Traded price against intrinsic value, by days to expiry
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-09, from How Event Contracts Settle: Payout and Fees.
| days_to_expiry | avg_traded_price | avg_intrinsic_value | avg_gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.65 | 2.52 | 1.13 |
| 2 | 4.53 | 2.77 | 1.76 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.06 | 2.05 |
| 4 | 5.28 | 3.08 | 2.2 |
| 5 | 5.69 | 3.08 | 2.61 |
| 6 | 6.29 | 3.13 | 3.16 |
| 7 | 6.83 | 3.27 | 3.56 |
| 8 | 7.16 | 3.17 | 4 |
| 9 | 7.49 | 3.1 | 4.39 |
| 10 | 7.87 | 3.22 | 4.66 |
| 11 | 8.01 | 3.17 | 4.85 |
| 12 | 7.96 | 2.77 | 5.19 |
| 13 | 8.28 | 2.63 | 5.65 |
| 14 | 9.13 | 3.28 | 5.86 |
| 15 | 9.79 | 3.38 | 6.41 |
| 16 | 9.77 | 3.27 | 6.5 |
| 17 | 10.35 | 3.32 | 7.03 |
| 18 | 10.74 | 3.34 | 7.41 |
| 19 | 12.99 | 3.35 | 9.64 |
| 20 | 12.16 | 3.34 | 8.82 |
| 21 | 11.53 | 3.39 | 8.14 |
| 22 | 11.67 | 3.29 | 8.38 |
| 23 | 11.9 | 3.37 | 8.53 |
| 24 | 12.05 | 3.26 | 8.8 |
| 25 | 12.34 | 3.26 | 9.08 |
| 26 | 12.07 | 3.19 | 8.88 |
| 27 | 13.36 | 3.43 | 9.93 |
| 28 | 12.66 | 3.16 | 9.5 |
| 29 | 13.17 | 3.26 | 9.91 |
| 30 | 13.41 | 3.23 | 10.18 |
- Rows × columns
- 30 × 4
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
days_to_expiry |
number | 1 to 30 | |
avg_traded_price |
number | 3.65 to 13.41 | US dollars |
avg_intrinsic_value |
number | 2.52 to 3.43 | |
avg_gap |
number | 1.13 to 10.18 |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
the exact SQL behind every number
SELECT
days_to_expiry,
round(avg(price), 2) AS avg_traded_price,
round(avg(payoff_now), 2) AS avg_intrinsic_value,
round(avg(abs(price - payoff_now)), 2) AS avg_gap
FROM
(
SELECT
days_to_expiry,
toFloat64(option_close) AS price,
greatest(
if(option_type IN ('call', 'C'),
toFloat64(underlying_close) - toFloat64(strike_price),
toFloat64(strike_price) - toFloat64(underlying_close)),
0.0) AS payoff_now
FROM global_markets.options_greeks
WHERE underlying_symbol = 'SPY'
AND date >= '2026-01-02'
AND date < '2026-07-01'
AND volume > 0
AND iv_converged = 1
AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 0 AND 30
AND abs(toFloat64(strike_price) / toFloat64(underlying_close) - 1) < 0.02
)
GROUP BY days_to_expiry
ORDER BY days_to_expiry
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