Strasmore Research
Deep Dives · Matt ConnorBy Matt Connor · · Updated 2026-07-25

SPCX: wiki ya Julai 6 2026 SPCX chini ya maji

SPCX wiki ya Julai 6, 2026: mtiririko wa kuingizwa kwenye fahirisi uliondoka, tatu kati ya tano zilifunga chini ya bei ya biashara ya kwanza ya Juni, na Ijumaa ikaweka kiwango kipya

SPCX ilitumia wiki ya Julai 6, 2026 ikifanya kile ambacho orodha mpya hazipaswi kamwe kufanya: iliingia chini ya maji. Kutoka kwa bei ya kufunga ya wiki iliyotangulia ya $161.86, hisa ilishuka -10.2% katika vipindi vitano hadi $145.4 — ikifunga chini ya bei ya biashara ya kwanza ya $150 katika 3 kati ya 5 ya vipindi na kuchapisha kiwango kipya cha chini cha kufunga tangu kuorodheshwa siku ya Ijumaa. Wiki ilifunguliwa na mwisho wa mwendo wa mtiririko wa kuingizwa kwenye fahirisi na kufungwa kwenye rekodi ya utulivu zaidi tangu kuorodheshwa, makadirio ya kwanza ya wachambuzi na nambari za kwanza za robo mwaka za maisha ya umma zikianguka katikati. Kila nambari hapa chini ni swala lililohifadhiwa — panua paneli yoyote kwa SQL.

Kwanza, hati za uthibitisho: SPCX hii ni ipi

SPCX hapo awali ilikuwa ya dhamana tofauti, isiyohusiana, kwa hivyo kila dirisha hapa linahusishwa na chombo kilichoorodheshwa Juni 12, 2026 — Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (uchambuzi wa kina wa mwezi wa kwanza una uthibitisho kamili):

UlizaHistoria ya biashara ya ishara kwa mwezi — pengo na kuwasili kwa chombo kipya
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    toStartOfMonth(window_start) AS month,
    count() AS minute_bars,
    round(min(toFloat64(low)), 2) AS low_usd,
    round(max(toFloat64(high)), 2) AS high_usd,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 2) AS shares_m
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2025-07-01 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
GROUP BY month
ORDER BY month

Pengo la miezi mingi ni chombo cha zamani kinachoondoka kwenye rekodi; pau nzito kuanzia Juni 2026 na kuendelea ni chombo kipya — kila kitu hapa chini kinahusu alama hizo pekee.

Wiki moja kwa mstari mmoja

UlizaSPCX, wiki ya Julai 6, 2026 — mteremko, uliopokelewa
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH
    (
        SELECT argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
          AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    ) AS pw_close,
    (
        SELECT min(toFloat64(low)) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
    ) AS lo,
    (
        SELECT max(toFloat64(high)) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
    ) AS hi,
    (
        SELECT min(c) FROM (
            SELECT argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS c
            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
            WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-12 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
            GROUP BY toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))
        )
    ) AS prior_low_close,
    (
        SELECT countIf(c < 150) FROM (
            SELECT argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS c
            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
            WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
            GROUP BY toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))
        )
    ) AS closes_under_150
SELECT
    round(pw_close, 2) AS prior_week_close,
    round(toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)), 2) AS week_close,
    round((toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)) / pw_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS week_change_pct,
    round(hi, 2) AS week_high,
    round(lo, 2) AS week_low,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(minIf(window_start, toFloat64(low) <= lo + 0.011), 'America/New_York'), '%Y-%m-%d %H:%i') AS week_low_bar_et,
    countIf(toFloat64(close) < 150 AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS rth_minutes_below_150,
    150 AS underwater_threshold_usd,
    closes_under_150 AS closes_below_150,
    round(prior_low_close, 2) AS prior_closing_low,
    round(prior_low_close - toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)), 2) AS new_low_margin_usd,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / 1e9, 1) AS rth_dollar_bn,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS week_shares_m,
    uniqExact(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS session_days_observed
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')

-10.2% kwa wiki, kiwango cha juu cha $167.9 hadi kiwango cha chini cha $145.07 (kilichorekodiwa 2026-07-10 15:59 ET), na 790 dakika za kikao cha kawaida chini ya bei ya kwanza ya biashara ya $150. Kufungwa kwa Ijumaa kwa $145.4 kulipunguza kiwango cha chini cha awali cha kufungwa baada ya kuorodheshwa cha $152.74.

Dokezo moja la nanga: "underwater" linamaanisha chini ya bei ya opening-cross ya Juni 12 — kile ambacho wanunuzi wa umma walilipa kwanza, kilichopokelewa katika uchambuzi wa kina wa mwezi wa kwanza; dhidi ya bei ya chini ya utoaji, orodha bado iko juu ya maji. Jumla ya dola za saa za kawaida: 41.7B katika 5 vikao.

Kikao kwa kikao: mtiririko unaondoka

UlizaSPCX kwa kikao — kufunga, mabadiliko, hisa, dola
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    et_date,
    close_usd,
    round(if(prev_close = 0, NULL, (close_usd / prev_close - 1) * 100), 1) AS change_pct,
    shares_m,
    dollar_bn
FROM (
    SELECT et_date, close_usd, shares_m, dollar_bn,
           lagInFrame(close_usd) OVER (ORDER BY et_date ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_close
    FROM (
        SELECT
            toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
            round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199), 2) AS close_usd,
            round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m,
            round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS dollar_bn
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
        GROUP BY et_date
    )
)
WHERE et_date >= toDate('2026-07-06')
ORDER BY et_date

Jumatatu ilibeba 17.55B — mkia wa mtiririko wa uongezaji wa fahirisi uliopokelewa katika uchambuzi wa kina wa uongezaji wa fahirisi. Kisha mtiririko ukaondoka: 11.3B Jumanne (kikao cha -6.7% chenye kufunga kwa mara ya kwanza chini ya $150, kwa mujibu wa noti ya kushuka kutoka kilele), ikififia hadi 6.31B Ijumaa — takriban theluthi moja ya kiasi cha Jumatatu. Mrukio wa +2.6% Alhamisi haukushikilia; Ijumaa ilifunga -4.4% chini kwa $145.4.

Kile ambacho mfumo wa habari ulisema kweli

Mfumo wa habari ulikuwa ukiandika nini wakati soko lilipokuwa likishuka? Vichwa vya habari vinaeleza kile ambacho hesabu tu haiwezi kufikisha.

UlizaMtiririko wa habari za wiki: hesabu, pamoja na risiti tatu za hadithi, zilizonukuliwa neno kwa neno
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH
    (
        SELECT (arrayElement(splitByString('. ', argMin(title, published_utc)), 1), toString(min(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')))))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX') AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
          AND title ILIKE '%quiet period%'
    ) AS quiet,
    (
        SELECT (arrayElement(splitByString('. ', argMin(title, published_utc)), 1), toString(min(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')))))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX') AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
          AND title ILIKE '%lost%revenue%'
    ) AS results,
    (
        SELECT (arrayElement(splitByString('. ', argMin(title, published_utc)), 1), toString(min(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')))))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX') AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
          AND title ILIKE '%borrowed%'
    ) AS borrow
SELECT
    count() AS week_articles,
    uniqExact(JSONExtractString(publisher, 'name')) AS publishers,
    countIf(title ILIKE '%nasdaq-100%') AS index_add_headlines,
    quiet.1 AS quiet_period_headline,
    quiet.2 AS quiet_period_date,
    results.1 AS results_headline,
    results.2 AS results_date,
    borrow.1 AS borrowing_headline,
    borrow.2 AS borrowing_date
FROM global_markets.stocks_news
WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX')
  AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00')
  AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')

51 makala yaliyowekwa alama kutoka kwa wachapishaji 3; mada tatu kuu zinatia nguvu katika vichwa vya habari. Tarehe 2026-07-07, mfumo wenyewe uliweka mada kuwa "Analysts Go All-In on SpaceX as the Quiet Period Ends" — ukimya wa wahakikishaji baada ya IPO kukomaa na ukadiriaji kufika, siku hiyo hiyo ya kikao cha -6.7%. Tarehe 2026-07-09: "SpaceX Lost $4.28 Billion on $4.7 Billion in Revenue Last Quarter" — takwimu za kwanza za robo mwaka za maisha ya umma ya hisa zikifika kwenye mfumo. Sambamba na hayo, mada ya mizania — "SpaceX Borrowed $25 Billion and Is Buying Up AI Companies" (2026-07-07) — pamoja na vichwa 5 vya habari kuhusu Nasdaq-95 kujiongeza yenyewe. Nidhamu ya kawaida: umakini wa mfumo mmoja uliojumuishwa, si vyombo vya habari vya dunia — na kushuka kwa soko na mada hizo vinashiriki tu kalenda; kutokea kwa wakati mmoja ndiyo yote ambayo jedwali hili linaweza kushuhudia.

Jedwali la wiki nzima la chombo hadi sasa

UlizaKila wiki ya maisha ya chombo kipya — faida kutoka kufungua hadi kufunga na dola za RTH (zilizofungwa na chombo)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    toString(wk) AS period_start,
    round(ret, 1) AS week_return_pct,
    round(dollar_bn, 1) AS week_rth_dollar_bn,
    sessions
FROM (
    SELECT toStartOfWeek(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), 1) AS wk,
           uniqExact(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS sessions,
           (argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / argMinIf(toFloat64(open), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) - 1) * 100 AS ret,
           sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / 1e9 AS dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-12 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
    GROUP BY wk
)
ORDER BY period_start

Wiki tano za kalenda za kuwepo kwenye jedwali moja dogo — mwonekano wa kwanza wa orodha, kilele, kufifia, na sasa hii: wiki ya -12.4% kutoka ufunguzi hadi kufunga kwa 41.7B ya dola. Msingi ni rekodi ya awali ya chombo chenyewe, iliyokokotwa moja kwa moja — kila wiki mpya bado inaandika upya sehemu ya tano ya historia.

Je, hii ni kawaida? Majina mengine sita makubwa, kigezo kimoja

Je, huu ni msimu wa kawaida baada ya IPO au ni jambo baya zaidi? Angalia: tumia kipimo kimoja — biashara ya kwanza katika saa za kawaida hadi kufungwa kwa siku ya 28 katika saa za kawaida — kwa majina mengine makubwa yenye thamani ya zaidi ya dola bilioni moja katika miaka miwili iliyopita.

UlizaMikondo mikubwa ya hivi karibuni, mwezi wa kwanza kwenye rula moja: biashara ya kwanza hadi kufunga siku ya 28 (saa za kawaida za ET)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    b.ticker AS ticker,
    toString(any(i.ld)) AS listed,
    round(any(i.ipx), 2) AS issue_px,
    round(argMinIf(toFloat64(b.open), b.window_start, rth), 2) AS first_trade_open,
    round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(b.close), b.window_start, rth), 2) AS day28_close,
    round((argMaxIf(toFloat64(b.close), b.window_start, rth) / argMinIf(toFloat64(b.open), b.window_start, rth) - 1) * 100, 1) AS open_to_day28_pct,
    round((argMaxIf(toFloat64(b.close), b.window_start, rth) / any(i.ipx) - 1) * 100, 1) AS issue_to_day28_pct,
    toUInt8(b.ticker = 'SPCX') AS is_spcx
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs AS b
INNER JOIN (
    SELECT ticker, max(listing_date) AS ld, argMax(toFloat64(final_issue_price), listing_date) AS ipx
    FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPCX', 'CRWV', 'CBRS', 'KLAR', 'VG', 'MDLN', 'LINE')
    GROUP BY ticker
) AS i ON b.ticker = i.ticker
WHERE b.ticker IN ('SPCX', 'CRWV', 'CBRS', 'KLAR', 'VG', 'MDLN', 'LINE')
  AND b.window_start >= toDateTime('2024-07-25 00:00:00')
  AND b.window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
  AND toDate(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= i.ld
  AND toDate(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= i.ld + 28
  AND ((toHour(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS rth
GROUP BY b.ticker
ORDER BY open_to_day28_pct

Kwenye kigezo hiki, -3.1% ya SPCX iko katikati ya jedwali. VG (-36%), CBRS (-35.1%) na KLAR (-18.9%) zote zilishuka zaidi kutoka biashara yao ya kwanza ya umma; MDLN ilipata 23.9% zaidi katika mwezi wake wa kwanza. Badala yake, ikilinganishwa na bei ya ofa, +7.7% ya SPCX iko pale ambapo sehemu kubwa ya jedwali hili iko — juu ya toleo, chini ya bei ya ufunguzi; VG ndio jina pekee hapa lililokuwa chini ya bei yake ya toleo siku ya 28. Kwa ushahidi huu, kurudi nyuma kwa mwezi wa kwanza kutoka kwa bei ya ufunguzi ni sura ya kawaida kwa jina kubwa, si ishara ya dhiki.

Bado ni mzito — lakini unafifia

UlizaIshara zenye uzito zaidi wiki hii kwa kiasi cha dola katika saa za kawaida — ambapo mgeni anapo sasa
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close)) / 1e9, 1) AS regular_hours_dollar_bn,
    round(100 * sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close)) / max(sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close))) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_leader,
    toUInt8(ticker = 'SPCX') AS is_spcx
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
  AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
GROUP BY ticker
ORDER BY regular_hours_dollar_bn DESC
LIMIT 12
UlizaRisiti ya cheo: kiasi cha dola cha wiki dhidi ya kila ishara nyingine
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH (
    SELECT sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close))
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
) AS spcx_d
SELECT
    countIf(d > spcx_d AND ticker != 'SPCX') + 1 AS spcx_rank,
    round(spcx_d / 1e9, 1) AS spcx_dollar_bn,
    round(100 * spcx_d / max(d), 1) AS pct_of_leader
FROM (
    SELECT ticker, sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close)) AS d
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    GROUP BY ticker
)

Nafasi eleventh kwa dola za wiki — bado ni miongoni mwa majina mazito zaidi kwenye mkanda, kwa 25.4% ya kiongozi wa wiki, ambapo dirisha la baada ya kuingizwa kwenye soko la Juni lilikuwa limeiweka miongoni mwa vichache vya juu vya soko. Msingi: dola za kila ticker katika saa za kawaida kwa vipindi vitano vya soko, mhusika amejumuishwa kwa alama ya risiti badala ya kutengwa — mada ya ukurasa huu NI chombo kilichothibitishwa.

Nyenzo za mkanda uliotengenezwa

UlizaAnatomy ya ukubwa wa chapisho na sensa ya nukuu — wiki kamili
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH
    (
        SELECT (round(count() / 1e6, 2),
                round(100.0 * countIf(bid_price > 0 AND ask_price > 0 AND ask_price > bid_price) / count(), 2))
        FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
          AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
    ) AS quote_census
SELECT
    round(count() / 1e6, 2) AS prints_m,
    quantileDeterministic(0.5)(toFloat64(size), toUInt64(abs(sequence_number))) AS median_print_shares,
    round(100.0 * countIf(size < 100) / count(), 1) AS odd_lot_pct_of_prints,
    quote_census.1 AS nbbo_updates_m,
    quote_census.2 AS clean_two_sided_pct
FROM global_markets.stocks_trades
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)

5.52 milioni za chapa, 80.1% kati yazo ni kura zisizo za kawaida, dhidi ya 2.2 milioni za sasisho za NBBO (99.35% safi za pande mbili). Mwezi mmoja baada ya kuorodheshwa, muundo mdogo unasoma kama hisa yoyote kubwa inayotumika.

Kuenea: msimu unaendelea

UlizaWastani wa kuenea kwa nukuu kwa kikao, saa za kawaida (bps ya katikati)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    session,
    round(quantileDeterministicIf(0.5)((toFloat64(ask_price) - toFloat64(bid_price)) / ((toFloat64(ask_price) + toFloat64(bid_price)) / 2) * 10000, toUInt64(toUnixTimestamp64Micro(sip_timestamp)), bid_price > 0 AND ask_price >= bid_price), 2) AS med_spread_bps,
    count() AS quote_updates
FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 13:30:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
  AND (toHour(sip_timestamp) * 60 + toMinute(sip_timestamp)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
GROUP BY toDate(toTimeZone(sip_timestamp, 'America/New_York')) AS session
ORDER BY session

Mnamo Jumatatu, kuenea kwa wastani kwa saa za kawaida kulifunguka kwa 3.12 bps, kukawa pana hadi 4.07 bps katikati ya wiki, na kukawa nyepesi hadi 2.7 bps kufikia Ijumaa — kuenea kwa orodha changa kunazunguka katika eneo la majina makubwa hata wakati bei yake iliposhuka. Utoaji wa ukwasi na mwelekeo wa bei ni mashine tofauti; wiki hii iliyatenganisha kwa uwazi.

Chaguzi: Puts chini ya soko, lottery calls juu yake

UlizaChaguo kwenye chombo kipya, wiki kamili: mikataba, put-call, mkataba wenye shughuli nyingi
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH
    (
        SELECT concat('$', toString(round(toFloat64(toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8))) / 1000, 2)),
               if(substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P', ' put', ' call'),
               ', expiry 20', substring(ticker, 7, 2), '-', substring(ticker, 9, 2), '-', substring(ticker, 11, 2))
        FROM global_markets.options_trades
        WHERE startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPCX') AND length(ticker) = 21
          AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
        GROUP BY ticker ORDER BY sum(size) DESC LIMIT 1
    ) AS busiest_name
SELECT
    round(sum(size) / 1e6, 2) AS contracts_traded_m,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P')) / toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'C')), 2) AS week_put_call_ratio,
    round(sum(toFloat64(price) * size) * 100 / 1e9, 2) AS premium_notional_busd,
    busiest_name AS busiest_contract
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPCX') AND length(ticker) = 21
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)

Kitabu kilifanya biashara ya mikataba 3.14 milioni kwa uwiano wa put-call wa 0.8 — calls bado zilizidi puts, lakini zilikuwa na uzito wa put zaidi kuliko hisa moja ya kawaida (kitabu cha wiki moja cha NVDA kilikuwa na uwiano wa takriban nusu ya huo). Uwiano hauwezi kusema WAPI puts ziko. Ramani ya strike inaweza:

UlizaMikataba ya wiki kwa kikundi cha strike ($20 kwa kikundi; mikia imewekwa kikomo $80 na $240)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    concat('$', toString(toUInt32(bucket))) AS strike_bucket,
    toUInt64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'C')) AS call_contracts,
    toUInt64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P')) AS put_contracts,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P') / sum(size), 1) AS put_share_pct,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 7, 6) <= '260717') / sum(size), 1) AS expiring_by_jul17_pct,
    round(100 * sum(size) / max(sum(size)) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_biggest_bucket
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPCX') AND length(ticker) = 21
  AND toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8)) > 0
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
GROUP BY least(greatest(floor(toFloat64(toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8))) / 1000 / 20) * 20, 80), 240) AS bucket
ORDER BY bucket

Sura ni barbell. Chini ya safu ya biashara kitabu ni karibu put safi: 95.9% puts katika kundi la $120 (mikataba 333149), kila kundi chini yake pia zaidi ya asilimia tisini. Kundi la $140 lililo karibu na soko lilichukua kiasi kikubwa zaidi cha biashara kuliko kundi lolote — 61.1% puts, 83.2% yake ikimalizika kufikia Julai 17. Juu ya safu polarity inabadilika (15.5% puts katika $160), na mkia wa mbali ni karibu call wote: mikataba 413356 ya call katika kundi la $240 na zaidi, nyumbani kwa mkataba wenye shughuli nyingi zaidi wa wiki ($450 call, expiry 2026-07-17). Kile jedwali hili linaweza kusema: puts zimejikita kwenye na chini ya soko — alama ya kawaida ya ulinzi wa kushuka — pamoja na calls za bahati mbaya juu sana. Kile halinaweza: kama puts hizo zinalinda hisa au zinaonyesha maoni hasi wazi; prints hazina utambulisho wala nia (maelezo ya uwiano wa put-call inachora mpaka huo).

The shorts, with a denominator this time

UlizaKiasi cha kila siku cha FINRA cha short wakati wa wiki — hisa za short na sehemu zao za nje ya soko
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT toString(date) AS d,
       round(toFloat64(any(short_volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS short_shares_m,
       round(toFloat64(any(total_volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS offexchange_total_m,
       round(100 * toFloat64(any(short_volume)) / toFloat64(any(total_volume)), 1) AS short_pct_of_offexchange
FROM global_markets.stocks_short_volume
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND date >= toDate('2026-07-06') AND date <= toDate('2026-07-10')
GROUP BY date
ORDER BY date

Kiasi cha hisa zilizouzwa kwa muda mfupi (short volume) kilipungua kutoka 23.7M Jumatatu hadi 12.2M Ijumaa, kikifuata mwelekeo wa jumla wa soko; kama sehemu ya mauzo yasiyo ya soko la hisa (off-exchange volume), ilibaki katika kiwango cha karibu 66.8% — hii ni kazi ya kawaida ya wahudumu wa soko (kuuza kwa muda mfupi ili kujaza maagizo ya wanunuzi), si dau la mwelekeo wa soko, kama maelezo ya kiasi cha mauzo ya muda mfupi inavyoeleza. Tahadhari mbili: faili la soko la Julai 7 lilifikishwa likiwa limepunguzwa (liliorodheshwa katika muhtasari wa soko wa kila wiki), kwa hivyo wiki inaonyesha faili 4 za kila siku badala ya tano — na kiasi cha mauzo ya muda mfupi ni mtiririko, si nafasi. Nafasi hiyo iko katika mfululizo wa riba ya muda mfupi (short-interest series):

UlizaChapisho za riba za short za chombo kipya hadi sasa, pamoja na siku zilizodokezwa za kufidia
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT toString(settlement_date) AS settlement,
       round(toFloat64(max(short_interest)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_short_m,
       round(toFloat64(max(avg_daily_volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS avg_daily_volume_m,
       max(days_to_cover) AS vendor_days_to_cover,
       round(toFloat64(max(short_interest)) / toFloat64(max(avg_daily_volume)), 2) AS implied_days_to_cover
FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND settlement_date >= toDate('2026-06-01') AND settlement_date <= toDate('2026-06-30')
GROUP BY settlement_date
ORDER BY settlement_date

Kati ya makazi ya 2026-06-15 na 2026-06-30, hisa zilizouzwa kwa muda mfupi ziliongezeka kutoka 23.3M hadi 111.3M — lakini kipimo (denominator) kina umuhimu: dhidi ya wastani wa siku wa hisa 151.6M za muuzaji, hii inamaanisha siku za kufunika (days-to-cover) za 0.73 tu (uwanja wa muuzaji una kiwango cha chini cha 1) — kitabu chote cha mauzo ya muda mfupi kinaweza kufunikwa ndani ya kikao kimoja cha wastani. Ufichuzi mmoja unajitokeza: chanzo tayari kimebadilisha tena chapisho la Juni 15 mara moja tangu ukurasa wa mwezi wa kwanza ulipochapishwa — takwimu hizi ni rekodi yake ya sasa, iliyochakatwa tena na kukaguliwa kwa mipaka katika kila uundaji upya.

Nini cha kuangalia kutoka hapa

Nyuzi nne zinasalia wazi. Mtiririko wa kuongezwa kwa fahirisi ni wa mara moja kwa muundo — fedha za fahirisi hununua wakati wa kujumuishwa, kisha zinashikilia — kwa hivyo mkanda wa 17.55B wa Jumatatu ni dari ambayo utaratibu huo hautajenga tena. Kukomaa kwa Julai 17 kunaondoa trafiki nyingi za chaguzi za karibu na bei ya sasa (83.2% ya kundi kubwa la bei ya utekelezaji); mahali ambapo ukuta wa chaguo la kuuza unajengwa upya ndio usomaji safi zaidi wa kama zabuni ya ulinzi inaendelea. Taarifa inayofuata ya riba fupi itachapishwa kwenye ucheleweshaji wa kawaida wa FINRA na itaonyesha kama hisa fupi ziliendelea kukua wakati wa kushuka. Na tarehe ya usambazaji wa kila IPO — kumalizika kwa lock-up — imechukuliwa katika Maswali na Majibu hapa chini.

Maswali Yanayoulizwa Mara kwa Mara

Je, SPCX bado iko juu ya bei yake ya IPO?

Iko juu ya bei ya utoaji, lakini chini ya biashara ya kwanza ya umma. SPCX ilimaliza wiki kwa $145.4 — 7.7% juu ya bei ya utoaji ya $135, lakini chini ya $150 ya msalaba wa ufunguzi ambapo biashara ya umma ilianza Juni 12.

Je, uwiano wa put-call wa SPCX unamaanisha nini hasa?

0.8 za put zilifanyika biashara kwa kila call — bado calls zilizidi puts, lakini takriban mara mbili ya mwelekeo wa wiki hiyo hiyo katika kitabu cha chaguzi cha NVDA. Uwiano pekee hauwezi kutenganisha hedging kutoka kwa dau za bearish; ramani ya strike inaonyesha puts zimejikita kwenye na chini ya soko, sura ambayo ulinzi huchukua.

Kwa nini ununuzi wa kuongezwa kwa fahirisi ulitoweka?

Kujumuishwa kwa fahirisi ni usawazishaji wa mara moja: fedha za ufuatiliaji hununua karibu na tarehe ya kuanza kutumika, kisha hushikilia tu. Msalaba mkubwa wa kufunga wa Julai 6 ulikuwa ununuzi huo ukifanyika; utaratibu haununui tena.

Je, bei ya biashara ya kwanza ya Juni ni kiwango cha usaidizi kwa SPCX?

Alama hiyo ya $150 ndipo msalaba wa ufunguzi wa Juni 12 ulipochapishwa — sehemu ya marejeleo, si sakafu ya kiufundi. Ukanda ulitumia 790 dakika za kikao cha kawaida chini yake wiki hii na kufungwa chini yake 3 mara, kwa hivyo kama sakafu ngumu tayari imeshindwa.

Je, kufungwa kwa lock-up ya IPO ya SPCX kunatokea lini?

Hati ya matarajio inaweka tarehe; muda wa kawaida ni siku 180 kutoka utoaji — kwa orodha ya Juni 12, 2026, mapema Desemba 2026. Hadi ipite, hisa nyingi za watu wa ndani na za kabla ya IPO haziwezi kuuzwa; kumalizika kwa lock-up ni tarehe ya kawaida ya usambazaji kwenye kila kalenda ya IPO.

Vidokezo vya data

Viwango vyote vya muda ni UTC; saa za kawaida ni bendi ya dakika 810-1199 UTC (kipindi cha EDT); paneli ya kulinganisha mwanzo badala yake huchuja saa ya 9:30-16:00 ET ili orodha za majira ya baridi ziendelee kwenye kipindi halisi. Wiki inaendesha Julai 6-10 huku kufungwa kwa awali kukitoka Alhamisi Julai 2 (likizo ya Julai 3). Alama hii iko kwenye orodha ya ulinzi wa utata: kila dirisha la SPCX linaanza baada ya orodha ya Juni 12, 2026 ya chombo kilichothibitishwa, na paneli ya historia ya alama hufanya mpaka wa chombo cha zamani uonekane. Kipimo cha "chini ya maji" huhesabu dakika za kipindi cha kawaida na kufungwa chini ya bei ya biashara ya kwanza (msalaba wa ufunguzi wa Juni 12, unaotolewa kama safu iliyotangazwa) — si bei ya utoaji. Ulinganisho wa mwanzo unaendesha kila orodha kutoka biashara yake ya kwanza ya saa za kawaida hadi kufungwa kwa siku yake ya 28 — rula moja, kalenda tofauti — na bei za toleo kutoka rekodi ya IPO. Vichochezi vya chaguo la OCC vinachambuliwa kwa nafasi; vichochezi visivyoweza kuchambuliwa vinatengwa na kichujio cha kugonga > 0. Hesabu za habari na vichwa vya habari vilivyonukuliwa hupima mlisho MMOJA uliojumuishwa; mapokezi ya vichwa vya habari ni vifupisho vya sentensi ya kwanza. Kiasi kifupi hurithi ukamilifu wa faili yake chanzo, kilichowekwa alama hapo juu; mfululizo wa riba fupi umesemwa tena kabla.

Mbinu

  • Chanzo: mkanda wa pamoja — delayed_stocks_minute_aggs, stocks_trades, cache_stocks_quotes, options_trades, stocks_news, stocks_ipos, FINRA stocks_short_volume na stocks_short_interest.
  • Nidhamu ya huluki: madai ya ticker zilizothibitishwa; madirisha yaliyowekewa mipaka ya huluki ya baada ya kuorodheshwa; risiti ya matumizi tena inaongoza ukurasa.
  • Makusanyo ya uhakika; ulinganisho wa kipindi cha awali na wa kuorodheshwa kwenye soko mbalimbali hukokotwa moja kwa moja, kamwe hautajwi kutoka machapisho mengine.
  • Hifadhi kama-ilivyokuwa: Julai 12, 2026.

Viungo mtambuka: mwezi wa kwanza, nyongeza ya fahirisi, kushuka kutoka kilele, na muhtasari wa soko wa wiki. Kila paneli ni kitu kimoja kilichohifadhiwa — chati, jedwali, SQL — na kila swala linaendeshwa kwenye terminal ya Strasmore.

← All SPCX periods
#spcx#weekly#deep dive#ipos