event contracts — 18 answered market questions

Return on collateral for each side, by contract price

most recentas of 2026-08-22 ranking 13×4read in context →

Return on collateral for each side, by contract price — 13 rows by 4 columns, computed 2026-08-22 from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
price_cents	buyer_return_on_collateral_pct	seller_return_on_collateral_pct	breakeven_probability_pct
20	400	25	20
25	300	33.3	25
30	233.3	42.9	30
35	185.7	53.8	35
40	150	66.7	40
45	122.2	81.8	45
50	100	100	50
55	81.8	122.2	55
60	66.7	150	60
65	53.8	185.7	65
70	42.9	233.3	70
75	33.3	300	75
80	25	400	80

the exact SQL behind every number

SELECT
    price_cents,
    round(100 * (100 - price_cents) / price_cents, 1) AS buyer_return_on_collateral_pct,
    round(100 * price_cents / (100 - price_cents), 1) AS seller_return_on_collateral_pct,
    price_cents                                       AS breakeven_probability_pct
FROM
(
    SELECT arrayJoin(range(20, 85, 5)) AS price_cents
)
ORDER BY price_cents

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