SPCX: SPCX上市后首个低于发行价的一周
SPCX在2026年7月6日当周跌入水下:五个交易日中三日收于首日成交价下方,周五创上市后收盘新低,详解资金流出与关键数据。
SPCX spent the week of July 6, 2026 doing what young listings are never supposed to do: it went underwater. From the prior week's $161.86 close, the stock fell -10.2% across five sessions to $145.4, closing under the $150 first-trade price on 3 of 5 sessions and printing a new post-listing closing low on Friday. The week opened with the last surge of index-add flow and closed on the quietest tape since listing, the first analyst ratings and first public-life quarterly numbers landing in between. Every number below is a stored query, expand any panel for the SQL.
首先核对记录:这里的 SPCX 指什么
SPCX 此前属于另一只无关联证券。因此,这里的每个时间窗口都对应于 2026 年 6 月 12 日上市的实体 Space Exploration Technologies Corp.(首月深度分析包含完整核验):
| 月份 | 分钟线 | 最低价(美元) | 最高价(美元) | 股票数(百万) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-01 | 58 | 24.3 | 26.4 | 0.02 |
| 2025-08-01 | 48 | 24 | 25.01 | 0.02 |
| 2025-09-01 | 64 | 23.77 | 25.35 | 0.02 |
| 2025-10-01 | 45 | 24.63 | 25.91 | 0.02 |
| 2025-11-01 | 27 | 25.3 | 25.73 | 0.01 |
| 2025-12-01 | 101 | 21.32 | 25.57 | 0.04 |
| 2026-01-01 | 46 | 21.67 | 22.51 | 0.02 |
| 2026-02-01 | 30 | 21.69 | 22.57 | 0.01 |
| 2026-03-01 | 64 | 21.62 | 22.59 | 0.04 |
| 2026-04-01 | 13 | 21.92 | 23.64 | 0.01 |
| 2026-06-01 | 10960 | 146.88 | 225.64 | 2168.65 |
| 2026-07-01 | 6608 | 145.07 | 176.14 | 485.33 |
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
toStartOfMonth(window_start) AS month,
count() AS minute_bars,
round(min(toFloat64(low)), 2) AS low_usd,
round(max(toFloat64(high)), 2) AS high_usd,
round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 2) AS shares_m
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
AND window_start >= toDateTime('2025-07-01 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
GROUP BY month
ORDER BY month数月的空档期表示旧实体退出交易记录;2026 年 6 月起出现的大量成交柱代表新实体。下文仅涉及这些成交记录。
一周概览
| 上周收盘价 | 本周收盘价 | 周变动百分比 | 周最高价 | 周最低价 | 周最低价时段(ET) | 常规交易时段低于150的分钟数 | 浮亏阈值(美元) | 收盘价低于150 | 前收盘低点 | 新低差额(美元) | 常规交易时段成交额(十亿美元) | 本周股票数(百万) | 观测交易日数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 161.86 | 145.4 | -10.2 | 167.9 | 145.07 | 2026-07-10 15:59 | 790 | 150 | 3 | 152.74 | 7.34 | 41.7 | 327.7 | 5 |
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH
(
SELECT argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
) AS pw_close,
(
SELECT min(toFloat64(low)) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
) AS lo,
(
SELECT max(toFloat64(high)) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
) AS hi,
(
SELECT min(c) FROM (
SELECT argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS c
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-12 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
GROUP BY toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))
)
) AS prior_low_close,
(
SELECT countIf(c < 150) FROM (
SELECT argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS c
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
GROUP BY toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))
)
) AS closes_under_150
SELECT
round(pw_close, 2) AS prior_week_close,
round(toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)), 2) AS week_close,
round((toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)) / pw_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS week_change_pct,
round(hi, 2) AS week_high,
round(lo, 2) AS week_low,
formatDateTime(toTimeZone(minIf(window_start, toFloat64(low) <= lo + 0.011), 'America/New_York'), '%Y-%m-%d %H:%i') AS week_low_bar_et,
countIf(toFloat64(close) < 150 AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS rth_minutes_below_150,
150 AS underwater_threshold_usd,
closes_under_150 AS closes_below_150,
round(prior_low_close, 2) AS prior_closing_low,
round(prior_low_close - toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)), 2) AS new_low_margin_usd,
round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / 1e9, 1) AS rth_dollar_bn,
round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS week_shares_m,
uniqExact(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS session_days_observed
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')本周 -10.2%,最高价为 $167.9,最低价为 $145.07(于 2026-07-10 15:59 ET 录得),且常规交易时段 790 分钟低于 $150 的首笔交易价格。周五收于 $145.4,低于上市后此前 $152.74 的收盘低点。
需要说明的是:“水下”是指低于 6月12日开盘集合竞价价格,即公众买方最初支付的价格,详见上市首月深度分析;若以较低的发行价衡量,该上市标的仍处于水上。常规交易时段成交额合计为:在 5 个交易日内达到 41.7B。
逐个交易日:资金流出
| ET日期 | 收盘价(美元) | 变动百分比 | 股票数(百万) | 成交额(十亿美元) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | 160.4 | -0.9 | 109.8 | 17.55 |
| 2026-07-07 | 149.58 | -6.7 | 74.1 | 11.3 |
| 2026-07-08 | 148.33 | -0.8 | 57.7 | 8.58 |
| 2026-07-09 | 152.12 | 2.6 | 43.3 | 6.53 |
| 2026-07-10 | 145.4 | -4.4 | 42.7 | 6.31 |
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
et_date,
close_usd,
round(if(prev_close = 0, NULL, (close_usd / prev_close - 1) * 100), 1) AS change_pct,
shares_m,
dollar_bn
FROM (
SELECT et_date, close_usd, shares_m, dollar_bn,
lagInFrame(close_usd) OVER (ORDER BY et_date ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_close
FROM (
SELECT
toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199), 2) AS close_usd,
round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m,
round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS dollar_bn
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
GROUP BY et_date
)
)
WHERE et_date >= toDate('2026-07-06')
ORDER BY et_date周一成交额为 17.55B,指数纳入带来的资金流入尾声已在指数纳入深度解析中记录。随后资金流出:周二为 11.3B(根据从峰值回落分析,这是首次收盘价低于 $150 的 -6.7% 个交易日),到周五降至 6.31B,约为周一成交额的三分之一。周四上涨 2.6% 未能维持;周五收跌 -4.4%,报 $145.4。
新闻信息流实际报道了什么
当股价持续下跌时,信息流在报道什么?标题传达的信息,是单纯计数无法体现的。
| 本周文章数 | 发布方 | 指数纳入标题 | 静默期标题 | 静默期日期 | 业绩标题 | 业绩日期 | 借款标题 | 借款日期 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 3 | 5 | Analysts Go All-In on SpaceX as the Quiet Period Ends | 2026-07-07 | SpaceX Lost $4.28 Billion on $4.7 Billion in Revenue Last Quarter | 2026-07-09 | SpaceX Borrowed $25 Billion and Is Buying Up AI Companies | 2026-07-07 |
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH
(
SELECT (arrayElement(splitByString('. ', argMin(title, published_utc)), 1), toString(min(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')))))
FROM global_markets.stocks_news
WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX') AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
AND title ILIKE '%quiet period%'
) AS quiet,
(
SELECT (arrayElement(splitByString('. ', argMin(title, published_utc)), 1), toString(min(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')))))
FROM global_markets.stocks_news
WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX') AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
AND title ILIKE '%lost%revenue%'
) AS results,
(
SELECT (arrayElement(splitByString('. ', argMin(title, published_utc)), 1), toString(min(toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')))))
FROM global_markets.stocks_news
WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX') AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')
AND title ILIKE '%borrowed%'
) AS borrow
SELECT
count() AS week_articles,
uniqExact(JSONExtractString(publisher, 'name')) AS publishers,
countIf(title ILIKE '%nasdaq-100%') AS index_add_headlines,
quiet.1 AS quiet_period_headline,
quiet.2 AS quiet_period_date,
results.1 AS results_headline,
results.2 AS results_date,
borrow.1 AS borrowing_headline,
borrow.2 AS borrowing_date
FROM global_markets.stocks_news
WHERE has(tickers, 'SPCX')
AND published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 04:00:00')
AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-11 04:00:00')来自 3 家出版机构的文章共 51 篇;标题主要围绕三条主线展开。在 2026-07-07,信息流自身的表述是“Analysts Go All-In on SpaceX as the Quiet Period Ends”:IPO 承销商结束上市后的沉默,评级开始发布;当天也是 -6.7% 交易时段。在 2026-07-09,标题为“SpaceX Lost $4.28 Billion on $4.7 Billion in Revenue Last Quarter”:该股票上市后的首份季度数据进入信息流。与此同时,资产负债表主线的标题为“SpaceX Borrowed $25 Billion and Is Buying Up AI Companies”(2026-07-07),另有 5 个标题涉及纳斯达克100指数新增该股。通常需要注意:这里反映的是一个聚合信息流的关注点,而不是全球媒体的关注点;股价下跌与这些主线只是发生在同一日历期间,本表只能证明二者同时出现。
该实体截至目前的完整周度表格
| 期间开始 | 周回报率 (%) | 周常规交易时段金额 ($bn) | 交易时段 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 7.5 | 81.2 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | 7.7 | 166.5 | 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | -13.2 | 74 | 5 |
| 2026-06-29 | 2.9 | 45.3 | 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | -12.4 | 41.7 | 5 |
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
toString(wk) AS period_start,
round(ret, 1) AS week_return_pct,
round(dollar_bn, 1) AS week_rth_dollar_bn,
sessions
FROM (
SELECT toStartOfWeek(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), 1) AS wk,
uniqExact(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS sessions,
(argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / argMinIf(toFloat64(open), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) - 1) * 100 AS ret,
sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / 1e9 AS dollar_bn
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-12 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
GROUP BY wk
)
ORDER BY period_start五个日历周的运行记录都在这张小表中:上市首日涨幅、峰值、回落,以及现在的情况:一个从开盘到收盘变动为 -12.4%、成交额为 41.7B 美元的周。基准线来自该实体此前自身的交易记录,并实时计算;每新增一周,都会改写五分之一的历史数据。
这种回落正常吗?另外六个大型上市首日表现,采用同一标尺
这是正常的 IPO 上市后消化,还是更严重的问题?检验方法是:对比过去两年市值超过十亿美元的其他 IPO,统一采用从常规交易时段首笔成交到第 28 个交易日常规交易时段收盘的表现。
| 股票代码 | 上市 | 发行价 | 首次交易开盘价 | 第28日收盘价 | 开盘至第28日 (%) | 发行至第28日 (%) | 是否 SPCX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VG | 2025-01-24 | 25 | 24.05 | 15.39 | -36 | -38.4 | 0 |
| CBRS | 2026-05-14 | 185 | 350 | 227 | -35.1 | 22.7 | 0 |
| KLAR | 2025-09-10 | 40 | 52 | 42.17 | -18.9 | 5.4 | 0 |
| SPCX | 2026-06-12 | 135 | 150 | 145.4 | -3.1 | 7.7 | 1 |
| LINE | 2024-07-25 | 78 | 82 | 84.38 | 2.9 | 8.2 | 0 |
| CRWV | 2025-03-28 | 40 | 39 | 41.56 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 0 |
| MDLN | 2025-12-17 | 29 | 35 | 43.38 | 23.9 | 49.6 | 0 |
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
b.ticker AS ticker,
toString(any(i.ld)) AS listed,
round(any(i.ipx), 2) AS issue_px,
round(argMinIf(toFloat64(b.open), b.window_start, rth), 2) AS first_trade_open,
round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(b.close), b.window_start, rth), 2) AS day28_close,
round((argMaxIf(toFloat64(b.close), b.window_start, rth) / argMinIf(toFloat64(b.open), b.window_start, rth) - 1) * 100, 1) AS open_to_day28_pct,
round((argMaxIf(toFloat64(b.close), b.window_start, rth) / any(i.ipx) - 1) * 100, 1) AS issue_to_day28_pct,
toUInt8(b.ticker = 'SPCX') AS is_spcx
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs AS b
INNER JOIN (
SELECT ticker, max(listing_date) AS ld, argMax(toFloat64(final_issue_price), listing_date) AS ipx
FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos
WHERE ticker IN ('SPCX', 'CRWV', 'CBRS', 'KLAR', 'VG', 'MDLN', 'LINE')
GROUP BY ticker
) AS i ON b.ticker = i.ticker
WHERE b.ticker IN ('SPCX', 'CRWV', 'CBRS', 'KLAR', 'VG', 'MDLN', 'LINE')
AND b.window_start >= toDateTime('2024-07-25 00:00:00')
AND b.window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
AND toDate(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= i.ld
AND toDate(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= i.ld + 28
AND ((toHour(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(b.window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS rth
GROUP BY b.ticker
ORDER BY open_to_day28_pct按这一标尺,SPCX 的 -3.1% 处于中游。VG(-36%)、CBRS(-35.1%)和 KLAR(-18.9%)从首笔公开交易起跌幅更大;MDLN 在上市首月上涨了 23.9%。若改为相对发行价计算,SPCX 的 +7.7% 与表中多数 IPO 的位置一致:高于发行价,但低于开盘成交价;VG 是表中唯一一个在第 28 个交易日收于自身发行价下方的 IPO。根据这一证据,大型 IPO 首月从开盘成交价回吐涨幅是一种常见形态,并不代表出现了困境信号。
仍是重量级标的,但影响力正在减弱
| 股票代码 | 常规交易时段金额 ($bn) | 占领先者 (%) | 是否 SPCX |
|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 164 | 100 | 0 |
| SPY | 137.3 | 83.7 | 0 |
| NVDA | 107.1 | 65.3 | 0 |
| QQQ | 103.4 | 63.1 | 0 |
| SNDK | 88 | 53.7 | 0 |
| TSLA | 69.3 | 42.2 | 0 |
| META | 58.3 | 35.5 | 0 |
| AMD | 58 | 35.4 | 0 |
| AAPL | 50.5 | 30.8 | 0 |
| INTC | 47.9 | 29.2 | 0 |
| SPCX | 41.7 | 25.4 | 1 |
| MSFT | 41.1 | 25.1 | 0 |
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
ticker,
round(sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close)) / 1e9, 1) AS regular_hours_dollar_bn,
round(100 * sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close)) / max(sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close))) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_leader,
toUInt8(ticker = 'SPCX') AS is_spcx
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
GROUP BY ticker
ORDER BY regular_hours_dollar_bn DESC
LIMIT 12| SPCX 排名 | SPCX 金额 ($bn) | 占领先者 (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | 41.7 | 25.4 |
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH (
SELECT sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close))
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
) AS spcx_d
SELECT
countIf(d > spcx_d AND ticker != 'SPCX') + 1 AS spcx_rank,
round(spcx_d / 1e9, 1) AS spcx_dollar_bn,
round(100 * spcx_d / max(d), 1) AS pct_of_leader
FROM (
SELECT ticker, sum(toFloat64(volume) * toFloat64(close)) AS d
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-11 00:00:00')
AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
GROUP BY ticker
)按本周成交额排名,eleventh 仍是市场成交最活跃的标的之一,成交额为本周榜首的 25.4%。六月上市后的窗口期内,它曾位居市场成交额前列。统计口径为:五个交易日内各 ticker 在常规交易时段的成交额;纳入带有成交回执标记的标的,而非将其排除。本页面主题即为经核验的实体。
成交记录的构成
| 成交笔数 (百万) | 成交笔数中位数(股) | 零股成交占比 (%) | NBBO 更新次数 (百万) | 清晰双边报价 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.52 | 10 | 80.1 | 2.2 | 99.35 |
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH
(
SELECT (round(count() / 1e6, 2),
round(100.0 * countIf(bid_price > 0 AND ask_price > 0 AND ask_price > bid_price) / count(), 2))
FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
) AS quote_census
SELECT
round(count() / 1e6, 2) AS prints_m,
quantileDeterministic(0.5)(toFloat64(size), toUInt64(abs(sequence_number))) AS median_print_shares,
round(100.0 * countIf(size < 100) / count(), 1) AS odd_lot_pct_of_prints,
quote_census.1 AS nbbo_updates_m,
quote_census.2 AS clean_two_sided_pct
FROM global_markets.stocks_trades
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)5.52 百万笔成交,其中 80.1% 笔为零碎股,期间共有 2.2 百万次 NBBO 更新(99.35% 次为有效双边报价)。上市一个月后,其微观结构已与任何交易活跃的大型股票相似。
spread:调味行情仍在继续
| 交易时段 | 中位价差(基点) | 报价更新 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | 3.12 | 417594 |
| 2026-07-07 | 3.93 | 498486 |
| 2026-07-08 | 4.07 | 384283 |
| 2026-07-09 | 3.99 | 341861 |
| 2026-07-10 | 2.7 | 350334 |
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
session,
round(quantileDeterministicIf(0.5)((toFloat64(ask_price) - toFloat64(bid_price)) / ((toFloat64(ask_price) + toFloat64(bid_price)) / 2) * 10000, toUInt64(toUnixTimestamp64Micro(sip_timestamp)), bid_price > 0 AND ask_price >= bid_price), 2) AS med_spread_bps,
count() AS quote_updates
FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX'
AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 13:30:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
AND (toHour(sip_timestamp) * 60 + toMinute(sip_timestamp)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
GROUP BY toDate(toTimeZone(sip_timestamp, 'America/New_York')) AS session
ORDER BY session常规交易时段的中位 spread 周一开盘为 3.12 个基点,周中扩大至 4.07 个基点,周五回落至 2.7 个基点。该新上市标的的价格下跌,但其 spread 仍在大型标的的区间内剧烈波动。流动性供给与价格方向由不同机制驱动;本周两者明显分化。
期权:低于市场价的看跌期权,以及高于市场价的彩票式看涨期权
| 成交合约数 (百万) | 周看跌/看涨比 | 权利金名义金额 ($bn) | 最活跃合约 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.14 | 0.8 | 1.71 | $450 call, expiry 2026-07-17 |
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH
(
SELECT concat('$', toString(round(toFloat64(toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8))) / 1000, 2)),
if(substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P', ' put', ' call'),
', expiry 20', substring(ticker, 7, 2), '-', substring(ticker, 9, 2), '-', substring(ticker, 11, 2))
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPCX') AND length(ticker) = 21
AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
GROUP BY ticker ORDER BY sum(size) DESC LIMIT 1
) AS busiest_name
SELECT
round(sum(size) / 1e6, 2) AS contracts_traded_m,
round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P')) / toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'C')), 2) AS week_put_call_ratio,
round(sum(toFloat64(price) * size) * 100 / 1e9, 2) AS premium_notional_busd,
busiest_name AS busiest_contract
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPCX') AND length(ticker) = 21
AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)该期权簿成交了 3.14 百万张合约,看跌期权与看涨期权的比率为 0.8。看涨期权数量仍多于看跌期权,但看跌期权的权重远高于典型的单只股票(NVDA 同周到期合约的期权簿该比率约为其一半)。比率无法说明看跌期权位于何处。行权价分布图可以:
| 行权价区间 | 看涨合约 | 看跌合约 | 看跌份额(%) | 7月17日前到期(%) | 占最大区间(%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80 | 3949 | 91378 | 95.9 | 1.8 | 7.8 |
| $100 | 7474 | 118334 | 94.1 | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| $120 | 14297 | 333149 | 95.9 | 46.2 | 28.5 |
| $140 | 474486 | 745914 | 61.1 | 83.2 | 100 |
| $160 | 461688 | 84946 | 15.5 | 77.9 | 44.8 |
| $180 | 214378 | 6951 | 3.1 | 70.4 | 18.1 |
| $200 | 104763 | 16795 | 13.8 | 64.9 | 10 |
| $220 | 46573 | 1180 | 2.5 | 71.7 | 3.9 |
| $240 | 413356 | 2229 | 0.5 | 83.7 | 34.1 |
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
concat('$', toString(toUInt32(bucket))) AS strike_bucket,
toUInt64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'C')) AS call_contracts,
toUInt64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P')) AS put_contracts,
round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 13, 1) = 'P') / sum(size), 1) AS put_share_pct,
round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, 7, 6) <= '260717') / sum(size), 1) AS expiring_by_jul17_pct,
round(100 * sum(size) / max(sum(size)) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_biggest_bucket
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPCX') AND length(ticker) = 21
AND toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8)) > 0
AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-07-06 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-11 00:00:00', 9)
GROUP BY least(greatest(floor(toFloat64(toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, 14, 8))) / 1000 / 20) * 20, 80), 240) AS bucket
ORDER BY bucket其形态呈杠铃状。在交易区间下方,期权簿几乎完全由看跌期权构成:$120 区间中有 95.9% 看跌期权(333149 张合约),其下每个区间的看跌期权占比也都超过百分之九十。平值 $140 区间的成交量在所有区间中最高,其中有 61.1% 张看跌期权,83.2% 的合约在七月十七日前到期。在交易区间上方,多空方向反转($160 行权价处有 15.5% 张看跌期权),而远端尾部几乎全是看涨期权:$240 及以上区间有 413356 张看涨期权,其中包括本周成交最活跃的单一合约($450 call, expiry 2026-07-17)。该表能够说明的是:看跌期权集中在市场价及其下方,这是典型的下行保护特征;远高于市场价的位置则有长期权看涨期权。该表无法说明的是:这些看跌期权是在对冲股票,还是在表达直接的看跌观点;成交记录本身不包含交易者身份或意图(看跌-看涨期权比率解析对此作出了区分)。
空头,这次加入分母
| 日 | 卖空股数(百万) | 场外交易总量(百万) | 场外交易中卖空占比(%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | 23.7 | 35.5 | 66.8 |
| 2026-07-08 | 18.7 | 25.3 | 73.8 |
| 2026-07-09 | 12.1 | 18.5 | 65.4 |
| 2026-07-10 | 12.2 | 17.3 | 70.5 |
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT toString(date) AS d,
round(toFloat64(any(short_volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS short_shares_m,
round(toFloat64(any(total_volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS offexchange_total_m,
round(100 * toFloat64(any(short_volume)) / toFloat64(any(total_volume)), 1) AS short_pct_of_offexchange
FROM global_markets.stocks_short_volume
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND date >= toDate('2026-07-06') AND date <= toDate('2026-07-10')
GROUP BY date
ORDER BY date报告的空头成交量从周一的 23.7M 股降至周五的 12.2M 股,跟随全市场成交量走低;占场外成交量的比例维持在 66.8% 附近,主要反映做市商的交易流程(通过卖空来满足客户买入需求),而非方向性押注,详见空头成交量说明。有两点需要注意:7月7日的全市场文件不完整(周度市场回顾中的记录),因此本周显示的是 4 份日度文件,而不是五份;此外,空头成交量是交易流量,不是持仓。持仓数据见融券余额序列:
| 结算价 | 卖空股数(百万) | 日均成交量(百万) | 供应商口径补仓天数 | 隐含补仓天数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | 23.3 | 69.2 | 1 | 0.34 |
| 2026-06-30 | 111.3 | 151.6 | 1 | 0.73 |
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT toString(settlement_date) AS settlement,
round(toFloat64(max(short_interest)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_short_m,
round(toFloat64(max(avg_daily_volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS avg_daily_volume_m,
max(days_to_cover) AS vendor_days_to_cover,
round(toFloat64(max(short_interest)) / toFloat64(max(avg_daily_volume)), 2) AS implied_days_to_cover
FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
WHERE ticker = 'SPCX' AND settlement_date >= toDate('2026-06-01') AND settlement_date <= toDate('2026-06-30')
GROUP BY settlement_date
ORDER BY settlement_date在 2026-06-15 和 2026-06-30 两个结算日之间,卖空股数从 23.3M 股增至 111.3M 股,但分母很重要:以供应商统计的 151.6M 股日均成交量计算,隐含的回补天数仅为 0.73(供应商自身字段的下限为 1),整个空头持仓可在一个平均交易日内完成回补。有一点需要说明:自首月页面首次发布以来,数据源已对6月15日的成交记录进行过一次修订;这些数字是当前记录,并在每次重新生成时重新运行并完成边界检查。
接下来关注什么
有四条线索仍未明朗。指数纳入带来的资金流本质上是一次性的:指数基金在纳入时买入,随后持有。因此,周一的 17.55B 盘面是这一机制不会再次形成的上限。7月17日到期日将消化大部分平值期权交易量(最大行权价区间的 83.2%);看跌期权支撑墙在哪里重建,是判断保护性买盘是否持续的最清晰依据。下一次空头持仓结算数据将在 FINRA通常的滞后期 后发布,可显示空头股数是否在下跌过程中继续增加。每家IPO的锁定期到期日,即其既定供给释放日,也将在下方的常见问题中说明。
常见问题
SPCX目前仍高于IPO发行价吗?
高于发行价,但低于首笔公开交易价格。SPCX本周收于$145.4,较$135发行价高出7.7%,但低于6月12日公开交易开始时的$150开盘集合竞价价位。
SPCX的认沽—认购比实际意味着什么?
每份认购期权对应成交了0.8份认沽期权。认购期权数量仍多于认沽期权,但这一倾向约为NVDA期权簿同期的两倍。单凭这一比率无法区分对冲与看跌押注;行权价分布显示,认沽期权集中在市场价及其下方,这反映了保护性仓位的构成。
为什么指数纳入带来的买盘消失了?
纳入指数只会触发一次再平衡:跟踪基金在生效日前后买入,随后持有。7月6日巨大的收盘集合竞价就是这笔买入的执行,之后该机制不会再次买入。
6月首笔交易价格是SPCX的支撑位吗?
$150是6月12日开盘集合竞价的成交价,是一个参考点,而非机械支撑位。本周该股有790个常规交易时段分钟数低于这一价位,并有3次收于其下方,因此作为强支撑位,它已经失守。
SPCX的IPO限售期何时到期?
招股说明书规定具体日期;按惯例,限售期为发行日起180天。对于2026年6月12日上市的股票,限售期将在2026年12月初到期。在限售期结束前,大多数内部人士持股和IPO前股份不得出售;限售期到期是每份IPO日历上的标准供给事件。
数据说明
所有时间戳均为 UTC;常规交易时段为 UTC 分钟数 810–1199 区间(EDT 时段)。上市首日对比面板则按东部时间 9:30–16:00 筛选,因此冬季上市仍对应真实交易时段。本周为 7 月 6–10 日,前收盘价取自 7 月 2 日星期四(7 月 3 日为节假日)。该代码位于歧义防护名单中:每个 SPCX 窗口均始于 2026 年 6 月 12 日经核实实体上市当日或之后,且代码历史面板会显示旧实体的边界。“水下”指标统计常规交易时段内的分钟数,计算收盘价低于首次交易价的分钟;首次交易价为 6 月 12 日的开盘撮合价,并作为声明列输出,而非发行价。上市首日对比从每个上市标的自身的首笔常规时段交易开始,计算至自身第 28 日收盘;采用相同的计算标尺,但交易日历不同,发行价取自 IPO 记录。OCC 期权代码按位置解析;无法解析的行权价通过行权价 > 0 的筛选条件排除。新闻数量和引用的标题均来自一个聚合信息源;标题记录截取首句。卖空成交量沿用其源文件的完整性状态,相关标记已在上文列出;卖空权益序列此前已重新整理。
方法论
- 来源:综合行情带、
delayed_stocks_minute_aggs、stocks_trades、cache_stocks_quotes、options_trades、stocks_news、stocks_ipos、FINRAstocks_short_volume和stocks_short_interest。 - 实体一致性:已核验 verified_tickers 断言;时间窗口限定为上市后的该实体;复用凭证置于页面首位。
- 聚合结果具有确定性;前期比较和跨上市比较均实时计算,从不引用其他文章中的数据。
- 数据仓库截至日期:2026年7月12日。
交叉链接:第一个月、纳入指数、从峰值回落和本周市场回顾。每个面板均对应一个已存储对象,包括图表、表格和 SQL;每条查询均在 Strasmore 终端上运行。