matokeo ya kila mwezi ya hisa yanapimwaje

Uliza hisa "ilifanya nini mwezi Juni" na utapata namba tofauti kutoka vyanzo tofauti — zote ni sahihi. Matokeo ya kila mwezi ya hisa yanategemea uchaguzi ambao watu wengi hawaoni: bei zipi mbili zinaweka mipaka ya mwezi, kama dividendi zinahesabika, na kama mfululizo wa bei ulirekebishwa kwa mgawanyiko wa hisa. Ukurasa huu unatekeleza mifumo inayoshindana kwenye kanda halisi ya biashara, kwa kulinganisha, ili tofauti zisichanganye tena.

Kufunga-hadi-kufunga: kanuni ya kawaida

Kanuni inayotumika na watoa faharasa, karatasi za taarifa za hazina, na sehemu nyingi za kurasa za nukuu: msafara wa mwezi huanzia bei ya kufungia ya kipindi cha kawaida ya mwezi uliotangulia hadi kufungia kwa mwisho kwa mwezi huu. Kufungia kwa mwisho kwa Mei ni mwanzo wa Juni. Hesabu ni moja tu — bei ya mwisho ikiondoa bei ya mwanzo, kisha kugawanya kwa bei ya mwanzo. Mfano rahisi kwanza: hisa inayofungia Mei kwa $50.00 na kufungia Juni kwa $53.50 ilirudisha (53.50 − 50.00) ÷ 50.00 = 0.07, au 7%, kwa mwezi huo. Kila kanuni kwenye ukurasa huu huweka data tofauti katika fomula hiyo hiyo. Hapa ni kwenye rekodi halisi ya Juni 2026, pamoja na mbadala wake mkuu:

SELECT ticker,
       round(argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2026-05-31'), 2) AS may_final_close,
       round(argMinIf(op, day, day >= '2026-06-01'), 2) AS june_first_open,
       round(argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2026-06-30'), 2) AS june_final_close,
       round(100 * (argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2026-06-30') - argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2026-05-31'))
             / argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2026-05-31'), 2) AS close_to_close_pct,
       round(100 * (argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2026-06-30') - argMinIf(op, day, day >= '2026-06-01'))
             / argMinIf(op, day, day >= '2026-06-01'), 2) AS open_to_close_pct,
       round(abs(100 * (argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2026-06-30') - argMinIf(op, day, day >= '2026-06-01'))
                 / argMinIf(op, day, day >= '2026-06-01')
             - 100 * (argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2026-06-30') - argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2026-05-31'))
                 / argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2026-05-31')), 2) AS convention_gap_points
FROM (
    SELECT ticker,
               toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS day,
               argMinIf(toFloat64(open), window_start, rth) AS op,
               argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, rth) AS cl
        FROM (
            SELECT ticker, window_start, open, close,
                   toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York') >= toDateTime(concat(toString(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))), ' 09:30:00'), 'America/New_York')
                   AND toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York') < toDateTime(concat(toString(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))), ' 16:00:00'), 'America/New_York') AS rth
            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
            WHERE ticker IN ('NVDA', 'SPY')
              AND window_start >= '2026-05-28 04:00:00'
              AND window_start < '2026-07-01 08:00:00'
        )
        GROUP BY ticker, day
)
GROUP BY ticker
ORDER BY ticker

Mwezi wa Juni wa NVDA ulikuwa -5.39% kufunga-hadi-kufunga — lakini -7.4% ukipimwa kutoka ufunguzi wa kipindi cha kawaida cha kwanza cha Juni hadi kufungia kwake kwa mwisho. Hasa ile ile, mwezi huohuo, 2.01 asilimia kati ya majibu mawili ya kweli. Tofauti yote ni dirisha moja la usiku na wikendi: NVDA ilifungia Mei kwa $211.15 na kufungua Juni kwa $215.73 — kuruka huko kunahusu "Juni" kwenye kanuni ya ufunguzi-hadi-kufunga na kwenye mpaka kwenye kufunga-hadi-kufunga. SPY inaonyesha muundo huohuo kwa upole zaidi: -1.33% kufunga-hadi-kufunga dhidi ya -1.2% ufunguzi-hadi-kufunga.

Nambari yeyote kati ya hizi si sahihi. Kufunga-hadi-kufunga inajibu "mtu anayeshikilia hisa bila kuuza alipata nini katika mpaka wa mwezi?" Ufunguzi-hadi-kufunga unajibu "biashara za mwezo zenyewe zilimpatia nini mtu aliyeununua kwenye ufunguzi wa Juni?" Tofauti hutokea wakati soko linaruka katika mpaka — na kuruka usiku ni jambo la kawaida, si la nadra.

Dividends: mrejesho wa bei dhidi ya mrejesho wa jumla

Uchaguzi wa pili: je, pesa taslimu ambayo hisa ilitoa wakati wa mwezi inahesabika? Mrejesho wa bei huliangalia; mrejesho wa jumla huongeza. Kwa miezi mingi ya kawaida tofauti ni ndogo — mlipaji wa kila robo mwaka husambaza takriban robo ya yield yake kila robo — lakini inajaa kuwa kinyume kubwa baada ya miaka, na Juni 2026 ilikuwa mwezi wa malipo ya SPY:

WITH px AS (
    SELECT argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2026-05-31') AS may_close,
           argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2026-06-30') AS jun_close
    FROM (
        SELECT ticker,
               toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS day,
               argMinIf(toFloat64(open), window_start, rth) AS op,
               argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, rth) AS cl
        FROM (
            SELECT ticker, window_start, open, close,
                   toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York') >= toDateTime(concat(toString(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))), ' 09:30:00'), 'America/New_York')
                   AND toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York') < toDateTime(concat(toString(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))), ' 16:00:00'), 'America/New_York') AS rth
            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
            WHERE ticker IN ('NVDA', 'SPY')
              AND window_start >= '2026-05-28 04:00:00'
              AND window_start < '2026-07-01 08:00:00'
        )
        GROUP BY ticker, day
    )
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
),
dv AS (
    SELECT sum(cash_amount) AS div_per_share
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND ex_dividend_date >= '2026-06-01'
      AND ex_dividend_date <= '2026-06-30'
)
SELECT round(may_close, 2) AS may_final_close,
       round(jun_close, 2) AS june_final_close,
       round(div_per_share, 4) AS june_dividend_per_share,
       round(100 * (jun_close - may_close) / may_close, 2) AS price_return_pct,
       round(100 * div_per_share / may_close, 2) AS dividend_contribution_pct,
       round(100 * ((jun_close + div_per_share) - may_close) / may_close, 2) AS total_return_pct
FROM px CROSS JOIN dv

Mrejesho wa bei wa SPY wa Juni ulikuwa -1.33%; ongeza mgao wa $1.9035 kwa hisa ulioenda ex-dividend wakati wa mwezi huo na mrejesho wa jumla unaboreshwa hadi -1.08% — mchango wa 0.25% kutoka kwa pesa taslimu. Familia za index huchapisha aina zote mbili (ile "S&P 500" unayoona ikinukuliwa kwa kawaida ni index ya bei), kurasa za utendaji wa hazina zinahitajika kuonyesha mrejesho wa jumla, na screeners huchanganya hizo mbili kwa uhuru. Wakati vyanzo viwili vinatofautiana kwa sehemu chache za asilimia kwa mwezi wa mlipaji wa dividend, dividend ndiyo shaka ya kwanza — tarehe ya ex-dividend huamua ni mwezi gani malipo yanahusishwa.

Juni moja ni sehemu chache za asilimia. Muda ndio unachotenga tofauti kati ya mifumo miwili — hapa ni hesabu ile ile iliyotanuliwa kwa miaka mitano:

WITH daily AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS day,
           argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start,
               toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York') >= toDateTime(concat(toString(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))), ' 09:30:00'), 'America/New_York')
               AND toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York') < toDateTime(concat(toString(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))), ' 16:00:00'), 'America/New_York')) AS cl
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND ((window_start >= '2021-06-28 04:00:00' AND window_start < '2021-07-01 08:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-06-26 04:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 08:00:00'))
    GROUP BY day
),
px AS (
    SELECT argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2021-06-30') AS start_close,
           argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2026-06-30') AS end_close
    FROM daily
),
dv AS (
    SELECT round(sum(cash_amount), 2) AS divs_per_share,
           count() AS payments
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND ex_dividend_date >= '2021-07-01'
      AND ex_dividend_date <= '2026-06-30'
)
SELECT round(start_close, 2) AS june_2021_close,
       round(end_close, 2) AS june_2026_close,
       divs_per_share AS dividends_paid_per_share,
       payments AS dividend_payments,
       round(100 * (end_close - start_close) / start_close, 2) AS five_year_price_return_pct,
       round(100 * ((end_close + divs_per_share) - start_close) / start_close, 2) AS five_year_return_with_divs_pct,
       round(100 * divs_per_share / start_close, 2) AS dividend_points_added
FROM px CROSS JOIN dv

Kutoka kwa fungu la Juni 2021 la $428.07 hadi fungu la Juni 2026 la $746.32, mrejesho wa bei wa SPY wa miaka mitano unapimwa 74.35%. Katika kipindi kile kile ililipa mgao 20 jumla ya $34.07 kwa hisa; kuhesabu pesa hiyo taslimu huongeza namba hiyo hadi 82.3% — tofauti ya pointi 7.96 kabla ya dividend hata moja kurejeshwa. Index ya kweli ya mrejesho wa jumla hurejesha kila malipo kwenye tarehe yake ya ex-date, na hisa zilizorejeshwa huongeza tofauti zaidi. Kwa mlipaji aliyekomaa, "margins kubwa" si tamko la kimatamshi; ndiyo matokeo chaguo-msingi ya pesa taslimu ya kila robo kwa miaka.

Close iliyorekebishwa dhidi ya close ghafi: mtego wa mgawanyiko

Zana nyingi za chati — Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, programu nyingi za wakala — zinatanua close iliyorekebishwa: mfululizo wa bei za kihistoria ambapo bei za zamani zimegawanywa chini kwa ajili ya mgawanyiko (na, katika jukwaa zingine, zinarekebishwa pia kwa ajili ya divideni) ili mstari uweze kulinganishwa kipindi kizima. Ghala letu linahifadhi uchapishaji kama ulivyoonekana kwa kweli. Katika mwezi wa kawaida njia zote mbili zinakubaliana. Katika mwezi unaobeba mgawanyiko wa hisa, zinatoa hadithi tofauti kabisa — mgawanyiko wa NVDA wa kumi-kwa-mmoja uliofanywa Juni 10, 2024, ndani ya mwezi huo:

WITH px AS (
    SELECT argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2024-05-31') AS may_close,
           argMaxIf(cl, day, day <= '2024-06-30') AS jun_close
    FROM (
        SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS day,
               argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start,
                   toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York') >= toDateTime(concat(toString(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))), ' 09:30:00'), 'America/New_York')
                   AND toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York') < toDateTime(concat(toString(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))), ' 16:00:00'), 'America/New_York')) AS cl
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'NVDA'
          AND window_start >= '2024-05-29 04:00:00'
          AND window_start < '2024-07-01 08:00:00'
        GROUP BY day
    )
),
sp AS (
    SELECT split_to / split_from AS ratio
    FROM global_markets.stocks_splits
    WHERE ticker = 'NVDA'
      AND execution_date >= '2024-06-01'
      AND execution_date <= '2024-06-30'
)
SELECT round(may_close, 2) AS may_final_close_raw,
       round(jun_close, 2) AS june_final_close_raw,
       toInt32(ratio) AS shares_after_split_per_old_share,
       round(100 * (jun_close - may_close) / may_close, 2) AS raw_price_change_pct,
       round(may_close / ratio, 2) AS may_close_split_adjusted,
       round(100 * (jun_close - may_close / ratio) / (may_close / ratio), 2) AS adjusted_return_pct
FROM px CROSS JOIN sp

Ukisoma kwa bei ghafi, NVDA "ilianguka" kutoka $1097.46 hadi $123.41 Juni hiyo — poromoko la -88.75%. Hakuna kitu cha namna hiyo kilichotokea: kwenye tarehe ya utekelezaji kila hisa ya zamani ikawa 10 mpya na bei ikagawanywa kulingana, na thamani ya dola ya kila mmiliki ikabaki pale ilipokuwa. Gawa close ya Mei kwa uwiano ule ule — $109.75 kwa msingi wa mgawanyiko uliorekebishwa — na Juni 2024 inapima 12.45%, mwezi wa kupanda. Chanzo chochote kinichotanua data iliyorekebishwa kinatoa kadirio karibu na namba ya pili; hesabu ya kijinga kwenye uchapishaji ghafi inatoa ya kwanza. Close iliyorekebishwa ndiyo sababu inayojirudia zaidi inayofanya vyanzo viwili vitatofautiana sana kuhusu matokeo ya kihistoria ya mwezi — wakati kadirio linaonekana kubwa lisilowezekana upande wowote, angalia kalenda ya mgawanyiko kabla ya chochote kingine.

"Close" gani ndio close?

Kuna mpaka mwingine unaofichika ndani ya kanuni: bei ya kufungwa yenyewe. Namba inayotumiwa na kila waraka wa taarifa ni bei rasmi ya mazoezi ya kufungwa — bei moja inayowekwa na mazoezi ya kufungwa saa 4:00 PM ET. Lakini biashara inaendelea baada ya masaa, na bei ya mwisho ya kipindi cha nyongeza inaweza kutofautiana na close rasmi:

SELECT round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, rth), 2) AS regular_session_close,
       round(argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start), 2) AS last_extended_print,
       round(100 * (argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) - argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, rth))
             / argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, rth), 3) AS after_hours_drift_pct
FROM (
    SELECT window_start, close,
           toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York') >= toDateTime('2026-06-30 09:30:00', 'America/New_York')
           AND toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York') < toDateTime('2026-06-30 16:00:00', 'America/New_York') AS rth
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= '2026-06-30 04:00:00'
      AND window_start < '2026-07-01 08:00:00'
)

Mnamo Juni 30 zilitofautiana kwa -0.003% — tofauti ndogo siku hiyo jioni, lakini kwenye jioni ya matokeo ya faida kwa hisa moja, kipindi cha nyongeza kinaweza kusogezwa kwa kiasi cha asilimia ambacho mapato rasmi ya mwezi yatayahesabu kwenye mwezi unaofuata. Biashara ya masaa ya nyongeza na ya mapema inaelezea mpaka huo kwa kina. Kesi moja ya pembezoni inayohusiana: mipaka ya mwezi wakati mwingine huangukia kwenye kipindi kilichofupishwa na likizo, ambapo siku ya kawaida inaisha saa 1:00 PM ET na close rasmi inachapishwa kwenye mazoezi ya mapema ya kufungwa — ratiba ya likizo za soko inaorodhesha hizo.

Kuunganisha miezi kumi na mbili kuwa mwaka

Mwazo wa mwaka mmoja si jumla ya matokeo ya miezi kumi na mbili — ni zao lao. Fomula ya kuunganisha: geuza kila mwezi kuwa kizio cha ukuaji (1 + matokeo), zidisha vizio kumi na mbili pamoja, kisha toa 1. Mwezi wa -5% ukiufuata mwezi wa +5% unajumlisha sufuri lakini unaoana kuwa 0.95 × 1.05 − 1 = -0.25%. Hapa hapa njia halisi ya kila mwezi ya SPY katika miezi kumi na mbili inayoitimia Juni 2026:

WITH daily AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS day,
           argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start,
               toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York') >= toDateTime(concat(toString(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))), ' 09:30:00'), 'America/New_York')
               AND toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York') < toDateTime(concat(toString(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))), ' 16:00:00'), 'America/New_York')) AS cl
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= '2025-06-24 04:00:00'
      AND window_start < '2026-07-01 08:00:00'
    GROUP BY day
),
monthly AS (
    SELECT toStartOfMonth(day) AS month_start,
           argMax(cl, day) AS month_close
    FROM daily
    GROUP BY month_start
),
rets AS (
    SELECT month_start,
           formatDateTime(month_start, '%Y-%m') AS month,
           round(month_close, 2) AS month_final_close,
           100 * (month_close / lagInFrame(month_close) OVER (ORDER BY month_start) - 1) AS r
    FROM monthly
)
SELECT month,
       month_final_close,
       round(r, 2) AS simple_return_pct,
       round(100 * log(1 + r / 100), 2) AS log_return_pct
FROM rets
WHERE isFinite(r)
ORDER BY month_start

Miezi kumi na mbili ya kufungwa-hadi-kufungwa, kutoka 2.28% katika 2025-07 hadi -1.33% katika 2026-06 — safu ya mwisho ni ile ile takwimu ya SPY ya Juni 2026 iliyopimwa katika paneli ya kwanza. Unganisha miezi kumi na mbili kwa usahihi na linganisha na njia ya mkato ya kuongeza asilimia tu:

WITH daily AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS day,
           argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start,
               toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York') >= toDateTime(concat(toString(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))), ' 09:30:00'), 'America/New_York')
               AND toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York') < toDateTime(concat(toString(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))), ' 16:00:00'), 'America/New_York')) AS cl
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= '2025-06-24 04:00:00'
      AND window_start < '2026-07-01 08:00:00'
    GROUP BY day
),
monthly AS (
    SELECT toStartOfMonth(day) AS month_start,
           argMax(cl, day) AS month_close
    FROM daily
    GROUP BY month_start
),
rets AS (
    SELECT month_start,
           100 * (month_close / lagInFrame(month_close) OVER (ORDER BY month_start) - 1) AS r
    FROM monthly
),
ends AS (
    SELECT argMin(month_close, month_start) AS base_close,
           argMax(month_close, month_start) AS final_close
    FROM monthly
)
SELECT count() AS months_linked,
       round(sum(r), 2) AS simple_sum_pct,
       round(100 * (exp(sum(log(1 + r / 100))) - 1), 2) AS geometric_compound_pct,
       round(100 * (any(final_close) / any(base_close) - 1), 2) AS direct_twelve_month_pct,
       round(100 * (exp(sum(log(1 + r / 100))) - 1) - sum(r), 2) AS compounding_gap_points,
       round(sum(100 * log(1 + r / 100)), 2) AS sum_of_monthly_log_returns_pct,
       round(100 * log(any(final_close) / any(base_close)), 2) AS twelve_month_log_return_pct
FROM rets CROSS JOIN ends
WHERE isFinite(r)

Miezi kumi na mbili inajumlisha 19.83% lakini inaoana 20.79% — na hesabu ya moja kwa moja, kufungwa kwa Juni 2025 moja kwa moja hadi Juni 2026, inatoa 20.79%, ikilingana na takwimu ilivyoanishwa badala ya jumla. Tofauti hapa ni pointi 0.96 katika mwaka mmoja tulivu kiasi; inapanuka kadiri volatiliani na muda vinavyoongezeka. Kuongeza asilimia za kila mwezi ni desturi ya kawaida kwenye spreadsheet, na ni kosa lisilotangazwa.

Safu wili za mwisho zinaonyesha kanuni iliyoundwa kwa kuongeza: matokeo ya logi, logi asilia ya kizio cha ukuaji, ln(1 + matokeo). Matokeo ya logi ya kila mwezi yanajumlisha 18.89% — sawa kabisa na matokeo ya logi ya miezi kumi na mbili ya 18.89%, na hilo ndilo hasa sababu wachambuzi na modeli za hatari huyatumia. Kwa miezi midogo kanuni mbili hazitofautiani sana (2025-11: 0.21% rahisi, 0.21% logi); kadiri mwezi unavyokuwa mkubwa, ndivyo zinavyotengana zaidi (2026-04: 10.49% rahisi, 9.97% logi). Karatasi za ukweli za hazina zinatanua matokeo rahisi; matokeo ya logi yapo kwenye karatasi za utafiti na hesabu za volatiliani.

Orodha inayolinganisha chanzo chochote mbili

Takwimu mbili za mwezo wa mwezi zinapokinzana, mara nyingi hutofautiana katika moja ya nne swichi:

1. Nukta za mwisho — kufunga-hadi-kufunga (kiwango) au kufungua-hadi-kufunga (biashara ya mwezi yenyewe). Hutoa tofauti wakati wowote mpaka unapobadilika ghafla.
2. Mgao — mwezo wa bei au mwezo wa jumla. Hutoa tofauti katika mwezi wowote unaokuwa na tarehe ya ex-dividend.
3. Marekebisho — bei ghafi au mfululizo wa bei iliyorekebishwa. Hutoa tofauti kubwa katika mwezi wowote unaokuwa na mgawanyiko wa hisa.
4. Kufunga yenyewe — bei rasmi ya mnada (kiwango) ikilinganishwa na biashara ya mwisho inayoweza kujumuisha masaa ya ziada.

Endesha swichi sawa kwenye vyanzo vyote viwili na tofauti itatoweka — na linganisho la mfundo dhidi ya index ni halali tu takwimu zote zilipokuwa kwenye mipangilio minne sawa; zikibadilishwa moja, linganisho hupima kwa siri swichi badala ya utendaji. Mafupisho yetu ya June 2026 yanashehekea kanuni yake mbele kwa sababu hii hasa — kila namba ya mwezi huko ni kufunga-hadi-kufunga, bei rasmi, mwezo wa bei.

Maswali yanayoulizwa mara kwa mara kuhusu matokeo ya mwezi

Matokeo ya close-to-close ni nini?

Mabadiliko kwa asilimia kutoka bei ya kufungia ya mwisho ya kipindi cha awali hadi bei ya kufungia ya mwisho ya kipindi hiki. Hii ndio kanuni ya kawaida kwa matokeo ya hisa za kila siku, kila mwezi, na kila mwaka katika karatasi za taarifa na ripoti za index.

Kwa nini tovuti mbili zinaonyesha matokeo tofauti kwa hisa na mwezi huohuo?

Karibu kila wakati ni moja ya kanuni nne: nukta za mwisho tofauti (close-to-close dhidi ya open-to-close), dividends zilizohesabiwa au zisizohesabiwa, bei ghafi dhidi ya bei zilizorekebishwa kulingana na split, au chanzo cha bei ya kufungia tofauti. Pimio la NVDA la Juni 2026 ni -5.39% au -7.4% kwa kubadilisha swichi ya kwanza pekee.

Je, split ya hisa hubadilisha hesabu ya matokeo ya mwezi?

Haipaswi kubadilisha — split hubadilisha idadi ya hisa na bei pamoja, na kuacha thamani ya nafasi isiyobadilika — lakini inaharibu hesabu yoyote inayofanywa kwenye bei ghafi. NVDA ya Juni 2024 inaonekana kuwa -88.75% kwenye bei za kufungia ghafi na inapimia 12.45% mara tu split ya kumi-kwa-moja inaporekebishwa.

Je, matokeo ya mwezi ya hisa yanajumuisha dividends?

Matokeo ya jumla tu ndiyo yanayojumuisha. Matokeo ya bei — ikiwa ni pamoja na kiwango cha S&P 500 index kinachoonyeshwa kwenye kichwa — hayajumuishi dividends. Mwezi Juni 2026, dividend iliongeza 0.25% kwa mwezi wa SPY, hii ndio tofauti kati ya matokeo yake ya bei na yale ya jumla.

Je, matokeo ya mwezi ya folio yangu binafsi yanahesabiwa kwa njia ile ile?

La, mara tu pesa taslimu inapoingia au kutoka. Matokeo ya securities moja kama vile yale yaliyo kwenye ukurasa huu ni time-weighted; akaunti yenye amana na uondoaji inahitaji hesabu ya money-weighted (internal-rate-of-return), au vinginevyo mtiririko wa pesa taslimu unajificha kuwa matokeo. Wafanyabiashara wengi huripoti takwimu ya time-weighted hasa ili kuondoa amana zako kutoka kwenye namba.

Kila takwimu hapo juu ni swali lililohifadhiwa lenye toleo kwenye rekodi halisi — panua SQL ya paneli yoyote, au pima mwezi wa ticker yoyote chini ya kanuni yoyote kwenye kituo cha Strasmore.