Strasmore Research
Deep Dives · Matt ConnorBy Matt Connor · · Updated 2026-08-01

SPCX: SPCX上市后首个低于发行价的一周

SPCX在2026年7月6日当周跌入水下:五个交易日中三日收于首日成交价下方,周五创上市后收盘新低,详解资金流出与关键数据。

SPCX spent the week of July 6, 2026 doing what young listings are never supposed to do: it went underwater. From the prior week's $161.86 close, the stock fell -10.2% across five sessions to $145.4, closing under the $150 first-trade price on 3 of 5 sessions and printing a new post-listing closing low on Friday. The week opened with the last surge of index-add flow and closed on the quietest tape since listing, the first analyst ratings and first public-life quarterly numbers landing in between. Every number below is a stored query, expand any panel for the SQL.

首先核对记录:这里的 SPCX 指什么

SPCX 此前属于另一只无关联证券。因此,这里的每个时间窗口都对应于 2026 年 6 月 12 日上市的实体 Space Exploration Technologies Corp.(首月深度分析包含完整核验):

查询该代码按月的交易历史:空缺期与新实体到来
月份分钟线最低价(美元)最高价(美元)股票数(百万)
2025-07-015824.326.40.02
2025-08-01482425.010.02
2025-09-016423.7725.350.02
2025-10-014524.6325.910.02
2025-11-012725.325.730.01
2025-12-0110121.3225.570.04
2026-01-014621.6722.510.02
2026-02-013021.6922.570.01
2026-03-016421.6222.590.04
2026-04-011321.9223.640.01
2026-06-0110960146.88225.642168.65
2026-07-016608145.07176.14485.33
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    toStartOfMonth(window_start) AS month,
    count() AS minute_bars,
    round(min(toFloat64(low)), 2) AS low_usd,
    round(max(toFloat64(high)), 2) AS high_usd,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 2) AS shares_m
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2025-07-01 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
GROUP BY month
ORDER BY month
自己运行这个查询

数月的空档期表示旧实体退出交易记录;2026 年 6 月起出现的大量成交柱代表新实体。下文仅涉及这些成交记录。

一周概览

查询SPCX,2026年7月6日当周:下跌走势,成交凭证
上周收盘价本周收盘价周变动百分比周最高价周最低价周最低价时段(ET)常规交易时段低于150的分钟数浮亏阈值(美元)收盘价低于150前收盘低点新低差额(美元)常规交易时段成交额(十亿美元)本周股票数(百万)观测交易日数
161.86145.4-10.2167.9145.072026-07-10 15:597901503152.747.3441.7327.75
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH
    (
        SELECT argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
          AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    ) AS pw_close,
    (
        SELECT min(toFloat64(low)) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
    ) AS lo,
    (
        SELECT max(toFloat64(high)) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
    ) AS hi,
    (
        SELECT min(c) FROM (
            SELECT argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS c
            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
            WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-12 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
            GROUP BY toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))
        )
    ) AS prior_low_close,
    (
        SELECT countIf(c < 150) FROM (
            SELECT argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS c
            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
            WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
            GROUP BY toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))
        )
    ) AS closes_under_150
SELECT
    round(pw_close, 2) AS prior_week_close,
    round(toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)), 2) AS week_close,
    round((toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)) / pw_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS week_change_pct,
    round(hi, 2) AS week_high,
    round(lo, 2) AS week_low,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(minIf(window_start, toFloat64(low) <= lo + 0.011), 'America/New_York'), '%Y-%m-%d %H:%i') AS week_low_bar_et,
    countIf(toFloat64(close) < 150 AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS rth_minutes_below_150,
    150 AS underwater_threshold_usd,
    closes_under_150 AS closes_below_150,
    round(prior_low_close, 2) AS prior_closing_low,
    round(prior_low_close - toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)), 2) AS new_low_margin_usd,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / 1e9, 1) AS rth_dollar_bn,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS week_shares_m,
    uniqExact(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS session_days_observed
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
自己运行这个查询

本周 -10.2%,最高价为 $167.9,最低价为 $145.07(于 2026-07-10 15:59 ET 录得),且常规交易时段 790 分钟低于 $150 的首笔交易价格。周五收于 $145.4,低于上市后此前 $152.74 的收盘低点。

需要说明的是:“水下”是指低于 6月12日开盘集合竞价价格,即公众买方最初支付的价格,详见上市首月深度分析;若以较低的发行价衡量,该上市标的仍处于水上。常规交易时段成交额合计为:在 5 个交易日内达到 41.7B

逐个交易日:资金流出

查询SPCX按交易时段:收盘价、变动、股数、金额
ET日期收盘价(美元)变动百分比股票数(百万)成交额(十亿美元)
2026-07-06160.4-0.9109.817.55
2026-07-07149.58-6.774.111.3
2026-07-08148.33-0.857.78.58
2026-07-09152.122.643.36.53
2026-07-10145.4-4.442.76.31
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    et_date,
    close_usd,
    round(if(prev_close = 0, NULL, (close_usd / prev_close - 1) * 100), 1) AS change_pct,
    shares_m,
    dollar_bn
FROM (
    SELECT et_date, close_usd, shares_m, dollar_bn,
           lagInFrame(close_usd) OVER (ORDER BY et_date ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_close
    FROM (
        SELECT
            toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
            round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199), 2) AS close_usd,
            round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m,
            round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS dollar_bn
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
        GROUP BY et_date
    )
)
WHERE et_date >= toDate('2026-07-06')
ORDER BY et_date
自己运行这个查询

周一成交额为 17.55B,指数纳入带来的资金流入尾声已在指数纳入深度解析中记录。随后资金流出:周二为 11.3B(根据从峰值回落分析,这是首次收盘价低于 $150 的 -6.7% 个交易日),到周五降至 6.31B,约为周一成交额的三分之一。周四上涨 2.6% 未能维持;周五收跌 -4.4%,报 $145.4

新闻信息流实际报道了什么

当股价持续下跌时,信息流在报道什么?标题传达的信息,是单纯计数无法体现的。

查询本周新闻流:数量及三条逐字引用的叙事凭证
本周文章数发布方指数纳入标题静默期标题静默期日期业绩标题业绩日期借款标题借款日期
5135Analysts Go All-In on SpaceX as the Quiet Period Ends2026-07-07SpaceX Lost $4.28 Billion on $4.7 Billion in Revenue Last Quarter2026-07-09SpaceX Borrowed $25 Billion and Is Buying Up AI Companies2026-07-07
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH
    (
        SELECT (arrayElement(splitByString('. ', argMin(title, published_utc)), 1), toString(min(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')))))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX') AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
          AND title ILIKE '%quiet period%'
    ) AS quiet,
    (
        SELECT (arrayElement(splitByString('. ', argMin(title, published_utc)), 1), toString(min(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')))))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX') AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
          AND title ILIKE '%lost%revenue%'
    ) AS results,
    (
        SELECT (arrayElement(splitByString('. ', argMin(title, published_utc)), 1), toString(min(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')))))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX') AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
          AND title ILIKE '%borrowed%'
    ) AS borrow
SELECT
    count() AS week_articles,
    uniqExact(JSONExtractString(publisher, 'name')) AS publishers,
    countIf(title ILIKE '%nasdaq-100%') AS index_add_headlines,
    quiet.1 AS quiet_period_headline,
    quiet.2 AS quiet_period_date,
    results.1 AS results_headline,
    results.2 AS results_date,
    borrow.1 AS borrowing_headline,
    borrow.2 AS borrowing_date
FROM global_markets.stocks_news
WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX')
  AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00')
  AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
自己运行这个查询

来自 3 家出版机构的文章共 51 篇;标题主要围绕三条主线展开。在 2026-07-07,信息流自身的表述是“Analysts Go All-In on SpaceX as the Quiet Period Ends”:IPO 承销商结束上市后的沉默,评级开始发布;当天也是 -6.7% 交易时段。在 2026-07-09,标题为“SpaceX Lost $4.28 Billion on $4.7 Billion in Revenue Last Quarter”:该股票上市后的首份季度数据进入信息流。与此同时,资产负债表主线的标题为“SpaceX Borrowed $25 Billion and Is Buying Up AI Companies”(2026-07-07),另有 5 个标题涉及纳斯达克100指数新增该股。通常需要注意:这里反映的是一个聚合信息流的关注点,而不是全球媒体的关注点;股价下跌与这些主线只是发生在同一日历期间,本表只能证明二者同时出现。

该实体截至目前的完整周度表格

查询新实体存续期间每周:开盘至收盘回报率与常规交易时段金额(按实体范围)
期间开始周回报率 (%)周常规交易时段金额 ($bn)交易时段
2026-06-087.581.21
2026-06-157.7166.54
2026-06-22-13.2745
2026-06-292.945.34
2026-07-06-12.441.75
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    toString(wk) AS period_start,
    round(ret, 1) AS week_return_pct,
    round(dollar_bn, 1) AS week_rth_dollar_bn,
    sessions
FROM (
    SELECT toStartOfWeek(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), 1) AS wk,
           uniqExact(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS sessions,
           (argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / argMinIf(toFloat64(open), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) - 1) * 100 AS ret,
           sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / 1e9 AS dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-12 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
    GROUP BY wk
)
ORDER BY period_start
自己运行这个查询

五个日历周的运行记录都在这张小表中:上市首日涨幅、峰值、回落,以及现在的情况:一个从开盘到收盘变动为 -12.4%、成交额为 41.7B 美元的周。基准线来自该实体此前自身的交易记录,并实时计算;每新增一周,都会改写五分之一的历史数据。

这种回落正常吗?另外六个大型上市首日表现,采用同一标尺

这是正常的 IPO 上市后消化,还是更严重的问题?检验方法是:对比过去两年市值超过十亿美元的其他 IPO,统一采用从常规交易时段首笔成交到第 28 个交易日常规交易时段收盘的表现。

查询近期大型上市首日表现,同一标尺下的首月:首次交易至第28日收盘(美东常规交易时段)
股票代码上市发行价首次交易开盘价第28日收盘价开盘至第28日 (%)发行至第28日 (%)是否 SPCX
VG2025-01-242524.0515.39-36-38.40
CBRS2026-05-14185350227-35.122.70
KLAR2025-09-10405242.17-18.95.40
SPCX2026-06-12135150145.4-3.17.71
LINE2024-07-25788284.382.98.20
CRWV2025-03-28403941.566.63.90
MDLN2025-12-17293543.3823.949.60
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    b.ticker AS ticker,
    toString(any(i.ld)) AS listed,
    round(any(i.ipx), 2) AS issue_px,
    round(argMinIf(toFloat64(b.open), b.window_start, rth), 2) AS first_trade_open,
    round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(b.close), b.window_start, rth), 2) AS day28_close,
    round((argMaxIf(toFloat64(b.close), b.window_start, rth) / argMinIf(toFloat64(b.open), b.window_start, rth) - 1) * 100, 1) AS open_to_day28_pct,
    round((argMaxIf(toFloat64(b.close), b.window_start, rth) / any(i.ipx) - 1) * 100, 1) AS issue_to_day28_pct,
    toUInt8(b.ticker = 'SPCX') AS is_spcx
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs AS b
INNER JOIN (
    SELECT ticker, max(listing_date) AS ld, argMax(toFloat64(final_issue_price), listing_date) AS ipx
    FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPCX', 'CRWV', 'CBRS', 'KLAR', 'VG', 'MDLN', 'LINE')
    GROUP BY ticker
) AS i ON b.ticker = i.ticker
WHERE b.ticker IN ('SPCX', 'CRWV', 'CBRS', 'KLAR', 'VG', 'MDLN', 'LINE')
  AND b.window_start >= toDateTime('2024-07-25 00:00:00')
  AND b.window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
  AND toDate(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= i.ld
  AND toDate(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= i.ld + 28
  AND ((toHour(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS rth
GROUP BY b.ticker
ORDER BY open_to_day28_pct
自己运行这个查询

按这一标尺,SPCX 的 -3.1% 处于中游。VG-36%)、CBRS-35.1%)和 KLAR-18.9%)从首笔公开交易起跌幅更大;MDLN 在上市首月上涨了 23.9%。若改为相对发行价计算,SPCX 的 +7.7% 与表中多数 IPO 的位置一致:高于发行价,但低于开盘成交价;VG 是表中唯一一个在第 28 个交易日收于自身发行价下方的 IPO。根据这一证据,大型 IPO 首月从开盘成交价回吐涨幅是一种常见形态,并不代表出现了困境信号。

仍是重量级标的,但影响力正在减弱

查询本周常规交易时段美元成交额最高的代码:新实体当前排名
股票代码常规交易时段金额 ($bn)占领先者 (%)是否 SPCX
MU1641000
SPY137.383.70
NVDA107.165.30
QQQ103.463.10
SNDK8853.70
TSLA69.342.20
META58.335.50
AMD5835.40
AAPL50.530.80
INTC47.929.20
SPCX41.725.41
MSFT41.125.10
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close)) / 1e9, 1) AS regular_hours_dollar_bn,
    round(100 * sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close)) / max(sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close))) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_leader,
    toUInt8(ticker = 'SPCX') AS is_spcx
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
  AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
GROUP BY ticker
ORDER BY regular_hours_dollar_bn DESC
LIMIT 12
自己运行这个查询
查询排名凭证:本周美元成交额与其他所有代码的比较
SPCX 排名SPCX 金额 ($bn)占领先者 (%)
1141.725.4
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH (
    SELECT sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close))
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
) AS spcx_d
SELECT
    countIf(d > spcx_d AND ticker != 'SPCX') + 1 AS spcx_rank,
    round(spcx_d / 1e9, 1) AS spcx_dollar_bn,
    round(100 * spcx_d / max(d), 1) AS pct_of_leader
FROM (
    SELECT ticker, sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close)) AS d
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    GROUP BY ticker
)
自己运行这个查询

按本周成交额排名,eleventh 仍是市场成交最活跃的标的之一,成交额为本周榜首的 25.4%。六月上市后的窗口期内,它曾位居市场成交额前列。统计口径为:五个交易日内各 ticker 在常规交易时段的成交额;纳入带有成交回执标记的标的,而非将其排除。本页面主题即为经核验的实体。

成交记录的构成

查询成交规模结构与报价统计:完整一周
成交笔数 (百万)成交笔数中位数(股)零股成交占比 (%)NBBO 更新次数 (百万)清晰双边报价 (%)
5.521080.12.299.35
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH
    (
        SELECT (round(count() / 1e6, 2),
                round(100.0 * countIf(bid_price > 0 AND ask_price > 0 AND ask_price > bid_price) / count(), 2))
        FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
          AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
    ) AS quote_census
SELECT
    round(count() / 1e6, 2) AS prints_m,
    quantileDeterministic(0.5)(toFloat64(size), toUInt64(abs(sequence_number))) AS median_print_shares,
    round(100.0 * countIf(size < 100) / count(), 1) AS odd_lot_pct_of_prints,
    quote_census.1 AS nbbo_updates_m,
    quote_census.2 AS clean_two_sided_pct
FROM global_markets.stocks_trades
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
自己运行这个查询

5.52 百万笔成交,其中 80.1% 笔为零碎股,期间共有 2.2 百万次 NBBO 更新(99.35% 次为有效双边报价)。上市一个月后,其微观结构已与任何交易活跃的大型股票相似。

spread:调味行情仍在继续

查询各交易时段中位报价价差,常规交易时段(中间价基点)
交易时段中位价差(基点)报价更新
2026-07-063.12417594
2026-07-073.93498486
2026-07-084.07384283
2026-07-093.99341861
2026-07-102.7350334
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    session,
    round(quantileDeterministicIf(0.5)((toFloat64(ask_price) - toFloat64(bid_price)) / ((toFloat64(ask_price) + toFloat64(bid_price)) / 2) * 10000, toUInt64(toUnixTimestamp64Micro(sip_timestamp)), bid_price > 0 AND ask_price >= bid_price), 2) AS med_spread_bps,
    count() AS quote_updates
FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 13:30:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
  AND (toHour(sip_timestamp) * 60 + toMinute(sip_timestamp)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
GROUP BY toDate(toTimeZone(sip_timestamp, 'America/New_York')) AS session
ORDER BY session
自己运行这个查询

常规交易时段的中位 spread 周一开盘为 3.12 个基点,周中扩大至 4.07 个基点,周五回落至 2.7 个基点。该新上市标的的价格下跌,但其 spread 仍在大型标的的区间内剧烈波动。流动性供给与价格方向由不同机制驱动;本周两者明显分化。

期权:低于市场价的看跌期权,以及高于市场价的彩票式看涨期权

查询新实体期权,完整一周:合约数、看跌看涨比、最活跃合约
成交合约数 (百万)周看跌/看涨比权利金名义金额 ($bn)最活跃合约
3.140.81.71$450 call, expiry 2026-07-17
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH
    (
        SELECT concat('$', toString(round(toFloat64(toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8))) / 1000, 2)),
               if(substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P', ' put', ' call'),
               ', expiry 20', substring(ticker, 7, 2), '-', substring(ticker, 9, 2), '-', substring(ticker, 11, 2))
        FROM global_markets.options_trades
        WHERE startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPCX') AND length(ticker) = 21
          AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
        GROUP BY ticker ORDER BY sum(size) DESC LIMIT 1
    ) AS busiest_name
SELECT
    round(sum(size) / 1e6, 2) AS contracts_traded_m,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P')) / toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'C')), 2) AS week_put_call_ratio,
    round(sum(toFloat64(price) * size) * 100 / 1e9, 2) AS premium_notional_busd,
    busiest_name AS busiest_contract
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPCX') AND length(ticker) = 21
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
自己运行这个查询

该期权簿成交了 3.14 百万张合约,看跌期权与看涨期权的比率为 0.8。看涨期权数量仍多于看跌期权,但看跌期权的权重远高于典型的单只股票(NVDA 同周到期合约的期权簿该比率约为其一半)。比率无法说明看跌期权位于何处。行权价分布图可以:

查询本周按行权价区间划分的合约($20区间;尾部封顶于$80和$240)
行权价区间看涨合约看跌合约看跌份额(%)7月17日前到期(%)占最大区间(%)
$8039499137895.91.87.8
$100747411833494.19.310.3
$1201429733314995.946.228.5
$14047448674591461.183.2100
$1604616888494615.577.944.8
$18021437869513.170.418.1
$2001047631679513.864.910
$2204657311802.571.73.9
$24041335622290.583.734.1
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    concat('$', toString(toUInt32(bucket))) AS strike_bucket,
    toUInt64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'C')) AS call_contracts,
    toUInt64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P')) AS put_contracts,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P') / sum(size), 1) AS put_share_pct,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 7, 6) <= '260717') / sum(size), 1) AS expiring_by_jul17_pct,
    round(100 * sum(size) / max(sum(size)) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_biggest_bucket
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPCX') AND length(ticker) = 21
  AND toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8)) > 0
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
GROUP BY least(greatest(floor(toFloat64(toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8))) / 1000 / 20) * 20, 80), 240) AS bucket
ORDER BY bucket
自己运行这个查询

其形态呈杠铃状。在交易区间下方,期权簿几乎完全由看跌期权构成:$120 区间中有 95.9% 看跌期权(333149 张合约),其下每个区间的看跌期权占比也都超过百分之九十。平值 $140 区间的成交量在所有区间中最高,其中有 61.1% 张看跌期权,83.2% 的合约在七月十七日前到期。在交易区间上方,多空方向反转($160 行权价处有 15.5% 张看跌期权),而远端尾部几乎全是看涨期权:$240 及以上区间有 413356 张看涨期权,其中包括本周成交最活跃的单一合约($450 call, expiry 2026-07-17)。该表能够说明的是:看跌期权集中在市场价及其下方,这是典型的下行保护特征;远高于市场价的位置则有长期权看涨期权。该表无法说明的是:这些看跌期权是在对冲股票,还是在表达直接的看跌观点;成交记录本身不包含交易者身份或意图(看跌-看涨期权比率解析对此作出了区分)。

空头,这次加入分母

查询本周FINRA每日卖空成交量:卖空股数及其场外交易占比
卖空股数(百万)场外交易总量(百万)场外交易中卖空占比(%)
2026-07-0623.735.566.8
2026-07-0818.725.373.8
2026-07-0912.118.565.4
2026-07-1012.217.370.5
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT toString(date) AS d,
       round(toFloat64(any(short_volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS short_shares_m,
       round(toFloat64(any(total_volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS offexchange_total_m,
       round(100 * toFloat64(any(short_volume)) / toFloat64(any(total_volume)), 1) AS short_pct_of_offexchange
FROM global_markets.stocks_short_volume
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND date >= toDate('2026-07-06') AND date <= toDate('2026-07-10')
GROUP BY date
ORDER BY date
自己运行这个查询

报告的空头成交量从周一的 23.7M 股降至周五的 12.2M 股,跟随全市场成交量走低;占场外成交量的比例维持在 66.8% 附近,主要反映做市商的交易流程(通过卖空来满足客户买入需求),而非方向性押注,详见空头成交量说明。有两点需要注意:7月7日的全市场文件不完整(周度市场回顾中的记录),因此本周显示的是 4 份日度文件,而不是五份;此外,空头成交量是交易流量,不是持仓。持仓数据见融券余额序列:

查询截至目前新实体的卖空权益数据,含隐含回补天数
结算价卖空股数(百万)日均成交量(百万)供应商口径补仓天数隐含补仓天数
2026-06-1523.369.210.34
2026-06-30111.3151.610.73
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT toString(settlement_date) AS settlement,
       round(toFloat64(max(short_interest)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_short_m,
       round(toFloat64(max(avg_daily_volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS avg_daily_volume_m,
       max(days_to_cover) AS vendor_days_to_cover,
       round(toFloat64(max(short_interest)) / toFloat64(max(avg_daily_volume)), 2) AS implied_days_to_cover
FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND settlement_date >= toDate('2026-06-01') AND settlement_date <= toDate('2026-06-30')
GROUP BY settlement_date
ORDER BY settlement_date
自己运行这个查询

2026-06-152026-06-30 两个结算日之间,卖空股数从 23.3M 股增至 111.3M 股,但分母很重要:以供应商统计的 151.6M 股日均成交量计算,隐含的回补天数仅为 0.73(供应商自身字段的下限为 1),整个空头持仓可在一个平均交易日内完成回补。有一点需要说明:自首月页面首次发布以来,数据源已对6月15日的成交记录进行过一次修订;这些数字是当前记录,并在每次重新生成时重新运行并完成边界检查。

接下来关注什么

有四条线索仍未明朗。指数纳入带来的资金流本质上是一次性的:指数基金在纳入时买入,随后持有。因此,周一的 17.55B 盘面是这一机制不会再次形成的上限。7月17日到期日将消化大部分平值期权交易量(最大行权价区间的 83.2%);看跌期权支撑墙在哪里重建,是判断保护性买盘是否持续的最清晰依据。下一次空头持仓结算数据将在 FINRA通常的滞后期 后发布,可显示空头股数是否在下跌过程中继续增加。每家IPO的锁定期到期日,即其既定供给释放日,也将在下方的常见问题中说明。

常见问题

SPCX目前仍高于IPO发行价吗?

高于发行价,但低于首笔公开交易价格。SPCX本周收于$145.4,较$135发行价高出7.7%,但低于6月12日公开交易开始时的$150开盘集合竞价价位。

SPCX的认沽—认购比实际意味着什么?

每份认购期权对应成交了0.8份认沽期权。认购期权数量仍多于认沽期权,但这一倾向约为NVDA期权簿同期的两倍。单凭这一比率无法区分对冲与看跌押注;行权价分布显示,认沽期权集中在市场价及其下方,这反映了保护性仓位的构成。

为什么指数纳入带来的买盘消失了?

纳入指数只会触发一次再平衡:跟踪基金在生效日前后买入,随后持有。7月6日巨大的收盘集合竞价就是这笔买入的执行,之后该机制不会再次买入。

6月首笔交易价格是SPCX的支撑位吗?

$150是6月12日开盘集合竞价的成交价,是一个参考点,而非机械支撑位。本周该股有790个常规交易时段分钟数低于这一价位,并有3次收于其下方,因此作为强支撑位,它已经失守。

SPCX的IPO限售期何时到期?

招股说明书规定具体日期;按惯例,限售期为发行日起180天。对于2026年6月12日上市的股票,限售期将在2026年12月初到期。在限售期结束前,大多数内部人士持股和IPO前股份不得出售;限售期到期是每份IPO日历上的标准供给事件。

数据说明

所有时间戳均为 UTC;常规交易时段为 UTC 分钟数 810–1199 区间(EDT 时段)。上市首日对比面板则按东部时间 9:30–16:00 筛选,因此冬季上市仍对应真实交易时段。本周为 7 月 6–10 日,前收盘价取自 7 月 2 日星期四(7 月 3 日为节假日)。该代码位于歧义防护名单中:每个 SPCX 窗口均始于 2026 年 6 月 12 日经核实实体上市当日或之后,且代码历史面板会显示旧实体的边界。“水下”指标统计常规交易时段内的分钟数,计算收盘价低于首次交易价的分钟;首次交易价为 6 月 12 日的开盘撮合价,并作为声明列输出,而非发行价。上市首日对比从每个上市标的自身的首笔常规时段交易开始,计算至自身第 28 日收盘;采用相同的计算标尺,但交易日历不同,发行价取自 IPO 记录。OCC 期权代码按位置解析;无法解析的行权价通过行权价 > 0 的筛选条件排除。新闻数量和引用的标题均来自一个聚合信息源;标题记录截取首句。卖空成交量沿用其源文件的完整性状态,相关标记已在上文列出;卖空权益序列此前已重新整理。

方法论

  • 来源:综合行情带、delayed_stocks_minute_aggsstocks_tradescache_stocks_quotesoptions_tradesstocks_newsstocks_ipos、FINRA stocks_short_volumestocks_short_interest
  • 实体一致性:已核验 verified_tickers 断言;时间窗口限定为上市后的该实体;复用凭证置于页面首位。
  • 聚合结果具有确定性;前期比较和跨上市比较均实时计算,从不引用其他文章中的数据。
  • 数据仓库截至日期:2026年7月12日。

交叉链接:第一个月纳入指数从峰值回落本周市场回顾。每个面板均对应一个已存储对象,包括图表、表格和 SQL;每条查询均在 Strasmore 终端上运行。

#spcx#weekly#deep dive#ipos