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Every 2s10s un-inversion: the crossing and the spread 3, 6 and 12 months later

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-09-19, from What Happens When the Yield Curve Un-Inverts.

as of table 7×8read in context →
Every 2s10s un-inversion: the crossing and the spread 3, 6 and 12 months later — 7 rows by 8 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
episodecrossed_oncrossed_on_labelnegative_sessions_priortrough_spreadspread_3m_laterspread_6m_laterspread_12m_later
May 19801980-05-02May 2, 1980423-2.410.98-0.62-0.9
Oct 19811981-10-28Oct 28, 1981453-2.41-0.06-0.220.88
Jul 19821982-07-19Jul 19, 1982400-1.70.781.110.67
Jun 19891989-06-30Jun 30, 1989132-0.45-0.150.060.18
Dec 20002000-12-27Dec 27, 2000226-0.520.671.21.94
Mar 20072007-03-21Mar 21, 2007220-0.190.170.531.75
Sep 20242024-09-04Sep 4, 2024538-1.080.060.290.58
Rows × columns
7 × 8
Period covered
to
Computed
Completeness
No missing values
Source
US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence
Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats
JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for Every 2s10s un-inversion: the crossing and the spread 3, 6 and 12 months later, derived from the stored result.
ColumnTypeRangeNotes
episode text 7 distinct values (Dec 2000, Jul 1982, Jun 1989…)
crossed_on date 1980-05-02 to 2024-09-04
crossed_on_label text 7 distinct values (Dec 27, 2000, Jul 19, 1982, Jun 30, 1989…)
negative_sessions_prior number 132 to 538
trough_spread number -2.41 to -0.19
spread_3m_later number -0.15 to 0.98
spread_6m_later number -0.62 to 1.2
spread_12m_later number -0.9 to 1.94

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.

the exact SQL behind every number
WITH
daily AS
(
    SELECT
        date,
        dateDiff('day', toDate('1970-01-01'), date)   AS dnum,
        ifNull(toFloat64(max(yield_2_year)), 0.)      AS y2,
        ifNull(toFloat64(max(yield_10_year)), 0.)     AS y10,
        y10 - y2                                      AS spread
    FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
    WHERE yield_2_year > 0 AND yield_10_year > 0
    GROUP BY date
),
scored AS
(
    SELECT
        date, dnum, y2, y10, spread,
        count()         OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 60 PRECEDING AND 1 PRECEDING) AS rows_prior,
        sum(spread < 0) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 60 PRECEDING AND 1 PRECEDING) AS neg_prior,
        sum(spread > 0) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN CURRENT ROW AND 20 FOLLOWING) AS pos_next
    FROM daily
),
candidates AS
(
    SELECT
        date, dnum, y2, y10, spread,
        lagInFrame(dnum, 1, toInt64(-100000)) OVER (ORDER BY dnum ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_dnum
    FROM scored
    WHERE spread > 0 AND rows_prior = 60 AND neg_prior >= 35 AND pos_next >= 19
),
episodes AS
(
    SELECT date AS cross_date, y2, y10, spread
    FROM candidates
    WHERE dnum - prev_dnum > 180
      AND date <= today() - 380
)
SELECT
    formatDateTime(e.cross_date, '%b %Y')                                       AS episode,
    toString(toDate(e.cross_date))                                              AS crossed_on,
    concat(formatDateTime(e.cross_date, '%b '), toString(toDayOfMonth(e.cross_date)), ', ', toString(toYear(e.cross_date))) AS crossed_on_label,
    countIf(d.spread < 0 AND d.date < e.cross_date)                             AS negative_sessions_prior,
    round(minIf(d.spread, d.date < e.cross_date), 2)                            AS trough_spread,
    round(argMinIf(d.spread, d.date, d.date >= addDays(e.cross_date, 91)), 2)   AS spread_3m_later,
    round(argMinIf(d.spread, d.date, d.date >= addDays(e.cross_date, 182)), 2)  AS spread_6m_later,
    round(argMinIf(d.spread, d.date, d.date >= addDays(e.cross_date, 365)), 2)  AS spread_12m_later
FROM episodes AS e
CROSS JOIN daily AS d
WHERE d.date BETWEEN addDays(e.cross_date, -800) AND addDays(e.cross_date, 380)
GROUP BY e.cross_date
HAVING countIf(d.date >= addDays(e.cross_date, 365)) > 0
ORDER BY e.cross_date

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