2026年股息率多少算正常？各行业中位数与陷阱

SELECT ticker,
       round(argMax(dividend_yield, date) * 100, 2) AS dividend_yield_pct,
       round(argMax(price, date), 2) AS share_price
FROM global_markets.stocks_ratios
WHERE ticker IN ('VZ', 'T', 'KO', 'JNJ', 'CVX', 'MSFT', 'AAPL', 'NVDA')
  AND date = (SELECT max(date) FROM global_markets.stocks_ratios)
  AND dividend_yield IS NOT NULL
GROUP BY ticker
ORDER BY dividend_yield_pct DESC

SELECT count() AS companies,
       countIf(dividend_yield > 0) AS dividend_payers,
       round(100 * countIf(dividend_yield > 0) / count(), 1) AS payer_pct,
       round(quantileDeterministicIf(0.5)(dividend_yield * 100, cityHash64(ticker), dividend_yield > 0), 2) AS median_payer_yield_pct,
       round(quantileDeterministicIf(0.9)(dividend_yield * 100, cityHash64(ticker), dividend_yield > 0), 2) AS p90_payer_yield_pct,
       countIf(dividend_yield * 100 >= 8) AS yields_8pct_plus
FROM global_markets.stocks_ratios
WHERE date = (SELECT max(date) FROM global_markets.stocks_ratios)
  AND price >= 5
  AND market_cap >= 1000000000

WITH px AS (
    SELECT ticker, argMax(close, window_start) AS price
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('XLU','XLRE','XLE','XLF','XLP','XLV','XLI','XLB','XLC','XLY','XLK','VNQ','AMLP')
      AND window_start >= now() - INTERVAL 7 DAY
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY ticker
),
dv AS (
    SELECT ticker, sum(cash_amount) AS ttm_div, count() AS payments
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE ticker IN ('XLU','XLRE','XLE','XLF','XLP','XLV','XLI','XLB','XLC','XLY','XLK','VNQ','AMLP')
      AND ex_dividend_date > today() - INTERVAL 1 YEAR
      AND ex_dividend_date <= today()
      AND cash_amount > 0
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT px.ticker AS ticker,
       round(px.price, 2) AS price,
       round(dv.ttm_div, 3) AS ttm_distributions_usd,
       dv.payments AS payments,
       round(dv.ttm_div / px.price * 100, 2) AS trailing_yield_pct
FROM px
INNER JOIN dv ON px.ticker = dv.ticker
ORDER BY trailing_yield_pct DESC

WITH spy_px AS (
    SELECT toYear(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS year,
           argMax(close, window_start) AS price
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND toMonth(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) = 6
      AND toDayOfMonth(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= 25
      AND toYear(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= 2016
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY year
),
spy_div AS (
    SELECT toYear(addMonths(ex_dividend_date, 6)) AS year,
           sum(cash_amount) AS ttm_div
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND cash_amount > 0 AND ex_dividend_date >= toDate('2015-07-01')
    GROUP BY year
),
tsy AS (
    SELECT toYear(date) AS year,
           argMax(yield_10_year, date) AS y10
    FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
    WHERE toMonth(date) = 6 AND toYear(date) >= 2016 AND yield_10_year IS NOT NULL
    GROUP BY year
)
SELECT spy_px.year AS year,
       round(spy_div.ttm_div / spy_px.price * 100, 2) AS market_dividend_yield_pct,
       round(tsy.y10, 2) AS treasury_10y_pct,
       round(tsy.y10 - spy_div.ttm_div / spy_px.price * 100, 2) AS treasury_minus_stocks_pct,
       round(abs(tsy.y10 - spy_div.ttm_div / spy_px.price * 100), 2) AS gap_abs_pct
FROM spy_px
INNER JOIN spy_div ON spy_px.year = spy_div.year
INNER JOIN tsy ON spy_px.year = tsy.year
ORDER BY year

SELECT multiIf(dividend_yield * 100 >= 8, '8% and up',
               dividend_yield * 100 >= 5, '5-8%',
               dividend_yield * 100 >= 2.5, '2.5-5%',
               'under 2.5%') AS yield_band,
       count() AS payers,
       round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(dividend_yield * 100, cityHash64(ticker)), 2) AS median_yield_pct,
       round(quantileDeterministicIf(0.5)(dividend_yield * price / earnings_per_share * 100,
                                          cityHash64(ticker), earnings_per_share > 0), 1) AS median_payout_ratio_pct,
       round(100 * countIf(earnings_per_share > 0 AND dividend_yield * price > earnings_per_share)
             / countIf(earnings_per_share > 0), 1) AS pct_paying_over_earnings,
       round(100 * countIf(earnings_per_share <= 0) / count(), 1) AS pct_no_positive_eps
FROM global_markets.stocks_ratios
WHERE date = (SELECT max(date) FROM global_markets.stocks_ratios)
  AND price >= 5
  AND market_cap >= 1000000000
  AND dividend_yield > 0
  AND earnings_per_share IS NOT NULL
GROUP BY yield_band
HAVING countIf(earnings_per_share > 0) > 0
ORDER BY median_yield_pct

WITH px AS (
    SELECT toStartOfMonth(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS month_start,
           argMax(close, window_start) AS price,
           max(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS last_day
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'CAG'
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2023-07-01')
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-06-30')
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY month_start
),
dv AS (
    SELECT ex_dividend_date, cash_amount
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE ticker = 'CAG'
      AND distribution_type = 'recurring'
      AND frequency = 4
      AND cash_amount > 0
      AND ex_dividend_date >= toDate('2022-06-01')
)
SELECT formatDateTime(px.month_start, '%Y-%m') AS month,
       formatDateTimeInJodaSyntax(px.month_start, 'MMMM yyyy') AS month_label,
       round(any(px.price), 2) AS price,
       round(argMax(dv.cash_amount, dv.ex_dividend_date), 2) AS quarterly_dividend_usd,
       round(argMax(dv.cash_amount, dv.ex_dividend_date) * 4 / any(px.price) * 100, 2) AS dividend_yield_pct
FROM px, dv
WHERE dv.ex_dividend_date <= px.last_day
GROUP BY px.month_start
ORDER BY px.month_start

SELECT multiIf(frequency = 4, 'quarterly',
               frequency = 12, 'monthly',
               frequency = 2, 'semi-annual',
               frequency = 1, 'annual',
               'other') AS schedule,
       uniqExact(ticker) AS tickers,
       count() AS payments
FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
WHERE ex_dividend_date >= '2026-01-01'
  AND ex_dividend_date <= '2026-06-30'
  AND distribution_type = 'recurring'
  AND cash_amount > 0
GROUP BY schedule
ORDER BY tickers DESC