Every half-year since 1976: the 2y and 10y change, the twist between them, and the half's lowest 2s10s print

Name: Every half-year since 1976: the 2y and 10y change, the twist between them, and the half's lowest 2s10s print
Creator: Strasmore
Published: 2026-07-26
License: https://www.strasmore.com/terms/

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-07-26, from Treasury Yield Curve, H1 2026: Twist, Not Shift.

as of 2026-07-26 table 100×7read in context →

Every half-year since 1976: the 2y and 10y change, the twist between them, and the half's lowest 2s10s print — 100 rows by 7 columns, computed 2026-07-26 from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
period_start	half	prints	change_2y_bp	change_10y_bp	twist_bp	min_2s10s_bp
1976-07-01	1976 H2	125	-168	-107	-61	85
1977-01-01	1977 H1	126	66	36	30	106
1977-07-01	1977 H2	123	110	44	66	32
1978-01-01	1978 H1	124	124	79	45	9
1978-07-01	1978 H2	124	154	56	98	-86
1979-01-01	1979 H1	124	-103	-37	-66	-82
1979-07-01	1979 H2	124	230	157	73	-169
1980-01-01	1980 H1	125	-242	-41	-201	-241
1980-07-01	1980 H2	125	405	230	175	-170
1981-01-01	1981 H1	124	156	144	12	-170
1981-07-01	1981 H2	125	-131	-6	-125	-155
1982-01-01	1982 H1	124	79	25	54	-71
1982-07-01	1982 H2	125	-512	-404	-108	-24
1983-01-01	1983 H1	126	94	64	30	52
1983-07-01	1983 H2	124	68	89	-21	64
1984-01-01	1984 H1	125	230	198	32	52
1984-07-01	1984 H2	124	-315	-232	-83	20
1985-01-01	1985 H1	123	-136	-145	9	106
1985-07-01	1985 H2	125	-68	-119	51	100
1986-01-01	1986 H1	124	-121	-169	48	42
1986-07-01	1986 H2	126	-45	-14	-31	56
1987-01-01	1987 H1	124	118	120	-2	75
1987-07-01	1987 H2	126	33	47	-14	83
1988-01-01	1988 H1	125	25	-1	26	80
1988-07-01	1988 H2	125	116	37	79	-3
1989-01-01	1989 H1	125	-113	-113	0	-45
1989-07-01	1989 H2	125	-15	-16	1	-20
1990-01-01	1990 H1	125	37	49	-12	-14
1990-07-01	1990 H2	125	-110	-35	-75	17
1991-01-01	1991 H1	124	-18	27	-45	85
1991-07-01	1991 H2	126	-220	-155	-65	127
1992-01-01	1992 H1	125	6	36	-30	175
1992-07-01	1992 H2	126	-26	-40	14	201
1993-01-01	1993 H1	124	-45	-80	35	171
1993-07-01	1993 H2	126	26	3	23	138
1994-01-01	1994 H1	124	189	142	47	112
1994-07-01	1994 H2	125	150	50	100	9
1995-01-01	1995 H1	125	-194	-167	-27	15
1995-07-01	1995 H2	125	-61	-63	2	30
1996-01-01	1996 H1	126	93	113	-20	41
1996-07-01	1996 H2	126	-27	-31	4	45
1997-01-01	1997 H1	124	11	-3	14	35
1997-07-01	1997 H2	126	-36	-70	34	3
1998-01-01	1998 H1	124	-10	-23	13	-7
1998-07-01	1998 H2	126	-92	-79	-13	-4
1999-01-01	1999 H1	125	95	112	-17	5
1999-07-01	1999 H2	126	66	60	6	12
2000-01-01	2000 H1	126	0	-55	55	-52
2000-07-01	2000 H2	125	-120	-88	-32	-49
2001-01-01	2001 H1	125	-62	50	-112	5
2001-07-01	2001 H2	123	-114	-30	-84	111
2002-01-01	2002 H1	124	-32	-34	2	163
2002-07-01	2002 H2	126	-127	-102	-25	176
2003-01-01	2003 H1	124	-48	-53	5	196
2003-07-01	2003 H2	126	54	71	-17	226
2004-01-01	2004 H1	124	76	24	52	187
2004-07-01	2004 H2	126	44	-33	77	112
2005-01-01	2005 H1	125	56	-29	85	28
2005-07-01	2005 H2	125	65	33	32	-2
2006-01-01	2006 H1	125	82	78	4	-16
2006-07-01	2006 H2	125	-35	-44	9	-19
2007-01-01	2007 H1	126	7	35	-28	-15
2007-07-01	2007 H2	125	-181	-96	-85	14
2008-01-01	2008 H1	125	-25	8	-33	103
2008-07-01	2008 H2	126	-187	-176	-11	127
2009-01-01	2009 H1	124	23	107	-84	150
2009-07-01	2009 H2	126	9	30	-21	231
2010-01-01	2010 H1	125	-48	-88	40	236
2010-07-01	2010 H2	126	-2	34	-36	199
2011-01-01	2011 H1	125	-16	-18	2	252
2011-07-01	2011 H2	125	-25	-133	108	152
2012-01-01	2012 H1	126	6	-30	36	122
2012-07-01	2012 H2	124	-5	17	-22	121
2013-01-01	2013 H1	124	9	66	-57	146
2013-07-01	2013 H2	126	4	54	-50	214
2014-01-01	2014 H1	124	8	-47	55	206
2014-07-01	2014 H2	126	20	-41	61	146
2015-01-01	2015 H1	125	-2	23	-25	119
2015-07-01	2015 H2	126	37	-16	53	119
2016-01-01	2016 H1	125	-44	-75	31	85
2016-07-01	2016 H2	125	61	99	-38	76
2017-01-01	2017 H1	125	16	-14	30	78
2017-07-01	2017 H2	125	48	5	43	51
2018-01-01	2018 H1	125	60	39	21	31
2018-07-01	2018 H2	124	-9	-18	9	11
2019-01-01	2019 H1	124	-75	-66	-9	13
2019-07-01	2019 H2	126	-20	-11	-9	-4
2020-01-01	2020 H1	125	-142	-122	-20	12
2020-07-01	2020 H2	126	-4	24	-28	41
2021-01-01	2021 H1	125	14	52	-38	82
2021-07-01	2021 H2	126	48	4	44	72
2022-01-01	2022 H1	124	214	135	79	-5
2022-07-01	2022 H2	125	157	100	57	-84
2023-01-01	2023 H1	125	47	2	45	-107
2023-07-01	2023 H2	125	-71	2	-73	-108
2024-01-01	2024 H1	124	38	41	-3	-47
2024-07-01	2024 H2	126	-52	10	-62	-35
2025-01-01	2025 H1	123	-53	-33	-20	20
2025-07-01	2025 H2	126	-31	-8	-23	43
2026-01-01	2026 H1	124	67	25	42	27

Rows × columns: 100 × 7
Period covered: 1976-07-01 to 2026-01-01
Computed: 2026-07-26
Completeness: No missing values
Source: US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence: Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats: JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for Every half-year since 1976: the 2y and 10y change, the twist between them, and the half's lowest 2s10s print, derived from the stored result.
Column	Type	Range
`period_start`	date	1976-07-01 to 2026-01-01
`half`	text	100 distinct values (1976 H2, 1977 H1, 1977 H2…)
`prints`	number	123 to 126
`change_2y_bp`	number	-512 to 405
`change_10y_bp`	number	-404 to 230
`twist_bp`	number	-201 to 175
`min_2s10s_bp`	number	-241 to 252

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on 2026-07-26, and the query below is what returned them.

the exact SQL behind every number

SELECT concat(toString(toYear(date)), if(toMonth(date) <= 6, '-01-01', '-07-01')) AS period_start,
       concat(toString(toYear(date)), if(toMonth(date) <= 6, ' H1', ' H2')) AS half,
       count() AS prints,
       round((argMax(yield_2_year, date) - argMin(yield_2_year, date)) * 100, 0) AS change_2y_bp,
       round((argMax(yield_10_year, date) - argMin(yield_10_year, date)) * 100, 0) AS change_10y_bp,
       round((argMax(yield_2_year, date) - argMin(yield_2_year, date)) * 100
           - (argMax(yield_10_year, date) - argMin(yield_10_year, date)) * 100, 0) AS twist_bp,
       round(min(yield_10_year - yield_2_year) * 100, 0) AS min_2s10s_bp
FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
WHERE date >= toDate('1976-07-01') AND date <= toDate('2026-06-30')
  AND isNotNull(yield_2_year) AND isNotNull(yield_10_year)
GROUP BY period_start, half
HAVING prints >= 100
ORDER BY period_start ASC

Run your own version of this

The same 22 years of US equities and 12 years of options data are queryable in SQL or plain English. A free account runs 100 queries a day and takes no card.

More from this analysisTreasury Yield Curve, H1 2026: Twist, Not Shift

The 2s10s spread, every print of the half table 124×2 → The H1 2026 move per maturity, split into quarters: the hump sits squarely on the 2-year ranking 7×4 → Seven maturities, three single-day snapshots: the half's first print, the last March print, and the last June print ranking 7×4 → The rank receipt: H1 2026's twist against every prior half, by absolute size scalar 1×6 → The 30-year's half: start, end, the first and last 5% prints, time spent at or above 5%, and the high scalar 1×8 → The 2s10s slope receipt: start, end, minimum (with its date), maximum, and print count scalar 1×6 → See all 2,170 queries →