Shughuli zisizo za kawaida za machaguo

Shughuli zisizo za kawaida za machaguo (options) humaanisha hisa moja inayofanya biashara ya mikataba ya machaguo mingi zaidi katika kikao kuliko wastani wake wa hivi karibuni. Jedwali hili linapanga shughuli hizo kwa kikao cha mwisho kilichokamilika, Jul 22: jumla ya mikataba iliyofanywa dhidi ya wastani wa hisa hiyo hiyo katika vikao 20 vilivyotangulia. Taarifa za machaguo hufika baada ya taarifa za hisa, hivyo kikao kilichotajwa hapa ni kipya zaidi kilichokamilika katika data zetu badala ya cha leo.

Jambo moja la kufafanua kabla ya jedwali: huu ni mchujio wa ujazo (volume screen). Alert nyingi za machaguo zisizo za kawaida zinayozingatiwa hulinganisha ujazo wa siku moja dhidi ya open interest, ambayo ni idadi ya mikataba iliyobaki baada ya kufunga soko. Taarifa za machaguo tunazohifadhi huonyesha biashara, si nafuma (positions), na hakuna uwanja wa open-interest mahali popote. Uwiano wowote hapa chini unalinganisha ujazo wa hisa dhidi ya historia yake ya ujazo. Ujazo wa machaguo dhidi ya open interest unaelezea kile kila kipimo kinachojibu.

Shughuli isiyo ya kawaida ya machaguo: kikao cha mwisho kilichokamilika

WITH tape AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           sum(toFloat64(volume)) AS vol
    FROM global_markets.options_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= toDateTime(today() - 45, 'America/New_York')
    GROUP BY d
),
ranked AS (
    SELECT d, vol, row_number() OVER (ORDER BY d DESC) AS raw_rn
    FROM tape
),
cal AS (
    SELECT d, vol, rn, sum(if(rn BETWEEN 2 AND 21, 1, 0)) OVER () AS baseline_sessions
    FROM (
        SELECT d, vol, row_number() OVER (ORDER BY d DESC) AS rn
        FROM ranked
        WHERE vol >= 0.75 * (SELECT quantileExact(0.5)(vol) FROM ranked WHERE raw_rn > 1)
    )
),
day_root AS (
    SELECT substring(ticker, 3, length(ticker) - 17) AS root,
           toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           sum(toFloat64(volume)) AS vol
    FROM global_markets.options_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= toDateTime(today() - 45, 'America/New_York')
    GROUP BY root, d
),
scored AS (
    SELECT r.root AS root,
           sumIf(r.vol, c.rn = 1) AS last_vol,
           avgIf(r.vol, c.rn BETWEEN 2 AND 21) AS base_vol,
           maxIf(r.vol, c.rn BETWEEN 2 AND 21) AS prior_high,
           countIf(c.rn BETWEEN 2 AND 21) AS root_sessions,
           max(c.baseline_sessions) AS baseline_session_count,
           maxIf(toYYYYMMDD(c.d), c.rn = 1) AS session_id,
           maxIf(formatDateTime(c.d, '%b %e'), c.rn = 1) AS session_label
    FROM day_root r INNER JOIN cal c ON r.d = c.d
    WHERE c.rn <= 21
      AND r.root NOT IN ('SPCX')
      AND r.root NOT IN ('KORU','SOXL','SOXS','TQQQ','SQQQ','NVDL','NVDS','NVD','TSLL','TSLQ','TSLZ','SPXL','SPXS','UPRO','SPXU','LABU','LABD','FAS','FAZ','TNA','TZA','YINN','YANG','UDOW','SDOW','BOIL','KOLD','UCO','SCO','USD','SSO','SDS','QLD','QID','ERX','ERY','DRN','DRV','CURE','SOXY','MUU','SNXX','UVXY','SVXY','UVIX','SVIX','BULZ','WEBL','WEBS','DPST','DRIP','GUSH','AGQ','ZSL','BITX','ETHU','MSTX','MSTU','CONL','DUST','JNUG','JDST','NUGT')
    GROUP BY r.root
    HAVING last_vol >= 25000 AND base_vol >= 5000 AND root_sessions >= 18
)
SELECT root AS ticker,
       round(last_vol / base_vol, 1) AS vol_ratio,
       round(last_vol / 1000, 1) AS session_volume_k,
       round(base_vol / 1000, 1) AS baseline_volume_k,
       round(prior_high / 1000, 1) AS prior_high_volume_k,
       session_label,
       session_id,
       baseline_session_count
FROM scored
ORDER BY vol_ratio DESC, ticker ASC
LIMIT 10

Safu tatu ndizo zinazotoa takwimu. Uwiano unaonyesha jinsi bidhaa inayohusika ilivyofanyiwa biashara kulingana na wastani wake. Baseline inaonyesha thamani ya kawaida, na nyongeza kubwa dhidi ya mnyororo mdogo ni tukio dogo zaidi kuliko nyongeza ndogo dhidi ya mnyororo wenye shughuli nyingi. Kilele cha session za 20 kinasema ikiwa kikao hicho kilivuka rekodi yoyote katika mwezi uliopita. Safu tatu za mwisho ni kumbukumbu ya ukaguzi: kikao ambacho chati imejengwa nacho, kilichochapishwa kama lebo na kama namba, pamoja na idadi ya vikao vinavyostahili nyuma ya baseline, ambayo lazima iwe 20 ili ukurasa utoe taarifa.

CVS kimeongoza chati kwa 7.2x wastani wake: mkataba 138.2 elfu dhidi ya baseline ya 19.3 elfu, huku kilele cha awali cha session za 20 kikiwa 59.3 elfu.

• INFY katika 4.2x: mkataba 29.5 elfu dhidi ya baseline ya 7 elfu.
• GM katika 3.6x, mkataba 67.1 elfu kwenye baseline ya 18.6 elfu.
• SMCI katika 3.6x, mkataba 737 elfu dhidi ya kilele cha session za 20 cha 361.8 elfu.
• WDAY katika 3.6x kwenye mkataba 28 elfu.

Safu ya mwisho ya chati, NUAI, bado ilifanya biashara kwa 3x wastani wake. Uwiano na ukubwa ni vipimo tofauti, ndiyo maana vyote vipo kwenye chati. Toleo la soko la hisa la wazo hili linapatikana kwenye hisa zenye kiasi kisicho cha kawaida wiki hii, na hesabu yenyewe imeelezewa kwenye relative volume.

Calls or puts: the side of the tape

The split between call and put volume is most of what an alert is really pointing at. Same board, same session, sorted by call share:

WITH tape AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           sum(toFloat64(volume)) AS vol
    FROM global_markets.options_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= toDateTime(today() - 45, 'America/New_York')
    GROUP BY d
),
ranked AS (
    SELECT d, vol, row_number() OVER (ORDER BY d DESC) AS raw_rn
    FROM tape
),
cal AS (
    SELECT d, vol, rn, sum(if(rn BETWEEN 2 AND 21, 1, 0)) OVER () AS baseline_sessions
    FROM (
        SELECT d, vol, row_number() OVER (ORDER BY d DESC) AS rn
        FROM ranked
        WHERE vol >= 0.75 * (SELECT quantileExact(0.5)(vol) FROM ranked WHERE raw_rn > 1)
    )
),
day_root AS (
    SELECT substring(ticker, 3, length(ticker) - 17) AS root,
           toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           sum(toFloat64(volume)) AS vol,
           sumIf(toFloat64(volume), substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 8, 1) = 'C') AS calls,
           sumIf(toFloat64(volume), substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 8, 1) = 'P') AS puts
    FROM global_markets.options_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= toDateTime(today() - 45, 'America/New_York')
    GROUP BY root, d
),
scored AS (
    SELECT r.root AS root,
           round(sumIf(r.vol, c.rn = 1) / avgIf(r.vol, c.rn BETWEEN 2 AND 21), 1) AS vol_ratio,
           sumIf(r.calls, c.rn = 1) AS calls,
           sumIf(r.puts, c.rn = 1) AS puts,
           maxIf(toYYYYMMDD(c.d), c.rn = 1) AS session_id
    FROM day_root r INNER JOIN cal c ON r.d = c.d
    WHERE c.rn <= 21
      AND r.root NOT IN ('SPCX')
      AND r.root NOT IN ('KORU','SOXL','SOXS','TQQQ','SQQQ','NVDL','NVDS','NVD','TSLL','TSLQ','TSLZ','SPXL','SPXS','UPRO','SPXU','LABU','LABD','FAS','FAZ','TNA','TZA','YINN','YANG','UDOW','SDOW','BOIL','KOLD','UCO','SCO','USD','SSO','SDS','QLD','QID','ERX','ERY','DRN','DRV','CURE','SOXY','MUU','SNXX','UVXY','SVXY','UVIX','SVIX','BULZ','WEBL','WEBS','DPST','DRIP','GUSH','AGQ','ZSL','BITX','ETHU','MSTX','MSTU','CONL','DUST','JNUG','JDST','NUGT')
    GROUP BY r.root
    HAVING sumIf(r.vol, c.rn = 1) >= 25000
       AND avgIf(r.vol, c.rn BETWEEN 2 AND 21) >= 5000
       AND countIf(c.rn BETWEEN 2 AND 21) >= 18
),
board AS (
    SELECT root, vol_ratio, calls, puts, session_id
    FROM scored
    ORDER BY vol_ratio DESC, root ASC
    LIMIT 10
)
SELECT root AS ticker,
       round(calls / 1000, 1) AS call_volume_k,
       round(puts / 1000, 1) AS put_volume_k,
       round(100.0 * calls / (calls + puts), 0) AS call_share_pct,
       session_id
FROM board
WHERE calls + puts > 0
ORDER BY call_share_pct DESC, ticker ASC

At the call-heavy end, CVS put 95% of its contracts into calls: 130.7 thousand calls against 7.5 thousand puts. At the other end of the same table, WDAY ran 30% calls, 8.3 thousand against 19.7 thousand puts.

That split is worth reading and easy to over-read. Every printed contract has a buyer and a seller, and the tape does not record which side initiated. Heavy call volume can be an outright long position or a covered call written against stock the seller already owns. Buying and selling call options walks through what each side of that trade takes on. Where the tape is loud, option prices usually are too, which is the subject of the highest implied volatility stocks board.

Muundo wa mikataba ya kikao hiki

WITH tape AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           sum(toFloat64(volume)) AS vol
    FROM global_markets.options_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= toDateTime(today() - 45, 'America/New_York')
    GROUP BY d
),
ranked AS (
    SELECT d, vol, row_number() OVER (ORDER BY d DESC) AS raw_rn
    FROM tape
),
cal AS (
    SELECT d, vol, rn, sum(if(rn BETWEEN 2 AND 21, 1, 0)) OVER () AS baseline_sessions
    FROM (
        SELECT d, vol, row_number() OVER (ORDER BY d DESC) AS rn
        FROM ranked
        WHERE vol >= 0.75 * (SELECT quantileExact(0.5)(vol) FROM ranked WHERE raw_rn > 1)
    )
),
bars AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           toFloat64(volume) AS v,
           toDate(concat('20', substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 2), '-',
                         substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 12, 2), '-',
                         substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 10, 2))) AS expiry
    FROM global_markets.options_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= toDateTime(today() - 12, 'America/New_York')
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) IN (SELECT d FROM cal WHERE rn = 1)
),
scored AS (
    SELECT multiIf(expiry - d <= 0, 1, expiry - d <= 7, 2, expiry - d <= 30, 3,
                   expiry - d <= 90, 4, expiry - d <= 365, 5, 6) AS bk,
           v, d
    FROM bars
)
SELECT arrayElement(['same day', '1 to 7 days', '8 to 30 days', '31 to 90 days', '91 to 365 days', 'over a year'], bk) AS dte_bucket,
       round(sum(v) / 1e6, 2) AS contracts_m,
       round(100.0 * sum(v) / sum(sum(v)) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_volume,
       toYYYYMMDD(max(d)) AS session_id
FROM scored
GROUP BY bk
ORDER BY bk ASC

Mikataba inayofika mwisho siku hiyo ilichukua 36.3% ya jumla ya kikao, ikiwa na jumla ya 20.1 milioni ya mikataba. 27.1% nyingine ilifika mwisho ndani ya wiki moja. Kwa upande wa mwisho, mikataba yenye zaidi ya mwaka imebaki ilichukua 1.2%.

Mchanganyiko huo unabadilisha namna ya kusoma kichwa cha habari kuhusu shughuli zisizo za kawaida. Idadi kubwa ya miamala kwenye bodi kama hii ni ya muda mfupi, na mkataba wa siku hiyo unamalizika wakati wa kufunga soko badala ya kuendelezwa. Dide-to-expiry (0DTE) options inajumuisha upande huo wa mnyororo.

Je, hii ilikuwa session ya expiration?

Volume ya options huongezeka katika soko zima wakati wa monthly expiration, ambapo kundi kubwa zaidi la mikataba iliyosajiliwa huondoka kwa wakati mmoja. Skrini ya ratio inayotumika siku ya expiration huashiria nusu ya soko, hivyo panel hii hupambanisha kila session katika kipindi hicho.

WITH tape AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           sum(toFloat64(volume)) AS vol
    FROM global_markets.options_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= toDateTime(today() - 45, 'America/New_York')
    GROUP BY d
),
ranked AS (
    SELECT d, vol, row_number() OVER (ORDER BY d DESC) AS raw_rn
    FROM tape
),
cal AS (
    SELECT d, vol, rn, sum(if(rn BETWEEN 2 AND 21, 1, 0)) OVER () AS baseline_sessions
    FROM (
        SELECT d, vol, row_number() OVER (ORDER BY d DESC) AS rn
        FROM ranked
        WHERE vol >= 0.75 * (SELECT quantileExact(0.5)(vol) FROM ranked WHERE raw_rn > 1)
    )
),
w AS (
    SELECT d, vol,
           toStartOfMonth(d) + toIntervalDay(((5 - toDayOfWeek(toStartOfMonth(d)) + 7) % 7) + 14) AS third_friday
    FROM cal
    WHERE rn <= 25
),
marked AS (
    SELECT d, vol,
           (d = max(if(d <= third_friday, d, toDate('1970-01-01'))) OVER (PARTITION BY toStartOfMonth(d)))
             AND (third_friday <= max(d) OVER ()) AS is_expiry
    FROM w
),
latest AS (
    SELECT d, vol, is_expiry,
           max(if(is_expiry, d, toDate('1970-01-01'))) OVER () AS last_expiry_d
    FROM marked
)
SELECT formatDateTime(d, '%b %e') AS session,
       round(vol / 1e6, 1) AS contracts_m,
       multiIf(is_expiry, 'monthly expiration', 'ordinary') AS session_type,
       round(max(if(d = last_expiry_d, vol, 0)) OVER () / 1e6, 1) AS monthly_expiry_m,
       toYYYYMMDD(d) AS session_id
FROM latest
ORDER BY d ASC

Session mpya zaidi katika panel hii ni ile inayoripotiwa na board, tarehe sawa katika majedwali yote, na lebo yake ni ordinary. Ilitoa 55.4 milioni za mikataba katika soko zima la US. Monthly expiration ya hivi karibuni ndani ya kipindi hicho ilitoa 76.8 milioni. Baseline ya session ishirini nyuma ya kila ratio kwenye board kwa kawaida huwa na monthly expiration moja tu, hivyo denominator hubeba kiasi hicho hicho kutoka session hadi session.

Je, mienendo isiyo ya kawaida ya options huongoza hisa?

Swali la kulinganisha ni kama kipindi chenye mienendo mikubwa ya options hufuatiwa na mabadiliko makubwa kwenye hisa husika. Kwa kutumia vipimo vya siku 200 zilizopita: kila kipindi cha hisa kilichovuka viwango vya juu vya kiasi cha biashara (volume), vilivyopangwa kwa uwiano wake, vililinganishwa na mabadiliko ya thamani ya kufunga ya hisa hiyo katika kipindi kinachofuata. Safu ya kawaida ni mabadiliko ya wastani wa kila hisa kila siku katika kipindi hicho, hivyo kila kundi linalinganishwa na nafsi yake.

WITH daily AS (
    SELECT underlying_symbol AS sym,
           date AS d,
           sum(volume) AS vol,
           max(underlying_close) AS px
    FROM global_markets.options_greeks
    WHERE date >= today() - 200
      AND underlying_close > 0
      AND underlying_symbol NOT IN ('SPCX')
      AND underlying_symbol NOT IN ('KORU','SOXL','SOXS','TQQQ','SQQQ','NVDL','NVDS','NVD','TSLL','TSLQ','TSLZ','SPXL','SPXS','UPRO','SPXU','LABU','LABD','FAS','FAZ','TNA','TZA','YINN','YANG','UDOW','SDOW','BOIL','KOLD','UCO','SCO','USD','SSO','SDS','QLD','QID','ERX','ERY','DRN','DRV','CURE','SOXY','MUU','SNXX','UVXY','SVXY','UVIX','SVIX','BULZ','WEBL','WEBS','DPST','DRIP','GUSH','AGQ','ZSL','BITX','ETHU','MSTX','MSTU','CONL','DUST','JNUG','JDST','NUGT')
      AND underlying_symbol NOT IN (SELECT ticker FROM global_markets.stocks_splits
                                    WHERE execution_date BETWEEN today() - 230 AND today())
    GROUP BY sym, d
),
seq AS (
    SELECT sym, d, vol, px,
           avg(vol) OVER (PARTITION BY sym ORDER BY d ROWS BETWEEN 20 PRECEDING AND 1 PRECEDING) AS base,
           count() OVER (PARTITION BY sym ORDER BY d ROWS BETWEEN 20 PRECEDING AND 1 PRECEDING) AS base_n,
           any(px) OVER (PARTITION BY sym ORDER BY d ROWS BETWEEN 1 FOLLOWING AND 1 FOLLOWING) AS next_px,
           any(px) OVER (PARTITION BY sym ORDER BY d ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND 1 PRECEDING) AS prev_px
    FROM daily
),
moves AS (
    SELECT sym, vol, base, base_n,
           if(next_px > 0, 100 * abs(next_px / px - 1), -1) AS next_abs,
           if(next_px > 0, 100 * (next_px / px - 1), -999) AS next_signed,
           if(prev_px > 0, 100 * abs(px / prev_px - 1), -1) AS own_abs
    FROM seq
),
typical AS (
    SELECT sym, quantileExact(0.5)(own_abs) AS typ
    FROM moves
    WHERE own_abs >= 0
    GROUP BY sym
)
SELECT arrayElement(['5x or more', '3x to 5x', '2x to 3x', '1x to 2x', 'below 1x'], bk) AS rvol_bucket,
       count() AS event_count,
       round(quantileExact(0.5)(next_abs), 2) AS median_next_move_pct,
       round(quantileExact(0.5)(typ), 2) AS median_typical_move_pct,
       round(quantileExact(0.5)(next_abs) - quantileExact(0.5)(typ), 2) AS gap_pp,
       round(quantileExact(0.5)(next_signed), 2) AS median_next_signed_pct
FROM (
    SELECT m.sym AS sym,
           multiIf(m.vol / m.base >= 5, 1, m.vol / m.base >= 3, 2, m.vol / m.base >= 2, 3,
                   m.vol / m.base >= 1, 4, 5) AS bk,
           m.next_abs AS next_abs,
           m.next_signed AS next_signed,
           t.typ AS typ
    FROM moves m INNER JOIN typical t ON m.sym = t.sym
    WHERE m.base_n = 20 AND m.base >= 5000 AND m.vol >= 25000 AND m.next_abs >= 0
)
GROUP BY bk
ORDER BY bk ASC

Kufuatia kipindi chenye kiasi cha biashara mara tano au zaidi ya kiwango chake cha kawaida, mabadiliko ya wastani ya thamani katika kipindi kinachofuata yalikuwa 2.52%, dhidi ya 1.92% kwa hisa hizo hizo katika siku ya kawaida, tofauti ya 0.6 percentage points. Katika upande wa mienendo tulivu, safu zote mbili zilikuwa 1.87% na 2.09%, tofauti ya -0.22 points.

Jibu la kweli ni dogo, na linahusu ukubwa wa mabadiliko badala ya mwelekeo. Vipindi vyenye mienendo mikubwa ya options hufuatiwa na mabadiliko makubwa zaidi kidogo katika thamani ya jumla, na tofauti ya wastani ni sehemu ndogo ya percentage point. Mabadiliko ya wastani ya thamani (signed change) katika kipindi baada ya siku ya mara tano yalikuwa -0.34%, na baada ya siku ya chini ya kiwango cha kawaida yalikuwa -0.05%. Hakuna mabadiliko yanayolingana na kile ambacho kichwa cha habari kinadokeza. Upatikanaji wa mienendo hiyo pia ni muhimu kuzingatia: 652 vipindi vya hisa vilivuka mara tano kiwango chake cha kawaida katika kipindi cha utafiti, dhidi ya 11781 vilivyofanya biashara chini ya kiwango hicho.

Jinsi skrini hii inavyopimwa

Skrini yenye kanuni zilizofichwa husoma kama data lakini kimsingi ni maoni, hivyo kila kanuni imewekwa hapa.

1. Chanzo. Tape kamili ya dakika ya options za US. Underlying inatenganishwa kutoka kwenye alama ya OCC ya kila mkataba, hivyo mizizi ya index option na expiration za siku hiyo zote zinajumuishwa pamoja na mnyororo wa hisa na mifuko ya kawaida.
2. Ratio. Jumla ya idadi ya mikataba (total contract volume) ya kikao kilichokamilika hivi karibuni iliyogawanywa kwa wastani wa underlying hiyo hiyo katika vikao 20 vilivyostahili vilivyotangulia. Angalau 18 kati ya vikao hivyo 20 lazima viwe na volume. Jedwali huonyesha urefu wa dirisha (window length) katika safu yake binafsi, na dirisha linalofikia chini ya vikao 20 huacha ukurasa huo badala ya kuchapisha wastani mfupi chini ya lebo ya vikao 20.
3. Floors. Mikataba 25,000 katika kikao na msingi wa mikataba 5,000. Bila hizo, jedwali litajaa mnyororo ambapo oda moja inaweza kuwa na thamani ya mara kumi zaidi ya wastani.
4. Uhalali wa kikao. Kila jalada kwenye ukurasa huu husoma vikao vyake kutoka dirisha moja la siku 45 la tape hiyo hiyo, chini ya kanuni moja: kikao huhesabiwa mara tu volume ya soko kote inapofikia 75% ya wastani (median) wa vikao vya zamani katika dirisha hilo. Siku mpya zaidi huachwa nje ya wastani unaopaswa kuufikia, ili siku inayochukua data kwa sehemu isizuie wastani wake mwenyewe. Tape hufika mbele kwa vipande, na siku inayobeba chini ya robo tatu ya kikao cha kawaida hubaki nje ya jedwali hadi itakapojawa. Kila jalada huchapisha kikao kilichofikia, hivyo jalada zote nne zinaweza kusomwa kwa kulinganisha.
5. Vituo vya kutengwa. Mifuko ya leveraged na inverse huondolewa kwa jina: mnyororo wa bidhaa ya 3x huenda na multiplier yake na ungejaa orodha kila wiki. Alama ya ticker inayotumiwa mara mbili pia hutengwa, kwa sababu historia ya mtoa huduma inaunganisha kampuni mbili chini yake.
6. Hakuna open interest. Hakuna uwanja wa open-interest kwenye ghala la data, hivyo hakuna kitu kwenye ukurasa huu kinacholinganisha volume dhidi ya nafasi zilizopo (outstanding positions). Pale skrini ya mshindani inaposema volume imeshinda open interest, yetu husema volume imeshinda wastani wake wa vikao 20.
7. Siku za expiration. Expiration ya kila mwezi huongeza volume ya options kote sokoni. Jalada la kikao huonyesha hali hiyo, na jedwali lililoundwa kwenye kikao cha expiration linapaswa kusomwa dhidi ya vikao vingine vya expiration.

Uchunguzi wa matokeo (follow-through study) hutumia jedwali la pili, faili la daily options greeks, ambalo hubeba alama safi ya underlying na bei ya kufunga ya underlying hiyo. Huondoa expiration za siku hiyo hiyo na index options, na hukamilisha vikao vichache baada ya tape ya dakika, hivyo ulimwengu wake ni mdogo kuliko wa jedwali. Majina yenye stock split ndani ya dirisha la uchunguzi huondolewa, kwa sababu split hutoa mwendo wa bandia mkubwa.

Maswali ya Mara kwa Mara

Unusual options activity ni nini?

Ni hali ambapo hisa inayohusika inafanya biashara ya mikataba ya options nyingi zaidi katika kikao kimoja kuliko wastani wake wa hivi karibuni. Katika ukurasa huu, kiwango cha utambuzi ni wa kimahesabu badala ya kimaoni: ujumla wa mikataba ya kikao hicho iliyogawanywa kwa wastani wa mikataba ya hisa hiyo hiyo katika vikao 20 vilivyotangulia, huku kukiwa na kiwango cha chini cha mikataba 25,000 katika kikao na 5,000 katika mstari wa msingi.

Je, unusual options activity hutabiri mienendo ya hisa?

Inatabiri kwa kiwango kidogo, na bila kuonyesha mwelekeo. Katika siku 200 za mwisho za data zetu, vikao vilivyofikia mara tano ya mstari wa msingi wa volume ya options ya hisa husika vilifuatiwa na mabadiliko ya wastani ya 2.52%, dhidi ya 1.92% kwa hisa hizo hizo katika siku ya kawaida. Mabadiliko ya wastani ya ishara katika kikao kinachofuata yalikuwa -0.34%, hivyo volume ilitoa taarifa kuhusu umbali ambao hisa ilihama na taarifa kidogo kuhusu mwelekeo wa mabadiliko hayo.

Data ya options volume huwastishwa lini?

Volume ya mikataba huonekana papo hapo kwenye consolidated options tape wakati kikao kinapoendelea. Tape iliyohifadhiwa nyuma ya ukurasa huu huwekwa sawa kwa kuchelewa, hivyo ubao unaonyesha kikao kilichokamilika hivi karibuni badala ya kikao kinachoendelea, na huweka tarehe yake. Hakuna kitu hapa ambacho ni feed ya wakati halisi (real-time).

Kwa nini skana hii ya unusual options activity haitumii open interest?

Open interest huchapishwa na clearinghouse baada ya kufunga soko, na hakuna uwanja wa open-interest katika data tunazoshikilia. Kulinganisha volume ya kikao dhidi ya historia ya volume ya hisa hiyo hiyo inaweza kupimwa moja kwa moja kutoka kwenye tape, na inajibu swali linalofanana: je, mfululizo huu wa mikataba una kazi nyingi kuliko kawaida.

Kila namba iliyo juu ni query iliyohifadhiwa na yenye toleo maalum. Fungua SQL chini ya paneli yoyote ili kukagua kipimo, au run skrini hiyo hiyo katika kipindi chochote unachotaka kwenye terminal ya Strasmore.