spread_monthly

Name: spread_monthly
Creator: Strasmore
Published: 2026-09-19
License: https://www.strasmore.com/terms/

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-09-19, from what-happens-when-the-yield-curve-un-inverts.

as of 2026-09-19 series 604×5read in context →

Showing the first 300 of 604 rows — every row as JSON →

spread_monthly — 604 rows by 5 columns, computed 2026-09-19 from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
month	month_label	spread_2s10s	y2_yield	y10_yield
1976-06-01	Jun 1976	0.8	7.06	7.86
1976-07-01	Jul 1976	0.98	6.85	7.83
1976-08-01	Aug 1976	1.14	6.63	7.77
1976-09-01	Sep 1976	1.18	6.42	7.59
1976-10-01	Oct 1976	1.43	5.98	7.41
1976-11-01	Nov 1976	1.48	5.81	7.29
1976-12-01	Dec 1976	1.49	5.38	6.87
1977-01-01	Jan 1977	1.31	5.9	7.21
1977-02-01	Feb 1977	1.3	6.09	7.39
1977-03-01	Mar 1977	1.37	6.09	7.46
1977-04-01	Apr 1977	1.41	5.96	7.37
1977-05-01	May 1977	1.2	6.25	7.46
1977-06-01	Jun 1977	1.15	6.13	7.28
1977-07-01	Jul 1977	1.06	6.27	7.33
1977-08-01	Aug 1977	0.79	6.61	7.4
1977-09-01	Sep 1977	0.63	6.71	7.34
1977-10-01	Oct 1977	0.42	7.11	7.52
1977-11-01	Nov 1977	0.43	7.14	7.58
1977-12-01	Dec 1977	0.51	7.18	7.69
1978-01-01	Jan 1978	0.47	7.49	7.96
1978-02-01	Feb 1978	0.47	7.57	8.03
1978-03-01	Mar 1978	0.46	7.57	8.04
1978-04-01	Apr 1978	0.41	7.74	8.15
1978-05-01	May 1978	0.34	8.01	8.35
1978-06-01	Jun 1978	0.22	8.24	8.46
1978-07-01	Jul 1978	0.15	8.49	8.64
1978-08-01	Aug 1978	0.04	8.37	8.41
1978-09-01	Sep 1978	-0.15	8.57	8.42
1978-10-01	Oct 1978	-0.21	8.85	8.64
1978-11-01	Nov 1978	-0.62	9.42	8.8
1978-12-01	Dec 1978	-0.71	9.72	9.01
1979-01-01	Jan 1979	-0.76	9.86	9.1
1979-02-01	Feb 1979	-0.62	9.72	9.1
1979-03-01	Mar 1979	-0.67	9.79	9.12
1979-04-01	Apr 1979	-0.6	9.78	9.18
1979-05-01	May 1979	-0.53	9.78	9.25
1979-06-01	Jun 1979	-0.31	9.22	8.91
1979-07-01	Jul 1979	-0.19	9.14	8.95
1979-08-01	Aug 1979	-0.43	9.46	9.03
1979-09-01	Sep 1979	-0.72	10.06	9.33
1979-10-01	Oct 1979	-1.19	11.49	10.3
1979-11-01	Nov 1979	-1.16	11.81	10.65
1979-12-01	Dec 1979	-1	11.39	10.39
1980-01-01	Jan 1980	-0.7	11.5	10.8
1980-02-01	Feb 1980	-1	13.42	12.41
1980-03-01	Mar 1980	-2.14	14.88	12.75
1980-04-01	Apr 1980	-1.03	12.5	11.47
1980-05-01	May 1980	0.73	9.45	10.18
1980-06-01	Jun 1980	1.05	8.73	9.78
1980-07-01	Jul 1980	1.22	9.03	10.25
1980-08-01	Aug 1980	0.57	10.53	11.1
1980-09-01	Sep 1980	-0.07	11.57	11.51
1980-10-01	Oct 1980	-0.34	12.09	11.75
1980-11-01	Nov 1980	-0.83	13.51	12.68
1980-12-01	Dec 1980	-1.23	14.08	12.84
1981-01-01	Jan 1981	-0.69	13.26	12.57
1981-02-01	Feb 1981	-0.72	13.92	13.19
1981-03-01	Mar 1981	-0.45	13.57	13.12
1981-04-01	Apr 1981	-0.47	14.15	13.68
1981-05-01	May 1981	-1.36	15.46	14.1
1981-06-01	Jun 1981	-1.03	14.51	13.47
1981-07-01	Jul 1981	-1.07	15.35	14.28
1981-08-01	Aug 1981	-1.35	16.28	14.94
1981-09-01	Sep 1981	-1.13	16.46	15.32
1981-10-01	Oct 1981	-0.39	15.54	15.15
1981-11-01	Nov 1981	0.51	12.88	13.39
1981-12-01	Dec 1981	0.43	13.29	13.72
1982-01-01	Jan 1982	0.03	14.57	14.59
1982-02-01	Feb 1982	-0.4	14.82	14.43
1982-03-01	Mar 1982	-0.33	14.19	13.86
1982-04-01	Apr 1982	-0.33	14.2	13.87
1982-05-01	May 1982	-0.15	13.78	13.62
1982-06-01	Jun 1982	-0.17	14.47	14.3
1982-07-01	Jul 1982	0.15	13.8	13.95
1982-08-01	Aug 1982	0.73	12.32	13.06
1982-09-01	Sep 1982	0.56	11.78	12.34
1982-10-01	Oct 1982	0.72	10.19	10.91
1982-11-01	Nov 1982	0.75	9.8	10.55
1982-12-01	Dec 1982	0.88	9.66	10.54
1983-01-01	Jan 1983	1.13	9.33	10.46
1983-02-01	Feb 1983	1.09	9.64	10.72
1983-03-01	Mar 1983	0.85	9.66	10.51
1983-04-01	Apr 1983	0.83	9.57	10.4
1983-05-01	May 1983	0.89	9.49	10.38
1983-06-01	Jun 1983	0.67	10.18	10.85
1983-07-01	Jul 1983	0.69	10.69	11.38
1983-08-01	Aug 1983	0.78	11.07	11.85
1983-09-01	Sep 1983	0.86	10.79	11.65
1983-10-01	Oct 1983	0.97	10.57	11.54
1983-11-01	Nov 1983	1.03	10.66	11.69
1983-12-01	Dec 1983	0.99	10.84	11.83
1984-01-01	Jan 1984	1.03	10.64	11.67
1984-02-01	Feb 1984	1.06	10.79	11.84
1984-03-01	Mar 1984	1	11.31	12.32
1984-04-01	Apr 1984	0.95	11.69	12.63
1984-05-01	May 1984	0.94	12.47	13.41
1984-06-01	Jun 1984	0.66	12.91	13.56
1984-07-01	Jul 1984	0.48	12.88	13.36
1984-08-01	Aug 1984	0.28	12.43	12.72
1984-09-01	Sep 1984	0.32	12.2	12.52
1984-10-01	Oct 1984	0.56	11.6	12.16
1984-11-01	Nov 1984	0.92	10.65	11.57
1984-12-01	Dec 1984	1.32	10.18	11.5
1985-01-01	Jan 1985	1.45	9.93	11.38
1985-02-01	Feb 1985	1.34	10.17	11.51
1985-03-01	Mar 1985	1.14	10.71	11.86
1985-04-01	Apr 1985	1.35	10.09	11.43
1985-05-01	May 1985	1.45	9.39	10.85
1985-06-01	Jun 1985	1.47	8.69	10.16
1985-07-01	Jul 1985	1.53	8.77	10.31
1985-08-01	Aug 1985	1.39	8.94	10.33
1985-09-01	Sep 1985	1.39	8.98	10.37
1985-10-01	Oct 1985	1.37	8.86	10.24
1985-11-01	Nov 1985	1.2	8.58	9.78
1985-12-01	Dec 1985	1.11	8.15	9.26
1986-01-01	Jan 1986	1.05	8.14	9.19
1986-02-01	Feb 1986	0.74	7.97	8.7
1986-03-01	Mar 1986	0.56	7.21	7.78
1986-04-01	Apr 1986	0.6	6.69	7.3
1986-05-01	May 1986	0.64	7.07	7.71
1986-06-01	Jun 1986	0.61	7.18	7.8
1986-07-01	Jul 1986	0.64	6.67	7.3
1986-08-01	Aug 1986	0.84	6.33	7.17
1986-09-01	Sep 1986	1.1	6.35	7.45
1986-10-01	Oct 1986	1.15	6.28	7.43
1986-11-01	Nov 1986	0.97	6.28	7.25
1986-12-01	Dec 1986	0.84	6.27	7.11
1987-01-01	Jan 1987	0.86	6.23	7.08
1987-02-01	Feb 1987	0.85	6.4	7.25
1987-03-01	Mar 1987	0.82	6.42	7.25
1987-04-01	Apr 1987	1	7.02	8.02
1987-05-01	May 1987	0.85	7.76	8.61
1987-06-01	Jun 1987	0.83	7.57	8.4
1987-07-01	Jul 1987	1	7.44	8.45
1987-08-01	Aug 1987	1.01	7.75	8.76
1987-09-01	Sep 1987	1.08	8.34	9.42
1987-10-01	Oct 1987	1.12	8.4	9.52
1987-11-01	Nov 1987	1.17	7.69	8.86
1987-12-01	Dec 1987	1.13	7.86	8.99
1988-01-01	Jan 1988	1.04	7.63	8.67
1988-02-01	Feb 1988	1.03	7.18	8.21
1988-03-01	Mar 1988	1.1	7.27	8.37
1988-04-01	Apr 1988	1.13	7.59	8.72
1988-05-01	May 1988	1.09	8	9.09
1988-06-01	Jun 1988	0.9	8.03	8.92
1988-07-01	Jul 1988	0.78	8.28	9.06
1988-08-01	Aug 1988	0.63	8.63	9.26
1988-09-01	Sep 1988	0.51	8.46	8.98
1988-10-01	Oct 1988	0.44	8.35	8.8
1988-11-01	Nov 1988	0.3	8.67	8.96
1988-12-01	Dec 1988	0.02	9.09	9.11
1989-01-01	Jan 1989	-0.08	9.18	9.09
1989-02-01	Feb 1989	-0.2	9.37	9.17
1989-03-01	Mar 1989	-0.32	9.68	9.36
1989-04-01	Apr 1989	-0.28	9.45	9.18
1989-05-01	May 1989	-0.16	9.02	8.86
1989-06-01	Jun 1989	-0.13	8.41	8.28
1989-07-01	Jul 1989	0.2	7.82	8.02
1989-08-01	Aug 1989	-0.03	8.14	8.11
1989-09-01	Sep 1989	-0.09	8.28	8.19
1989-10-01	Oct 1989	0.03	7.98	8.01
1989-11-01	Nov 1989	0.08	7.8	7.87
1989-12-01	Dec 1989	0.06	7.78	7.84
1990-01-01	Jan 1990	0.12	8.09	8.21
1990-02-01	Feb 1990	0.1	8.37	8.47
1990-03-01	Mar 1990	-0.04	8.63	8.59
1990-04-01	Apr 1990	0.06	8.72	8.79
1990-05-01	May 1990	0.12	8.64	8.76
1990-06-01	Jun 1990	0.13	8.35	8.48
1990-07-01	Jul 1990	0.31	8.16	8.47
1990-08-01	Aug 1990	0.69	8.06	8.75
1990-09-01	Sep 1990	0.81	8.08	8.89
1990-10-01	Oct 1990	0.84	7.88	8.72
1990-11-01	Nov 1990	0.79	7.6	8.39
1990-12-01	Dec 1990	0.76	7.31	8.07
1991-01-01	Jan 1991	0.97	7.13	8.09
1991-02-01	Feb 1991	0.99	6.87	7.85
1991-03-01	Mar 1991	1.01	7.1	8.11
1991-04-01	Apr 1991	1.09	6.95	8.04
1991-05-01	May 1991	1.28	6.78	8.07
1991-06-01	Jun 1991	1.33	6.96	8.28
1991-07-01	Jul 1991	1.36	6.92	8.27
1991-08-01	Aug 1991	1.47	6.43	7.9
1991-09-01	Sep 1991	1.47	6.18	7.65
1991-10-01	Oct 1991	1.62	5.91	7.53
1991-11-01	Nov 1991	1.86	5.56	7.42
1991-12-01	Dec 1991	2.06	5.03	7.09
1992-01-01	Jan 1992	2.07	4.96	7.03
1992-02-01	Feb 1992	2.13	5.21	7.34
1992-03-01	Mar 1992	1.86	5.68	7.54
1992-04-01	Apr 1992	2.14	5.34	7.48
1992-05-01	May 1992	2.17	5.23	7.39
1992-06-01	Jun 1992	2.21	5.05	7.26
1992-07-01	Jul 1992	2.49	4.36	6.84
1992-08-01	Aug 1992	2.39	4.19	6.59
1992-09-01	Sep 1992	2.52	3.89	6.42
1992-10-01	Oct 1992	2.51	4.08	6.59
1992-11-01	Nov 1992	2.29	4.58	6.87
1992-12-01	Dec 1992	2.1	4.67	6.77
1993-01-01	Jan 1993	2.21	4.39	6.6
1993-02-01	Feb 1993	2.16	4.1	6.26
1993-03-01	Mar 1993	2.03	3.95	5.98
1993-04-01	Apr 1993	2.13	3.84	5.97
1993-05-01	May 1993	2.06	3.98	6.04
1993-06-01	Jun 1993	1.8	4.16	5.96
1993-07-01	Jul 1993	1.73	4.07	5.81
1993-08-01	Aug 1993	1.68	4	5.68
1993-09-01	Sep 1993	1.51	3.85	5.36
1993-10-01	Oct 1993	1.46	3.87	5.33
1993-11-01	Nov 1993	1.57	4.16	5.72
1993-12-01	Dec 1993	1.56	4.21	5.77
1994-01-01	Jan 1994	1.61	4.14	5.75
1994-02-01	Feb 1994	1.5	4.47	5.97
1994-03-01	Mar 1994	1.49	5	6.48
1994-04-01	Apr 1994	1.42	5.55	6.97
1994-05-01	May 1994	1.22	5.97	7.18
1994-06-01	Jun 1994	1.17	5.93	7.1
1994-07-01	Jul 1994	1.17	6.13	7.3
1994-08-01	Aug 1994	1.06	6.18	7.24
1994-09-01	Sep 1994	1.06	6.39	7.46
1994-10-01	Oct 1994	1.02	6.73	7.74
1994-11-01	Nov 1994	0.81	7.15	7.96
1994-12-01	Dec 1994	0.22	7.59	7.81
1995-01-01	Jan 1995	0.27	7.51	7.78
1995-02-01	Feb 1995	0.36	7.11	7.47
1995-03-01	Mar 1995	0.43	6.78	7.2
1995-04-01	Apr 1995	0.49	6.57	7.06
1995-05-01	May 1995	0.46	6.17	6.63
1995-06-01	Jun 1995	0.45	5.72	6.17
1995-07-01	Jul 1995	0.5	5.78	6.28
1995-08-01	Aug 1995	0.51	5.98	6.49
1995-09-01	Sep 1995	0.39	5.81	6.2
1995-10-01	Oct 1995	0.35	5.7	6.04
1995-11-01	Nov 1995	0.45	5.48	5.93
1995-12-01	Dec 1995	0.39	5.32	5.71
1996-01-01	Jan 1996	0.54	5.11	5.65
1996-02-01	Feb 1996	0.78	5.03	5.81
1996-03-01	Mar 1996	0.61	5.66	6.27
1996-04-01	Apr 1996	0.55	5.96	6.51
1996-05-01	May 1996	0.64	6.1	6.74
1996-06-01	Jun 1996	0.61	6.3	6.91
1996-07-01	Jul 1996	0.6	6.27	6.87
1996-08-01	Aug 1996	0.61	6.03	6.64
1996-09-01	Sep 1996	0.6	6.23	6.83
1996-10-01	Oct 1996	0.62	5.91	6.53
1996-11-01	Nov 1996	0.5	5.7	6.2
1996-12-01	Dec 1996	0.52	5.78	6.3
1997-01-01	Jan 1997	0.57	6.01	6.58
1997-02-01	Feb 1997	0.52	5.9	6.42
1997-03-01	Mar 1997	0.47	6.22	6.69
1997-04-01	Apr 1997	0.44	6.45	6.89
1997-05-01	May 1997	0.43	6.28	6.71
1997-06-01	Jun 1997	0.4	6.09	6.49
1997-07-01	Jul 1997	0.33	5.89	6.22
1997-08-01	Aug 1997	0.36	5.94	6.3
1997-09-01	Sep 1997	0.33	5.88	6.21
1997-10-01	Oct 1997	0.26	5.77	6.03
1997-11-01	Nov 1997	0.16	5.71	5.88
1997-12-01	Dec 1997	0.09	5.71	5.81
1998-01-01	Jan 1998	0.19	5.36	5.54
1998-02-01	Feb 1998	0.16	5.42	5.57
1998-03-01	Mar 1998	0.09	5.56	5.65
1998-04-01	Apr 1998	0.07	5.56	5.64
1998-05-01	May 1998	0.06	5.59	5.65
1998-06-01	Jun 1998	-0.02	5.52	5.5
1998-07-01	Jul 1998	0	5.46	5.46
1998-08-01	Aug 1998	0.07	5.27	5.34
1998-09-01	Sep 1998	0.14	4.67	4.81
1998-10-01	Oct 1998	0.44	4.09	4.53
1998-11-01	Nov 1998	0.29	4.54	4.83
1998-12-01	Dec 1998	0.14	4.51	4.64
1999-01-01	Jan 1999	0.11	4.62	4.72
1999-02-01	Feb 1999	0.12	4.88	5
1999-03-01	Mar 1999	0.18	5.05	5.23
1999-04-01	Apr 1999	0.21	4.98	5.18
1999-05-01	May 1999	0.28	5.25	5.54
1999-06-01	Jun 1999	0.28	5.62	5.9
1999-07-01	Jul 1999	0.24	5.55	5.79
1999-08-01	Aug 1999	0.26	5.68	5.94
1999-09-01	Sep 1999	0.25	5.66	5.92
1999-10-01	Oct 1999	0.25	5.86	6.11
1999-11-01	Nov 1999	0.17	5.86	6.03
1999-12-01	Dec 1999	0.17	6.1	6.28
2000-01-01	Jan 2000	0.22	6.44	6.66
2000-02-01	Feb 2000	-0.09	6.61	6.52
2000-03-01	Mar 2000	-0.27	6.53	6.26
2000-04-01	Apr 2000	-0.41	6.4	5.99
2000-05-01	May 2000	-0.37	6.81	6.44
2000-06-01	Jun 2000	-0.38	6.48	6.1
2000-07-01	Jul 2000	-0.29	6.34	6.05
2000-08-01	Aug 2000	-0.4	6.23	5.83
2000-09-01	Sep 2000	-0.28	6.08	5.8
2000-10-01	Oct 2000	-0.17	5.91	5.74
2000-11-01	Nov 2000	-0.16	5.88	5.72
2000-12-01	Dec 2000	-0.11	5.35	5.24
2001-01-01	Jan 2001	0.4	4.76	5.16
2001-02-01	Feb 2001	0.44	4.66	5.1
2001-03-01	Mar 2001	0.54	4.34	4.89
2001-04-01	Apr 2001	0.91	4.23	5.14
2001-05-01	May 2001	1.13	4.26	5.39

Rows × columns: 604 × 5
Period covered: 1976-06-01 to 2026-09-01
Computed: 2026-09-19
Completeness: No missing values
Source: US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence: Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats: JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for spread_monthly, derived from the stored result.
Column	Type	Range	Notes
`month`	date	1976-06-01 to 2026-09-01
`month_label`	text	604 distinct values (Apr 1977, Apr 1978, Apr 1979…)
`spread_2s10s`	number	-2.14 to 2.83
`y2_yield`	number	0.12 to 16.46	ratio or rate
`y10_yield`	number	0.62 to 15.32	ratio or rate

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on 2026-09-19, and the query below is what returned them.

the exact SQL behind every number

SELECT
    toStartOfMonth(date)                                                  AS month,
    formatDateTime(month, '%b %Y')                                        AS month_label,
    round(avg(toFloat64(yield_10_year) - toFloat64(yield_2_year)), 2)     AS spread_2s10s,
    round(avg(toFloat64(yield_2_year)), 2)                                AS y2_yield,
    round(avg(toFloat64(yield_10_year)), 2)                               AS y10_yield
FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
WHERE yield_2_year > 0 AND yield_10_year > 0
GROUP BY month
ORDER BY month

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