Every 2s10s un-inversion: the crossing and the spread 3, 6 and 12 months later
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-09-19, from What Happens When the Yield Curve Un-Inverts.
| episode | crossed_on | crossed_on_label | negative_sessions_prior | trough_spread | spread_3m_later | spread_6m_later | spread_12m_later |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1980 | 1980-05-02 | May 2, 1980 | 423 | -2.41 | 0.98 | -0.62 | -0.9 |
| Oct 1981 | 1981-10-28 | Oct 28, 1981 | 453 | -2.41 | -0.06 | -0.22 | 0.88 |
| Jul 1982 | 1982-07-19 | Jul 19, 1982 | 400 | -1.7 | 0.78 | 1.11 | 0.67 |
| Jun 1989 | 1989-06-30 | Jun 30, 1989 | 132 | -0.45 | -0.15 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Dec 2000 | 2000-12-27 | Dec 27, 2000 | 226 | -0.52 | 0.67 | 1.2 | 1.94 |
| Mar 2007 | 2007-03-21 | Mar 21, 2007 | 220 | -0.19 | 0.17 | 0.53 | 1.75 |
| Sep 2024 | 2024-09-04 | Sep 4, 2024 | 538 | -1.08 | 0.06 | 0.29 | 0.58 |
- Rows × columns
- 7 × 8
- Period covered
- to
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
episode |
text | 7 distinct values (Dec 2000, Jul 1982, Jun 1989…) | |
crossed_on |
date | 1980-05-02 to 2024-09-04 | |
crossed_on_label |
text | 7 distinct values (Dec 27, 2000, Jul 19, 1982, Jun 30, 1989…) | |
negative_sessions_prior |
number | 132 to 538 | |
trough_spread |
number | -2.41 to -0.19 | |
spread_3m_later |
number | -0.15 to 0.98 | |
spread_6m_later |
number | -0.62 to 1.2 | |
spread_12m_later |
number | -0.9 to 1.94 |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
the exact SQL behind every number
WITH
daily AS
(
SELECT
date,
dateDiff('day', toDate('1970-01-01'), date) AS dnum,
ifNull(toFloat64(max(yield_2_year)), 0.) AS y2,
ifNull(toFloat64(max(yield_10_year)), 0.) AS y10,
y10 - y2 AS spread
FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
WHERE yield_2_year > 0 AND yield_10_year > 0
GROUP BY date
),
scored AS
(
SELECT
date, dnum, y2, y10, spread,
count() OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 60 PRECEDING AND 1 PRECEDING) AS rows_prior,
sum(spread < 0) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 60 PRECEDING AND 1 PRECEDING) AS neg_prior,
sum(spread > 0) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN CURRENT ROW AND 20 FOLLOWING) AS pos_next
FROM daily
),
candidates AS
(
SELECT
date, dnum, y2, y10, spread,
lagInFrame(dnum, 1, toInt64(-100000)) OVER (ORDER BY dnum ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_dnum
FROM scored
WHERE spread > 0 AND rows_prior = 60 AND neg_prior >= 35 AND pos_next >= 19
),
episodes AS
(
SELECT date AS cross_date, y2, y10, spread
FROM candidates
WHERE dnum - prev_dnum > 180
AND date <= today() - 380
)
SELECT
formatDateTime(e.cross_date, '%b %Y') AS episode,
toString(toDate(e.cross_date)) AS crossed_on,
concat(formatDateTime(e.cross_date, '%b '), toString(toDayOfMonth(e.cross_date)), ', ', toString(toYear(e.cross_date))) AS crossed_on_label,
countIf(d.spread < 0 AND d.date < e.cross_date) AS negative_sessions_prior,
round(minIf(d.spread, d.date < e.cross_date), 2) AS trough_spread,
round(argMinIf(d.spread, d.date, d.date >= addDays(e.cross_date, 91)), 2) AS spread_3m_later,
round(argMinIf(d.spread, d.date, d.date >= addDays(e.cross_date, 182)), 2) AS spread_6m_later,
round(argMinIf(d.spread, d.date, d.date >= addDays(e.cross_date, 365)), 2) AS spread_12m_later
FROM episodes AS e
CROSS JOIN daily AS d
WHERE d.date BETWEEN addDays(e.cross_date, -800) AND addDays(e.cross_date, 380)
GROUP BY e.cross_date
HAVING countIf(d.date >= addDays(e.cross_date, 365)) > 0
ORDER BY e.cross_date
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