window_start >= '2026-06-12 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-13 00:00:00'
          AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    ),
    issue_price AS (
        SELECT toFloat64(final_issue_price) AS issue_px
        FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
        ORDER BY listing_date DESC LIMIT 1
    ),
    jul7 AS (
        SELECT
            round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2) AS jul7_c,
            round(toFloat64(min(low)), 2) AS jul7_lo,
            argMin(window_start, (toFloat64(low), toInt64(toUnixTimestamp(window_start)))) AS low_bar
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
          AND window_start >= '2026-07-07 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-08 00:00:00'
          AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    ),
    spy_ret AS (
        SELECT round((toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)) / toFloat64(argMin(open, window_start)) - 1) * 100, 2) AS spy_pct
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
          AND window_start >= '2026-06-12 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-08 00:00:00'
          AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    )
SELECT
    toString(round(ip.issue_px, 2)) AS issue_price,
    io.ipo_open_px AS ipo_open,
    ps.peak_hi AS peak_price,
    toString(ps.peak_d) AS peak_date,
    toMonth(ps.peak_d) AS peak_month,
    toDayOfMonth(ps.peak_d) AS peak_day,
    j.jul7_c AS jul7_close,
    j.jul7_lo AS jul7_low,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(j.low_bar, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS jul7_low_et,
    toHour(toTimeZone(j.low_bar, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(j.low_bar, 'America/New_York')) AS jul7_low_et_minute,
    round(io.ipo_open_px - j.jul7_c, 2) AS close_below_ipo_usd,
    round(io.ipo_open_px - j.jul7_lo, 2) AS low_below_ipo_usd,
    round((ps.peak_hi - io.ipo_open_px) / io.ipo_open_px * 100, 1) AS peak_above_ipo_pct,
    round((ps.peak_hi - j.jul7_c) / ps.peak_hi * 100, 1) AS decline_from_peak_pct,
    sr.spy_pct AS spy_period_pct
FROM peak_stats ps, ipo_open io, issue_price ip, jul7 j, spy_ret sr

Kikao kwa kikao: kushuka kwa thamani

SPCX ilifanya biashara kwa vipindi 16 kati ya kuanza kwake na Julai 7 — kufungwa kwa Juneteenth Juni 19 na Uhuru Julai 3 kunaelezea mapengo ya kalenda. Ilifungua kikao chake cha kwanza kwa $150, ikachapisha kilele cha $225.64 vipindi viwili baadaye, na kufika Julai 7 kwa kufungwa kwa $149.58 kwa kiwango cha chini cha $148.86. Kiasi cha biashara kilipungua kadri hadithi ilivyokomaa: hisa milioni 495.6 siku ya kwanza, milioni 274.5 kwenye kikao cha kilele, milioni 66.2 Julai 7.

UlizaJedwali la kipindi cha kawaida: ufunguzi, kufunga, chini, juu, kiasi kwa kila kipindi cha SPCX
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS session_date,
    round(toFloat64(argMin(open, window_start)), 2) AS rth_open,
    round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2) AS rth_close,
    round(toFloat64(min(low)), 2) AS rth_low,
    round(toFloat64(max(high)), 2) AS rth_high,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS vol_m
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND window_start >= '2026-06-12 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-08 00:00:00'
  AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
GROUP BY session_date
ORDER BY session_date

Julai 7: siku ambayo mstari ulivunjika

Julai 7 pia ilikuwa kikao cha kwanza cha SPCX ndani ya Nasdaq-100 — biashara ya kuongezwa kwenye fahirisi inapima kufunga kwa rekodi kwa misalaba iliyotangulia Julai 6, mnada kwa mnada. Siku yenyewe, uuzaji ulijaa mwanzoni na mwishoni. SPCX ilifungua kwa $158.92 na nusu saa ya kwanza pekee iligeuza hisa milioni 13.4, ikipeleka hisa hadi $153.08 ifikapo saa 10:00 asubuhi. Mchana ulishikilia juu ya bei ya awali ya IPO — kutoka asubuhi hadi saa 3 usiku, kufunga kwa nusu saa kulikaa kati ya takriban $150.42 na $152.59 — na kisha nusu saa ya mwisho ikaivunja: hisa milioni 10.9, kiwango cha chini cha kikao cha $148.86 kikichapishwa saa 15:55 ET, na kumalizia kwa $149.58. Kufunga huko ni $0.42 chini ya biashara ya ufunguzi wa IPO — chapisho la kwanza la kufunga chini ya mstari huo katika maisha mafupi ya hisa.

UlizaNjia ya ndani ya siku Julai 7: nusu saa kufunga, chini, na kiasi
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(toStartOfInterval(window_start, INTERVAL 30 MINUTE), 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS et_time,
    round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2) AS close_px,
    round(toFloat64(min(low)), 2) AS bucket_low,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS vol_m
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND window_start >= '2026-07-07 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-07 20:00:00'
GROUP BY et_time
ORDER BY et_time

Mwanya ulipungua bei iliposhuka

Jambo moja ambalo halikuzidi kuwa baya wakati wa kushuka kwa bei lilikuwa gharama ya kufanya biashara. Mwanya wa bei ya kununua na kuuza — ushuru ambao kila agizo la soko hulipa — ulikuwa wastani wa 10.74 bps ya katikati siku ya IPO, 7.14 bps katika kipindi cha kilele, na 4.18 bps mnamo Julai 7. Kina cha bei kwenye nukta ya biashara kilipungua wakati umati ulipoendelea: wastani wa 9506 hisa siku ya kwanza dhidi ya 3265 mnamo Julai 7. Mfumo wa nukuu ulitulia hata bei iliposhuka.

UlizaKuenea kwa bei ya hisa na kina kwa kipindi (rekodi batili zinahesabiwa kwa kila safu)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    toDate(toTimeZone(sip_timestamp, 'America/New_York')) AS session_date,
    round(avgIf((toFloat64(ask_price) - toFloat64(bid_price)) / ((toFloat64(ask_price) + toFloat64(bid_price)) / 2) * 10000, bid_price > 0 AND ask_price > bid_price), 2) AS avg_spread_bps,
    round(avgIf((toFloat64(ask_size) + toFloat64(bid_size)) / 2, bid_price > 0 AND ask_price > bid_price), 0) AS avg_depth,
    countIf(NOT (bid_price > 0 AND ask_price > bid_price)) AS dropped_invalid
FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND sip_timestamp >= '2026-06-12 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-08 00:00:00'
  AND (toHour(sip_timestamp) * 60 + toMinute(sip_timestamp)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
GROUP BY session_date
ORDER BY session_date

Chaguzi: Puts kwa bei ya IPO, hakuna 0DTE ya kufanya biashara

Mnamo Julai 7, mkataba ulio na shughuli nyingi zaidi wa SPCX ulikuwa 330-strike call (mikataba 28906), na 150-strike put — mikataba 21261 — umekaa haswa kwenye bei ya ufunguzi ya IPO ya $150. Mikataba yote mitano iliyo na shughuli nyingi zaidi inaisha tarehe 2026-07-10, Ijumaa ya kila wiki: SPCX inaorodhesha mikataba ya kila wiki na ya kila mwezi, kwa hivyo kikao cha Jumanne hakina mkataba wa siku hiyo hiyo 0DTE wa kufanya biashara. Uwiano wa kiasi cha put/call ulihama kutoka 0.61 mnamo Julai 1 hadi 0.83 mnamo Julai 7.

UlizaJulai 7: mikataba 10 bora ya chaguo la SPCX kwa kiasi
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    concat('20', substring(ticker, 7, 2), '-', substring(ticker, 9, 2), '-', substring(ticker, 11, 2)) AS expiry_date,
    if(substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'C', 'call', 'put') AS call_or_put,
    toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8)) / 1000 AS strike,
    concat(toString(toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8)) / 1000), '-strike ', if(substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'C', 'call', 'put')) AS label,
    sum(size) AS volume,
    round(sum(toFloat64(size) * toFloat64(price)) / 1e6, 2) AS notional_m,
    if(substring(ticker, 7, 6) = '260710', 1, 0) AS expires_jul10
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE ticker LIKE 'O:SPCX%'
  AND length(ticker) = 21
  AND sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-07 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-08 00:00:00'
GROUP BY expiry_date, call_or_put, strike, label, expires_jul10
ORDER BY volume DESC
LIMIT 10
UlizaUwiano wa kiasi cha kuweka/wito kwa kipindi
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    toDate(toTimeZone(sip_timestamp, 'America/New_York')) AS session_date,
    round(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P') / sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'C'), 2) AS pc_ratio,
    sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'C') AS call_vol,
    sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P') AS put_vol
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE ticker LIKE 'O:SPCX%'
  AND length(ticker) = 21
  AND sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-08 00:00:00'
GROUP BY session_date
ORDER BY session_date

Nukuu za chaguo zilibaki pana

Wakati uenezi wa hisa ulipungua hadi pointi za msingi za tarakimu moja, msururu wa chaguo ulinukuliwa pana kote: uenezi wa wastani ulionukuliwa katika mikataba ya SPCX ulipima 1086.65 bps Julai 1, 1059.11 Julai 2, na 1183.25 bps Julai 6 — mara mamia ya uenezi wa hisa yenyewe siku hizo hizo (paneli zote mbili zina nakala za uthibitisho). Ukubwa wa wastani kwenye nukuu bora ulikuwa 231 mikataba Julai 1 na 200 Julai 6. Nukuu za chaguo za Julai 7 hazikuwa zimeingizwa wakati wa uandishi — jedwali hilo lina muda mrefu zaidi wa kuchelewa kwenye ghala — kwa hivyo paneli hii inasimama Julai 6 na inasema hivyo.

UlizaKuenea kwa nukuu za chaguo kwa kipindi, Julai 1-6 (Julai 7 bado haijaingizwa wakati wa uandishi)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    toDate(toTimeZone(sip_timestamp, 'America/New_York')) AS session_date,
    round(avgIf((toFloat64(ask_price) - toFloat64(bid_price)) / ((toFloat64(ask_price) + toFloat64(bid_price)) / 2) * 10000, bid_price > 0 AND ask_price > bid_price), 2) AS opt_spread_bps,
    round(avgIf((toFloat64(ask_size) + toFloat64(bid_size)) / 2, bid_price > 0 AND ask_price > bid_price), 0) AS avg_size,
    countIf(NOT (bid_price > 0 AND ask_price > bid_price)) AS dropped_invalid,
    count() AS quotes
FROM global_markets.cache_options_quotes
WHERE ticker LIKE 'O:SPCX%'
  AND sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-07 00:00:00'
  AND (toHour(sip_timestamp) * 60 + toMinute(sip_timestamp)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
GROUP BY session_date
ORDER BY session_date

SPY haijabadilika sana

Katika kipindi cha Juni 12 hadi Julai 7, SPY ilipanda 0.94% (kutoka kufunguliwa kwa saa za kawaida hadi kufungwa kwa saa za kawaida). Kwa kila kikao mwezi Julai, tofauti inaonekana wazi: mnamo Julai 7, SPY ilirekodi -0.34% kutoka kufunguliwa hadi kufungwa huku SPCX ikirekodi -5.87%.

UlizaSPY dhidi ya SPCX wazi hadi kufunga, saa za kawaida (vipindi vya Julai)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    a.session_date AS session_date,
    round(a.spx_pct, 2) AS spy_pct,
    round(b.spcx_pct, 2) AS spcx_pct
FROM (
    SELECT
        toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS session_date,
        (toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)) / toFloat64(argMin(open, window_start)) - 1) * 100 AS spx_pct
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-08 00:00:00'
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    GROUP BY session_date
) a
INNER JOIN (
    SELECT
        toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS session_date,
        (toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)) / toFloat64(argMin(open, window_start)) - 1) * 100 AS spcx_pct
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
      AND window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-08 00:00:00'
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    GROUP BY session_date
) b ON a.session_date = b.session_date
ORDER BY a.session_date

Kile ambacho chanzo cha habari kinaonyesha kuhusu kushuka kwa thamani

Vichwa vya habari vinaweza kuhesabiwa. Chanzo cha mtoa huduma hubeba makala 398 zenye lebo ya SPCX kuanzia siku ya kuorodheshwa hadi Julai 7, kutoka kwa wachapishaji 4 pekee — The Motley Fool pekee aliandika 71.1% kati yao. Siku yenye shughuli nyingi zaidi ya utangazaji ilikuwa siku ya kuorodheshwa yenyewe — makala 42 mnamo Juni 12, 31 katika kipindi cha kilele cha Juni 16 — na hakuna siku iliyofuata iliyokaribia makala 13 ya hesabu ya siku ya IPO. Utangazaji ulipungua sambamba na bei: makala 25.7 kwa siku katika wiki ya kwanza, 9.3 katika wiki ya mwisho. Makala 84 yana lebo pamoja na Tesla; 20 yana "Nasdaq" katika kichwa. Hakuna siku kuu ya kichwa cha habari inayoonekana katika kushuka — umakini ulipungua; haukuwahi kuongezeka kwa kasi.

UlizaUmakini wa mfumo wa habari katika safari ya pande zote: hesabu, mkusanyiko, na kufifia
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH daily_counts AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')) AS d, count() AS n
    FROM global_markets.stocks_news
    WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX')
      AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-06-12 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-08 04:00:00')
    GROUP BY d
),
top_pub AS (
    SELECT JSONExtractString(publisher, 'name') AS p, count() AS n
    FROM global_markets.stocks_news
    WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX')
      AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-06-12 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-08 04:00:00')
    GROUP BY p ORDER BY n DESC, p ASC LIMIT 1
)
SELECT
    count() AS total_articles,
    uniqExact(JSONExtractString(publisher, 'name')) AS publishers,
    (SELECT p FROM top_pub) AS top_publisher,
    round(100.0 * (SELECT n FROM top_pub) / count(), 1) AS top_publisher_share_pct,
    (SELECT toMonth(argMax(d, (n, -toInt32(toDayOfYear(d))))) FROM daily_counts) AS busiest_month,
    (SELECT toDayOfMonth(argMax(d, (n, -toInt32(toDayOfYear(d))))) FROM daily_counts) AS busiest_dom,
    countIf(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')) = toDate('2026-06-12')) AS ipo_day_articles,
    countIf(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')) = toDate('2026-06-16')) AS peak_session_articles,
    countIf(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')) = toDate('2026-07-07')) AS jul7_articles,
    (SELECT max(n) FROM daily_counts WHERE d > toDate('2026-06-16')) AS max_daily_after_peak,
    countIf(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')) = toDate('2026-06-12')) - (SELECT max(n) FROM daily_counts WHERE d > toDate('2026-06-16')) AS ipo_day_minus_max_after,
    (SELECT round(avg(n), 1) FROM daily_counts WHERE d <= toDate('2026-06-18')) AS first_week_avg,
    (SELECT round(avg(n), 1) FROM daily_counts WHERE d >= toDate('2026-07-01')) AS final_week_avg,
    countIf(has(tickers, 'TSLA')) AS tsla_co_tagged,
    countIf(positionCaseInsensitive(title, 'nasdaq') > 0) AS nasdaq_titled
FROM global_markets.stocks_news
WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX')
  AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-06-12 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-08 04:00:00')

Fomu Moja ya 4, kisha utupu wa uwasilishaji

Fomu 4 ni hati ambayo mfanyabiashara wa ndani wa kampuni huwasilisha ndani ya siku mbili za kazi baada ya kununua au kuuza hisa za kampuni. Kati ya tarehe 12 Juni na 7 Julai, faharasa ya uwasilishaji ya EDGAR inaonyesha 10 uwasilishaji wa SPCX: 6 ripoti za sasa za 8-K, Fomu moja ya 3 (taarifa ya awali ya umiliki), 2 nyaraka za utoaji kutoka wiki ya kuorodheshwa, na hasa 1 Fomu 4 — iliyowekwa tarehe 17 Juni, siku ya kalenda iliyofuata kilele. Faharasa inarekodi aina ya fomu na tarehe pekee — ukweli, si hukumu. Ukweli mkubwa zaidi ni ukimya unaofuata: uwasilishaji wa mwisho wa SPCX katika kipindi hicho umewekwa tarehe Juni 26, na wiki moja na nusu ya mwisho — kipindi ambacho hasa kilivunja rekodi ya IPO — kinaonyesha 0 uwasilishaji — utupu wa ufichuzi, si wimbi la mauzo ya ndani yaliyofichuliwa.

UlizaKila uwasilishaji wa SPCX katika faharasa ya EDGAR, Juni 12 hadi Julai 7, kwenye safu moja
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    count() AS total_filings,
    countIf(form_type = '4') AS form4_filings,
    countIf(form_type = '3') AS form3_filings,
    countIf(form_type = '8-K') AS eightk_filings,
    countIf(form_type NOT IN ('4', '3', '8-K')) AS other_filings,
    toMonth(maxIf(filing_date, form_type = '4')) AS form4_month,
    toDayOfMonth(maxIf(filing_date, form_type = '4')) AS form4_dom,
    toString(max(filing_date)) AS last_filing,
    toMonth(max(filing_date)) AS last_filing_month,
    toDayOfMonth(max(filing_date)) AS last_filing_dom,
    countIf(filing_date > toDate('2026-06-26')) AS filings_after_jun26
FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND filing_date >= toDate('2026-06-12') AND filing_date <= toDate('2026-07-07')

Je, safari za IPO kwa kawaida huchukua muda gani?

SPCX ilichukua vipindi 16 vya biashara kufunga chini ya bei yake ya kwanza ya umma. Jedwali lililo hapa chini linatumia kipimo sawa kwa IPO nne za hivi karibuni za Marekani zenye umaarufu mkubwa — CoreWeave, Klarna, Medline, na Cerebras: inachukua bei ya kwanza ya saa za kawaida za biashara kwa kila hisa, kisha inahesabu vipindi hadi kufunga kwa saa za kawaida kunapotokea chini ya bei hiyo, kwa kila hisa katika siku zake 30% za kwanza za kalenda (kipindi cha SPCX yenyewe hadi Julai 7). Klarna ilifungua 89.2% juu ya bei yake ya toleo na kufunga chini ya bei yake ya kwanza katika kipindi chake cha kwanza; Cerebras ilifungua 2.5% juu ya bei ya toleo na ikafanya vivyo hivyo; CoreWeave ilifungua 2 chini ya bei ya toleo na ikavunja katika kipindi cha 16. Medline haikuvunja kamwe ndani ya dirisha lake la vipindi 50.4%. Kushikilia kwa SPCX kulikuwa kwa muda mrefu zaidi kati ya hizo nne zilizovunja — safari yenyewe ni ya kawaida; mchepuo wa 50.4% katikati ndio ulioitofautisha hii. Mapitio ya soko la IPO kwa nusu ya kwanza ya 2026 yana takwimu za soko la baada ya mauzo.

UlizaVipindi kutoka kwenye orodha hadi kufunga kwa kwanza chini ya chapisho la kwanza: SPCX dhidi ya IPOs nne za hivi karibuni
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH daily AS (
    SELECT ticker,
        toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS session_date,
        argMin(toFloat64(open), window_start) AS rth_open,
        argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) AS rth_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ((ticker = 'CRWV' AND window_start >= '2025-03-28 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2025-04-23 00:00:00')
        OR (ticker = 'KLAR' AND window_start >= '2025-09-10 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2025-10-06 00:00:00')
        OR (ticker = 'MDLN' AND window_start >= '2025-12-17 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-01-12 00:00:00')
        OR (ticker = 'CBRS' AND window_start >= '2026-05-14 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-09 00:00:00')
        OR (ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= '2026-06-12 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-08 00:00:00'))
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    GROUP BY ticker, session_date
),
w AS (
    SELECT ticker, session_date, rth_close,
        row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY session_date) AS rn,
        first_value(rth_open) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY session_date) AS d1_open
    FROM daily
),
agg AS (
    SELECT ticker,
        min(session_date) AS first_session,
        any(d1_open) AS day1_open,
        count() AS sessions_in_window,
        countIf(rth_close < d1_open) AS closes_below,
        minIf(toInt32(rn), rth_close < d1_open) AS break_rn
    FROM w GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT a.ticker AS ticker,
    toString(a.first_session) AS listed,
    round(l.issue_px, 2) AS issue_price,
    round(a.day1_open, 2) AS first_rth_open,
    round((a.day1_open / l.issue_px - 1) * 100, 1) AS open_vs_issue_pct,
    round(abs((a.day1_open / l.issue_px - 1) * 100), 1) AS open_vs_issue_pct_abs,
    a.sessions_in_window AS sessions_in_window,
    a.closes_below AS closes_below_first_print,
    if(a.closes_below > 0, toString(a.break_rn), 'never in window') AS first_break,
    a.break_rn AS break_session_n
FROM agg a
INNER JOIN (
    SELECT ticker, min(listing_date) AS ld, argMin(toFloat64(final_issue_price), listing_date) AS issue_px
    FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPCX', 'CBRS', 'MDLN', 'CRWV', 'KLAR') AND listing_date >= '2025-01-01' AND ipo_status = 'history'
    GROUP BY ticker
) l ON a.ticker = l.ticker
ORDER BY a.first_session

Maswali Yanayoulizwa Mara kwa Mara

Hisa za SpaceX zilishuka kwa kiasi gani kutoka kileleni mwake?

SPCX ilifikia kilele cha $225.64 mnamo Juni 16, 2026 na kufunga kwa $149.58 mnamo Julai 7, 2026 — hii ni 33.7% ya kushuka kutoka kileleni hadi kufunga huko.

Je, hisa za SpaceX ziliwahi kushuka chini ya bei yake ya IPO?

Ndiyo — mara mbili. Bei za kipindi cha kawaida chini ya bei ya ufunguzi ya IPO ya $150 zilionekana mapema kama siku ya kwanza ya biashara (Juni 12 chini $149.34) na tena mnamo Juni 23 (chini ya kipindi $147.11), na mnamo Julai 7 hisa ilifunga chini yake, kwa $149.58. Bei ya toleo ya $135 ni mstari tofauti: SPCX haijafanya biashara karibu nayo.

Je, kushuka kwa SPCX kulikuwa ni hatua ya soko zima?

Hapana. Katika kipindi hicho hicho, SPY ilipanda 0.94%, na mnamo Julai 7 yenyewe, SPY ilichapisha -0.34% kutoka ufunguzi hadi kufunga wakati SPCX ilichapisha -5.87%.

Je, watu wa ndani wa SpaceX waliuza wakati wa kushuka kwa hisa?

Fahirisi ya uwasilishaji ya SEC inaonyesha 1 ya Fomu 4 ya SPCX — fomu ya miamala ya watu wa ndani — kati ya kuorodheshwa na Julai 7, iliyowekwa tarehe Juni 17, 2026, na 0 ya uwasilishaji wowote wa SPCX baada ya Juni 26. Fahirisi haibeba mwelekeo wa miamala: rekodi inaonyesha uwasilishaji mmoja wa watu wa ndani karibu na kilele na hakuna wakati wa kipindi kikali cha kushuka.

Je, hisa za IPO hukaa juu ya bei yao ya kwanza ya biashara kwa muda gani?

Mara nyingi si muda mrefu. Ikilinganishwa kwa usawa katika orodha nne za 2025–26 zenye umaarufu mkubwa, Klarna na Cerebras zilifunga chini ya chapisho lao la kwanza la kipindi cha kawaida katika kipindi chao cha kwanza na CoreWeave katika kipindi 2, wakati SPCX ilishikilia hadi kipindi 16 na Medline haikuwa imevunja ndani ya vipindi vyake 16 vya kwanza.

Vidokezo vya data

  • Uthibitishaji wa huluki (alama iliyotumiwa tena): alama ya SPCX hapo awali ilitambua kampuni isiyohusiana ambayo rekodi zake ziliendesha hadi Aprili 2026; hakuna chochote kabla ya tarehe 12 Juni 2026 kinachohusishwa na SpaceX. Kipokezi cha bei ya toleo kwenye ubao wa alama kinasomeka rekodi ya stocks_ipos (Space Exploration Technologies Corp., iliyoorodheshwa 2026-06-12); uchunguzi wa kina wa mwezi wa kwanza una uthibitishaji kamili wa rekodi.
  • Kilele kilipita ukaguzi wa mseto wa chapa moja: kilele cha $225.64 kilichapishwa kwa dakika mbili mfululizo (10:02–10:03 asubuhi kwa saa za Mashariki katika kipindi cha kilele) huku baa za jirani zikiwa ndani ya takriban dola mbili — kiwango cha juu kilichofuatiliwa, si chapa iliyotengwa.
  • Paneli za nukuu hazijumuishi rekodi za upande mmoja, zilizovuka, au zilizofungwa na zinahesabu kile wanachotupa katika safu ya dropped_invalid ya paneli hiyo hiyo.
  • Nukuu za OPTION za Julai 7 hazikuwa zimewasili wakati wa uandishi — cache_options_quotes ina ucheleweshaji mrefu zaidi wa kuingiza data kwenye ghala; paneli ya nukuu za chaguo inashughulikia Julai 1–6 na imeandikwa ipasavyo. Nukuu za hisa na biashara za Julai 7 zimekamilika.
  • Kiasi ni jumla ya baa za dakika kwa saa za kawaida pekee; chapa za muda ulioongezwa (ikijumuisha kiwango cha chini cha kabla ya soko la Juni 23 kilichotajwa katika chapisho la mwezi wa kwanza) ziko nje ya kila paneli kwenye ukurasa huu.
  • Hesabu za habari ni mlisho wa mchuuzi mmoja, zilizowekwa katika vikundi kwa siku ya kalenda ya New York; The Motley Fool iliandika 71.1% ya makala yaliyowekwa alama — hesabu hupima umakini wa mlisho, si umuhimu.
  • Fahirisi ya EDGAR ina aina ya fomu, tarehe, na URL pekee. Hakuna chochote hapa kinachodai mwelekeo wa Fomu 4 ya Juni 17.
  • Ulinganisho wa safari ya kwenda na kurudi huchunguza siku 26 za kwanza za kalenda za kila hisa — "kamwe katika dirisha" inamaanisha hivyo hasa; kila mfululizo huanza katika tarehe yake ya kujiorodhesha, kwa hivyo hakuna rekodi za kabla ya kujiorodhesha zinazovuja.

Mbinu

  • SPCX ilifanya biashara kwa vipindi 16 kuanzia Juni 12 hadi Julai 7, 2026 — kufungwa kwa Juni 19 (Juneteenth) na Julai 3 (Siku ya Uhuru) kulithibitishwa kutoka kwa baa zilizozingatiwa, kamwe hazikukadiriwa. Nyakati zimehifadhiwa kwa UTC na kubadilishwa kuwa wakati wa New York ndani ya maswali; saa za kawaida ni 13:30–19:59 UTC (9:30 a.m.–4:00 p.m. ET wakati wa kiangazi); "kufunga" kunamaanisha baa ya dakika ya mwisho ya kipindi cha kawaida; bei zinatokana na mtazamo wa pamoja uliocheleweshwa.
  • Safu wima za desimali hutupwa kwa kuelea kwa biti 64 kabla ya hesabu za uwiano. Mwisho wa chaguo, aina, na bei ya utekelezaji huchambuliwa kutoka kwa ticker ya OCC (nafasi 7/13/14 kwa mzizi huu wa herufi nne; length(ticker) = 21 huweka mzizi haswa, kwa hivyo mizizi inayofanana haiwezi kuingia).
  • Hii ni chapisho lililobandikwa: kila swala hutumia herufi za tarehe wazi na hutoa takwimu hizi kwa tarehe yoyote ya baadaye. Hali ya ghala kufikia Julai 9, 2026.

Chapisho hili ni la tatu katika mfululizo wa SPCX, likifuata uchambuzi wa kina wa mwezi wa kwanza na biashara ya kuongeza fahirisi ya Nasdaq-100. Kila takwimu ni matokeo ya swala yaliyohifadhiwa — endesha SQL mwenyewe kwenye terminal ya Strasmore.

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