Strasmore Research
Market recaps Matt ConnorNi Matt Connor · Na-update noong 2026-07-25

market recap july 1 2026 numbers

Tahimik ang index pero sumabog ang memory complex, tumalon ang META, at karamihan sa S&P sectors ay berde pa rin. Isang araw ng violent tape sa ilalim ng calm surface.

Miyerkules, Hulyo 1, 2026 — ang unang sesyon ng ikalawang kalahati — naglagay ng isa sa pinakatahimik na araw ng index sa ibabaw ng pinakamarahas na tape ng buwan. Ang SPY ay nagsara sa -0.08% at ang QQQ -1.44%, ngunit ang memory complex na nagdala sa ikalawang quarter ay nawalan ng ikasampu ng halaga nito, tumalon ang META ng 8.88%, at 7 ng 11 na S&P sector funds ay nagsara pa ring berde. Nakaraang sesyon: Hunyo 30.

Ang scoreboard

Ang mga pagbabago ay paghahambing ng huling regular-session bar noong Hulyo 1 sa Martes, Hunyo 30.

QuerySPY / QQQ / DIA / IWM — Hulyo 1 vs pagsara ng Hunyo 30, regular hours
Ang eksaktong SQL sa likod ng bawat numero
WITH prior AS (
    SELECT ticker, argMax(close, window_start) AS prior_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'QQQ', 'DIA', 'IWM')
      AND window_start >= '2026-06-30 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-30 20:00:00'
    GROUP BY ticker
),
sess AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           argMin(open, window_start) AS day_open,
           argMax(close, window_start) AS day_close,
           max(high) AS day_high,
           min(low) AS day_low,
           round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_traded_m
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'QQQ', 'DIA', 'IWM')
      AND window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    s.ticker AS ticker,
    round(toFloat64(p.prior_close), 2) AS prior_close,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_open), 2) AS day_open,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_close), 2) AS day_close,
    round((toFloat64(s.day_close) / toFloat64(p.prior_close) - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_change,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_high), 2) AS day_high,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_low), 2) AS day_low,
    s.shares_traded_m AS shares_traded_m
FROM sess s
JOIN prior p ON s.ticker = p.ticker
ORDER BY s.ticker

Ang split ang kwento: ang DIA sa 0.02% at SPY sa -0.08% ay nanatiling flat laban sa -1.44% ng QQQ at -0.37% ng IWM — isang growth selloff na halos hindi naitala ng malawak na merkado.

Isa sa mga pinakatahimik na araw ng index sa nakaraang buwan

QueryGalaw ng SPY mula bukas hanggang pagsara, nirank laban sa trailing month ng sessions (rank 1 = pinakamalaking absolute move)
Ang eksaktong SQL sa likod ng bawat numero
SELECT round(anyIf(oc_pct, d = toDate('2026-07-01')), 2) AS day_move_pct,
       arrayCount(x -> x > abs(anyIf(oc_pct, d = toDate('2026-07-01'))), groupArrayIf(abs(oc_pct), d != toDate('2026-07-01'))) + 1 AS abs_move_rank,
       count() AS sessions_compared,
       toString(min(d)) AS first_session
FROM (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           (argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) / argMin(toFloat64(open), window_start) - 1) * 100 AS oc_pct
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-01 00:00:00')
      AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00')
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    GROUP BY d
)

Mula pagbubukas hanggang pagsasara sa loob ng sesyon — ibang pananaw kumpara sa close-over-close scoreboard — gumalaw ang SPY ng 0.09%: ranggo 20 sa 22 na nakaraang sesyon ayon sa ganap na laki, dalawa lang ang mas kaunti ang galaw. Sumang-ayon ang volatility complex. Walang spot VIX index ang warehouse na ito, kaya ang tseke ay tumatakbo sa mga listed VIX-futures funds — ang pinakamalapit na tradeable na pagbasa sa presyo ng proteksyon:

QueryVolatility complex noong Hulyo 1: VIX-futures ETFs vs pagsara ng Martes, na may SPY bilang anchor
Ang eksaktong SQL sa likod ng bawat numero
WITH per_name AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_low
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'SVXY', 'UVXY', 'VIXY', 'VXX')
      AND ((window_start >= '2026-06-30 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-30 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'))
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_chg,
    round((day_high / day_low - 1) * 100, 2) AS range_pct
FROM per_name
ORDER BY ticker

Ang VXX, ang pinakamalaking front-month VIX futures fund, ay tumaas ng 0.72%; ang VIXY 0.8%; ang leveraged UVXY 1.13% sa loob ng 3.68% range; ang inverse SVXY -0.42%. Mga rounding errors kumpara sa ginawa ng mga indibidwal na stock.

Lawak: mas marami ang bumagsak kaysa tumaas — at mas marami ang gumawa ng bagong mataas kaysa bagong mababa

QueryAdvancers, decliners, at bagong quarterly highs vs lows sa mga ticker na may hindi bababa sa $1M na trade noong Hulyo 1
Ang eksaktong SQL sa likod ng bawat numero
WITH per_ticker AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS quarter_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS quarter_low,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_low,
        sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_dollar_volume,
        countIf(window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS quarter_bars
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ((window_start >= '2026-04-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-30 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'))
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    countIf(day_close > prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS advancers,
    countIf(day_close < prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS decliners,
    countIf(day_close = prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS unchanged,
    round(100.0 * countIf(day_close > prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000)
        / countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000), 1) AS advancer_pct,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars >= 1000 AND day_high > quarter_high) AS new_quarter_highs,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars >= 1000 AND day_low < quarter_low) AS new_quarter_lows,
    round(countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars >= 1000 AND day_high > quarter_high)
        / countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars >= 1000 AND day_low < quarter_low), 1) AS highs_per_low,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars >= 1000) AS names_with_a_full_quarter,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS liquid_tickers,
    count() AS tickers_traded_both_sessions,
    count() - countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS dropped_by_liquidity_filter,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars < 1000) AS dropped_short_quarter_history
FROM per_ticker
WHERE prior_close > 0 AND day_close > 0

2928 ang umakyat, 3465 ang bumaba, 82 ang hindi nagbago — 45.2% ng likidong tape ang tumaas. Ngunit ang lawak ay hindi sukatan ng tindi: kumpara sa regular-hours range ng ikalawang quarter, 836 ng 6217 pangalan na may kumpletong quarter ng trading ay nag-print ng bagong quarterly mataas sa pulang araw na ito, laban sa 246 na nag-print ng bagong mababa — 3.4 bagong mataas bawat bagong mababa. Karamihan ay bumagsak; iilan ang lumampas sa kanilang range. Mga pagbaba: 5435 ng 11910 dual-session ticker na nasa ilalim ng $1 milyon na filter, 258 likidong pangalan na walang buong quarter ng bars.

Ang sector board: ang pinsala ay nasa isang sektor lang

Ang labing-isang SPDR sector fund ang pinakamurang cross-section ng buong merkado — parehong basket kada sesyon.

QueryLabing-isang S&P sector ETFs noong Hulyo 1, pinakamahusay hanggang pinakamasama vs pagsara ng Martes
Ang eksaktong SQL sa likod ng bawat numero
WITH per_name AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') / 1e9, 2) AS day_dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('XLB', 'XLC', 'XLE', 'XLF', 'XLI', 'XLK', 'XLP', 'XLRE', 'XLU', 'XLV', 'XLY')
      AND ((window_start >= '2026-06-30 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-30 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'))
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_chg,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100 - min((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100) OVER (), 2) AS pct_above_worst_sector,
    sum(if(day_close > prior_close, 1, 0)) OVER (ORDER BY (day_close / prior_close) DESC ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS green_so_far,
    day_dollar_bn
FROM per_name
ORDER BY pct_chg DESC

Ang communication services (XLC) — ang sector fund na may hawak ng META — ang nanguna sa 2.41%, kasunod ang financials (XLF) sa 2.2%. Ang technology (XLK) ay nag-iisa sa ilalim, -2.56% at 4.97 percentage points sa ibaba ng nanguna. Sa kabuuan, 7 sa 11 na pondo ay nagsara sa berde — discretionary 0.68%, health care 0.57% — laban sa utilities (-1.28%), industrials (-0.98%) at energy (-0.6%) na nasa pula. Iyon ang "ang index ay halos hindi gumalaw" mula sa ilalim.

Ang highlight ng araw: bumagsak ang memory, kabaliktaran ang META

Walong pangalan ang nagdala ng dispersion: ang apat na memory-and-storage stocks na nanguna sa ikalawang quarter, at apat na chip at platform names sa paligid nila. Iniulat ang co-movement, magnitude at timing; hindi sinasabi ng datos kung bakit.

QueryMemory complex at megacaps: pagbabago vs pagsara ng Martes, range timing, at dollar volume
Ang eksaktong SQL sa likod ng bawat numero
WITH per_name AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_low,
        argMinIf(window_start, (toFloat64(low), toInt64(toUnixTimestamp(window_start))), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS low_bar,
        argMaxIf(window_start, (toFloat64(high), -toInt64(toUnixTimestamp(window_start))), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS high_bar,
        round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') / 1e9, 2) AS day_dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('AMD', 'META', 'MRVL', 'MU', 'NVDA', 'SNDK', 'STX', 'WDC')
      AND ((window_start >= '2026-06-30 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-30 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'))
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_chg,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(high_bar, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS day_high_et,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(low_bar, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS day_low_et,
    toHour(toTimeZone(low_bar, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(low_bar, 'America/New_York')) AS low_minute_et,
    round((day_high / day_low - 1) * 100, 2) AS range_pct,
    day_dollar_bn
FROM per_name
ORDER BY ticker

Ang SanDisk (-10.45%) at Micron (-10.23%) ay parehong nawalan ng higit sa ikasampu ng kanilang halaga; Marvell -8.68%, AMD -6.87%, Western Digital -6.3%, Seagate -5.11%. Ang MU ay nag-turnover ng $42.94 billion, mas malaki pa sa buong araw na trading ng SPY, at ang MU, AMD at Marvell ay bawat isa ay nag-print ng session lows sa mga huling minuto (15:59, 15:57, 15:58 ET) — naibenta sa closing auction, hindi isang morning air pocket na gumaling (ang MU deep-dive ay may quarter sa likod nito).

Ang META ay ang mirror image: 8.88% sa $22.72 billion na traded, ang low nito ay 09:30 ET — ang opening bar — at hindi na na-revisit. Ang NVDA ay walang galaw sa -1.09% (NVDA's June).

Ano ang sinabi

Ang pahinang ito ay hindi nagtatalaga ng mga dahilan. Ngunit ang aming lisensyadong news feed ay isang talahanayan tulad ng iba pa — kung ano ang dala nito sa araw na iyon:

QueryHuling labindalawang news articles ng araw na nagta-tag ng MU, SNDK, STX, WDC o META (isang licensed feed)
Ang eksaktong SQL sa likod ng bawat numero
SELECT published_et, publisher, names_tagged, headline
FROM (
    SELECT
        published_utc,
        formatDateTime(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS published_et,
        JSONExtractString(publisher, 'name') AS publisher,
        arrayStringConcat(arrayFilter(x -> x IN ('MU', 'SNDK', 'STX', 'WDC', 'META'), tickers), ' ') AS names_tagged,
        substring(title, 1, 72) AS headline
    FROM global_markets.stocks_news
    WHERE published_utc >= '2026-07-01 04:00:00' AND published_utc < '2026-07-02 04:00:00'
      AND hasAny(tickers, ['MU', 'SNDK', 'STX', 'WDC', 'META'])
      AND NOT has(tickers, 'SPCX')
      AND position(title, 'SPCX') = 0
    ORDER BY published_utc DESC
    LIMIT 12
)
ORDER BY published_utc ASC

Ang artikulo ng Motley Fool bandang kalagitnaan ng hapon tungkol sa Micron (14:11 ET) ay lumabas sa ilalim ng headline na "Why Micron Stock Is Plummeting Today". Ang kanilang evening wrap (17:12 ET) at ang follow-up makalipas ang apat na minuto (17:16 ET) ay parehong inilagay ang pagtalon ng META sa tabi ng isang naiulat na plano na ibenta ang sobrang AI compute bilang isang cloud business. Iyan ang pagkakabalangkas ng outlet, hindi isang natuklasan sa tape, at ang 12 na mga artikulo mula sa dalawang publisher ay atensyon ng isang feed, hindi ng merkado.

Kung saan nag-trade ang pera

QueryVolume leaders sa dalawang paraan: top 6 ayon sa dollars traded, top 4 ayon sa shares traded (isang reused-symbol listing na hindi kasama pending entity verification)
Ang eksaktong SQL sa likod ng bawat numero
SELECT ticker, leaderboard, dollar_volume_bn, if(dollar_volume_bn < 1, dollar_volume_m, NULL) AS dollar_value_m, shares_m,
    round(100 * if(leaderboard = 'by dollars traded', dollar_volume_bn, shares_m)
        / max(if(leaderboard = 'by dollars traded', dollar_volume_bn, shares_m)) OVER (PARTITION BY leaderboard), 1) AS pct_of_board_leader
FROM (
    SELECT
        'by dollars traded' AS leaderboard,
        ticker,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS dollar_volume_bn,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 0) AS dollar_volume_m,
        round(sum(toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    GROUP BY ticker
    ORDER BY dollar_volume_bn DESC
    LIMIT 6
    UNION ALL
    SELECT
        'by shares traded' AS leaderboard,
        ticker,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS dollar_volume_bn,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 0) AS dollar_volume_m,
        round(sum(toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    GROUP BY ticker
    ORDER BY shares_m DESC
    LIMIT 4
)
ORDER BY leaderboard ASC, if(leaderboard = 'by dollars traded', dollar_volume_bn, shares_m) DESC

Ang $42.94 bilyon ng MU ang nanguna sa tape — pangalawa ang SPY sa $27.76 bilyon, ikaapat ang META sa $22.72 bilyon — isang bumabagsak na stock na nalampasan ang index fund ng kalahati. Ang mga sukdulan ng galaw ay ang pinakamaingay na pangalan dito. Ang share board ay ang karaniwang funhouse mirror: nanguna ang SOXS, ang 3x-inverse semiconductor ETF, sa 553.1 milyong shares — pinaka-abala sa araw na bumagsak ang chips — habang isang mababang-presyong pangalan ang bumubuo rito sa 189.8 milyong shares na nagkakahalaga ng $319 milyon (tumpak na itinuturo ng relative volume ito). Batayan: regular na oras ng Hulyo 1, isang reused-symbol listing ang hindi kasama (resibo).

Ang options tape

QueryIsang row para sa buong options day: volume, same-day expiry, put/call skew, at ang pinaka-busy na contract
Ang eksaktong SQL sa likod ng bawat numero
WITH
    (
        SELECT (any(underlying_symbol), any(toFloat64(strike_price)), any(option_type),
                sum(size), round(avg(toFloat64(price)), 3),
                any(if(substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260701', 1, 0)))
        FROM global_markets.options_trades
        WHERE sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-02 00:00:00'
        GROUP BY ticker
        ORDER BY sum(size) DESC, ticker ASC
        LIMIT 1
    ) AS top_contract,
    (
        SELECT round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2)
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
    ) AS spy_regular_close
SELECT
    round(count() / 1e6, 2) AS option_prints_m,
    round(toFloat64(sum(size)) / 1e6, 2) AS contracts_m,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, option_type = 'C') / sum(size), 1) AS call_pct_of_volume,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(size), option_type = 'P') / sumIf(toFloat64(size), option_type = 'C'), 2) AS put_call_ratio,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260701') / sum(size), 1) AS same_day_expiry_pct,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260702')) / 1e6, 2) AS thu_jul2_expiry_contracts_m,
    countIf(substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260703') AS fri_jul3_expiry_prints,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY' AND option_type = 'P')) / 1e6, 2) AS spy_put_contracts_m,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY' AND option_type = 'P' AND toFloat64(strike_price) < spy_regular_close * 0.98)
        / sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY' AND option_type = 'P'), 1) AS spy_puts_2pct_below_pct,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY' AND option_type = 'C' AND toFloat64(strike_price) > spy_regular_close * 1.02)
        / sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY' AND option_type = 'C'), 1) AS spy_calls_2pct_above_pct,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(size), underlying_symbol = 'MU' AND option_type = 'P')
        / sumIf(toFloat64(size), underlying_symbol = 'MU' AND option_type = 'C'), 2) AS mu_put_call_ratio,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(size), underlying_symbol = 'META' AND option_type = 'P')
        / sumIf(toFloat64(size), underlying_symbol = 'META' AND option_type = 'C'), 2) AS meta_put_call_ratio,
    top_contract.1 AS top_contract_underlying,
    top_contract.2 AS top_contract_strike,
    top_contract.3 AS top_contract_type,
    top_contract.4 AS top_contract_volume,
    reverse(arrayStringConcat(extractAll(reverse(toString(assumeNotNull(top_contract.4))), '\\d{1,3}'), ',')) AS top_contract_volume_fmt,
    round(top_contract.5, 3) AS top_contract_avg_price,
    top_contract.6 AS top_contract_is_same_day,
    round(top_contract.2 - spy_regular_close, 2) AS top_strike_minus_spy_close,
    spy_regular_close AS spy_close
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-02 00:00:00'

Ang options ay nag-trade ng 68.46 milyong kontrata sa 11.22 milyong prints — ang calls ay 58.6% ng volume, ang same-day expiries ay 33.5%. Walang nag-hedge sa index: 0.71 puts per call sa buong market, at sa 5.76 milyong puts ng SPY, 11.6% lang ang naka-strike ng higit sa dalawang porsyento sa ibaba ng 745.69 close nito — ang mga far-downside strikes na kumikita sa crash. Ang skew ay nasa single names: ang puts ng Micron ay lumampas sa calls nito (1.11 per call) habang ang calls ng META ay tinalo ang puts nito nang higit sa two to one (0.39). Ang pinaka-abalang kontrata ay ang same-day SPY $748 call — 878,947 kontrata sa $0.707 average — na nag-expire ng 2.31 dollars out of the money, gaya ng ginawa noong Martes. Walang July 3 expiry na nag-print buong araw (0 prints — sarado ang Biyernes na iyon); ang Thursday weekly ay kumuha ng 14.43 milyon.

Rates: pataas ang pag-anod, pababa ang front end

Ang mga yield ay araw-araw na pagsasara laban sa Hunyo 30.

QueryTreasury curve, pagsara ng Hulyo 1 vs Hunyo 30 (populated maturities lang)
Ang eksaktong SQL sa likod ng bawat numero
SELECT
    t.1 AS curve_point,
    round(t.2, 2) AS jul1_yield_pct,
    round((t.2 - t.3) * 100) AS one_day_change_bp
FROM (
    SELECT arrayJoin([
        ('1 month',  toFloat64(d.yield_1_month),  toFloat64(p.yield_1_month)),
        ('3 month',  toFloat64(d.yield_3_month),  toFloat64(p.yield_3_month)),
        ('1 year',   toFloat64(d.yield_1_year),   toFloat64(p.yield_1_year)),
        ('2 year',   toFloat64(d.yield_2_year),   toFloat64(p.yield_2_year)),
        ('5 year',   toFloat64(d.yield_5_year),   toFloat64(p.yield_5_year)),
        ('10 year',  toFloat64(d.yield_10_year),  toFloat64(p.yield_10_year)),
        ('30 year',  toFloat64(d.yield_30_year),  toFloat64(p.yield_30_year)),
        ('2s10s spread', toFloat64(d.yield_10_year - d.yield_2_year), toFloat64(p.yield_10_year - p.yield_2_year))
    ]) AS t
    FROM (SELECT * FROM global_markets.treasury_yields WHERE date = '2026-07-01') AS d,
         (SELECT * FROM global_markets.treasury_yields WHERE date = '2026-06-30') AS p
)

Ang 10-year ay nagdagdag ng 4 bp sa 4.48% at ang 30-year ay 6 bp, habang ang 1-month bill ay gumalaw ng -3 bp — pataas ang belly at long end, pababa ang front end. Ang 2s10s spread ay nagsara sa 0.31 percentage points: walang tumugma sa equity dispersion dito.

Ang kalendaryo sa likod ng araw

QueryCorporate calendar at information flow ng Hulyo 1, sa isang row
Ang eksaktong SQL sa likod ng bawat numero
WITH
    (
        SELECT (count(), uniqExact(publisher))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')) = '2026-07-01'
    ) AS news,
    (
        SELECT (argMax(t, n), max(n))
        FROM (
            SELECT t, count() AS n
            FROM (
                SELECT arrayJoin(tickers) AS t
                FROM global_markets.stocks_news
                WHERE toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')) = '2026-07-01'
            )
            WHERE t != 'SPCX'
            GROUP BY t
        )
    ) AS top_news
SELECT
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-01') AS ex_dividend_records,
    (SELECT countIf(frequency = 12) FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-01') AS monthly_payers,
    (SELECT countIf(frequency = 4) FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-01') AS quarterly_payers,
    (SELECT round(100.0 * countIf(frequency = 12) / count(), 1) FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-01') AS monthly_payer_pct,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_splits WHERE execution_date = '2026-07-01') AS splits_executed,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos WHERE listing_date = '2026-07-01') AS ipos_listed,
    (SELECT uniqExact(accession_number) FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = '2026-07-01') AS sec_filings,
    (SELECT uniqExactIf(accession_number, form_type = '4') FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = '2026-07-01') AS insider_form4_filings,
    (SELECT uniqExactIf(accession_number, form_type = '8-K') FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = '2026-07-01') AS filings_8k,
    (SELECT arrayStringConcat(groupArray(concat(ticker, ' — ', issuer_name)), '; ') FROM (
        SELECT ticker, issuer_name FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos WHERE listing_date = '2026-07-01' ORDER BY ticker
    )) AS ipo_names,
    news.1 AS news_articles,
    news.2 AS news_publishers,
    top_news.1 AS most_covered_ticker,
    top_news.2 AS most_covered_articles

Ang pag-ikot ng quarter ay umabot dito: 745 dividend records ang nag-ex-dividend — ang alon na binabantayan ng June recap — kasama ng 9 splits at 3 listings (BSP — Bending Spoons S.p.A.; ITG — ITG Inc.; LIME — Neutron Holdings Inc.). Bumuhay ang filing feed: 4282 filings, 1072 sa mga ito ay Form 4s at 248 8-Ks, matapos ang halos walang laman na index day noong June 30 (ang month-end gap note). Nagdala ang aming feed ng 201 articles, pinaka-cover MSFT sa 16.

Pero walang sinasabi ang bilang kung sino ang nagbabayad. Kapag nirank ayon sa perang ipinagkalakal sa kanila, hindi corporate ang board:

QueryPinakamalalaking pangalan na mag-e-ex-dividend noong Hulyo 1, nirank ayon sa dollar volume ng araw
Ang eksaktong SQL sa likod ng bawat numero
WITH divs AS (
    SELECT ticker, max(toFloat64(cash_amount)) AS cash, max(frequency) AS freq
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-01' AND distribution_type = 'recurring'
    GROUP BY ticker
),
tape AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) AS dollar_volume,
           toFloat64(argMax(close, (window_start, close))) AS day_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    d.ticker AS ticker,
    round(d.cash, 4) AS cash_per_share,
    d.freq AS payments_per_year,
    round(t.day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round(100 * d.cash / t.day_close, 2) AS pct_of_price,
    round(100 * d.cash * d.freq / t.day_close, 2) AS annualized_yield_pct,
    round(t.dollar_volume / 1e9, 2) AS day_dollar_bn
FROM divs d JOIN tape t ON d.ticker = t.ticker
WHERE t.dollar_volume > 0 AND d.cash > 0
ORDER BY t.dollar_volume DESC
LIMIT 8

Bawat isa sa walong pinaka-abalang ex-dividend tickers ay isang fund na nagbabayad ng 12 beses sa isang taon: SGOV, isang Treasury-bill fund, nag-ex sa $0.2958 bawat share (0.29% ng presyo, 3.54% annualized) sa $3.5 bilyong ipinagkalakal; HYG, isang high-yield bond fund, sa $0.3688. Iyan ay isang first-of-month wave: 572 ng 745 records ng araw (76.8%) ay monthly payers — funds na namamahagi ng interest — laban sa 123 quarterly payers. Ang ex-date drop ay mekanikal, hindi isang pagkawala.

Ordinaryo ba ang unang araw ng isang quarter?

Ang framing ay nagsusulat na mismo: bagong quarter, bagong pera, sariwang alokasyon. Sumasalungat ang database.

QueryBawat quarter-opening session mula noong 2004: galaw ng SPY mula bukas hanggang pagsara, na nirank ang Hulyo 1 sa loob nito
Ang eksaktong SQL sa likod ng bawat numero
SELECT
    count() AS quarter_opens_measured,
    round(quantileExact(0.5)(oc_pct), 2) AS median_quarter_open_pct,
    countIf(oc_pct > 0) AS quarter_opens_green,
    countIf(oc_pct <= 0) AS quarter_opens_red,
    round(anyIf(oc_pct, first_day = toDate('2026-07-01')), 2) AS jul1_oc_pct,
    arrayCount(x -> x < anyIf(oc_pct, first_day = toDate('2026-07-01')), groupArrayIf(oc_pct, first_day != toDate('2026-07-01'))) + 1 AS jul1_rank_worst_to_best,
    round(min(oc_pct), 2) AS worst_quarter_open_pct,
    round(max(oc_pct), 2) AS best_quarter_open_pct,
    concat(monthName(min(first_day)), ' ', toString(toYear(min(first_day)))) AS first_measured
FROM (
    SELECT f.first_day AS first_day, d.oc_pct AS oc_pct
    FROM (
        SELECT toStartOfQuarter(d) AS q, min(d) AS first_day
        FROM (
            SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d
            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
            WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
              AND window_start >= toDateTime('2004-01-01 00:00:00')
              AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00')
              AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
            GROUP BY d
        )
        GROUP BY q
    ) f
    INNER JOIN (
        SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
               (argMax(toFloat64(close), (window_start, close)) / argMin(toFloat64(open), (window_start, open)) - 1) * 100 AS oc_pct
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2004-01-01 00:00:00')
          AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00')
          AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
        GROUP BY d
    ) d ON d.d = f.first_day
)

Sa 91 sesyon ng pagbubukas ng quarter mula noong January 2004, ang median open-to-close na galaw ng SPY sa unang araw ng isang quarter ay 0.01% — 46 berde laban sa 45 pula, mula -2.28% hanggang 3.18%: isang coin flip na may rounding error. Ang July 1 ay nag-print ng 0.09%, rank 50 sa 91 pinakamasama hanggang pinakamahusay — nasa gitna. Basehan: SPY regular-hours open-to-close, bawat unang sesyon ng quarter sa database.

Ang natitira sa mambabasa pagkatapos ng araw

Ang index ay kumilos ng 0.09%; ang panel na may walong pangalan ay sumasaklaw mula -10.45% hanggang 8.88%; ang proteksyon ay halos hindi nag-reprice. Iyan ang ordinaryong aritmetika ng isang puro merkado — ang pagkalugi ng isang sektor ay binabayaran ng mga kita sa 7 ng 11 na iba pa, at iyon ang ibinubunga ng isang index. Ang pagtingin sa antas ng index ay walang nakikita rito; ang pagtingin sa antas ng posisyon ay nakakakita ng ikasampu ng isang hawak na nawala sa isang araw.

Ang sesyon, beripikado

QuerySession check: observed minute-bar span ng SPY
Ang eksaktong SQL sa likod ng bawat numero
SELECT
    formatDateTime(min(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), '%H:%i') AS first_spy_bar_et,
    formatDateTime(max(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), '%H:%i') AS last_spy_bar_et,
    count() AS spy_minute_bars,
    countIf(window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00') AS regular_session_bars,
    uniqExactIf(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00') AS day_sessions,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_market_holidays WHERE date = '2026-07-01') AS jul1_holiday_rows
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 00:00:00'

Ang mga bar ng SPY ay tumatakbo mula 04:00 hanggang 19:59 oras ng New York, na may 390 regular-window bars at 0 holiday rows sa petsa — isang kumpletong sesyon, beripikado mula sa tape.

FAQ

Tumaaas ba o bumaba ang stock market noong Hulyo 1, 2026?

Depende kung saan ka titingin. Ang SPY ay nagsara sa -0.08%, DIA sa 0.02%, QQQ sa -1.44%; 3465 ng mga likidong pangalan ay bumagsak laban sa 2928 na tumaas — gayunpaman, 7 ng 11 sector funds ay nagsara na berde, ang teknolohiya ang outlier.

Bakit lahat ng Micron, SanDisk, Western Digital at Seagate ay bumagsak noong Hulyo 1, 2026?

Ang datos na ito ay nag-uulat ng sabay-sabay na paggalaw, hindi ng dahilan: ang apat ay bumagsak sa pagitan ng -5.11% at -10.45%. Ang artikulo ng The Motley Fool sa parehong araw tungkol sa Micron (sa news panel sa pahinang ito, 14:11 ET) ay lumabas sa ilalim ng headline na "Why Micron Stock Is Plummeting Today". Iyon ang pag-frame ng outlet, hindi isang natuklasan sa tape.

Bakit tumaas ang META noong Hulyo 1, 2026?

Ang META ay nagsara ng 8.88% na mas mataas, ang pinakamababa nito sa opening bar. Ang coverage ng The Motley Fool ay nag-attribute ng paggalaw sa mga ulat na plano ng kumpanya na ibenta ang sobrang AI computing capacity bilang isang cloud business: attribution ng outlet, hindi sa amin.

Karaniwan bang malakas na araw ang unang araw ng trading ng isang quarter?

Hindi ito nasusukat. Sa kabuuan ng 91 quarter openings mula noong January 2004, ang median open-to-close move ng SPY ay 0.01%: 46 berde, 45 pula — isang coin flip; ang Hulyo 1 ay nasa gitna ng pack.

Nag-hedge ba ang options market sa selloff noong Hulyo 1, 2026?

Hindi sa antas ng index: 0.71 puts bawat call sa buong merkado, at 11.6% lang ng put volume ng SPY ang tumama ng higit sa dalawang porsyento sa ibaba ng close.

Mga tala sa datos

  • Ang dollar volume ay isang per-minutong proxy — close × volume na pinagsama-sama bawat minutong bar, regular na oras. Ang mga ipinakitang extremes ay na-cross-check laban sa katabing mga bar; ang tie ay kumukuha ng pinakamaaga.
  • Walang spot VIX index dito. Ang volatility panel ay nagbabasa ng mga nakalistang VIX-futures funds, na humahawak at nag-roll ng futures — kaugnay ng index, hindi kailanman magkapareho.
  • Ang mga bagong quarterly highs/lows ay inihahambing ang July 1 na regular-hours extremes sa bawat pangalan na April 1–June 30 range, para sa mga liquid na pangalan na may buong quarter ng mga bar; ang mga pagbaba ay nasa panel.
  • Ang sector board ay isang curated basket (labing-isang SPDR ETFs, hindi isang vendor field); ang news panel ay isang lisensyadong feed (12 artikulo, dalawang publisher); isang reused-symbol listing ay hindi kasama sa mga leaderboards (ang mga resibo nito).

Pamamaraan

  • Isang trading session (1 session, na-verify mula sa naobserbahang bars at holiday table — hindi kailanman inaassume). Ang mga timestamp ay naka-store sa UTC, kino-convert sa New York time sa loob ng queries; ang "close" ay ang huling regular-session minute bar, ang pagbabago ng araw ay laban sa June 30.
  • Ang mga decimal ay naka-cast sa 64-bit floats bago ang ratio arithmetic; ang option expiries ay nire-reparse mula sa OCC ticker. Ang mga panel ay tumatakbo nang isang beses, sa oras ng paggawa, sa pamamagitan ng gated read-only path. Ang warehouse state ay noong July 13, 2026; ang edisyong ito ay nagdadagdag ng sector, volatility, news, dividend at quarter-history panels.

Ang bawat panel ay isang stored query result — chart, table at SQL ay iisang bagay. I-paste ang alinman sa Strasmore terminal. Susunod: July 2; ang linggo: ang holiday week.

#recap#daily#spy#qqq#market structure