Yes and No probabilities across one SPY chain: call side, put side, and the pair total
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-03, from Event Contract Prices as Probabilities.
| strike_vs_spot | yes_prob_pct | no_prob_pct | pair_total_pct | strikes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -8% vs spot | 91.6 | 7.8 | 99.5 | 4 |
| -6% vs spot | 91.2 | 11.5 | 102.7 | 5 |
| -4% vs spot | 80.6 | 18.3 | 98.9 | 13 |
| -2% vs spot | 68.8 | 29.8 | 98.6 | 13 |
| 0% vs spot | 54.1 | 45.7 | 99.8 | 15 |
| +2% vs spot | 36.2 | 63.3 | 99.5 | 11 |
| +4% vs spot | 18.4 | 81.9 | 100.3 | 7 |
| +6% vs spot | 3.6 | 82.5 | 86.2 | 1 |
- Rows × columns
- 8 × 5
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
strike_vs_spot |
text | 8 distinct values (+2% vs spot, +4% vs spot, +6% vs spot…) | |
yes_prob_pct |
number | 3.6 to 91.6 | percent |
no_prob_pct |
number | 7.8 to 82.5 | percent |
pair_total_pct |
number | 86.2 to 102.7 | percent |
strikes |
number | 1 to 15 |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
WITH chain AS (
SELECT strike_price,
toFloat64(any(underlying_close)) AS spot,
avgIf(delta, delta > 0) AS call_delta,
avgIf(-delta, delta < 0) AS put_delta_abs,
countIf(delta > 0) AS calls,
countIf(delta < 0) AS puts
FROM global_markets.options_greeks
WHERE underlying_symbol = 'SPY'
AND date = toDate('2026-06-30')
AND expiration_date = toDate('2026-07-31')
AND iv_converged = 1
AND volume > 0
GROUP BY strike_price
HAVING calls > 0 AND puts > 0
),
banded AS (
SELECT toInt32(round(100 * (toFloat64(strike_price) / spot - 1) / 2) * 2) AS band,
call_delta,
put_delta_abs
FROM chain
)
SELECT concat(if(band > 0, '+', ''), toString(band), '% vs spot') AS strike_vs_spot,
round(100 * avg(call_delta), 1) AS yes_prob_pct,
round(100 * avg(put_delta_abs), 1) AS no_prob_pct,
round(100 * avg(call_delta + put_delta_abs), 1) AS pair_total_pct,
count() AS strikes
FROM banded
WHERE abs(band) <= 8
GROUP BY band
ORDER BY band
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