Strasmore Research
Deep Dives · Matt ConnorBy Matt Connor · · Updated 2026-07-23

SPCX: SPCX 股价跌破发行价

SPCX 在 2026 年 7 月 6 日当周下跌了 -10.2%，在 {{q:scoreboard_week:closes_below_150}} 个交易日中跌破了 ${{q:scoreboard_week:underwater_threshold_usd}}，周五创下上市新低。

SPCX 在 2026 年 7 月 6 日当周的表现违背了新股规律：股价跌破了发行价。该股从上周收盘价 $161.86 开始，在五个交易日内下跌了 -10.2%，至 $145.4。在 3 个交易日中，收盘价低于 5 的首个交易价 $150，并在周五创下上市后的最低收盘价。本周行情始于指数成分股调整带来的最后一次资金涌入，终于上市以来最平淡的交易时段；期间发布了首份分析师评级和首份上市后季度财报。以下所有数据均为存储查询——您可以展开任何面板以查看 SQL 语句。

首先，核实身份：这是哪种 SPCX

SPCX 此前属于另一家无关证券。因此，下文所有数据均指向 2026 年 6 月 12 日上市的实体——Space Exploration Technologies Corp.（详细验证请参阅 首月深度分析）：

查询该代码月度交易历史 —— 缺口与新实体上市
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    toStartOfMonth(window_start) AS month,
    count() AS minute_bars,
    round(min(toFloat64(low)), 2) AS low_usd,
    round(max(toFloat64(high)), 2) AS high_usd,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 2) AS shares_m
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2025-07-01 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
GROUP BY month
ORDER BY month

数月的空白期代表旧实体已停止交易；2026 年 6 月起的密集成交量代表新实体——以下内容仅针对该时段的成交记录。

一周概览

查询SPCX，2026年7月6日当周 —— 跌幅与成交记录
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH
    (
        SELECT argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
          AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    ) AS pw_close,
    (
        SELECT min(toFloat64(low)) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
    ) AS lo,
    (
        SELECT max(toFloat64(high)) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
    ) AS hi,
    (
        SELECT min(c) FROM (
            SELECT argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS c
            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
            WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-12 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
            GROUP BY toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))
        )
    ) AS prior_low_close,
    (
        SELECT countIf(c < 150) FROM (
            SELECT argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS c
            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
            WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
            GROUP BY toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))
        )
    ) AS closes_under_150
SELECT
    round(pw_close, 2) AS prior_week_close,
    round(toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)), 2) AS week_close,
    round((toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)) / pw_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS week_change_pct,
    round(hi, 2) AS week_high,
    round(lo, 2) AS week_low,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(minIf(window_start, toFloat64(low) <= lo + 0.011), 'America/New_York'), '%Y-%m-%d %H:%i') AS week_low_bar_et,
    countIf(toFloat64(close) < 150 AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS rth_minutes_below_150,
    150 AS underwater_threshold_usd,
    closes_under_150 AS closes_below_150,
    round(prior_low_close, 2) AS prior_closing_low,
    round(prior_low_close - toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)), 2) AS new_low_margin_usd,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / 1e9, 1) AS rth_dollar_bn,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS week_shares_m,
    uniqExact(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS session_days_observed
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')

本周 -10.2% 的波动区间为 $167.9 至 $145.07（2026-07-10 15:59 ET 记录），且 790 个常规交易时段的分钟价格低于 $150 的首笔交易价。周五收盘价为 $145.4，跌破了上市后此前的最低收盘价 $152.74。

核心要点：“处于亏损状态 (underwater)”指低于 6 月 12 日的开盘价——即公众买家支付的首笔价格，详见 首月深度分析；若对比较低的报价 (offering price)，该股目前仍处于盈利状态。常规交易时段总成交额：5 个交易日共计 41.7B。

逐个交易日分析：资金流出

查询SPCX 分时数据 —— 收盘价、涨跌幅、成交量、成交额
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    et_date,
    close_usd,
    round(if(prev_close = 0, NULL, (close_usd / prev_close - 1) * 100), 1) AS change_pct,
    shares_m,
    dollar_bn
FROM (
    SELECT et_date, close_usd, shares_m, dollar_bn,
           lagInFrame(close_usd) OVER (ORDER BY et_date ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_close
    FROM (
        SELECT
            toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
            round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199), 2) AS close_usd,
            round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m,
            round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS dollar_bn
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
        GROUP BY et_date
    )
)
WHERE et_date >= toDate('2026-07-06')
ORDER BY et_date

周一出现了 17.55B —— 正如 指数增持深度分析 所述，这是指数增持资金流的尾声。随后资金开始流出：11.3B 周二（根据 从高点回落报告，该交易日 -6.7% 首次收盘价低于 150 美元），到周五已降至 6.31B —— 仅为周一成交量的约三分之一。周四上涨 2.6% 的反弹未能持续；周五收盘下跌 -4.4%，报 145.4 美元。

新闻资讯的真实内容

在股价下跌期间，资讯流在报道什么？标题传达的信息比单纯的数据统计更丰富。

查询本周新闻流：统计数据及三条原文引述
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH
    (
        SELECT (arrayElement(splitByString('. ', argMin(title, published_utc)), 1), toString(min(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')))))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX') AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
          AND title ILIKE '%quiet period%'
    ) AS quiet,
    (
        SELECT (arrayElement(splitByString('. ', argMin(title, published_utc)), 1), toString(min(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')))))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX') AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
          AND title ILIKE '%lost%revenue%'
    ) AS results,
    (
        SELECT (arrayElement(splitByString('. ', argMin(title, published_utc)), 1), toString(min(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')))))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX') AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
          AND title ILIKE '%borrowed%'
    ) AS borrow
SELECT
    count() AS week_articles,
    uniqExact(JSONExtractString(publisher, 'name')) AS publishers,
    countIf(title ILIKE '%nasdaq-100%') AS index_add_headlines,
    quiet.1 AS quiet_period_headline,
    quiet.2 AS quiet_period_date,
    results.1 AS results_headline,
    results.2 AS results_date,
    borrow.1 AS borrowing_headline,
    borrow.2 AS borrowing_date
FROM global_markets.stocks_news
WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX')
  AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00')
  AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')

51 标记了来自 3 的文章；标题中包含三个主要叙事线。在 2026-07-07，资讯流的定调为“Analysts Go All-In on SpaceX as the Quiet Period Ends”——承销商在 IPO 后的沉默打破，评级随之发布，日期与 -6.7% 交易日一致。在 2026-07-09：“SpaceX Lost $4.28 Billion on $4.7 Billion in Revenue Last Quarter”——该股上市后的首份季度财报进入资讯流。与此同时，资产负债表线索——“SpaceX Borrowed $25 Billion and Is Buying Up AI Companies” (2026-07-07) ——以及关于 Nasdaq-100 的 5 条标题也同步出现。遵循常规逻辑：这是单一聚合资讯流的关注点，而非全球媒体的视角；股价下跌与这些叙事线仅在时间上重合，本表仅能证明其同时发生。

该实体迄今为止的完整周报表

查询新实体上市期间每周 —— 开盘至收盘收益率与 RTH 成交额（实体限定）
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    toString(wk) AS period_start,
    round(ret, 1) AS week_return_pct,
    round(dollar_bn, 1) AS week_rth_dollar_bn,
    sessions
FROM (
    SELECT toStartOfWeek(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), 1) AS wk,
           uniqExact(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS sessions,
           (argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / argMinIf(toFloat64(open), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) - 1) * 100 AS ret,
           sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / 1e9 AS dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-12 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
    GROUP BY wk
)
ORDER BY period_start

一张小表记录了该实体存在的五个日历周：上市、登顶、回落，以及现在的局面：41.7B 的 -12.4% 开盘至收盘周表现。基准线是实时计算的该实体过往走势——每一周的新数据都会重写五分之一的历史记录。

这种跌势正常吗？另外六家大型新股表现一致

这是上市后的常规回调，还是更糟糕的信号？我们采用单一衡量标准进行验证：即从常规交易时段的首个成交价到第28个交易日收盘价的涨跌幅。我们将此标准应用于过去两年内其他市值超过10亿美元的新股。

查询近期大型新股对比：首月表现（首笔交易至第28日收盘，ET常规交易时段）
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    b.ticker AS ticker,
    toString(any(i.ld)) AS listed,
    round(any(i.ipx), 2) AS issue_px,
    round(argMinIf(toFloat64(b.open), b.window_start, rth), 2) AS first_trade_open,
    round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(b.close), b.window_start, rth), 2) AS day28_close,
    round((argMaxIf(toFloat64(b.close), b.window_start, rth) / argMinIf(toFloat64(b.open), b.window_start, rth) - 1) * 100, 1) AS open_to_day28_pct,
    round((argMaxIf(toFloat64(b.close), b.window_start, rth) / any(i.ipx) - 1) * 100, 1) AS issue_to_day28_pct,
    toUInt8(b.ticker = 'SPCX') AS is_spcx
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs AS b
INNER JOIN (
    SELECT ticker, max(listing_date) AS ld, argMax(toFloat64(final_issue_price), listing_date) AS ipx
    FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPCX', 'CRWV', 'CBRS', 'KLAR', 'VG', 'MDLN', 'LINE')
    GROUP BY ticker
) AS i ON b.ticker = i.ticker
WHERE b.ticker IN ('SPCX', 'CRWV', 'CBRS', 'KLAR', 'VG', 'MDLN', 'LINE')
  AND b.window_start >= toDateTime('2024-07-25 00:00:00')
  AND b.window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
  AND toDate(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= i.ld
  AND toDate(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= i.ld + 28
  AND ((toHour(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS rth
GROUP BY b.ticker
ORDER BY open_to_day28_pct

根据该标准，SPCX 的 -3.1% 处于中游水平。MDLN 在首个交易月内上涨了 23.9%。相比之下，VG (-36%)、CBRS (-35.1%) 和 KLAR (-18.9%) 从首个交易价下跌的幅度更大。若以发行价为基准，SPCX 的 +7.7% 与表中大多数股票的表现一致——即高于发行价，但低于首个交易价；VG 是表中唯一一家在第28天跌破发行价的新股。从这些证据来看，首月较开盘价出现回调是大型新股的常见走势，并非困境信号。

依然是权重股，但影响力正在减弱

查询本周常规时段成交额最高的代码 —— 新股当前排名
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close)) / 1e9, 1) AS regular_hours_dollar_bn,
    round(100 * sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close)) / max(sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close))) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_leader,
    toUInt8(ticker = 'SPCX') AS is_spcx
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
  AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
GROUP BY ticker
ORDER BY regular_hours_dollar_bn DESC
LIMIT 12
查询排名记录：本周成交额在所有代码中的排名
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH (
    SELECT sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close))
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
) AS spcx_d
SELECT
    countIf(d > spcx_d AND ticker != 'SPCX') + 1 AS spcx_rank,
    round(spcx_d / 1e9, 1) AS spcx_dollar_bn,
    round(100 * spcx_d / max(d), 1) AS pct_of_leader
FROM (
    SELECT ticker, sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close)) AS d
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    GROUP BY ticker
)

按本周成交金额排名，eleventh 位列第 25.4 位。该股仍是市场成交最活跃的标的之一，其金额约为本周龙头的 25.4%。而在 6 月上市初期，该股曾位居市场前列。统计依据：过去五个交易日内，所有包含收盘价标识的标的在常规交易时段的成交金额。本页面仅讨论经过验证的实体。

交易盘面构成

查询成交明细与报价统计 —— 全周
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH
    (
        SELECT (round(count() / 1e6, 2),
                round(100.0 * countIf(bid_price > 0 AND ask_price > 0 AND ask_price > bid_price) / count(), 2))
        FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
        WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
          AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
    ) AS quote_census
SELECT
    round(count() / 1e6, 2) AS prints_m,
    quantileDeterministic(0.5)(toFloat64(size), toUInt64(abs(sequence_number))) AS median_print_shares,
    round(100.0 * countIf(size < 100) / count(), 1) AS odd_lot_pct_of_prints,
    quote_census.1 AS nbbo_updates_m,
    quote_census.2 AS clean_two_sided_pct
FROM global_markets.stocks_trades
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)

5.52 百万笔成交，其中 80.1% 为非标准股数，对比 2.2 百万次 NBBO 更新（99.35% 为纯双边报价）。上市一个月后，其微观结构与任何大型活跃股票无异。

价差：波动持续

查询分时中值报价价差，常规时段（中值 bps）
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    session,
    round(quantileDeterministicIf(0.5)((toFloat64(ask_price) - toFloat64(bid_price)) / ((toFloat64(ask_price) + toFloat64(bid_price)) / 2) * 10000, toUInt64(toUnixTimestamp64Micro(sip_timestamp)), bid_price > 0 AND ask_price >= bid_price), 2) AS med_spread_bps,
    count() AS quote_updates
FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 13:30:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
  AND (toHour(sip_timestamp) * 60 + toMinute(sip_timestamp)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
GROUP BY toDate(toTimeZone(sip_timestamp, 'America/New_York')) AS session
ORDER BY session

周一常规交易时段的中位数价差为 3.12 bps，周中扩大至 4.07 bps，周五回落至 2.7 bps。尽管该新上市证券的价格在下跌，但其价差波动已达到知名证券的水平。流动性提供与价格方向是两个不同的维度；本周两者表现分化明显。

期权：市价以下为看跌期权，市价以上为博彩型看涨期权

查询新实体期权全周数据 —— 合约数、看涨/看跌比、最活跃合约
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH
    (
        SELECT concat('$', toString(round(toFloat64(toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8))) / 1000, 2)),
               if(substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P', ' put', ' call'),
               ', expiry 20', substring(ticker, 7, 2), '-', substring(ticker, 9, 2), '-', substring(ticker, 11, 2))
        FROM global_markets.options_trades
        WHERE startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPCX') AND length(ticker) = 21
          AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
        GROUP BY ticker ORDER BY sum(size) DESC LIMIT 1
    ) AS busiest_name
SELECT
    round(sum(size) / 1e6, 2) AS contracts_traded_m,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P')) / toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'C')), 2) AS week_put_call_ratio,
    round(sum(toFloat64(price) * size) * 100 / 1e9, 2) AS premium_notional_busd,
    busiest_name AS busiest_contract
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPCX') AND length(ticker) = 21
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)

该账簿交易了 3.14 百万份合约，看跌/看涨期权比率为 0.8 —— 看涨期权数量仍多于看跌期权，但看跌期权的权重远高于典型的单只股票（NVDA 同周的账簿比率约为该数值的一半）。比率无法说明看跌期权的分布位置，但行权价分布图可以：

查询本周各行权价合约分布（$20 为单位；$80 与 $240 为上限）
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    concat('$', toString(toUInt32(bucket))) AS strike_bucket,
    toUInt64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'C')) AS call_contracts,
    toUInt64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P')) AS put_contracts,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P') / sum(size), 1) AS put_share_pct,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 7, 6) <= '260717') / sum(size), 1) AS expiring_by_jul17_pct,
    round(100 * sum(size) / max(sum(size)) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_biggest_bucket
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPCX') AND length(ticker) = 21
  AND toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8)) > 0
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
GROUP BY least(greatest(floor(toFloat64(toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8))) / 1000 / 20) * 20, 80), 240) AS bucket
ORDER BY bucket

分布呈哑铃型。在交易区间下方，账簿几乎全是看跌期权：$120 价格区间内有 95.9% 的看跌期权（333149 份合约），其下方的每个区间看跌期权占比也均超过 90%。平值 $140 区间的成交量最大 —— 其中包含 61.1% 的看跌期权，且 83.2% 将在 7 月 17 日到期。在交易区间上方，趋势反转（$160 价格处看跌期权占比为 15.5%），远端尾部几乎全是看涨期权：$240 及以上区间有 413356 份看涨期权合约，其中包含了本周成交最活跃的单份合约（$450 call, expiry 2026-07-17）。该表格可以说明的是：看跌期权集中在市价及市价以下 —— 这是典型的下行保护特征 —— 而远端看涨期权则处于极高位。该表格无法说明的是：这些看跌期权是用于对冲股票风险，还是表达纯粹的看跌观点；成交数据本身并不包含身份或意图（看跌/看涨期权比率说明 明确了这一界限）。

空头头寸：本次关注分母

查询本周 FINRA 日度卖空成交量 —— 卖空股数及场外成交股数
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT toString(date) AS d,
       round(toFloat64(any(short_volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS short_shares_m,
       round(toFloat64(any(total_volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS offexchange_total_m,
       round(100 * toFloat64(any(short_volume)) / toFloat64(any(total_volume)), 1) AS short_pct_of_offexchange
FROM global_markets.stocks_short_volume
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND date >= toDate('2026-07-06') AND date <= toDate('2026-07-10')
GROUP BY date
ORDER BY date

周一报告的卖空成交量为 23.7M 股，周五降至 12.2M 股，与总成交量走势一致；在场外成交量中所占比例维持在 66.8% 左右。正如 空头成交量说明 所述，这主要是做市商的业务需求（通过卖空来完成客户买单），而非方向性博弈。需注意两点：首先，7月7日的全市场文件不完整（详见每周市场回顾），因此本周仅显示了 4 份日文件而非五份；其次，卖空成交量代表资金流，而非持仓量。持仓量记录在空头头寸系列中：

查询新实体至今的卖空头寸记录及隐含回补天数
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT toString(settlement_date) AS settlement,
       round(toFloat64(max(short_interest)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_short_m,
       round(toFloat64(max(avg_daily_volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS avg_daily_volume_m,
       max(days_to_cover) AS vendor_days_to_cover,
       round(toFloat64(max(short_interest)) / toFloat64(max(avg_daily_volume)), 2) AS implied_days_to_cover
FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND settlement_date >= toDate('2026-06-01') AND settlement_date <= toDate('2026-06-30')
GROUP BY settlement_date
ORDER BY settlement_date

在 2026-06-15 与 2026-06-30 结算日之间，卖空股数从 23.3M 增至 111.3M。但分母至关重要：若以供应商的 151.6M 股日均成交量计算，隐含的 回补天数 仅为 0.73（供应商的最低值设定为 1）——整个空头头寸可在平均一个交易日内完成回补。需说明的是：自 首月页面 首次发布以来，数据源已对6月15日的数据进行了一次重报——这些数字是其当前记录，并在每次重新生成时经过核对。

后市关注重点

需关注以下四个方面。指数成分股调整的资金流具有一次性特征——指数基金在纳入后买入并持有——因此周一的 17.55B 交易盘面已构成上限，该机制不会再次触发类似买盘。7 月 17 日的到期日将使大部分平值期权头寸（占最大行权价档位的 83.2%）失效；观察看跌期权支撑位（put wall）是否重建，是判断对冲买盘是否持续的最清晰指标。下一份卖空头寸结算报告将通过 FINRA 的常规延迟数据 发布，用以显示在股价下跌前卖空股数是否持续增长。关于每家 IPO 的现有供应量日期——即禁售期届满日——请参阅下方的常见问题解答。

常见问题

SPCX 的股价是否仍高于其 IPO 发行价？

高于发行价，但低于首次公开交易价格。SPCX 本周收于 $145.4 —— 比 $135 的发行价高出 7.7%，但低于 6 月 12 日公开交易开始时的 $150 开盘价。

SPCX 的看跌/看涨期权比率（Put-Call Ratio）意味着什么？

每 1 份看涨期权对应 0.8 份看跌期权 —— 看涨期权数量仍多于看跌期权，但其比例大约是 NVDA 期权账本 同期倾斜度的两倍。仅凭该比率无法区分对冲行为与看跌押注；期权行权价分布显示，看跌期权集中在市价及市价以下，这反映了对冲保护的需求。

为什么指数纳入带来的买盘消失了？

指数纳入属于一次性调仓：追踪基金在生效日前后买入，随后转为持有。7 月 6 日的大规模收盘集合竞价即是此类买入行为；该机制不会再次进行购买。

6 月份的首次交易价是 SPCX 的支撑位吗？

$150 是 6 月 12 日开盘集合竞价的价格 —— 这是一个参考点，而非机械性的支撑位。本周常规交易时段有 790 分钟的交易价格低于该水平，且有 3 次收盘价低于该水平，因此它作为硬支撑位的功能已经失效。

SPCX 的 IPO 禁售期何时结束？

招股说明书规定了具体日期；惯例期限为发行后 180 天 —— 对于 2026 年 6 月 12 日上市的股票，禁售期将于 2026 年 12 月初结束。在禁售期结束前，大多数内部人士和 IPO 前股份不得出售；禁售期结束 是所有 IPO 日历上的标准供应释放日期。

数据说明

所有时间戳均为 UTC；常规交易时段为 UTC 810-1199 分钟（EDT 交易时段）；首秀对比面板则过滤 9:30-16:00 ET 时间段，以确保冬季上市股票保持在真实交易时段内。本周时间范围为 7 月 6 日至 10 日，前一收盘价取自 7 月 2 日（周四，7 月 3 日为节假日）。该代码位于模糊性保护名单中：每个 SPCX 窗口均从该已验证实体 2026 年 6 月 12 日上市或之后开始，且代码历史面板会显示旧实体的边界。“处于亏损状态 (underwater)”指标计算常规交易时段内，收盘价低于首笔交易价格（即作为声明列发布的 6 月 12 日开盘集合竞价价格）的分钟数，而非发行价。首秀对比是从每只股票自身的首个常规交易时段开始，到其自身的第 28 个交易日收盘为止——使用统一标准，但采用不同的日历——发行价取自 IPO 记录。OCC 期权代码按位置解析；行权价无法解析的将被“行权价 > 0”过滤器排除。新闻计数和引用标题衡量的是单一聚合数据源；标题内容仅截取首句。卖空成交量继承自其原始文件的完整性（如上文标记）；卖空头寸序列此前曾进行过重述。

方法论

  • 数据来源：综合行情数据 — delayed_stocks_minute_aggs, stocks_trades, cache_stocks_quotes, options_trades, stocks_news, stocks_ipos，以及 FINRA stocks_short_volume 和 stocks_short_interest。
  • 实体校验：通过 verified_tickers 断言进行验证；时间窗口限定于上市后的实体；页面以重用收据为准。
  • 确定性聚合：实时计算前期及跨市场对比数据，绝不引用其他文章的内容。
  • 数据仓库截止日期：2026年7月12日。

交叉链接：首月数据，指数新增，较峰值跌幅，以及 本周市场回顾。每个面板均为单一存储对象（图表、表格或 SQL），所有查询均在 Strasmore 终端运行。

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