The 2s10s over the trailing six months, with the 2-year and 10-year moves that produced it
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-11-01, from What Happens When the Yield Curve Un-Inverts.
| week | week_label | y2_yield | y10_yield | spread_2s10s | y2_move_bp | y10_move_bp | steepening_type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | May 4 | 3.9 | 4.38 | 0.48 | 0 | 0 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-05-11 | May 11 | 4.09 | 4.59 | 0.5 | 19 | 21 | bear steepener (10-year rose most) |
| 2026-05-18 | May 18 | 4.13 | 4.56 | 0.43 | 23 | 18 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-05-25 | May 25 | 3.98 | 4.45 | 0.47 | 8 | 7 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-06-01 | Jun 1 | 4.17 | 4.55 | 0.38 | 27 | 17 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-06-08 | Jun 8 | 4.09 | 4.48 | 0.39 | 19 | 10 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-06-15 | Jun 15 | 4.19 | 4.46 | 0.27 | 29 | 8 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-06-22 | Jun 22 | 4.07 | 4.38 | 0.31 | 17 | 0 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-06-29 | Jun 29 | 4.14 | 4.49 | 0.35 | 24 | 11 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-07-06 | Jul 6 | 4.21 | 4.56 | 0.35 | 31 | 18 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-07-13 | Jul 13 | 4.18 | 4.55 | 0.37 | 28 | 17 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-07-20 | Jul 20 | 4.33 | 4.69 | 0.36 | 43 | 31 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-07-27 | Jul 27 | 4.28 | 4.75 | 0.47 | 38 | 37 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-08-03 | Aug 3 | 4.19 | 4.65 | 0.46 | 29 | 27 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-08-10 | Aug 10 | 4.17 | 4.68 | 0.51 | 27 | 30 | bear steepener (10-year rose most) |
| 2026-08-17 | Aug 17 | 4.24 | 4.74 | 0.5 | 34 | 36 | bear steepener (10-year rose most) |
| 2026-08-24 | Aug 24 | 4.34 | 4.73 | 0.39 | 44 | 35 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-08-31 | Aug 31 | 4.37 | 4.78 | 0.41 | 47 | 40 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-09-07 | Sep 7 | 4.63 | 4.96 | 0.33 | 73 | 58 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-09-14 | Sep 14 | 4.76 | 5.01 | 0.25 | 86 | 63 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-09-21 | Sep 21 | 4.81 | 5.17 | 0.36 | 91 | 79 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-09-28 | Sep 28 | 4.83 | 5.28 | 0.45 | 93 | 90 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-10-05 | Oct 5 | 4.8 | 5.24 | 0.44 | 90 | 86 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-10-12 | Oct 12 | 4.74 | 5.09 | 0.35 | 84 | 71 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-10-19 | Oct 19 | 4.69 | 5 | 0.31 | 79 | 62 | no steepening over the window |
| 2026-10-26 | Oct 26 | 4.61 | 4.98 | 0.37 | 71 | 60 | no steepening over the window |
- Rows × columns
- 26 × 8
- Period covered
- to
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
week |
date | 2026-05-04 to 2026-10-26 | |
week_label |
text | 26 distinct values (Aug 10, Aug 17, Aug 24…) | |
y2_yield |
number | 3.9 to 4.83 | ratio or rate |
y10_yield |
number | 4.38 to 5.28 | ratio or rate |
spread_2s10s |
number | 0.25 to 0.51 | |
y2_move_bp |
number | 0 to 93 | |
y10_move_bp |
number | 0 to 90 | |
steepening_type |
text | 2 distinct values |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
SELECT
week,
week_label,
y2_yield,
y10_yield,
spread_2s10s,
y2_move_bp,
y10_move_bp,
multiIf(
(y10_move_bp - y2_move_bp) <= 0, 'no steepening over the window',
y2_move_bp < 0 AND abs(y2_move_bp) >= abs(y10_move_bp), 'bull steepener (2-year fell most)',
'bear steepener (10-year rose most)'
) AS steepening_type
FROM
(
SELECT
week,
week_label,
y2_yield,
y10_yield,
spread_2s10s,
round((y2_yield - first_value(y2_yield) OVER (ORDER BY week ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW)) * 100) AS y2_move_bp,
round((y10_yield - first_value(y10_yield) OVER (ORDER BY week ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW)) * 100) AS y10_move_bp
FROM
(
SELECT
toStartOfWeek(date, 1) AS week,
formatDateTime(week, '%b %e') AS week_label,
round(argMax(ifNull(toFloat64(yield_2_year), 0.), date), 2) AS y2_yield,
round(argMax(ifNull(toFloat64(yield_10_year), 0.), date), 2) AS y10_yield,
round(argMax(ifNull(toFloat64(yield_10_year), 0.) - ifNull(toFloat64(yield_2_year), 0.), date), 2) AS spread_2s10s
FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
WHERE date >= today() - 182
AND yield_2_year > 0 AND yield_10_year > 0
GROUP BY week
)
)
ORDER BY week
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