Strasmore Research
Muhtasari wa soko Matt ConnorNa Matt Connor · Imeboreshwa 2026-07-25

soko la hisa Julai 1 2026 muhtasari

Nusu ya pili ilifunguka kwa utulivu kwenye fahirisi lakini misukosuko chini: kundi la kumbukumbu lilivunjika, META iliruka, na sekta nyingi za S&P bado zilifunga kwa kijani.

Jumatano, Julai 1, 2026 — kikao cha kwanza cha nusu ya pili ya mwaka — kiliweka siku moja ya utulivu zaidi wa fahirisi mwezi huo juu ya biashara yenye misukosuko zaidi. SPY ilifunga -0.08% na QQQ -1.44%, lakini mkusanyiko wa kumbukumbu uliobeba robo ya pili ulipoteza sehemu ya kumi ya thamani yake, META iliruka 8.88%, na 7 kati ya 11 za fedha za sekta za S&P bado zilifunga kwa kijani. Kikao kilichotangulia: Juni 30.

Ubao wa matokeo

Mabadiliko yanalinganisha mwisho wa kipindi cha kawaida cha Julai 1 na Jumanne Juni 30.

UlizaSPY / QQQ / DIA / IWM — Julai 1 dhidi ya kufunga Juni 30, saa za kawaida
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH prior AS (
    SELECT ticker, argMax(close, window_start) AS prior_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'QQQ', 'DIA', 'IWM')
      AND window_start >= '2026-06-30 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-30 20:00:00'
    GROUP BY ticker
),
sess AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           argMin(open, window_start) AS day_open,
           argMax(close, window_start) AS day_close,
           max(high) AS day_high,
           min(low) AS day_low,
           round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_traded_m
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'QQQ', 'DIA', 'IWM')
      AND window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    s.ticker AS ticker,
    round(toFloat64(p.prior_close), 2) AS prior_close,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_open), 2) AS day_open,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_close), 2) AS day_close,
    round((toFloat64(s.day_close) / toFloat64(p.prior_close) - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_change,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_high), 2) AS day_high,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_low), 2) AS day_low,
    s.shares_traded_m AS shares_traded_m
FROM sess s
JOIN prior p ON s.ticker = p.ticker
ORDER BY s.ticker

Mgawanyiko ndio simulizi: DIA 0.02% na SPY -0.08% zilisimama bila mabadiliko dhidi ya -1.44% ya QQQ na -0.37% ya IWM — mauzo ya ukuaji ambayo soko pana halikuyahisi.

Moja ya siku tulivu zaidi za fahirisi katika mwezi uliopita

UlizaMabadiliko ya wazi hadi kufunga ya SPY yaliyoorodheshwa dhidi ya mwezi uliopita wa vikao (nafasi 1 = mabadiliko makubwa kabisa)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT round(anyIf(oc_pct, d = toDate('2026-07-01')), 2) AS day_move_pct,
       arrayCount(x -> x > abs(anyIf(oc_pct, d = toDate('2026-07-01'))), groupArrayIf(abs(oc_pct), d != toDate('2026-07-01'))) + 1 AS abs_move_rank,
       count() AS sessions_compared,
       toString(min(d)) AS first_session
FROM (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           (argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) / argMin(toFloat64(open), window_start) - 1) * 100 AS oc_pct
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-01 00:00:00')
      AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00')
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    GROUP BY d
)

Kutoka kwa ufunguzi hadi kufunga ndani ya kikao — lenzi tofauti na ubao wa alama wa kufunga-kwa-kufunga — SPY ilisogea 0.09%: cheo 20 kati ya 22 vikao vilivyopita kwa ukubwa kamili, vikao viwili tu vikisogea kidogo zaidi. Kundi la tete lilikubaliana. Ghala hili halina fahirisi ya VIX ya papo hapo, kwa hivyo ukaguzi unaendeshwa kwenye fedha za siku zijazo za VIX zilizoorodheshwa — usomaji wa karibu zaidi unaoweza kuuzwa wa bei ya ulinzi:

UlizaMchanganyiko wa tete Julai 1: ETFs za VIX-futures dhidi ya kufunga Jumanne, na SPY kama nanga
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH per_name AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_low
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'SVXY', 'UVXY', 'VIXY', 'VXX')
      AND ((window_start >= '2026-06-30 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-30 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'))
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_chg,
    round((day_high / day_low - 1) * 100, 2) AS range_pct
FROM per_name
ORDER BY ticker

VXX, mfuko mkubwa zaidi wa siku zijazo za VIX wa mwezi wa mbele, ulipanda 0.72%; VIXY 0.8%; UVXY iliyokopeshwa 1.13% katika safu ya 3.68%; SVXY ya kinyume -0.42%. Makosa ya kuzungusha pembeni mwa yale ambayo hisa moja moja zilifanya.

Upana: zaidi zilishuka kuliko zilipanda — na zaidi zilifanya viwango vipya vya juu kuliko viwango vipya vya chini

UlizaWapandaji, washuka, na viwango vipya vya juu vya robo mwaka dhidi ya viwango vya chini miongoni mwa ticker zenye angalau $1M zilizouzwa Julai 1
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH per_ticker AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS quarter_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS quarter_low,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_low,
        sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_dollar_volume,
        countIf(window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS quarter_bars
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ((window_start >= '2026-04-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-30 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'))
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    countIf(day_close > prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS advancers,
    countIf(day_close < prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS decliners,
    countIf(day_close = prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS unchanged,
    round(100.0 * countIf(day_close > prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000)
        / countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000), 1) AS advancer_pct,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars >= 1000 AND day_high > quarter_high) AS new_quarter_highs,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars >= 1000 AND day_low < quarter_low) AS new_quarter_lows,
    round(countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars >= 1000 AND day_high > quarter_high)
        / countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars >= 1000 AND day_low < quarter_low), 1) AS highs_per_low,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars >= 1000) AS names_with_a_full_quarter,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS liquid_tickers,
    count() AS tickers_traded_both_sessions,
    count() - countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS dropped_by_liquidity_filter,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000 AND quarter_bars < 1000) AS dropped_short_quarter_history
FROM per_ticker
WHERE prior_close > 0 AND day_close > 0

2928 walioongezeka, 3465 walioshuka, 82 wasiobadilika — 45.2% ya tape ya kioevu ilipanda. Lakini wigo si ukali: dhidi ya safu ya saa za kawaida za robo ya pili, 836 ya 6217 majina yenye robo kamili ya biashara yalichapisha kiwango kipya cha juu cha robo mwaka siku hii nyekundu, dhidi ya 246 yaliyochapisha kiwango kipya cha chini — 3.4 viwango vipya vya juu kwa kila kiwango kipya cha chini. Wengi waliteleza; wachache walivunja safu yao. Kushuka: 5435 ya 11910 ticker za vipindi viwili chini ya kichujio cha $1 milioni, 258 majina ya kioevu bila robo kamili ya baa.

Bodi ya sekta: uharibifu ulikuwa sekta moja tu

Mifuko kumi na moja ya SPDR ya sekta ndiyo sehemu nzima ya soko yenye bei nafuu zaidi — kikapu kile kile katika kila kikao.

UlizaETFs kumi na moja za sekta ya S&P Julai 1, bora hadi mbaya zaidi dhidi ya kufunga Jumanne
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH per_name AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') / 1e9, 2) AS day_dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('XLB', 'XLC', 'XLE', 'XLF', 'XLI', 'XLK', 'XLP', 'XLRE', 'XLU', 'XLV', 'XLY')
      AND ((window_start >= '2026-06-30 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-30 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'))
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_chg,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100 - min((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100) OVER (), 2) AS pct_above_worst_sector,
    sum(if(day_close > prior_close, 1, 0)) OVER (ORDER BY (day_close / prior_close) DESC ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS green_so_far,
    day_dollar_bn
FROM per_name
ORDER BY pct_chg DESC

Huduma za mawasiliano (XLC) — mfuko wa sekta unaomiliki META — uliongoza kwa 2.41%, fedha (XLF) nyuma kwa 2.2%. Teknolojia (XLK) ilikaa peke yake chini, -2.56% na 4.97 asilimia chini ya kiongozi. Kwa jumla, 7 kati ya 11 mifuko ilifunga kijani — hiari 0.68%, afya 0.57% — dhidi ya huduma (-1.28%), viwanda (-0.98%) na nishati (-0.6%) zikiwa nyekundu. Hiyo ndiyo "fahirisi haikusogea sana" kutoka chini.

Kile kilichovutia siku hii: kumbukumbu ilivunjika, META ikaenda upande mwingine

Majina manane yalibeba mtawanyiko: manne ya hisa za kumbukumbu na uhifadhi yaliyoongoza robo ya pili, na manne ya hisa za chip na mifumo iliyozunguka. Mwendo wa pamoja, ukubwa na wakati vimeripotiwa; data haisemi kwa nini.

UlizaMchanganyiko wa kumbukumbu na megacaps: mabadiliko dhidi ya kufunga Jumanne, muda wa anuwai, na kiasi cha dola
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH per_name AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS day_low,
        argMinIf(window_start, (toFloat64(low), toInt64(toUnixTimestamp(window_start))), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS low_bar,
        argMaxIf(window_start, (toFloat64(high), -toInt64(toUnixTimestamp(window_start))), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') AS high_bar,
        round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00') / 1e9, 2) AS day_dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('AMD', 'META', 'MRVL', 'MU', 'NVDA', 'SNDK', 'STX', 'WDC')
      AND ((window_start >= '2026-06-30 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-30 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'))
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_chg,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(high_bar, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS day_high_et,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(low_bar, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS day_low_et,
    toHour(toTimeZone(low_bar, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(low_bar, 'America/New_York')) AS low_minute_et,
    round((day_high / day_low - 1) * 100, 2) AS range_pct,
    day_dollar_bn
FROM per_name
ORDER BY ticker

SanDisk (-10.45%) na Micron (-10.23%) kila moja ilipoteza zaidi ya sehemu moja kati ya kumi ya thamani yake; Marvell -8.68%, AMD -6.87%, Western Digital -6.3%, Seagate -5.11%. MU iligeuza $42.94 bilioni, zaidi ya SPY iliyofanya biashara siku nzima, na MU, AMD na Marvell kila moja ilichapisha viwango vya chini vya kikao katika dakika za mwisho (15:59, 15:57, 15:58 ET) — ikiuzwa kwenye mnada wa kufunga, si pengo la asubuhi lililopona (uchambuzi wa kina wa MU una robo nyuma yake).

META ni kioo kinyume: 8.88% kwa $22.72 bilioni zilizouzwa, kiwango chake cha chini kikiwa 09:30 ET — mwanya wa ufunguzi — na hakijarejelewa tena. NVDA haikwenda popote kwa -1.09% (Juni ya NVDA).

Ilichosemwa

Ukurasa huu haukabidhi sababu kamwe. Lakini mfumo wetu wa habari wenye leseni ni jedwali kama nyingine — kile kilichobebwa siku hiyo:

UlizaHabari kumi na mbili za mwisho za siku zinazotaja MU, SNDK, STX, WDC au META (lisho moja lenye leseni)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT published_et, publisher, names_tagged, headline
FROM (
    SELECT
        published_utc,
        formatDateTime(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS published_et,
        JSONExtractString(publisher, 'name') AS publisher,
        arrayStringConcat(arrayFilter(x -> x IN ('MU', 'SNDK', 'STX', 'WDC', 'META'), tickers), ' ') AS names_tagged,
        substring(title, 1, 72) AS headline
    FROM global_markets.stocks_news
    WHERE published_utc >= '2026-07-01 04:00:00' AND published_utc < '2026-07-02 04:00:00'
      AND hasAny(tickers, ['MU', 'SNDK', 'STX', 'WDC', 'META'])
      AND NOT has(tickers, 'SPCX')
      AND position(title, 'SPCX') = 0
    ORDER BY published_utc DESC
    LIMIT 12
)
ORDER BY published_utc ASC

Makala ya mchana ya Motley Fool kuhusu Micron (14:11 ET) ilichapishwa chini ya kichwa cha habari "Why Micron Stock Is Plummeting Today". Muhtasari wake wa jioni (17:12 ET) na ufuatiliaji dakika nne baadaye (17:16 ET) wote waliweka kuruka kwa META kando ya mpango ulioripotiwa wa kuuza uwezo wa ziada wa AI kama biashara ya wingu. Huo ni mtazamo wa tovuti hiyo, si matokeo katika kumbukumbu, na 12 makala kutoka kwa wachapishaji wawili ni umakini wa mfumo mmoja, si wa soko.

Ambapo fedha zilifanyika biashara

UlizaViongozi wa kiasi kwa njia mbili: 6 bora kwa dola zilizouzwa, 4 bora kwa hisa zilizouzwa (orodhesha moja ya alama iliyotumiwa tena imetengwa kusubiri uthibitishaji wa chombo)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT ticker, leaderboard, dollar_volume_bn, if(dollar_volume_bn < 1, dollar_volume_m, NULL) AS dollar_value_m, shares_m,
    round(100 * if(leaderboard = 'by dollars traded', dollar_volume_bn, shares_m)
        / max(if(leaderboard = 'by dollars traded', dollar_volume_bn, shares_m)) OVER (PARTITION BY leaderboard), 1) AS pct_of_board_leader
FROM (
    SELECT
        'by dollars traded' AS leaderboard,
        ticker,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS dollar_volume_bn,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 0) AS dollar_volume_m,
        round(sum(toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    GROUP BY ticker
    ORDER BY dollar_volume_bn DESC
    LIMIT 6
    UNION ALL
    SELECT
        'by shares traded' AS leaderboard,
        ticker,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS dollar_volume_bn,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 0) AS dollar_volume_m,
        round(sum(toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    GROUP BY ticker
    ORDER BY shares_m DESC
    LIMIT 4
)
ORDER BY leaderboard ASC, if(leaderboard = 'by dollars traded', dollar_volume_bn, shares_m) DESC

$42.94 bilioni ya MU iliongoza kwenye tape — SPY ikiwa ya pili kwa $27.76 bilioni, META ikiwa ya nne kwa $22.72 bilioni — hisa iliyokuwa ikishuka ikifanya biashara zaidi ya index fund kwa nusu mara nyingine. Mwisho wa mwendo ulikuwa majina yenye sauti kubwa zaidi juu yake. Ubao wa hisa ni kioo cha kawaida cha burudani: SOXS, ETF ya 3x-inverse semiconductor, iliongoza kwa 553.1 milioni hisa — ikiwa na shughuli nyingi zaidi siku chips zilipovunjika — wakati jina la bei ya chini linakamilisha kwa 189.8 milioni hisa zenye thamani ya $319 milioni (kiasi cha jamaa kinaashiria hili hasa). Msingi: Saa za kawaida za Julai 1, orodha moja ya ishara iliyotumiwa tena haijajumuishwa (risiti).

Mkanda wa chaguzi

UlizaSafu moja kwa siku nzima ya chaguzi: kiasi, muda wake wa kuisha siku hiyo, mwelekeo wa put/call, na mkataba wenye shughuli nyingi
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH
    (
        SELECT (any(underlying_symbol), any(toFloat64(strike_price)), any(option_type),
                sum(size), round(avg(toFloat64(price)), 3),
                any(if(substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260701', 1, 0)))
        FROM global_markets.options_trades
        WHERE sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-02 00:00:00'
        GROUP BY ticker
        ORDER BY sum(size) DESC, ticker ASC
        LIMIT 1
    ) AS top_contract,
    (
        SELECT round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2)
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
    ) AS spy_regular_close
SELECT
    round(count() / 1e6, 2) AS option_prints_m,
    round(toFloat64(sum(size)) / 1e6, 2) AS contracts_m,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, option_type = 'C') / sum(size), 1) AS call_pct_of_volume,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(size), option_type = 'P') / sumIf(toFloat64(size), option_type = 'C'), 2) AS put_call_ratio,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260701') / sum(size), 1) AS same_day_expiry_pct,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260702')) / 1e6, 2) AS thu_jul2_expiry_contracts_m,
    countIf(substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260703') AS fri_jul3_expiry_prints,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY' AND option_type = 'P')) / 1e6, 2) AS spy_put_contracts_m,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY' AND option_type = 'P' AND toFloat64(strike_price) < spy_regular_close * 0.98)
        / sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY' AND option_type = 'P'), 1) AS spy_puts_2pct_below_pct,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY' AND option_type = 'C' AND toFloat64(strike_price) > spy_regular_close * 1.02)
        / sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY' AND option_type = 'C'), 1) AS spy_calls_2pct_above_pct,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(size), underlying_symbol = 'MU' AND option_type = 'P')
        / sumIf(toFloat64(size), underlying_symbol = 'MU' AND option_type = 'C'), 2) AS mu_put_call_ratio,
    round(sumIf(toFloat64(size), underlying_symbol = 'META' AND option_type = 'P')
        / sumIf(toFloat64(size), underlying_symbol = 'META' AND option_type = 'C'), 2) AS meta_put_call_ratio,
    top_contract.1 AS top_contract_underlying,
    top_contract.2 AS top_contract_strike,
    top_contract.3 AS top_contract_type,
    top_contract.4 AS top_contract_volume,
    reverse(arrayStringConcat(extractAll(reverse(toString(assumeNotNull(top_contract.4))), '\\d{1,3}'), ',')) AS top_contract_volume_fmt,
    round(top_contract.5, 3) AS top_contract_avg_price,
    top_contract.6 AS top_contract_is_same_day,
    round(top_contract.2 - spy_regular_close, 2) AS top_strike_minus_spy_close,
    spy_regular_close AS spy_close
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-02 00:00:00'

Chaguzi zilifanyika biashara 68.46 milioni mikataba katika 11.22 milioni chapa — chaguzi za kununua (calls) zilikuwa 58.6% ya kiasi, na chaguzi za muda wa siku moja 33.5%. Hakuna aliyekuwa akilinda index: 0.71 chaguzi za kuuza (puts) kwa kila call kote sokoni, na kati ya 5.76 milioni puts za SPY, ni 11.6% pekee zilizokuwa na bei ya utekelezaji zaidi ya asilimia mbili chini ya 745.69 kufunga kwake — hizo ni bei za mbali za chini ambazo hulipa wakati wa ajali. Mkengeuko ulikuwa kwenye hisa binafsi: Puts za Micron zilizidi calls zake (1.11 kwa kila call) huku calls za META zikizidi puts zake kwa zaidi ya mara mbili (0.39). Mkataba uliofanya biashara zaidi ulikuwa call ya SPY $748 ya siku moja — 878,947 mikataba kwa wastani wa $0.707 — ikimalizika 2.31 dola nje ya pesa, kama ilivyokuwa Jumanne iliyopita. Hakuna mkataba wa kumalizika Julai 3 uliochapishwa siku nzima (0 chapa — Ijumaa hiyo imefungwa); wiki ya Alhamisi ilichukua 14.43 milioni.

Viwango: kupanda kidogo, mwisho wa mbele kushuka

Mavuno ni kufunga kwa siku moja dhidi ya Juni 30.

UlizaMviringo wa Hazina, kufunga Julai 1 dhidi ya Juni 30 (muda uliojazwa tu)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    t.1 AS curve_point,
    round(t.2, 2) AS jul1_yield_pct,
    round((t.2 - t.3) * 100) AS one_day_change_bp
FROM (
    SELECT arrayJoin([
        ('1 month',  toFloat64(d.yield_1_month),  toFloat64(p.yield_1_month)),
        ('3 month',  toFloat64(d.yield_3_month),  toFloat64(p.yield_3_month)),
        ('1 year',   toFloat64(d.yield_1_year),   toFloat64(p.yield_1_year)),
        ('2 year',   toFloat64(d.yield_2_year),   toFloat64(p.yield_2_year)),
        ('5 year',   toFloat64(d.yield_5_year),   toFloat64(p.yield_5_year)),
        ('10 year',  toFloat64(d.yield_10_year),  toFloat64(p.yield_10_year)),
        ('30 year',  toFloat64(d.yield_30_year),  toFloat64(p.yield_30_year)),
        ('2s10s spread', toFloat64(d.yield_10_year - d.yield_2_year), toFloat64(p.yield_10_year - p.yield_2_year))
    ]) AS t
    FROM (SELECT * FROM global_markets.treasury_yields WHERE date = '2026-07-01') AS d,
         (SELECT * FROM global_markets.treasury_yields WHERE date = '2026-06-30') AS p
)

Muda wa miaka 10 uliongeza 4 pointi za msingi hadi 4.48% na miaka 30 6 pointi za msingi, wakati hati ya mwezi 1 ilisogea -3 pointi za msingi — sehemu ya kati na mwisho mrefu zikipanda, mwisho wa mbele ukishuka. 2s10s spread ilifunga kwa 0.31 asilimia: hakuna chochote hapa kilicholingana na mtawanyiko wa equities.

Kalenda nyuma ya siku hiyo

UlizaKalenda ya shirika na mtiririko wa habari Julai 1, katika safu moja
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH
    (
        SELECT (count(), uniqExact(publisher))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')) = '2026-07-01'
    ) AS news,
    (
        SELECT (argMax(t, n), max(n))
        FROM (
            SELECT t, count() AS n
            FROM (
                SELECT arrayJoin(tickers) AS t
                FROM global_markets.stocks_news
                WHERE toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')) = '2026-07-01'
            )
            WHERE t != 'SPCX'
            GROUP BY t
        )
    ) AS top_news
SELECT
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-01') AS ex_dividend_records,
    (SELECT countIf(frequency = 12) FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-01') AS monthly_payers,
    (SELECT countIf(frequency = 4) FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-01') AS quarterly_payers,
    (SELECT round(100.0 * countIf(frequency = 12) / count(), 1) FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-01') AS monthly_payer_pct,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_splits WHERE execution_date = '2026-07-01') AS splits_executed,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos WHERE listing_date = '2026-07-01') AS ipos_listed,
    (SELECT uniqExact(accession_number) FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = '2026-07-01') AS sec_filings,
    (SELECT uniqExactIf(accession_number, form_type = '4') FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = '2026-07-01') AS insider_form4_filings,
    (SELECT uniqExactIf(accession_number, form_type = '8-K') FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = '2026-07-01') AS filings_8k,
    (SELECT arrayStringConcat(groupArray(concat(ticker, ' — ', issuer_name)), '; ') FROM (
        SELECT ticker, issuer_name FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos WHERE listing_date = '2026-07-01' ORDER BY ticker
    )) AS ipo_names,
    news.1 AS news_articles,
    news.2 AS news_publishers,
    top_news.1 AS most_covered_ticker,
    top_news.2 AS most_covered_articles

Mzunguko wa robo mwaka ulifikia kilele hapa: 745 rekodi za gawio zilienda bila gawio — wimbi ambalo muhtasari wa Juni lilikuwa likiufuatilia — pamoja na 9 mgawanyiko na 3 orodha mpya (BSP — Bending Spoons S.p.A.; ITG — ITG Inc.; LIME — Neutron Holdings Inc.). Mfumo wa uwasilishaji ulianza tena: 4282 uwasilishaji, 1072 kati yao ni Fomu 4 na 248 ni 8-K, baada ya siku ya karibu tupu ya fahirisi Juni 30 (noti ya pengo la mwisho wa mwezi). Mfumo wetu ulibeba 201 makala, iliyofunikwa zaidi MSFT kwa 16.

Lakini hesabu haisemi chochote kuhusu nani alikuwa akilipa. Ikipangwa kwa fedha zilizofanya biashara ndani yake, bodi si ya kampuni hata kidogo:

UlizaMajina makubwa yanayotoka kwenye mgao Julai 1, yaliyoorodheshwa kwa kiasi cha dola cha siku hiyo
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH divs AS (
    SELECT ticker, max(toFloat64(cash_amount)) AS cash, max(frequency) AS freq
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-01' AND distribution_type = 'recurring'
    GROUP BY ticker
),
tape AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) AS dollar_volume,
           toFloat64(argMax(close, (window_start, close))) AS day_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    d.ticker AS ticker,
    round(d.cash, 4) AS cash_per_share,
    d.freq AS payments_per_year,
    round(t.day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round(100 * d.cash / t.day_close, 2) AS pct_of_price,
    round(100 * d.cash * d.freq / t.day_close, 2) AS annualized_yield_pct,
    round(t.dollar_volume / 1e9, 2) AS day_dollar_bn
FROM divs d JOIN tape t ON d.ticker = t.ticker
WHERE t.dollar_volume > 0 AND d.cash > 0
ORDER BY t.dollar_volume DESC
LIMIT 8

Kila moja kati ya ticker nane zenye shughuli nyingi zaidi za kutoka gawio ni hazina inayolipa mara 12 kwa mwaka: SGOV, hazina ya hati fungu za Hazina, ilitoka gawio kwa $0.2958 kwa hisa (0.29% ya bei, 3.54% kwa mwaka) kwa biashara ya $3.5 bilioni; HYG, hazina ya dhamana za mavuno ya juu, kwa $0.3688. Huo ni wimbi la kwanza wa mwezi: 572 kati ya rekodi 745 za siku hiyo (76.8%) ni walipaji wa kila mwezi — hazina zinazosambaza riba — dhidi ya 123 walipaji wa robo mwaka. Kushuka kwa tarehe ya kutoka gawio ni kiufundi, si hasara.

Je, siku ya kwanza ya robo mwaka huwa siku ya kawaida?

Muundo unajitokeza wenyewe: robo mwaka mpya, pesa mpya, ugawaji mpya. Hifadhidata inapingana.

UlizaKila kikao cha ufunguzi wa robo mwaka tangu 2004: mabadiliko ya wazi hadi kufunga ya SPY, na Julai 1 ikiwa imeorodheshwa ndani yake
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    count() AS quarter_opens_measured,
    round(quantileExact(0.5)(oc_pct), 2) AS median_quarter_open_pct,
    countIf(oc_pct > 0) AS quarter_opens_green,
    countIf(oc_pct <= 0) AS quarter_opens_red,
    round(anyIf(oc_pct, first_day = toDate('2026-07-01')), 2) AS jul1_oc_pct,
    arrayCount(x -> x < anyIf(oc_pct, first_day = toDate('2026-07-01')), groupArrayIf(oc_pct, first_day != toDate('2026-07-01'))) + 1 AS jul1_rank_worst_to_best,
    round(min(oc_pct), 2) AS worst_quarter_open_pct,
    round(max(oc_pct), 2) AS best_quarter_open_pct,
    concat(monthName(min(first_day)), ' ', toString(toYear(min(first_day)))) AS first_measured
FROM (
    SELECT f.first_day AS first_day, d.oc_pct AS oc_pct
    FROM (
        SELECT toStartOfQuarter(d) AS q, min(d) AS first_day
        FROM (
            SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d
            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
            WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
              AND window_start >= toDateTime('2004-01-01 00:00:00')
              AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00')
              AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
            GROUP BY d
        )
        GROUP BY q
    ) f
    INNER JOIN (
        SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
               (argMax(toFloat64(close), (window_start, close)) / argMin(toFloat64(open), (window_start, open)) - 1) * 100 AS oc_pct
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2004-01-01 00:00:00')
          AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-02 00:00:00')
          AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
        GROUP BY d
    ) d ON d.d = f.first_day
)

Katika vipindi 91 vya ufunguzi wa robo mwaka tangu January 2004, mwendo wa wastani wa kati wa SPY kutoka ufunguzi hadi kufunga siku ya kwanza ya robo mwaka ni 0.01% — 46 nyekundu dhidi ya 45 kijani, ukianzia -2.28% hadi 3.18%: sarafu inayopinduliwa na hitilafu ya kukadiria. Julai 1 ilichapisha 0.09%, nafasi 50 kati ya 91 kutoka mbaya zaidi hadi bora zaidi — katikati kabisa. Msingi: SPY kufungua hadi kufunga kwa saa za kawaida, kila kikao cha kwanza cha robo mwaka kwenye hifadhidata.

Kile ambacho siku inamwachia msomaji

Fahirisi ilisogea kwa 0.09%; jopo la majina manane linajumuisha -10.45% hadi 8.88%; ulinzi haukubadilisha bei kwa kiasi kikubwa. Hiyo ndiyo hesabu ya kawaida ya soko lililojikita — hasara za sekta moja zikifidiwa na faida katika 7 ya 11 nyingine ndivyo fahirisi inavyojumlisha. Mtazamo wa kiwango cha fahirisi hauoni chochote hapa; mtazamo wa kiwango cha nafasi unaona sehemu ya kumi ya umiliki ukiwa umepotea kwa siku moja.

Kikao, kimehakikiwa

UlizaUkaguzi wa kikao: muda wa baa za dakika za SPY uliozingatiwa
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    formatDateTime(min(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), '%H:%i') AS first_spy_bar_et,
    formatDateTime(max(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), '%H:%i') AS last_spy_bar_et,
    count() AS spy_minute_bars,
    countIf(window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00') AS regular_session_bars,
    uniqExactIf(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00') AS day_sessions,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_market_holidays WHERE date = '2026-07-01') AS jul1_holiday_rows
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 00:00:00'

Mishororo ya SPY inaendesha 04:00 hadi 19:59 kwa saa za New York, ikiwa na mishororo 390 ya dirisha la kawaida na safu 0 za sikukuu kwenye tarehe hiyo — kikao kamili, kilichohakikiwa kutoka kwenye mkanda.

Maswali Yanayoulizwa Mara kwa Mara

Je, soko la hisa lilipanda au kushuka mnamo Julai 1, 2026?

Inategemea unapoangalia. SPY ilifunga -0.08%, DIA 0.02%, QQQ -1.44%; 3465 ya majina yenye ukwasi mkubwa yalishuka dhidi ya 2928 yaliyopanda — hata hivyo 7 ya 11 ya fedha za sekta zilifunga kwa kijani, teknolojia ikiwa tofauti.

Kwa nini Micron, SanDisk, Western Digital na Seagate zote zilishuka Julai 1, 2026?

Data hii inaripoti mwendo wa pamoja, si sababu: hizo nne zilishuka kati ya -5.11% na -10.45%. Makala ya The Motley Fool ya siku hiyo hiyo kuhusu Micron (kwenye paneli ya habari kwenye ukurasa huu, 14:11 ET) iliandikwa chini ya kichwa cha habari "Why Micron Stock Is Plummeting Today". Hiyo ni mfumo wa uchapishaji wa tovuti hiyo, si matokeo katika data ya soko.

Kwa nini META ilipanda Julai 1, 2026?

META ilifunga 8.88% juu zaidi, kiwango chake cha chini kikiwa kwenye mwanya wa ufunguzi. Uandishi wa The Motley Fool ulihusisha mwendo huo na ripoti kuwa kampuni ilipanga kuuza uwezo wa ziada wa kompyuta wa AI kama biashara ya wingu: maelezo ya tovuti hiyo, si yetu.

Je, siku ya kwanza ya biashara ya robo mwaka kwa kawaida ni siku nzuri?

Si kwa kipimo cha kuonekana. Katika 91 ya fursa za robo mwaka tangu January 2004, mwendo wa wastani wa SPY kuanzia ufunguzi hadi kufunga ulikuwa 0.01%: 46 kijani, 45 nyekundu — ni kama kutupa sarafu; Julai 1 ilikuwa katikati ya orodha.

Je, soko la chaguzi lilikuwa likikabiliana na mauzo ya hisa Julai 1, 2026?

Si katika kiwango cha fahirisi: 0.71 za put kwa kila call kwenye soko zima, na ni 11.6% tu ya kiasi cha chaguzi za put za SPY zilizogonga zaidi ya asilimia mbili chini ya kufunga.

Vidokezo vya data

  • Kiasi cha dola ni kigezo cha wastani kwa dakika — bei ya kufunga ikizidishwa na kiasi kilichojumlishwa kwa kila baa ya dakika, wakati wa saa za kawaida. Thamani za juu na za chini zilizoonyeshwa zilithibitishwa kwa kulinganisha na baa zilizo karibu; kukiwa na usawa, baa ya kwanza kwa wakati inachukuliwa.
  • Hakuna fahirisi ya VIX ya papo hapo hapa. Sehemu ya tete inasoma fedha za VIX-futures zilizoorodheshwa, ambazo zinashikilia na kuzungusha futures — zinahusiana na fahirisi, lakini kamwe si sawa.
  • Viwango vipya vya juu/vya chini vya robo mwaka hulinganisha viwango vya juu na vya chini vya Julai 1 wakati wa saa za kawaida na safu ya Aprili 1–Juni 30 kwa kila jina, kwa majina yenye ukwasi na baa kamili za robo mwaka; matone yanaonyeshwa kwenye sehemu.
  • Bodi ya sekta ni kikapu kilichochaguliwa (SPDR ETF kumi na moja, si uga wa mtoa huduma); sehemu ya habari ni mlisho mmoja ulio na leseni (makala 12, wachapishaji wawili); orodha moja ya alama iliyotumiwa tena haijajumuishwa kwenye mwongozo wa viongozi (risiti zake).

Mbinu

  • Kipindi kimoja cha biashara (1 kipindi, kilichothibitishwa kutoka kwa baa zilizozingatiwa na jedwali la likizo — kamwe hakikudhaniwa). Nyakati zimehifadhiwa kwa UTC, zikabadilishwa kuwa wakati wa New York ndani ya maswali; "kufunga" ni baa ya dakika ya mwisho ya kipindi cha kawaida, mabadiliko ya siku dhidi ya Juni 30.
  • Desimali hubadilishwa kuwa sehemu za 64-bit kabla ya hesabu za uwiano; tarehe za kumalizika kwa chaguo huchambuliwa tena kutoka kwa ticker ya OCC. Paneli huendeshwa mara moja, wakati wa uandishi, kupitia njia iliyofungwa ya kusoma tu. Hali ya ghala kufikia Julai 13, 2026; toleo hili linaongeza paneli za sekta, tete, habari, gawio na historia ya robo.

Kila paneli ni matokeo ya swala lililohifadhiwa — chati, jedwali na SQL ni kitu kimoja. Bandika yoyote kwenye terminal ya Strasmore. Ifuatayo: Julai 2; wiki: wiki ya likizo.

#recap#daily#spy#qqq#market structure