2s10s versus 3m10y in three inversion windows, daily closes
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-11-01, from What Is the 3m10y Spread? The Fed's Yield Curve.
| label | days_2s10s_inverted | days_3m10y_inverted | deepest_2s10s_bps | deepest_3m10y_bps | first_2s10s_inversion | first_3m10y_inversion | last_2s10s_inversion | last_3m10y_inversion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006-07 | 235 | 243 | -19 | -64 | Jan 31, 2006 | Jan 17, 2006 | Jun 5, 2007 | Aug 27, 2007 |
| 2019 | 3 | 104 | -4 | -52 | Aug 27, 2019 | Mar 22, 2019 | Aug 29, 2019 | Oct 10, 2019 |
| 2022-24 | 541 | 535 | -108 | -189 | Apr 1, 2022 | Oct 18, 2022 | Sep 5, 2024 | Dec 12, 2024 |
- Rows × columns
- 3 × 9
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
label |
text | 3 distinct values (2006-07, 2019, 2022-24) | |
days_2s10s_inverted |
number | 3 to 541 | |
days_3m10y_inverted |
number | 104 to 535 | |
deepest_2s10s_bps |
number | -108 to -4 | |
deepest_3m10y_bps |
number | -189 to -52 | |
first_2s10s_inversion |
text | 3 distinct values (Apr 1, 2022, Aug 27, 2019, Jan 31, 2006) | |
first_3m10y_inversion |
text | 3 distinct values (Jan 17, 2006, Mar 22, 2019, Oct 18, 2022) | |
last_2s10s_inversion |
text | 3 distinct values (Aug 29, 2019, Jun 5, 2007, Sep 5, 2024) | |
last_3m10y_inversion |
text | 3 distinct values (Aug 27, 2007, Dec 12, 2024, Oct 10, 2019) |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
SELECT
label,
countIf(spread_2s10s_bps < 0) AS days_2s10s_inverted,
countIf(spread_3m10y_bps < 0) AS days_3m10y_inverted,
toInt32(round(min(spread_2s10s_bps))) AS deepest_2s10s_bps,
toInt32(round(min(spread_3m10y_bps))) AS deepest_3m10y_bps,
if(countIf(spread_2s10s_bps < 0) > 0,
formatDateTime(minIf(date, spread_2s10s_bps < 0), '%b %e, %Y'), 'never') AS first_2s10s_inversion,
if(countIf(spread_3m10y_bps < 0) > 0,
formatDateTime(minIf(date, spread_3m10y_bps < 0), '%b %e, %Y'), 'never') AS first_3m10y_inversion,
if(countIf(spread_2s10s_bps < 0) > 0,
formatDateTime(maxIf(date, spread_2s10s_bps < 0), '%b %e, %Y'), 'never') AS last_2s10s_inversion,
if(countIf(spread_3m10y_bps < 0) > 0,
formatDateTime(maxIf(date, spread_3m10y_bps < 0), '%b %e, %Y'), 'never') AS last_3m10y_inversion
FROM
(
SELECT
date,
multiIf(date BETWEEN toDate('2006-01-01') AND toDate('2007-12-31'), '2006-07',
date BETWEEN toDate('2019-01-01') AND toDate('2019-12-31'), '2019',
date BETWEEN toDate('2022-01-01') AND toDate('2024-12-31'), '2022-24',
'other') AS label,
(toFloat64(yield_10_year) - toFloat64(yield_2_year)) * 100 AS spread_2s10s_bps,
(toFloat64(yield_10_year) - toFloat64(yield_3_month)) * 100 AS spread_3m10y_bps
FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
WHERE date >= toDate('2006-01-01')
AND date < toDate('2025-01-01')
AND yield_3_month > 0
AND yield_2_year > 0
AND yield_10_year > 0
)
WHERE label != 'other'
GROUP BY label
ORDER BY label
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