The 2s10s over the trailing six months, with the 2-year and 10-year moves that produced it

Name: The 2s10s over the trailing six months, with the 2-year and 10-year moves that produced it
Creator: Strasmore
Published: 2026-09-19
License: https://www.strasmore.com/terms/

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-09-19, from What Happens When the Yield Curve Un-Inverts.

as of 2026-09-19 series 26×8read in context →

The 2s10s over the trailing six months, with the 2-year and 10-year moves that produced it — 26 rows by 8 columns, computed 2026-09-19 from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
week	week_label	y2_yield	y10_yield	spread_2s10s	y2_move_bp	y10_move_bp	steepening_type
2026-03-23	Mar 23	3.88	4.44	0.56	0	0	no steepening over the window
2026-03-30	Mar 30	3.84	4.35	0.51	-4	-9	no steepening over the window
2026-04-06	Apr 6	3.81	4.31	0.5	-7	-13	no steepening over the window
2026-04-13	Apr 13	3.71	4.26	0.55	-17	-18	no steepening over the window
2026-04-20	Apr 20	3.78	4.31	0.53	-10	-13	no steepening over the window
2026-04-27	Apr 27	3.88	4.39	0.51	0	-5	no steepening over the window
2026-05-04	May 4	3.9	4.38	0.48	2	-6	no steepening over the window
2026-05-11	May 11	4.09	4.59	0.5	21	15	no steepening over the window
2026-05-18	May 18	4.13	4.56	0.43	25	12	no steepening over the window
2026-05-25	May 25	3.98	4.45	0.47	10	1	no steepening over the window
2026-06-01	Jun 1	4.17	4.55	0.38	29	11	no steepening over the window
2026-06-08	Jun 8	4.09	4.48	0.39	21	4	no steepening over the window
2026-06-15	Jun 15	4.19	4.46	0.27	31	2	no steepening over the window
2026-06-22	Jun 22	4.07	4.38	0.31	19	-6	no steepening over the window
2026-06-29	Jun 29	4.14	4.49	0.35	26	5	no steepening over the window
2026-07-06	Jul 6	4.21	4.56	0.35	33	12	no steepening over the window
2026-07-13	Jul 13	4.18	4.55	0.37	30	11	no steepening over the window
2026-07-20	Jul 20	4.33	4.69	0.36	45	25	no steepening over the window
2026-07-27	Jul 27	4.28	4.75	0.47	40	31	no steepening over the window
2026-08-03	Aug 3	4.19	4.65	0.46	31	21	no steepening over the window
2026-08-10	Aug 10	4.17	4.68	0.51	29	24	no steepening over the window
2026-08-17	Aug 17	4.24	4.74	0.5	36	30	no steepening over the window
2026-08-24	Aug 24	4.34	4.73	0.39	46	29	no steepening over the window
2026-08-31	Aug 31	4.37	4.78	0.41	49	34	no steepening over the window
2026-09-07	Sep 7	4.63	4.96	0.33	75	52	no steepening over the window
2026-09-14	Sep 14	4.67	4.94	0.27	79	50	no steepening over the window

Rows × columns: 26 × 8
Period covered: 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-14
Computed: 2026-09-19
Completeness: No missing values
Source: US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence: Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats: JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for The 2s10s over the trailing six months, with the 2-year and 10-year moves that produced it, derived from the stored result.
Column	Type	Range	Notes
`week`	date	2026-03-23 to 2026-09-14
`week_label`	text	26 distinct values (Apr 13, Apr 20, Apr 27…)
`y2_yield`	number	3.71 to 4.67	ratio or rate
`y10_yield`	number	4.26 to 4.96	ratio or rate
`spread_2s10s`	number	0.27 to 0.56
`y2_move_bp`	number	-17 to 79
`y10_move_bp`	number	-18 to 52
`steepening_type`	text	1 distinct value (no steepening over the window)

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on 2026-09-19, and the query below is what returned them.

the exact SQL behind every number

SELECT
    week,
    week_label,
    y2_yield,
    y10_yield,
    spread_2s10s,
    y2_move_bp,
    y10_move_bp,
    multiIf(
        (y10_move_bp - y2_move_bp) <= 0,                        'no steepening over the window',
        y2_move_bp < 0 AND abs(y2_move_bp) >= abs(y10_move_bp), 'bull steepener (2-year fell most)',
        'bear steepener (10-year rose most)'
    ) AS steepening_type
FROM
(
    SELECT
        week,
        week_label,
        y2_yield,
        y10_yield,
        spread_2s10s,
        round((y2_yield  - first_value(y2_yield)  OVER (ORDER BY week ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW)) * 100) AS y2_move_bp,
        round((y10_yield - first_value(y10_yield) OVER (ORDER BY week ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW)) * 100) AS y10_move_bp
    FROM
    (
        SELECT
            toStartOfWeek(date, 1)                                                   AS week,
            formatDateTime(week, '%b %e')                                            AS week_label,
            round(argMax(ifNull(toFloat64(yield_2_year), 0.), date), 2)              AS y2_yield,
            round(argMax(ifNull(toFloat64(yield_10_year), 0.), date), 2)             AS y10_yield,
            round(argMax(ifNull(toFloat64(yield_10_year), 0.) - ifNull(toFloat64(yield_2_year), 0.), date), 2) AS spread_2s10s
        FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
        WHERE date >= today() - 182
          AND yield_2_year > 0 AND yield_10_year > 0
        GROUP BY week
    )
)
ORDER BY week

Run your own version of this

The same 22 years of US equities and 12 years of options data are queryable in SQL or plain English. A free account runs 100 queries a day and takes no card.

More from this analysisWhat Happens When the Yield Curve Un-Inverts

The 2s10s spread by month, full history series 604×5 → Which leg did the work: 2-year and 10-year moves over the 91 days before each crossing table 7×9 → Every 2s10s un-inversion: the crossing and the spread 3, 6 and 12 months later table 7×8 → SPY's change from the crossing-day close, 3, 6 and 12 months after each un-inversion table 2×5 → 3m10y and 2s10s spreads, monthly averages over twenty years series 241×4 → 3-month and 10-year yields with both spreads, last 90 days series 62×6 → See all 2,401 queries →