Strasmore Research
市场回顾 Matt Connor作者: Matt Connor · 更新于 2026-08-09

市场回顾:二零二六年七月一日数据汇总

下半年首个交易日指数平静但内部波动剧烈。SPY、QQQ小幅波动,存储器板块大跌,META上涨,多数标普板块收涨。

2026年7月1日星期三是下半年首个交易日,也是当月指数表现最平静的交易日之一,但盘面波动却异常剧烈。SPY收于-0.08%,QQQ收于-1.44%;然而,推动第二季度上涨的存储器板块市值缩水十分之一,META上涨8.88%11只剩7的标普板块基金收涨。上一交易日:6月30日

成绩一览

变化比较的是7月1日常规交易时段的最后一根K线与6月30日周二的收盘数据。

查询SPY / QQQ / DIA / IWM:7月1日较6月30日收盘,正常交易时段
股票代码前收盘价日开盘价日收盘价涨跌幅日最高价日最低价成交股数(百万)
DIA522.28521.43522.410.02526.72519.623.2
IWM300.42299.93299.31-0.37302.72298.9218.3
QQQ735.76729.19725.16-1.44731.92724.634.7
SPY746.32745745.69-0.08749.44742.3837.2
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH prior AS (
    SELECT ticker, argMax(close, window_start) AS prior_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'QQQ', 'DIA', 'IWM')
      AND window_start >= '2026-06-30 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-30 20:00:00'
    GROUP BY ticker
),
sess AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           argMin(open, window_start) AS day_open,
           argMax(close, window_start) AS day_close,
           max(high) AS day_high,
           min(low) AS day_low,
           round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_traded_m
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'QQQ', 'DIA', 'IWM')
      AND window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    s.ticker AS ticker,
    round(toFloat64(p.prior_close), 2) AS prior_close,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_open), 2) AS day_open,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_close), 2) AS day_close,
    round((toFloat64(s.day_close) / toFloat64(p.prior_close) - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_change,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_high), 2) AS day_high,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_low), 2) AS day_low,
    s.shares_traded_m AS shares_traded_m
FROM sess s
JOIN prior p ON s.ticker = p.ticker
ORDER BY s.ticker
自己运行这个查询

分化才是关键:DIA为0.02%、SPY为-0.08%,基本持平;相比之下,QQQ为-1.44%、IWM为-0.37%。成长股遭到抛售,但大盘几乎未受影响。

过去一个月内最平静的指数交易日之一

查询SPY开盘至收盘的变动:在过去一个月交易日中排名(第1名 = 绝对变动最大)
日变动幅度(%)绝对变动排名比较交易日数首个交易日
0.0920222026-06-01
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT round(anyIf(oc_pct, d = toDate('2026-07-01')), 2) AS day_move_pct,
       arrayCount(x -> x > abs(anyIf(oc_pct, d = toDate('2026-07-01'))), groupArrayIf(abs(oc_pct), d != toDate('2026-07-01'))) + 1 AS abs_move_rank,
       count() AS sessions_compared,
       toString(min(d)) AS first_session
FROM (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           (argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) / argMin(toFloat64(open), window_start) - 1) * 100 AS oc_pct
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-01 00:00:00')
      AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00')
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    GROUP BY d
)
自己运行这个查询

从开盘到收盘观察,与收盘价对收盘价的统计口径不同,SPY变动了0.09%:按绝对变动幅度计,在过去22个交易日中排名20,只有两天的变动更小。波动率相关资产也反映了这一点。该数据库不包含现货VIX指数,因此我们改用已上市的VIX期货基金进行核对。这是最接近可交易的保护性资产价格指标:

查询7月1日波动率板块:VIX期货ETF较周二收盘的变动,SPY为锚点
股票代码前收盘价日收盘价涨跌幅波动范围(%)
SPY746.32745.69-0.080.95
SVXY57.2557.01-0.421.19
UVXY24.8725.151.133.68
VIXY21.321.470.82.38
VXX22.1122.270.722.45
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH per_name AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_low
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'SVXY', 'UVXY', 'VIXY', 'VXX')
      AND ((window_start >= '2026-06-30 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-30 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'))
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_chg,
    round((day_high / day_low - 1) * 100, 2) AS range_pct
FROM per_name
ORDER BY ticker
自己运行这个查询

VXX是规模最大的近月VIX期货基金,上涨0.72%;VIXY上涨0.8%;杠杆型UVXY在3.68%的区间内变动1.13%;反向基金SVXY变动-0.42%。与个股的表现相比,这些变化几乎可以忽略。

市场广度:下跌股票多于上涨股票,但创出新高的股票多于创出新低的股票

查询7月1日成交额至少100万美元的股票中,上涨股、下跌股及季度新高/新低数量
上涨股数下跌股数平盘股数上涨股占比创季度新高数创季度新低数新高/新低数完整季度数据股票数高流动性股票代码数两交易日均成交股票代码数因流动性筛选剔除数因季度历史不足剔除数
292834658245.28362463.462176475119105435258
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH per_ticker AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS quarter_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS quarter_low,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_low,
        sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_dollar_volume,
        countIf(window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS quarter_bars
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ((window_start >= '2026-04-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-30 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'))
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    countIf(day_close > prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS advancers,
    countIf(day_close < prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS decliners,
    countIf(day_close = prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS unchanged,
    round(100.0 * countIf(day_close > prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000)
        / countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000), 1) AS advancer_pct,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars >= 1000 AND day_high > quarter_high) AS new_quarter_highs,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars >= 1000 AND day_low < quarter_low) AS new_quarter_lows,
    round(countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars >= 1000 AND day_high > quarter_high)
        / countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars >= 1000 AND day_low < quarter_low), 1) AS highs_per_low,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars >= 1000) AS names_with_a_full_quarter,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS liquid_tickers,
    count() AS tickers_traded_both_sessions,
    count() - countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS dropped_by_liquidity_filter,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars < 1000) AS dropped_short_quarter_history
FROM per_ticker
WHERE prior_close > 0 AND day_close > 0
自己运行这个查询

2928只股票上涨,3465只股票下跌,82只股票持平;流动性较高的交易记录中,有45.2%上涨。但覆盖范围不等于跌幅严重程度:与第二季度常规交易时段的波动区间相比,在这一下跌日,完成整个季度交易的6217只股票中,有836只创出季度新高,有246只创出新低,即每创出一个新低对应3.4个新高。多数股票只是小幅回落,少数跌破了原有区间。下跌股票包括:在100万美元门槛筛选下,双时段交易代码中有5435,以及没有完整季度K线数据的流动性较高股票中有11910;后者占流动性较高、没有完整季度K线数据股票的258

行业板块:跌幅仅深入一个板块

这十一只SPDR行业基金,是观察整个市场横截面的最低成本工具,每个交易日跟踪同一篮子资产。

查询7月1日标普行业ETF:较周二收盘表现由优至劣
股票代码前收盘价日收盘价涨跌幅高于最差板块的比例截至目前上涨日成交额(十亿美元)
XLC107.16109.742.414.9711.46
XLF53.6154.792.24.7622.35
XLY117.27118.070.683.2431.02
XLV158.67159.570.573.1341.48
XLRE44.0244.180.362.9350.33
XLB50.84510.312.8860.63
XLP83.0883.330.32.8670.85
XLE53.1452.82-0.61.9671.66
XLI185.22183.41-0.981.5971.35
XLU45.3444.76-1.281.2871.17
XLK190.42185.54-2.56071.7
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH per_name AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') / 1e9, 2) AS day_dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('XLB', 'XLC', 'XLE', 'XLF', 'XLI', 'XLK', 'XLP', 'XLRE', 'XLU', 'XLV', 'XLY')
      AND ((window_start >= '2026-06-30 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-30 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'))
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_chg,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100 - min((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100) OVER (), 2) AS pct_above_worst_sector,
    sum(if(day_close > prior_close, 1, 0)) OVER (ORDER BY (day_close / prior_close) DESC ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS green_so_far,
    day_dollar_bn
FROM per_name
ORDER BY pct_chg DESC
自己运行这个查询

通信服务(XLC)板块基金持有META,领涨,涨幅为2.41%;金融(XLF)紧随其后,涨幅为2.2%。科技(XLK)板块独居跌幅榜底部,较领涨板块低-2.56%和4.97个百分点。总体来看,11只基金中有7只收涨;可选消费(0.68%)和医疗保健(0.57%)上涨,而公用事业(-1.28%)、工业(-0.98%)和能源(-0.6%)下跌。这就是“指数几乎没有变动”在市场内部的真实情况。

当日焦点:存储股遭遇重挫,META则走出相反行情

八只股票推动了这场分化:四只在第二季度领涨的存储与内存股,以及围绕它们的四只芯片和平台股。文中报告联动性、跌幅和时间点;数据并未说明原因。

查询存储芯片板块与大型股:较周二收盘变动、区间时段及美元成交额
股票代码前收盘价日收盘价涨跌幅日最高价时间(ET)日最低价时间(ET)最低价分钟(ET)波动范围(%)日成交额(十亿美元)
AMD580.82540.89-6.8709:5115:579574.7112
META562.94612.928.8811:0509:305705.5822.72
MRVL297.79271.95-8.6810:0815:589587.87.14
MU1151.011033.29-10.2309:4815:599596.2842.94
NVDA199.76197.58-1.0915:0909:335733.3121.73
SNDK2272.592035.07-10.4509:5114:498896.3918.38
STX964.55915.25-5.1109:5109:355755.692.84
WDC638.57598.37-6.309:5110:466465.394
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH per_name AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_low,
        argMinIf(window_start, (toFloat64(low), toInt64(toUnixTimestamp(window_start))), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS low_bar,
        argMaxIf(window_start, (toFloat64(high), -toInt64(toUnixTimestamp(window_start))), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS high_bar,
        round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') / 1e9, 2) AS day_dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('AMD', 'META', 'MRVL', 'MU', 'NVDA', 'SNDK', 'STX', 'WDC')
      AND ((window_start >= '2026-06-30 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-30 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'))
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_chg,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(high_bar, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS day_high_et,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(low_bar, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS day_low_et,
    toHour(toTimeZone(low_bar, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(low_bar, 'America/New_York')) AS low_minute_et,
    round((day_high / day_low - 1) * 100, 2) AS range_pct,
    day_dollar_bn
FROM per_name
ORDER BY ticker
自己运行这个查询

SanDisk(-10.45%)和 Micron(-10.23%)的市值跌幅均超过十分之一;Marvell -8.68%、AMD -6.87%、Western Digital -6.3%、Seagate -5.11%。MU成交额达 42.94十亿美元,超过 SPY 全天成交额;MU、AMD 和 Marvell 均在收盘前几分钟创下日内低点(15:5915:5715:58 ET),卖盘在收盘集合竞价中完成,而不是早盘短暂下挫后迅速修复(MU深度分析介绍了背后的季度情况)。

META则完全相反:成交额为 8.88%,成交额达 22.72十亿美元,低点出现在 09:30 ET,即开盘K线,此后再未回到该水平。NVDA基本没有变动,报 -1.09%(NVDA的六月表现)。

报道内容

本页面不对原因作出判断。但我们的授权新闻源与其他数据表一样,只记录当天发布的内容:

查询当日最后12条涉及MU、SNDK、STX、WDC或META的新闻(单一授权信息源)
发布时间(ET)发布者标记名称数标题
11:30The Motley FoolMUCould Micron Stock Reach $2,000 on Memory Demand Alone?
12:15The Motley FoolMUIf You'd Invested $1,500 in Micron Stock 1 Year Ago, Here's How Much You
12:26The Motley FoolMETAWhy CoreWeave Stock Is Tumbling Today
14:11The Motley FoolMUWhy Micron Stock Is Plummeting Today
14:24Investing.comMETAMarkets Whipsaw as Semiconductors Fall and Magnificent 7 Stocks Move Hig
15:23The Motley FoolSNDK MU WDCWill Sandisk Stock Split by Year-End 2026?
15:32Investing.comMETANasdaq Posts Best Quarter in 6 Years as AI Backlogs Grow
15:43Investing.comMETA MUS&P 500 Breadth Shows Rotation Is Replacing Mega-Cap Dependence
17:12The Motley FoolMETA MU SNDKStock Market Today, July 1: Meta Shakes Up Cloud Sector and Tech Stocks
17:16The Motley FoolMETAStock Market Today, July 1: Meta Surges on Reported Plan for AI Cloud Bu
17:33The Motley FoolMETAStock Market Today, July 1: CoreWeave Stock Tumbles as Meta Cloud Report
22:20The Motley FoolMETAWhy Meta Platforms Stock Surged Today
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT published_et, publisher, names_tagged, headline
FROM (
    SELECT
        published_utc,
        formatDateTime(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS published_et,
        JSONExtractString(publisher, 'name') AS publisher,
        arrayStringConcat(arrayFilter(x -> x IN ('MU', 'SNDK', 'STX', 'WDC', 'META'), tickers), ' ') AS names_tagged,
        substring(title, 1, 72) AS headline
    FROM global_markets.stocks_news
    WHERE published_utc >= '2026-07-01 04:00:00' AND published_utc < '2026-07-02 04:00:00'
      AND hasAny(tickers, ['MU', 'SNDK', 'STX', 'WDC', 'META'])
      AND NOT has(tickers, 'SPCX')
      AND position(title, 'SPCX') = 0
    ORDER BY published_utc DESC
    LIMIT 12
)
ORDER BY published_utc ASC
自己运行这个查询

《Motley Fool》在午后发布的美光(14:11 ET)文章,标题为“Why Micron Stock Is Plummeting Today”。该媒体在晚间综述(17:12 ET)及四分钟后发布的后续文章(17:16 ET)中,都将 META 的上涨与一项已报道的计划联系起来,即将过剩的 AI 算力作为云业务出售。这是该媒体的叙述框架,并非行情记录得出的结论;来自两家出版商的 12 篇文章,代表的是一个新闻源受到的关注度,而不是整个市场的关注度。

资金交易流向

查询成交量领先者(两种口径):成交额前6名、成交股数前4名(1个重复代码因实体待核验而排除)
股票代码排行榜美元成交额(十亿)美元价值(百万)股数(百万)占榜首百分比
MUby dollars traded42.94None40.6100
SPYby dollars traded27.76None37.264.6
QQQby dollars traded25.24None34.758.8
METAby dollars traded22.72None36.952.9
NVDAby dollars traded21.73None110.450.6
SNDKby dollars traded18.38None8.942.8
SOXSby shares traded2.05None553.1100
TZAby shares traded0.87867230.441.7
BITOby shares traded1.84None227.141.1
LHAIby shares traded0.32319189.834.3
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT ticker, leaderboard, dollar_volume_bn, if(dollar_volume_bn < 1, dollar_volume_m, NULL) AS dollar_value_m, shares_m,
    round(100 * if(leaderboard = 'by dollars traded', dollar_volume_bn, shares_m)
        / max(if(leaderboard = 'by dollars traded', dollar_volume_bn, shares_m)) OVER (PARTITION BY leaderboard), 1) AS pct_of_board_leader
FROM (
    SELECT
        'by dollars traded' AS leaderboard,
        ticker,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS dollar_volume_bn,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 0) AS dollar_volume_m,
        round(sum(toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    GROUP BY ticker
    ORDER BY dollar_volume_bn DESC
    LIMIT 6
    UNION ALL
    SELECT
        'by shares traded' AS leaderboard,
        ticker,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS dollar_volume_bn,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 0) AS dollar_volume_m,
        round(sum(toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    GROUP BY ticker
    ORDER BY shares_m DESC
    LIMIT 4
)
ORDER BY leaderboard ASC, if(leaderboard = 'by dollars traded', dollar_volume_bn, shares_m) DESC
自己运行这个查询

MU成交额以 $42.94 billion 居首,SPY以$27.76 billion排名第二,META以$22.72 billion排名第四。META股价下跌,但成交额比该指数基金高出一半。涨跌幅最大的股票也是成交最活跃的股票。

股票成交量榜单一如既往地像哈哈镜:三倍反向半导体ETF SOXS以553.1 million股居首,芯片股大跌当天成交最活跃;一只低价股以189.8 million股、价值$319 million的成交量收尾(相对成交量正好标示了这一点)。口径:7月1日正常交易时段,剔除一个重复使用的股票代码上市记录(存托凭证)。

期权交易明细

查询整个期权交易日一行概览:成交量、当日到期、看跌/看涨偏度及最活跃合约
期权成交笔数(百万)合约数(百万)看涨期权成交量占比看跌看涨比当日到期占比7月2日(周四)到期合约数(百万)7月3日(周五)到期成交笔数SPY看跌合约数(百万)低于SPY 2%的看跌期权占比高于SPY 2%的看涨期权占比MU看跌看涨比META看跌看涨比最大合约标的最大合约行权价最大合约类型最大合约成交量最大合约成交量格式最大合约平均价格最大合约是否当日到期最大行权价减SPY收盘价SPY收盘价
11.2268.4658.60.7133.514.4305.7611.63.71.110.39SPY748C878947878,9470.70712.31745.69
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH
    (
        SELECT (any(underlying_symbol), any(toFloat64(strike_price)), any(option_type),
                sum(size), round(avg(toFloat64(price)), 3),
                any(if(substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260701', 1, 0)))
        FROM global_markets.options_trades
        WHERE sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-02 00:00:00'
        GROUP BY ticker
        ORDER BY sum(size) DESC, ticker ASC
        LIMIT 1
    ) AS top_contract,
    (
        SELECT round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2)
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
    ) AS spy_regular_close
SELECT
    round(count() / 1e6, 2) AS option_prints_m,
    round(toFloat64(sum(size)) / 1e6, 2) AS contracts_m,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, option_type = 'C') / sum(size), 1) AS call_pct_of_volume,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(size), option_type = 'P') / sumIf(toFloat64(size), option_type = 'C'), 2) AS put_call_ratio,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260701') / sum(size), 1) AS same_day_expiry_pct,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260702')) / 1e6, 2) AS thu_jul2_expiry_contracts_m,
    countIf(substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260703') AS fri_jul3_expiry_prints,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY' AND option_type = 'P')) / 1e6, 2) AS spy_put_contracts_m,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY' AND option_type = 'P' AND toFloat64(strike_price) < spy_regular_close * 0.98)
        / sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY' AND option_type = 'P'), 1) AS spy_puts_2pct_below_pct,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY' AND option_type = 'C' AND toFloat64(strike_price) > spy_regular_close * 1.02)
        / sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY' AND option_type = 'C'), 1) AS spy_calls_2pct_above_pct,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(size), underlying_symbol = 'MU' AND option_type = 'P')
        / sumIf(toFloat64(size), underlying_symbol = 'MU' AND option_type = 'C'), 2) AS mu_put_call_ratio,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(size), underlying_symbol = 'META' AND option_type = 'P')
        / sumIf(toFloat64(size), underlying_symbol = 'META' AND option_type = 'C'), 2) AS meta_put_call_ratio,
    top_contract.1 AS top_contract_underlying,
    top_contract.2 AS top_contract_strike,
    top_contract.3 AS top_contract_type,
    top_contract.4 AS top_contract_volume,
    reverse(arrayStringConcat(extractAll(reverse(toString(assumeNotNull(top_contract.4))), '\\d{1,3}'), ',')) AS top_contract_volume_fmt,
    round(top_contract.5, 3) AS top_contract_avg_price,
    top_contract.6 AS top_contract_is_same_day,
    round(top_contract.2 - spy_regular_close, 2) AS top_strike_minus_spy_close,
    spy_regular_close AS spy_close
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-02 00:00:00'
自己运行这个查询

期权成交量为 68.46百万张合约,对应 11.22百万笔成交记录。看涨期权占成交量的 58.6%,当日到期期权占 33.5%。全市场并没有针对指数进行对冲:看跌期权与看涨期权的比例为 0.71;SPY的 5.76百万张看跌期权中,只有 11.6%的执行价低于其 745.69收盘价超过2%,也就是能够在市场崩跌时带来收益的深度虚值执行价。偏斜主要集中在个股期权中:Micron的看跌期权多于看涨期权,每张看涨期权对应 1.11张看跌期权;META的看涨期权则明显多于看跌期权,比例超过二比一(0.39)。成交最活跃的合约是当日到期的SPY $748看涨期权,成交 878,947张合约,平均价格为$0.707,到期时距离虚值状态还有 2.31美元,正如周二的合约一样。7月3日到期的期权全天没有成交(0笔成交记录;当日为周五,市场休市);周四到期的周度期权成交量为 14.43百万张。

利率:整体走高,短端下行

收益率为相对6月30日的每日收盘值。

查询美国国债收益率曲线:7月1日收盘较6月30日(仅列有数据的期限)
曲线点7月1日收益率(%)单日变动(基点)
1 month3.67-3
3 month3.85-2
1 year42
2 year4.173
5 year4.245
10 year4.484
30 year4.976
2s10s spread0.311
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    t.1 AS curve_point,
    round(t.2, 2) AS jul1_yield_pct,
    round((t.2 - t.3) * 100) AS one_day_change_bp
FROM (
    SELECT arrayJoin([
        ('1 month',  toFloat64(d.yield_1_month),  toFloat64(p.yield_1_month)),
        ('3 month',  toFloat64(d.yield_3_month),  toFloat64(p.yield_3_month)),
        ('1 year',   toFloat64(d.yield_1_year),   toFloat64(p.yield_1_year)),
        ('2 year',   toFloat64(d.yield_2_year),   toFloat64(p.yield_2_year)),
        ('5 year',   toFloat64(d.yield_5_year),   toFloat64(p.yield_5_year)),
        ('10 year',  toFloat64(d.yield_10_year),  toFloat64(p.yield_10_year)),
        ('30 year',  toFloat64(d.yield_30_year),  toFloat64(p.yield_30_year)),
        ('2s10s spread', toFloat64(d.yield_10_year - d.yield_2_year), toFloat64(p.yield_10_year - p.yield_2_year))
    ]) AS t
    FROM (SELECT * FROM global_markets.treasury_yields WHERE date = '2026-07-01') AS d,
         (SELECT * FROM global_markets.treasury_yields WHERE date = '2026-06-30') AS p
)
自己运行这个查询

10年期收益率上升4个基点至4.48%,30年期上升6个基点;1个月期国库券收益率变动-3个基点。中端和长端上行,短端下行。2s10s利差收于0.31个百分点:这里的走势与股票市场的分化并不一致。

日历刻画的交易日

查询7月1日公司日历与信息流,一行概览
除息记录月度派息股季度派息股月度派息比例已执行拆股已上市 IPOSEC 文件内部人士 Form 4 文件8-K 文件IPO 名称新闻文章新闻发布商报道最多的股票代码报道最多的文章
74657212376.79342831072248BSP — Bending Spoons S.p.A.; ITG — ITG Inc.; LIME — Neutron Holdings Inc.2013MSFT16
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH
    (
        SELECT (count(), uniqExact(publisher))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')) = '2026-07-01'
    ) AS news,
    (
        SELECT (argMax(t, n), max(n))
        FROM (
            SELECT t, count() AS n
            FROM (
                SELECT arrayJoin(tickers) AS t
                FROM global_markets.stocks_news
                WHERE toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')) = '2026-07-01'
            )
            WHERE t != 'SPCX'
            GROUP BY t
        )
    ) AS top_news
SELECT
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-01') AS ex_dividend_records,
    (SELECT countIf(frequency = 12) FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-01') AS monthly_payers,
    (SELECT countIf(frequency = 4) FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-01') AS quarterly_payers,
    (SELECT round(100.0 * countIf(frequency = 12) / count(), 1) FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-01') AS monthly_payer_pct,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_splits WHERE execution_date = '2026-07-01') AS splits_executed,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos WHERE listing_date = '2026-07-01') AS ipos_listed,
    (SELECT uniqExact(accession_number) FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = '2026-07-01') AS sec_filings,
    (SELECT uniqExactIf(accession_number, form_type = '4') FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = '2026-07-01') AS insider_form4_filings,
    (SELECT uniqExactIf(accession_number, form_type = '8-K') FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = '2026-07-01') AS filings_8k,
    (SELECT arrayStringConcat(groupArray(concat(ticker, ' — ', issuer_name)), '; ') FROM (
        SELECT ticker, issuer_name FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos WHERE listing_date = '2026-07-01' ORDER BY ticker
    )) AS ipo_names,
    news.1 AS news_articles,
    news.2 AS news_publishers,
    top_news.1 AS most_covered_ticker,
    top_news.2 AS most_covered_articles
自己运行这个查询

本季度的转折点在这里达到高峰:746笔股息记录进入除息状态。这正是六月回顾所关注的浪潮,此外还有9次拆分和3宗上市(BSP — Bending Spoons S.p.A.; ITG — ITG Inc.; LIME — Neutron Holdings Inc.)。申报信息流也恢复活跃:共有4283份申报,其中1072份为Form 4248份为8-K。此前,6月30日的指数在月末交易日几乎没有记录(月末缺口说明)。我们的信息流收录了201篇文章,报道最多的是MSFT,达到16

但数量无法说明究竟是谁在进行交易。按成交金额排名后,榜单完全不是公司股票:

查询7月1日除息的最大型股票,按当日美元成交额排名
股票代码每股现金每年派息次数日收盘价占价格比例年化收益率日成交额(十亿美元)
SGOV0.295812100.40.293.543.5
HYG0.36881279.620.465.562.77
LQD0.381512108.460.354.222.57
TLT0.3181285.520.374.462.01
BITO0.0104128.140.131.531.84
BND0.24451273.040.334.021.51
BIL0.26761291.390.293.511.47
VCIT0.33191282.180.44.850.93
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
WITH divs AS (
    SELECT ticker, max(toFloat64(cash_amount)) AS cash, max(frequency) AS freq
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-01' AND distribution_type = 'recurring'
    GROUP BY ticker
),
tape AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) AS dollar_volume,
           toFloat64(argMax(close, (window_start, close))) AS day_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    d.ticker AS ticker,
    round(d.cash, 4) AS cash_per_share,
    d.freq AS payments_per_year,
    round(t.day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round(100 * d.cash / t.day_close, 2) AS pct_of_price,
    round(100 * d.cash * d.freq / t.day_close, 2) AS annualized_yield_pct,
    round(t.dollar_volume / 1e9, 2) AS day_dollar_bn
FROM divs d JOIN tape t ON d.ticker = t.ticker
WHERE t.dollar_volume > 0 AND d.cash > 0
ORDER BY t.dollar_volume DESC
LIMIT 8
自己运行这个查询

成交最活跃的八只除息ticker全部是每年派息12次的基金:SGOV是一只国库券基金,按每股$0.2958进入除息状态(相当于价格的0.29%,年化为3.54%),成交金额为$3.5 billion;HYG是一只高收益债券基金,除息价格为$0.3688。这是月初集中除息的一波行情:当日746笔记录中,有572笔(76.7%)来自按月派息的基金,这些基金分配利息;相比之下,按季派息的基金有123笔。除息日的下跌是机械性调整,并不代表亏损。

季度首日真的会是普通的一天吗?

这种叙事似乎顺理成章:新季度、新资金、新配置。但数据库并不认同。

查询自2004年以来每个季度首个交易日:SPY开盘至收盘变动,含7月1日排名
已测量季度开盘数季度开盘中位数上涨季度开盘数下跌季度开盘数7 月 1 日开收盘比例7 月 1 日排名(最差至最佳)最差季度开盘表现最佳季度开盘表现首次测量时间
910.0146450.0950-2.283.18January 2004
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    count() AS quarter_opens_measured,
    round(quantileExact(0.5)(oc_pct), 2) AS median_quarter_open_pct,
    countIf(oc_pct > 0) AS quarter_opens_green,
    countIf(oc_pct <= 0) AS quarter_opens_red,
    round(anyIf(oc_pct, first_day = toDate('2026-07-01')), 2) AS jul1_oc_pct,
    arrayCount(x -> x < anyIf(oc_pct, first_day = toDate('2026-07-01')), groupArrayIf(oc_pct, first_day != toDate('2026-07-01'))) + 1 AS jul1_rank_worst_to_best,
    round(min(oc_pct), 2) AS worst_quarter_open_pct,
    round(max(oc_pct), 2) AS best_quarter_open_pct,
    concat(monthName(min(first_day)), ' ', toString(toYear(min(first_day)))) AS first_measured
FROM (
    SELECT f.first_day AS first_day, d.oc_pct AS oc_pct
    FROM (
        SELECT toStartOfQuarter(d) AS q, min(d) AS first_day
        FROM (
            SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d
            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
            WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
              AND window_start >= toDateTime('2004-01-01 00:00:00')
              AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00')
              AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
            GROUP BY d
        )
        GROUP BY q
    ) f
    INNER JOIN (
        SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
               (argMax(toFloat64(close), (window_start, close)) / argMin(toFloat64(open), (window_start, open)) - 1) * 100 AS oc_pct
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2004-01-01 00:00:00')
          AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00')
          AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
        GROUP BY d
    ) d ON d.d = f.first_day
)
自己运行这个查询

在自January 2004年以来的91个季度开盘交易日中,SPY在季度首日的开盘至收盘变动中位数为0.01%,其中46次上涨、45次下跌,区间为-2.28%至3.18%:结果近似抛硬币,只是带有四舍五入误差。7月1日录得0.09%,在从最差到最佳的91个交易日中排名第50,正好处于中间位置。计算口径:数据库中每个季度首个交易日的SPY正常交易时段开盘至收盘表现。

读者在当天收盘后应把握的要点

该指数下跌了 0.09%;八只股票组成的样本区间为 -10.45% 至 8.88%;保护性仓位的定价几乎没有变化。这是集中型市场的常规算术:一个行业的损失由 11 个其他行业中的 7 个行业的上涨所抵消,最终反映在指数净值上的就是这一结果。从指数层面观察,这一天几乎看不出异常;从持仓层面观察,则意味着单日损失了十分之一的仓位价值。

已核实的交易时段

查询交易时段检查:SPY观测到的分钟K线区间
SPY 首根 K 线(ET)SPY 末根 K 线(ET)SPY 分钟 K 线常规交易时段 K 线交易日时段7 月 1 日假日记录
04:0019:5989339010
每个数字背后的完整 SQL
SELECT
    formatDateTime(min(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), '%H:%i') AS first_spy_bar_et,
    formatDateTime(max(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), '%H:%i') AS last_spy_bar_et,
    count() AS spy_minute_bars,
    countIf(window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00') AS regular_session_bars,
    uniqExactIf(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00') AS day_sessions,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_market_holidays WHERE date = '2026-07-01') AS jul1_holiday_rows
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 00:00:00'
自己运行这个查询

SPY的K线时间范围为纽约时间04:0019:59,其中包括390根常规交易时段K线,以及当日0条假日记录。完整交易时段已通过逐笔成交记录核实。

常见问题

2026年7月1日股市上涨还是下跌?

取决于观察哪个市场。SPY收于-0.08%,DIA收于0.02%,QQQ收于-1.44%;3465只股票下跌,而2928只股票上涨。不过,711行业基金收盘上涨,科技板块是例外。

2026年7月1日,为什么Micron、SanDisk、Western Digital和Seagate都下跌?

这些数据反映的是联动关系,而不是因果关系。这四只股票的跌幅介于-5.11%和-10.45%之间。《Motley Fool》当天关于Micron的报道(本页新闻面板中的14:11 ET)使用了标题“Why Micron Stock Is Plummeting Today”。这是该媒体的表述,并非盘面数据得出的结论。

2026年7月1日,META为什么上涨?

META收高8.88%,开盘首根K线触及当日低点。《Motley Fool》的报道将这波上涨归因于相关报告:该公司计划将过剩的AI算力作为云业务出售。这是该媒体的归因,不代表我们的判断。

一个季度的第一个交易日通常表现强劲吗?

从数据看并非如此。在自January 2004以来的91个季度开盘日中,SPY开盘至收盘的涨跌幅中位数为0.01%:46次上涨,45次下跌,基本相当于五五开。7月1日的表现处于中游。

2026年7月1日,期权市场是否在对冲这轮抛售?

从指数层面看并没有:全市场看跌期权与看涨期权的比例为0.71;SPY的看跌期权成交量中,只有11.6%的行权价低于收盘价超过两个百分点。

数据说明

  • 美元成交额是每分钟的代理指标:按分钟K线计算收盘价乘成交量,并在常规交易时段内汇总。显示的极值已与相邻K线交叉核对;若数值相同,则取最早出现的记录。
  • 这里没有现货VIX指数。 波动率面板显示的是上市的VIX期货基金。这些基金持有并滚动期货合约,与该指数相关,但并不等同于该指数。
  • 季度新高/新低:将7月1日常规交易时段的极值与各标的4月1日至6月30日的区间进行比较。比较对象为拥有完整季度K线且流动性较高的标的;跌幅显示在该面板中。
  • 行业板块是经过筛选的篮子(包含11只SPDR ETF,并非供应商字段);新闻面板使用一个授权信息源12篇文章,来自两家出版商);一个重复使用的ticker listing已从排行榜中排除(其收据)。

方法说明

  • 一个交易时段(1时段;根据实际观测到的K线和假日表核实,绝不臆定)。时间戳以UTC存储,并在查询中转换为纽约时间;“收盘价”指常规交易时段最后一分钟的K线,日变化相对于6月30日计算。
  • 小数在进行比率计算前转换为64位浮点数;期权到期日重新从OCC代码中解析。所有面板均在撰写时通过受限只读路径运行一次。数据仓库状态截至2026年7月13日;本版本新增行业、波动率、新闻、股息和季度历史面板。

每个面板都包含一个已存储的查询结果、图表和表格,SQL与这三者属于同一对象。您可以将其中任何一项粘贴到Strasmore终端中。下一篇:7月2日;本周:假日周】【。