Strasmore Research
Deep Dives · Matt ConnorBy Matt Connor · · Updated 2026-07-25

SPCX: 掛牌後首度跌破發行價

指數納入資金退潮，週內三度收在首筆成交價之下，週五更創掛牌新低，首份分析師評等與季報同步出爐。

SPCX 在 2026 年 7 月 6 日當週，做了年輕掛牌股不該做的事：跌破發行價。從前一週的 $161.86 收盤價起算，該股五個交易日下跌 -10.2% 至 $145.4 —— 在 3 個交易日中有 5 個交易日收在 $150 首筆成交價之下，並在週五創下掛牌後收盤新低。週初以指數納入資金的最後一波流入開場，週末則以掛牌以來最清淡的交易量作收，期間穿插首批分析師評等與上市後首份季度數據。以下每個數字皆來自儲存查詢——展開任一區塊即可查看 SQL。

首先，確認這是哪一個 SPCX

SPCX 代碼先前屬於另一檔不相關的證券，因此此處所有區間均以 2026 年 6 月 12 日掛牌的主體為準——太空探索技術公司（Space Exploration Technologies Corp.）（首月深度剖析 載有完整驗證）：

查詢該標的逐月交易歷史 — 缺口與新實體的到來
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    toStartOfMonth(window_start) AS month,
    count() AS minute_bars,
    round(min(toFloat64(low)), 2) AS low_usd,
    round(max(toFloat64(high)), 2) AS high_usd,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 2) AS shares_m
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2025-07-01 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
GROUP BY month
ORDER BY month

長達數月的空白是舊主體下市所致；自 2026 年 6 月起的大量成交條即為新主體——以下內容僅涉及這些交易紀錄。

一週摘要

查詢SPCX，2026年7月6日當週 — 跌幅，已記錄
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
WITH
    (
        SELECT argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
          AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    ) AS pw_close,
    (
        SELECT min(toFloat64(low)) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
    ) AS lo,
    (
        SELECT max(toFloat64(high)) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
    ) AS hi,
    (
        SELECT min(c) FROM (
            SELECT argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS c
            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
            WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-12 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
            GROUP BY toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))
        )
    ) AS prior_low_close,
    (
        SELECT countIf(c < 150) FROM (
            SELECT argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS c
            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
            WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
            GROUP BY toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))
        )
    ) AS closes_under_150
SELECT
    round(pw_close, 2) AS prior_week_close,
    round(toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)), 2) AS week_close,
    round((toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)) / pw_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS week_change_pct,
    round(hi, 2) AS week_high,
    round(lo, 2) AS week_low,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(minIf(window_start, toFloat64(low) <= lo + 0.011), 'America/New_York'), '%Y-%m-%d %H:%i') AS week_low_bar_et,
    countIf(toFloat64(close) < 150 AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS rth_minutes_below_150,
    150 AS underwater_threshold_usd,
    closes_under_150 AS closes_below_150,
    round(prior_low_close, 2) AS prior_closing_low,
    round(prior_low_close - toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)), 2) AS new_low_margin_usd,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / 1e9, 1) AS rth_dollar_bn,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS week_shares_m,
    uniqExact(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS session_days_observed
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')

本週-10.2%，最高 $167.9 至最低 $145.07（於 2026-07-10 15:59 ET 印出），且790 個常規交易時段分鐘低於 $150 首筆成交價。週五 $145.4 收盤價跌破上市後前次收盤低點 $152.74。

一則錨定註記：「水下」意指低於 6 月 12 日開盤集合競價價格——即公開市場買方首次支付的價格，記錄於首月深度剖析；相對於較低的發行價，上市後仍在水上。常規交易時段總成交金額：41.7B，橫跨 5 個交易日。

逐日拆解：資金流退潮

查詢SPCX 各交易時段 — 收盤價、變動、股數、成交金額
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    et_date,
    close_usd,
    round(if(prev_close = 0, NULL, (close_usd / prev_close - 1) * 100), 1) AS change_pct,
    shares_m,
    dollar_bn
FROM (
    SELECT et_date, close_usd, shares_m, dollar_bn,
           lagInFrame(close_usd) OVER (ORDER BY et_date ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_close
    FROM (
        SELECT
            toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
            round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199), 2) AS close_usd,
            round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m,
            round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS dollar_bn
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
        GROUP BY et_date
    )
)
WHERE et_date >= toDate('2026-07-06')
ORDER BY et_date

週一承接了 17.55B——這是指數納入資金流入的尾端，詳見指數納入深度解析。隨後資金流開始退場：週二 11.3B（當日為 -6.7% 個交易日，首次收在 150 美元以下，參見自高點回落紀要），至週五已縮減至 6.31B——約莫僅剩週一成交量的三分之一。週四 +2.6% 的反彈未能守住；週五收盤下跌 -4.4%，收在 $145.4。

新聞訊息流實際傳遞的內容

當行情下滑時，訊息流寫了些什麼？標題所承載的意涵，是單純計數無法呈現的。

查詢當週新聞流：則數，外加三則逐字引述的故事線記錄
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
WITH
    (
        SELECT (arrayElement(splitByString('. ', argMin(title, published_utc)), 1), toString(min(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')))))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX') AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
          AND title ILIKE '%quiet period%'
    ) AS quiet,
    (
        SELECT (arrayElement(splitByString('. ', argMin(title, published_utc)), 1), toString(min(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')))))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX') AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
          AND title ILIKE '%lost%revenue%'
    ) AS results,
    (
        SELECT (arrayElement(splitByString('. ', argMin(title, published_utc)), 1), toString(min(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')))))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX') AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
          AND title ILIKE '%borrowed%'
    ) AS borrow
SELECT
    count() AS week_articles,
    uniqExact(JSONExtractString(publisher, 'name')) AS publishers,
    countIf(title ILIKE '%nasdaq-100%') AS index_add_headlines,
    quiet.1 AS quiet_period_headline,
    quiet.2 AS quiet_period_date,
    results.1 AS results_headline,
    results.2 AS results_date,
    borrow.1 AS borrowing_headline,
    borrow.2 AS borrowing_date
FROM global_markets.stocks_news
WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX')
  AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00')
  AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')

來自 3 家發布商的 51 篇標記文章；三個主要敘事主導了標題。在 2026-07-07，訊息流自身的定調是「Analysts Go All-In on SpaceX as the Quiet Period Ends」——承銷商在 IPO 後的靜默期結束，評等報告出爐，這與 -6.7% 交易日發生在同一天。在 2026-07-09：「SpaceX Lost $4.28 Billion on $4.7 Billion in Revenue Last Quarter」——該股公開上市後的首份季度財報數據進入訊息流。與此同時，資產負債表相關的討論脈絡——「SpaceX Borrowed $25 Billion and Is Buying Up AI Companies」（2026-07-07）——以及 5 則聚焦於那斯達克 100 指數成分股納入本身的新聞標題。一貫的紀律：僅觀察單一聚合式訊息流的關注焦點，而非全球媒體——而股價下跌與這些敘事僅是時間上的巧合；本表格所能證明的，僅止於事件發生的時間重疊。

該實體迄今的完整週度表

查詢新實體生命中的每一週 — 開盤至收盤報酬與 RTH 成交金額（限該實體）
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    toString(wk) AS period_start,
    round(ret, 1) AS week_return_pct,
    round(dollar_bn, 1) AS week_rth_dollar_bn,
    sessions
FROM (
    SELECT toStartOfWeek(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), 1) AS wk,
           uniqExact(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS sessions,
           (argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / argMinIf(toFloat64(open), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) - 1) * 100 AS ret,
           sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / 1e9 AS dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-12 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
    GROUP BY wk
)
ORDER BY period_start

五個日曆週的存續期間，濃縮在一張小表格裡——上市首日衝高、觸頂、回落，然後來到現在：一個-12.4%的開盤至收盤週，成交額達41.7B美元。比較基準是該實體自身的歷史走勢，即時計算——每新增一週，仍會改寫五分之一的歷史記錄。

這種回落正常嗎？用同一把尺量其他六檔大型IPO

這是IPO之後正常的沉澱期，還是更糟的訊號？驗證方式：用同一項指標——常規交易時段第一筆成交價到第28天常規交易時段收盤價——來檢視過去兩年其他募資超過十億美元的大型IPO。

查詢近期大型首發，首月同一尺度：首筆交易至第28天收盤（美東常規交易時段）
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    b.ticker AS ticker,
    toString(any(i.ld)) AS listed,
    round(any(i.ipx), 2) AS issue_px,
    round(argMinIf(toFloat64(b.open), b.window_start, rth), 2) AS first_trade_open,
    round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(b.close), b.window_start, rth), 2) AS day28_close,
    round((argMaxIf(toFloat64(b.close), b.window_start, rth) / argMinIf(toFloat64(b.open), b.window_start, rth) - 1) * 100, 1) AS open_to_day28_pct,
    round((argMaxIf(toFloat64(b.close), b.window_start, rth) / any(i.ipx) - 1) * 100, 1) AS issue_to_day28_pct,
    toUInt8(b.ticker = 'SPCX') AS is_spcx
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs AS b
INNER JOIN (
    SELECT ticker, max(listing_date) AS ld, argMax(toFloat64(final_issue_price), listing_date) AS ipx
    FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPCX', 'CRWV', 'CBRS', 'KLAR', 'VG', 'MDLN', 'LINE')
    GROUP BY ticker
) AS i ON b.ticker = i.ticker
WHERE b.ticker IN ('SPCX', 'CRWV', 'CBRS', 'KLAR', 'VG', 'MDLN', 'LINE')
  AND b.window_start >= toDateTime('2024-07-25 00:00:00')
  AND b.window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
  AND toDate(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= i.ld
  AND toDate(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= i.ld + 28
  AND ((toHour(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS rth
GROUP BY b.ticker
ORDER BY open_to_day28_pct

用這把尺衡量，SPCX的-3.1%落在表格中段。VG（-36%）、CBRS（-35.1%）和KLAR（-18.9%）從首筆公開交易以來的跌幅都更深；MDLN則在頭一個月內上漲了23.9%。若改以發行價為基準，SPCX的+7.7%與這張表格中多數標的落點一致——高於發行價，低於開盤首筆成交價；VG是此處唯一一檔在第28天仍低於自身發行價的IPO。從這項證據來看，掛牌首月從開盤價回吐漲幅，是大型IPO常見的走勢形態，而非陷入困境的訊號。

仍是重量級——但光環漸褪

查詢當週常規交易時段成交金額最重的代碼 — 新進者目前的位置
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close)) / 1e9, 1) AS regular_hours_dollar_bn,
    round(100 * sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close)) / max(sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close))) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_leader,
    toUInt8(ticker = 'SPCX') AS is_spcx
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
  AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
GROUP BY ticker
ORDER BY regular_hours_dollar_bn DESC
LIMIT 12
查詢排名記錄：當週成交金額與所有其他代碼的對比
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
WITH (
    SELECT sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close))
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
) AS spcx_d
SELECT
    countIf(d > spcx_d AND ticker != 'SPCX') + 1 AS spcx_rank,
    round(spcx_d / 1e9, 1) AS spcx_dollar_bn,
    round(100 * spcx_d / max(d), 1) AS pct_of_leader
FROM (
    SELECT ticker, sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close)) AS d
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    GROUP BY ticker
)

本週以成交金額計排名第 eleventh ——仍位居全市場最重量的名單之列，相當於本週榜首的 25.4%，而六月上市後的窗口期，它曾躋身全市場前幾名。計算基礎：每個代碼在五個交易日的常規交易時段成交金額，標的納入條件為具備收據標記而非排除——本頁的主題正是該已驗證實體。

這卷磁帶的構成

查詢逐筆成交筆數結構與報價普查 — 全週
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
WITH
    (
        SELECT (round(count() / 1e6, 2),
                round(100.0 * countIf(bid_price > 0 AND ask_price > 0 AND ask_price > bid_price) / count(), 2))
        FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
          AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
    ) AS quote_census
SELECT
    round(count() / 1e6, 2) AS prints_m,
    quantileDeterministic(0.5)(toFloat64(size), toUInt64(abs(sequence_number))) AS median_print_shares,
    round(100.0 * countIf(size < 100) / count(), 1) AS odd_lot_pct_of_prints,
    quote_census.1 AS nbbo_updates_m,
    quote_census.2 AS clean_two_sided_pct
FROM global_markets.stocks_trades
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)

5.52 百萬筆成交，其中 80.1% 為畸零股，對應 2.2 百萬筆 NBBO 更新（99.35% 為乾淨的雙邊報價）。掛牌滿一個月，其微觀結構讀起來已與任何大型活躍股票無異。

價差：磨合仍在進行

查詢各交易時段中位數報價價差，常規交易時段（中點基點）
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    session,
    round(quantileDeterministicIf(0.5)((toFloat64(ask_price) - toFloat64(bid_price)) / ((toFloat64(ask_price) + toFloat64(bid_price)) / 2) * 10000, toUInt64(toUnixTimestamp64Micro(sip_timestamp)), bid_price > 0 AND ask_price >= bid_price), 2) AS med_spread_bps,
    count() AS quote_updates
FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 13:30:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
  AND (toHour(sip_timestamp) * 60 + toMinute(sip_timestamp)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
GROUP BY toDate(toTimeZone(sip_timestamp, 'America/New_York')) AS session
ORDER BY session

週一常規交易時段價差中位數以 3.12 個基點開盤，週中擴大至 4.07 個基點，週五回落至 2.7 個基點——一檔新掛牌標的的價差，即使在其價格下跌時，仍以大型知名標的的水準劇烈波動。流動性供給與價格走向是兩套不同的機制；本週將兩者清楚分開。

選擇權：賣權壓在市價下方，樂透買權高掛其上

查詢新實體選擇權，全週：合約量、買賣權比、最活躍合約
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
WITH
    (
        SELECT concat('$', toString(round(toFloat64(toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8))) / 1000, 2)),
               if(substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P', ' put', ' call'),
               ', expiry 20', substring(ticker, 7, 2), '-', substring(ticker, 9, 2), '-', substring(ticker, 11, 2))
        FROM global_markets.options_trades
        WHERE startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPCX') AND length(ticker) = 21
          AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
        GROUP BY ticker ORDER BY sum(size) DESC LIMIT 1
    ) AS busiest_name
SELECT
    round(sum(size) / 1e6, 2) AS contracts_traded_m,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P')) / toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'C')), 2) AS week_put_call_ratio,
    round(sum(toFloat64(price) * size) * 100 / 1e9, 2) AS premium_notional_busd,
    busiest_name AS busiest_contract
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPCX') AND length(ticker) = 21
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)

帳面成交 3.14 百萬口合約，賣權買權比為 0.8——買權仍多於賣權，但賣權比重遠高於一般個股（輝達同週帳面比率約為此數的一半）。比率無法說明賣權集中在哪裡，履約價分布圖則可以：

查詢當週各履約價區間合約量（$20區間；尾端上限設於$80與$240）
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    concat('$', toString(toUInt32(bucket))) AS strike_bucket,
    toUInt64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'C')) AS call_contracts,
    toUInt64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P')) AS put_contracts,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P') / sum(size), 1) AS put_share_pct,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 7, 6) <= '260717') / sum(size), 1) AS expiring_by_jul17_pct,
    round(100 * sum(size) / max(sum(size)) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_biggest_bucket
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPCX') AND length(ticker) = 21
  AND toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8)) > 0
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
GROUP BY least(greatest(floor(toFloat64(toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8))) / 1000 / 20) * 20, 80), 240) AS bucket
ORDER BY bucket

形狀是槓鈴型。在交易區間以下，帳面幾乎全是賣權：95.9% 口賣權落在 $120 區間（333149 口合約），其下每個區間賣權占比也超過九成。價平 $140 區間成交量居所有區間之冠——61.1% 口賣權，其中 83.2% 在 7 月 17 日前到期。區間以上方向反轉（15.5% 口賣權在 $160），遠端尾部幾乎全是買權：413356 口買權合約落在 $240 及以上區間，本週單一最熱絡合約（$450 call, expiry 2026-07-17）即在其中。這張表能說明的是：賣權堆在價平及以下——這是下檔保護的典型足跡——而遠價買權高掛在上。它無法說明的是：那些賣權是為現股避險，還是表達純粹看空立場；成交明細既不帶身分，也不帶意圖（賣權買權比解說文 即劃出此界線）。

這次有分母的空頭部位

查詢FINRA 當週每日放空量 — 放空股數及其場外交易佔比
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT toString(date) AS d,
       round(toFloat64(any(short_volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS short_shares_m,
       round(toFloat64(any(total_volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS offexchange_total_m,
       round(100 * toFloat64(any(short_volume)) / toFloat64(any(total_volume)), 1) AS short_pct_of_offexchange
FROM global_markets.stocks_short_volume
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND date >= toDate('2026-07-06') AND date <= toDate('2026-07-10')
GROUP BY date
ORDER BY date

申報空頭量從週一的 23.7M 股降至週五的 12.2M 股，跟隨整體成交筆數下滑；占場外交易量的比重則維持在 66.8% 附近 — 多半是造市商的運作機制（放空以滿足客戶買單），並非方向性押注，詳見空頭量說明。兩點提醒：7 月 7 日的全市場檔案送達時不完整（已於週報中記錄），因此當週僅顯示 4 個日檔案，而非五個 — 且空頭量是流量，不是持倉。持倉數據在空頭部位序列中：

查詢新實體迄今的放空餘額記錄，附推算回補天數
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT toString(settlement_date) AS settlement,
       round(toFloat64(max(short_interest)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_short_m,
       round(toFloat64(max(avg_daily_volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS avg_daily_volume_m,
       max(days_to_cover) AS vendor_days_to_cover,
       round(toFloat64(max(short_interest)) / toFloat64(max(avg_daily_volume)), 2) AS implied_days_to_cover
FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND settlement_date >= toDate('2026-06-01') AND settlement_date <= toDate('2026-06-30')
GROUP BY settlement_date
ORDER BY settlement_date

在 2026-06-15 與 2026-06-30 兩次結算之間，放空股數從 23.3M 股增至 111.3M 股 — 但分母才是關鍵：對照數據商 151.6M 股的日均量，隱含的回補天數僅 0.73（數據商自身欄位下限為 1）— 整個空頭部位可在一個普通交易日內全數回補。有一項揭露值得注意：自首月頁面首次發布以來，來源已對 6 月 15 日的數據進行過一次重編 — 這些數字是其當前記錄，每次重新生成時均經重新運算與邊界檢查。

後續觀察重點

四條線索仍在發展。指數納入的買盤是一次性機制——指數基金在納入時買進，之後就持有——因此週一的 17.55B 成交量是該機制不會再重建的上限。7 月 17 日到期將消化大部分價平選擇權交易量（最大履約價區間的 83.2%）；賣權牆在何處重建，是判斷避險買盤是否持續的最清晰訊號。下一份放空餘額報告將依FINRA 常規延遲發布，屆時將顯示放空股數在跌勢中是否持續增加。而每檔 IPO 的既定供給日期——即閉鎖期屆滿——將在下方常見問題中說明。

常見問題

SPCX 是否仍高於其 IPO 價格？

高於發行價，但低於首筆公開交易價格。SPCX 本週收於 $145.4 — 較 $135 的發行價高出 7.7%，但低於 $150 的開盤集合競價價格，即 6 月 12 日公開交易開始時的價格。

SPCX 的賣權/買權比率實際上代表什麼？

每交易一單位買權對應 0.8 單位賣權 — 買權交易量仍多於賣權，但此比率大約是 輝達選擇權帳簿 同一週偏斜程度的兩倍。僅憑比率本身無法區分避險操作與看空押注；從履約價分佈圖可見，賣權集中於市價及以下價位，這正是保護性策略的型態。

為何指數納入帶來的買盤消失了？

指數納入是一次性的再平衡事件：追蹤基金在生效日附近買入，之後便單純持有。7 月 6 日的鉅額收盤集合競價就是那次買入動作；此機制不會再次買進。

6 月的首筆交易價格是 SPCX 的支撐價位嗎？

那個 $150 的價位是 6 月 12 日開盤集合競價的成交點 — 這是一個參考點，而非機械性的底部。本週盤中常規交易時段有 790 分鐘低於此價位，且有 3 次收於其下，因此作為一個硬支撐，它已經失守。

SPCX IPO 的閉鎖期何時屆滿？

公開說明書載明了日期；慣例上是自發行日起算 180 天 — 對於 2026 年 6 月 12 日掛牌而言，即為 2026 年 12 月初。在此之前，多數內部人及 IPO 前持股不得出售；閉鎖期屆滿 是每個 IPO 行事曆上的標準供給日期。

資料說明

所有時間戳記均為 UTC；常規交易時段為 UTC 分鐘區間 810-1199（即美東夏令時間交易時段）；首日比較面板則篩選美東時間 9:30-16:00，以便冬季掛牌日期仍對應真實交易時段。本週期間為 7 月 6 日至 10 日，前一收盤價取自 7 月 2 日週四（7 月 3 日為假日）。此標的列入代碼混淆防護清單：所有 SPCX 視窗均自 2026 年 6 月 12 日該已驗證實體掛牌起算，且代碼歷史面板會標示舊實體的邊界。「水下」指標計算常規交易時段內，價格低於首筆成交價（即 6 月 12 日開盤集合競價，以宣告欄位形式提供）——而非發行價——的分鐘數與收盤次數。首日比較係將各掛牌日，從其自身首筆常規交易時段成交起，至其自身第 28 天收盤止——衡量標準相同，日曆不同——發行價格則取自 IPO 紀錄。OCC 選擇權代碼係按位置解析；無法解析的履約價，透過履約價 > 0 的篩選條件予以排除。新聞則數與引述標題係衡量單一彙總資訊源；標題接收內容為首句截短。融券成交量沿用其來源檔案的完整性，相關標記如上；融券餘額序列此前業經重編。

方法說明

  • 資料來源：整合式報價資訊 — delayed_stocks_minute_aggs, stocks_trades, cache_stocks_quotes, options_trades, stocks_news, stocks_ipos, FINRA stocks_short_volume 與 stocks_short_interest。
  • 實體紀律：採用 verified_tickers 斷言；時間窗口以掛牌後實體為界；重複使用憑證置於頁首。
  • 確定性彙總；前期與跨掛牌比較均為即時運算，絕不引用其他文章數據。
  • 資料倉儲基準日：2026年7月12日。

交叉連結：掛牌首月表現、納入指數、自高點回落，以及本週市場回顧。每個面板均為單一儲存物件——圖表、表格、SQL 查詢——且所有查詢皆於 Strasmore 終端機上執行。

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