Event Contracts vs Stock Options
The same $700 at expiry: a YES contract against a $100/$105 call verticaltable ·
2026-10-04 · 31×3
One at-the-money AAPL call, tracked against its stock from May 2026series ·
2026-10-04 · 23×3
Call delta across strikes, 20 to 45 days to expiryranking ·
2026-10-04 · 10×2
What an at-the-money call costs, as a percent of the share priceranking ·
2026-10-04 · 6×3
Event Contract Collateral and Max Loss
Return on collateral for each side, by contract priceranking ·
2026-10-04 · 13×4
Near the money SPY put marks, May to June 2026series ·
2026-10-04 · 41×4
Buyer and seller collateral at every contract priceranking ·
2026-10-04 · 19×4
Short dated Treasury yields, trailing 18 monthsseries ·
2026-10-04 · 18×4
A 60 cent contract, annualised across holding periodsranking ·
2026-10-04 · 7×3
One API for Kalshi and Polymarket: 4 Gaps
Price grid by venue: smallest increment and distinguishable price pointsranking ·
2026-10-02 · 2×3
How Are Event Contracts Taxed? 60/40 or Not
Illustrative at a 37% ordinary rate: tax on a $10,000 gain, and the deductible part of a $10,000 loss with no offsetting gainsranking ·
2026-10-02 · 3×3
How to Read an Event Contract Ladder
One threshold, re-read every session: implied probability above a fixed strikeseries ·
2026-10-01 · 28×3
A real strike ladder: SPY call prices by threshold, one pinned sessionranking ·
2026-10-01 · 12×3
Ladder audit by expiration: rung count, ordering breaks, and probability inside the 8% bandseries ·
2026-10-01 · 5×4
Differencing the rungs: probability above each threshold, and the bucket between themranking ·
2026-10-01 · 11×3
Market Making in Prediction Markets
Quoted spread and quoted size through one KO session, by New York clockseries ·
2026-09-24 · 32×3
Call delta and put delta at matched strikes, SPY, 20 to 45 days outtable ·
2026-09-24 · 11×5
Where traded contracts sat, session by session, into one SPY expiryseries ·
2026-09-24 · 31×5
Implied volatility and delta sensitivity by time left, near-the-money SPYranking ·
2026-09-24 · 6×4
Brier Score: How to Grade a Forecast
Brier score of the market's own stated probability, by underlyingranking ·
2026-08-13 · 6×4
The market's Brier score across expiry horizons, SPYranking ·
2026-08-13 · 6×4
SPY option deltas against how often those contracts finished in the moneyranking ·
2026-08-13 · 10×4
How to De-Vig Betting Odds Into Probabilities
Implied probability by quote format, illustrative quotesranking ·
2026-08-11 · 5×2
De-vig methods on one lopsided market, -750 against +475ranking ·
2026-08-11 · 4×3
Book sum and overround on four illustrative marketsranking ·
2026-08-11 · 4×3
How Event Contracts Settle: Payout and Fees
Final-day call prices by where the strike sat against the priceranking ·
2026-08-09 · 12×3
Traded price against intrinsic value, by days to expirytable ·
2026-08-09 · 30×4
Where SPY option volume sits across the last 30 days of contract lifetable ·
2026-08-09 · 30×2
Event Contract Prices as Probabilities
Yes and No probabilities across one SPY chain: call side, put side, and the pair totaltable ·
2026-08-03 · 8×5
How a near coin flip resolves: average implied probability by checkpoint, split by outcomeranking ·
2026-08-03 · 6×4
Contracts priced near a coin flip: implied vs realized outcome by name, 2023 through June 2026ranking ·
2026-08-03 · 6×4
Implied probability vs what happened: SPY calls 30 days from expiry, 2022 through June 2026ranking ·
2026-08-03 · 10×4
The same $700 at expiry: a YES contract against a $100/$105 call vertical
The same $700 at expiry: a YES contract against a $100/$105 call vertical
| close_price | yes_contract_dollars | call_vertical_dollars |
|---|---|---|
| $95 | 0 | 0 |
| $95.5 | 0 | 0 |
| $96 | 0 | 0 |
| $96.5 | 0 | 0 |
| $97 | 0 | 0 |
| $97.5 | 0 | 0 |
| $98 | 0 | 0 |
| $98.5 | 0 | 0 |
| $99 | 0 | 0 |
| $99.5 | 0 | 0 |
| $100 | 0 | 0 |
| $100.5 | 1000 | 100 |
| $101 | 1000 | 200 |
| $101.5 | 1000 | 300 |
| $102 | 1000 | 400 |
| $102.5 | 1000 | 500 |
| $103 | 1000 | 600 |
| $103.5 | 1000 | 700 |
| $104 | 1000 | 800 |
| $104.5 | 1000 | 900 |
| $105 | 1000 | 1000 |
| $105.5 | 1000 | 1000 |
| $106 | 1000 | 1000 |
| $106.5 | 1000 | 1000 |
| $107 | 1000 | 1000 |
| $107.5 | 1000 | 1000 |
| $108 | 1000 | 1000 |
| $108.5 | 1000 | 1000 |
| $109 | 1000 | 1000 |
| $109.5 | 1000 | 1000 |
| $110 | 1000 | 1000 |
the exact SQL behind every number
SELECT
concat('$', toString(toDecimal32(px, 2))) AS close_price,
if(px > 100, 1000, 0) AS yes_contract_dollars,
toUInt32(round(200 * least(greatest(px - 100, 0), 5))) AS call_vertical_dollars
FROM
(
SELECT 95 + arrayJoin(range(31)) * 0.5 AS px
)
ORDER BY px
More from this analysisEvent Contracts vs Stock Options
One at-the-money AAPL call, tracked against its stock from May 2026
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