Strasmore Research
Uchunguzi wa kina Matt ConnorNa Matt Connor · Imeboreshwa 2026-07-25

ajali ya COVID 2020 mara nne kusitishwa kilele hadi bonde

Ajali ya COVID ya 2020 ilisimamisha biashara mara nne kwa siku nane. Ramani ya kilele hadi bonde kwenye SPY na kikao cha Machi 9 dakika kwa dakika. Pia Treasury na options.

Kuvunjika kwa soko la hisa kwa sababu ya COVID mwaka 2020 kulipeleka S&P 500 kutoka kwenye kufungwa kwa kiwango cha rekodi Februari 19 hadi kwenye hasara ya -34.2% kutoka kilele hadi bonde ndani ya siku 23 za biashara. Mfumo wa kusitisha biashara wa soko lote ulisimamisha biashara mara nne kando ya njia. Hii ilikuwa mara ya kwanza tangu 1997.

Ukurasa huu unarudia mzunguko wote kutoka kwenye ukanda wa biashara. Unatoa ramani ya kuvunjika kwa soko. Unafafanua kikao cha kusitisha biashara cha Machi 9 dakika kwa dakika. Hii inajumuisha dakika ambazo hazipo kwenye data, ambazo ni ushahidi bora zaidi kwenye ukurasa. Ona pia hisa zilizopita kushuka sana. Pia ona Treasury na ukanda wa options zilifanya nini wakati huohuo.

Kila namba ni swali lililohifadhiwa. Fungua paneli yoyote kuona SQL.

Ajali yote, katika safu moja

Kabla ya siku moja maarufu, kuna ramani. Uhoji mmoja juu ya bei za kufungwa za kila siku za SPY unaainisha kilele, bonde, kasi, na kurejea — pamoja na kipimo kile kile kilichofanywa kwenye soko dhubuli la 2008 kwa ajili ya linganishi.

UlizaKuvuruga kwa COVID, kilele hadi bonde hadi kurejea — SPY funguo za kila siku, safu moja
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH dailies AS (
    SELECT
        toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
        argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS c
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2020-02-01 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2020-09-01 00:00:00')
    GROUP BY d
),
peak AS (SELECT argMax(d, (c, -toInt32(d))) AS pd, max(c) AS pc FROM dailies WHERE d < toDate('2020-03-01')),
trough AS (SELECT argMin(d, (c, toInt32(d))) AS td, min(c) AS tc FROM dailies WHERE d < toDate('2020-04-01')),
gfc AS (
    SELECT
        toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
        argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS c
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2007-06-01 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2009-01-01 00:00:00')
    GROUP BY d
),
gpeak AS (SELECT argMax(d, (c, -toInt32(d))) AS pd, max(c) AS pc FROM gfc WHERE d < toDate('2008-01-01'))
SELECT
    toString((SELECT pd FROM peak)) AS peak_date,
    round((SELECT pc FROM peak), 2) AS peak_close,
    toString((SELECT td FROM trough)) AS trough_date,
    round((SELECT tc FROM trough), 2) AS trough_close,
    round(((SELECT tc FROM trough) / (SELECT pc FROM peak) - 1) * 100, 1) AS decline_pct,
    countIf(d > (SELECT pd FROM peak) AND d <= (SELECT td FROM trough)) AS sessions_peak_to_trough,
    dateDiff('day', (SELECT pd FROM peak), (SELECT td FROM trough)) AS calendar_days,
    countIf(d > (SELECT pd FROM peak) AND d <= (SELECT min(d) FROM dailies WHERE c <= 0.7 * (SELECT pc FROM peak))) AS sessions_to_minus_30,
    (SELECT countIf(d > (SELECT pd FROM gpeak) AND d <= (SELECT min(d) FROM gfc WHERE c <= 0.7 * (SELECT pc FROM gpeak))) FROM gfc) AS gfc_2008_sessions_to_minus_30,
    toString((SELECT min(d) FROM dailies WHERE d > (SELECT td FROM trough) AND c >= (SELECT pc FROM peak))) AS recovery_date,
    countIf(d > (SELECT td FROM trough) AND d <= (SELECT min(d) FROM dailies WHERE d > (SELECT td FROM trough) AND c >= (SELECT pc FROM peak))) AS sessions_trough_to_recovery
FROM dailies

Bei ya kufungwa ya juu ya SPY ilikuwa $338.31 tarehe 2020-02-19. Bei ya kufungwa ya chini, $222.51 tarehe 2020-03-23, iko -34.2% chini yake — soko dhubuli lililofinyangwa katika vikao 23 vya biashara, siku 33 za kalenda. Kauli inayotajwa mara kwa mara ya "kupungua kwa thelathini asilimia kwa kasi zaidi kwenye kumbukumbu" inathibitishwa katika safu hiyo hiyo: bei ya kufungwa ya SPY ilivuka kwanza thelathini asilimia chini ya kilele baada ya vikao 22 tu. Soko dhubuli la 2008, likipimwa kwa njia ile ile kutoka kwenye bei yake ya kufungwa ya kilele ya Oktoba 2007, lilihitaji vikao 250 kupotea thelathini asilimia hiyo hiyo. Kilichochukua takriban mwaka mmoja mwaka 2008 kilichukua takriban mwezi mmoja mwaka 2020.

Muundo wa tarehe za ajali hiyo, kila nambaikitokea kwenye paneli za ukurasa huu:

  • Februari 19, 2020 — bei ya kufungwa ya rekodi ya SPY, $338.31.
  • Machi 9 — kikomo cha kwanza cha soko nzima tangu 1997; SPY inafungwa ikiwa imepungua -7.7%. Inathibitishwa dakika kwa dakika hapa chini.
  • Machi 12, 16, na 18 — kusimamishwa tatu zaidi za Level-1. Machi 16 inafungwa ikiwa -11.6%, kikao kibaya zaidi cha ajali hiyo.
  • Machi 23 — chini ya kufungwa: $222.51, -34.2% kutoka kwenye kilele.
  • Machi 24 — mgeuko. Kupanda kwa msukumo wa Machi 24 kunabeba rekodi hiyo.
  • 2020-08-18 — SPY inafungwa juu ya kilele cha Februari tena, baada ya vikao 103 tangu chini.

Machi 9, 2020: kikao kilichosha kifungio cha dharura

Vifungio vya dharura vya soko zima vinategemea S&P 500, hivyo paneli hii inasoma kusimamishwa kwa biashara kupitia SPY — ETF ya S&P 500 — badala ya kigezo kingine chochote. Katika wikendi iliyotangulia, marekebisho ya bei yaliyotokana na janga yaligongana na mshtuko wa ugawanyaji wa mafuta (maelezo zaidi hapa chini), na soko halikufunguliwa kwa njia iliyo pangiliwa kamwe.

UlizaSPY Machi 9, 2020 — kikao cha circuit-breaker, kimepokelewa
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH
    (
        SELECT argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2020-03-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2020-03-09 04:00:00')
    ) AS prior_rth_close,
    (
        SELECT (formatDateTime(toTimeZone(addMinutes(prev_bar, 1), 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i'), gap_minutes - 1)
        FROM (
            SELECT
                lagInFrame(window_start) OVER (ORDER BY window_start ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_bar,
                dateDiff('minute', prev_bar, window_start) AS gap_minutes
            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
            WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
              AND window_start >= toDateTime('2020-03-09 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2020-03-09 23:59:00')
              AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
        )
        WHERE prev_bar > toDateTime('2020-03-09 00:00:00')
        ORDER BY gap_minutes DESC
        LIMIT 1
    ) AS halt_gap
SELECT
    round(prior_rth_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(toFloat64(argMinIf(open, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)), 2) AS rth_open,
    round((toFloat64(argMinIf(open, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)) / prior_rth_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS gap_pct,
    halt_gap.1 AS halt_first_missing_et,
    halt_gap.2 AS halt_missing_minutes,
    round(minIf(toFloat64(low), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 2) AS rth_low,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(argMinIf(window_start, (toFloat64(low), toInt64(toUnixTimestamp(window_start))), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS low_et,
    round(toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)), 2) AS rth_close,
    round((toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)) / prior_rth_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS day_change_pct,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS day_shares_m,
    countIf((toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS rth_minute_bars
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2020-03-09 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2020-03-09 23:59:00')

Nambari mbili mbele. Kwanza, pengo: SPY ilifunguliwa kiwango cha $275.3, -7.4% chini ya kufungwa kwa Ijumaa ya $297.42 — na ndani ya dakika za kwanza kupunguka kwa S&P 500 kufikia kizingiti cha asilimia saba cha Kiwango cha Kwanza. Pili, na bora zaidi: 376 futa za dakika za kikao cha kawaida badala ya 390 za kawaida. Mfuatilio wa soko unaacha baada ya saa 9:34 asubuhi: kuanzia saa 09:35 ET, 14 dakika mfululizo hazichapishi futa hata moja. Hakuna biashara iliyofanyika popote. Pengo katika data ni kifungio cha dharura. Kikao kilifungwa kiwango cha $274.4, kilipungua kwa -7.7%, kwa hisa milioni 304.6.

Maumbo ya kikao kilichosimamishwa

UlizaSPY kwa nusu saa — kikao cha kawaida cha Machi 9, 2020
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    formatDateTime(toStartOfInterval(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'), INTERVAL 30 MINUTE), '%H:%i') AS et_time,
    round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2) AS bucket_close,
    round(min(toFloat64(low)), 2) AS bucket_low,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2020-03-09 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2020-03-09 23:59:00')
  AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
GROUP BY et_time
ORDER BY et_time

Kikapo cha ufunguzi kinabeba ajali, kusimamishwa, na kuanzisha upya kwa pamoja: chini yake ya $273.5 iko karibu na senti na chini ya siku nzima ya $273.45 — chapisho la mchana saa 14:44 ET kilijaribu tu kiwango cha asubuhi tena. Baada ya kufungua upya, mwelekeo wa biashara haukwenda popote: kila fungu la nusu saa lilifungwa ndani ya dola chache kutoka bei ya kufungua upya, na uharibifu wa siku ulikamilika katika dakika za kwanza za muda halisi. Kiasi cha biashara kiliambia hadithi hiyo hiyo kwa njia ya pili — nusu saa ya mwisho, kwa hisa 46.7 milioni, ilikuwa kikapo kizito zaidi cha siku wakati mtiririko wa kufunga ulipopita. Vizuizi vya mzunguko vimeundwa kutoa maumbo haya hasa: zuia mtiririko wa kushuka kwa kasi, lazimisha mnada wa kufungua upya, na ruhusu biashara endelevu ianze tena kwa kiwango kilichopitiwa na bei. Saa ya soko ina mtambo huu kabisa ndani yake sasa.

Sitamisho nne katika vikao nane

Tarehe 9 Machi ilikuwa ya kwanza tu.

UlizaVikao vinne vya circuit-breaker vya Machi 2020 — SPY kufunga, mabadiliko, kiasi
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    toString(et_date) AS session,
    close_usd,
    change_pct,
    shares_m
FROM (
    SELECT et_date, close_usd, shares_m,
           round((close_usd / lagInFrame(close_usd) OVER (ORDER BY et_date ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) - 1) * 100, 1) AS change_pct
    FROM (
        SELECT
            toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
            round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 2) AS close_usd,
            round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2020-03-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2020-03-19 00:00:00')
        GROUP BY et_date
    )
)
WHERE toString(et_date) IN ('2020-03-09', '2020-03-12', '2020-03-16', '2020-03-18')
ORDER BY et_date

Vikatazi cha Level-1 pia vilianzishwa tarehe 12 Machi (kilifungwa -9.6%), tarehe 16 Machi (kilifungwa -11.6% kwa $239.41 — kuporomoka kwa S&P 500 kwa asilimia kwa siku moja kubwa zaidi tangu 1987), na tarehe 18 Machi (kukatizwa wakati wa siku, kilifungwa -5.2%). Sitamisho nne kwa soko zima katika siku nane za biashara, baada ya miaka ishirini na tatu bila hata moja. Angalia kilichotokutokea kamwe: kila kikatizo kilikuwa cha Level 1, ya kiwango cha saba asilimia. Vipimo vya asilimia kumi na tatu na asilimia ishirini havikufikiwa kamwe — hata tarehe 16 Machi, mlipuko ulipungua baada ya kikatizo na kikao kilihitisha ndani ya mstari wa Level-2.

Nani alianguka zaidi

Namba ya faharasa huficha mtawanyiko uliopo chini yake. Hesabu hiyo hiyo ya kufunga kila siku, inapotezwa kwenye chache ya makampuni makubwa yanayowakilisha, inaonyesha ambapo kuanguka kuliathiri kwa kweli — siku ya Machi 9 yenywe na katika kuteleza kamili kuanzia Februari 19 hadi Machi 23.

UlizaMabadiliko ya Machi 9 na kuvuruga kikamilifu — cruise, airline, energy, bank, tech, staples dhidi ya SPY
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH dailies AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
        argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS c
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('UAL', 'CCL', 'XOM', 'JPM', 'AAPL', 'WMT', 'SPY')
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2020-02-18 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2020-03-25 00:00:00')
    GROUP BY ticker, d
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round((anyIf(c, d = toDate('2020-03-09')) / anyIf(c, d = toDate('2020-03-06')) - 1) * 100, 1) AS mar9_pct,
    round((anyIf(c, d = toDate('2020-03-23')) / anyIf(c, d = toDate('2020-02-19')) - 1) * 100, 1) AS crash_pct
FROM dailies
GROUP BY ticker
ORDER BY crash_pct ASC

Jina lililoathiriwa zaidi kwenye kikundi, CCL (Carnival, kampuni ya meli za kusafiri), lilipoteza -19.9% kwenye Machi 9 pekee na -72.3% kutoka kilele hadi bonde. United Airlines ilipoteza -66.9% wakati wa kuanguka; ExxonMobil -47.9%; JPMorgan -42.6%. Kulinganisha nayo, -34.2% ya SPY inaonekana karibu kuwa laini, Apple ilianguka takriban sawa na soko kwa -31%, na Walmart — bidhaa za msingi, vitu muhimu, wazi wakati wa kufungwa — ilimaliza dirisha hilohilo kwa -2.9% tu. Safari na nishati zilipitiwa bei upya kwa ulimwengu uliosimama; bidhaa za msingi hazikusogea.

Vita vya bei ya mafuta, kwa ufupi

Mzozo wa nishati hapo juu unastahili maelezo yake ya aya moja, kwani "vita vya bei ya mafuta" hubeba nusu nyingine ya hadithi ya Machi tisa. Mazungumzo ya uzalishaji ya OPEC+ kati ya Saudi Arabia na Russia yalikamilika bila makubaliano Ijumaa, Machi sita, 2020. Katikati ya wikiendi, Saudi Arabia ilipunguza bei zake rasmi za uuzaji na kutangaza mpango wa kuongeza uzalishaji katika dunia ambapo mahitaji ya usafiri yalikuwa tayari yakifungwa — mshtuko wa ugavi uliojengwa juu ya mshtuko wa mahitaji. Ufunguzi wa soko la hisa Jumatatu ulibeba vyote viwili mara moja, na ushahidi upo kwenye paneli hapo juu: ExxonMobil ilianguka -12.2% Jumatatu hiyo dhidi ya -7.7% ya SPY.

Kukimbia kuelekea usalama — na wiki ilipovunjika

Hisa zilikuwa nusu ya hadithi tu. Nusu nyingine ilikuwa soko la Treasury, ambapo kukimbia kawaida kuelekea usalama kulisafiri hadi kufikia kiwango cha rekodi — kisha, kwa wiki moja ya ajabu, kulisafiri kinyume.

UlizaYield za Treasury za miaka 10 na miezi 3 kupitia kuvuruga, funguo za kila siku
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    toString(date) AS date,
    round(yield_10_year, 2) AS ten_year_pct,
    round(yield_3_month, 2) AS three_month_pct
FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
WHERE date >= '2020-02-18' AND date <= '2020-03-31'
  AND isNotNull(yield_10_year)
ORDER BY date

Yield ya miaka kumi ilisimama kwa 1.56% tarehe Februari 19, wakati hisa zilifikia kilele. Kufikia Machi 9 — kikao kilichosimamishwa — ilifungwa kwa 0.54%, kiwango cha chini kabisa cha wakati wote, wananunua wakikubali nusu asilimia kwa mwaka kwa muda wa muongo mmoja kwa mahusiano ya usalama. Kisha muundo ulibadilika: hadi Machi 18 yield ya miaka kumi iliongezeka hadi 1.18% huku hisa zikiendelea kushuka — "mbio za kupata fedha taslimu," wiki ambayo hazina, makampuni, na wamiliki wa nje waliuza chochote kilichokuwa kioevu, Treasury zikiwemo, ili kupata dola. Wakati huohuo Treasury bill ya miezi mitatu ilifungwa siku hiyo kwa 0.02% — sawa na fedha taslimu zilizofungwa kwenye sufuri. Wakati hazima salama zaidi na hazima yenye hatari zaidi zinaposhuka pamoja, kitu kinachonunuliwa ni uwezo wa kubadilisha kuwa fedha taslimu. Mkunjo wa yield hubeba tukio hili moja kwa moja katika historia yake.

Kile ambao kanda ya chaguo inaonyesha

Chaguo zilizoorodheshwa za SPY — soko kuu la kujikinga dhidi ya hatari — ziliacha ushahidi wao wa hofu, na muda wake ndio sehemu ya kuvutia.

UlizaChaguo za SPY: puts dhidi ya calls zilizouzwa, Machi 2–13, 2020 (milioni ya mikataba)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    toString(toDate(toTimeZone(sip_timestamp, 'America/New_York'))) AS session,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(size), substring(ticker, 12, 1) = 'P') / 1e6, 2) AS put_contracts_m,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(size), substring(ticker, 12, 1) = 'C') / 1e6, 2) AS call_contracts_m,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(size), substring(ticker, 12, 1) = 'P') / sumIf(toFloat64(size), substring(ticker, 12, 1) = 'C'), 2) AS put_call_ratio
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE ticker >= 'O:SPY2' AND ticker < 'O:SPY3'
  AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime('2020-03-02 00:00:00') AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime('2020-03-14 00:00:00')
GROUP BY session
ORDER BY session

Uwiano wa kiwango cha put/call ulifikia kilele cha 1.95 — karibu put mbili zilizouzwa kwa kila call moja — Ijumaa, Machi 6, kabla ya kikao cha kusitisha. Machi 9 yenyewe, put milioni 4.35 ziliuzwa dhidi ya call milioni 2.38, uwiano wa 1.83. Hadi Machi 12 — kikao cha -9.6% — uwiano ulikuwa umepungua hadi 1.32 kadri kiwango cha call kilipoongezeka pamoja na put. Mgao mkubwa zaidi wa put ulitokea mwanzoni mwa mteremko, si chini yake: ulinzi ulinunuliwa mapema, na siku za baadaye zenye kushuka kwa kiasi kikubwa ziliuzwa kwenye kanda ya chaguo iliyokuwa na pande zote mbili zaidi.

Jinsi kituo cha biashara cha soko zote kinavyofanya kazi

Mfumo wake, kwa kuwa hufanya kazi mara chache sana hata kusahauliwa kati ya matumizi: vizuizi vya soko zote vinategemea kushuka kwa S&P 500 kutoka kwenye bei ya kufungwa ya siku iliyopita — 7% (Level 1) na 13% (Level 2) kila moja huanzisha kituo cha dakika kumi na tano kama kinapatikana kabla ya saa tatu na dakika ishirini na tano mchana ET; 20% (Level 3) hufunga kikao kabisa. Wakati wa kituo hakuna biashara inayofanyika katika soko lolote; maagizo yanawekwa kwenye foleni kwa mnada wa kufungua tena, ambao unakusanya maslahi yote yaliyokusanywa katika bei moja kama jinsi mnada wa kufungua unavyofanya kila asubuhi. Muundo huu ulianza kutumika baada ya anguko la ghafla la mwaka 2010, ambalo lilibainisha kwamba viwango vya zamani vilikuwa vya upana mkubwa sana hata visiweze kuanzishwa hata wakati wa kushuka kwa kweli.

Machi 2020 ilikuwa jaribio la kwanza la moja kwa moja la muundo huo — na hadi sasa ndilo pekee — na hukumu ipo kwenye paneli hapo juu: vituo vinne vya Level 1, kila moja kikifuatiwa na kufungua tena kwa mpangilio, Level 2 au Level 3 hakuna hata moja iliyofikiwa, na soko lililofanya kazi katika kila moja ya vipindi 23 vya kushuka kwa haraka zaidi kwa kiasi kikubwa katika historia ya faharasa. Sheria ziliachwa zikisimama baadaye: viwango sawa vya 7/13/20, vinavyorejelea S&P 500, bado vinatekelezwa leo. Mfumo ulijikunja; miundo ya ndani ilishikilia.

Maswali yanayojirudia kuhusu kuanguka kwa soko kutokana na COVID

Nini kilichoanzisha kikataza mzunguko tarehe 9 Machi 2020?

Kushuka kwa S&P 500 kwa asilimia saba kutoka kwenye bei ya kufunga ya awali — kikomo cha Level-1 cha soko zima — ndani ya dakika za kwanza baada ya kufungua. Biashara ilisimamishwa kwa dakika 15 kwa soko zima, kisha ilifunguliwa tena kupitia ununuzi. Kusimamishwa huku kunaonekana kwenye rekodi ya dakika ya ukurasa huu kama 14 baa zinazokosekana mfululizo zikianzia saa 09:35 ET.

Soko la hisa lilianguka kwa kiasi gani katika anguko la COVID?

Kikipimwa kwenye bei za kufunga za SPY za kila siku, -34.2% — kutoka dola 338.31 tarehe 19 Februari 2020 hadi dola 222.51 tarehe 23 Machi 2020, katika kipindi cha 23 siku za biashara.

Vikataza mzunguko vingapi viliathiriwa Machi 2020?

Vikataza vya Level-1 vinne kwa soko zima: 9, 12, 16, na 18 Machi. Hivi vlikuwa vya kwanza tangu Oktoba 1997.

Je, vikataza mzunguko vya Level 2 au Level 3 viliwahi kuathiriwa mwaka 2020?

Hapana. Kusimamishwa kote kwa nne kwa mwaka 2020 kulikuwa Level 1 (asilimia saba). Hakuna kusimamishwa kwa Level-2 (asilimia kumi na tatu) au Level-3 (asilimia ishirini) kwa soko zima kilichowahi kutekelezwa chini ya muundo wa sasa — hata sio tarehe 16 Machi, ambayo ilikuwa siku mbaya zaidi ya anguko hilo kwa -11.6%.

Je, soko lijari kikamilifu kutoka kwenye anguko la COVID?

Ndio. SPY ilifunga juu ya kilele chake cha tarehe 19 Februari 2020 tarehe 2020-08-18 — wiki 103 baada ya chini ya 23 Machi, mojawapo ya kurudisha kamili ya haraka zaidi kutoka kwenye soko la dubu lenye kina cha aina hii.


Kila paneli hapo juu ni swali lililohifadhiwa lenye toleo linalohusu rekodi ya kihistoria — panua SQL ili kuona kipimo kimojakimoja. Unataka kuhisi siku hii badala ya kuisoma? Ni mojawapo ya hali zinazoweza kuchezea katika kiakilisha cha biashara cha Strasmore Labs.

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