{"slug":"how-event-contracts-settle","qid":"price_vs_payoff","label":"Traded price against intrinsic value, by days to expiry","post_title":"How Event Contracts Settle: Payout and Fees","post_url":"/blog/how-event-contracts-settle#q-price_vs_payoff","columns":["days_to_expiry","avg_traded_price","avg_intrinsic_value","avg_gap"],"rows":[{"days_to_expiry":1,"avg_traded_price":3.65,"avg_intrinsic_value":2.52,"avg_gap":1.13},{"days_to_expiry":2,"avg_traded_price":4.53,"avg_intrinsic_value":2.77,"avg_gap":1.76},{"days_to_expiry":3,"avg_traded_price":5.1,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.06,"avg_gap":2.05},{"days_to_expiry":4,"avg_traded_price":5.28,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.08,"avg_gap":2.2},{"days_to_expiry":5,"avg_traded_price":5.69,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.08,"avg_gap":2.61},{"days_to_expiry":6,"avg_traded_price":6.29,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.13,"avg_gap":3.16},{"days_to_expiry":7,"avg_traded_price":6.83,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.27,"avg_gap":3.56},{"days_to_expiry":8,"avg_traded_price":7.16,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.17,"avg_gap":4},{"days_to_expiry":9,"avg_traded_price":7.49,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.1,"avg_gap":4.39},{"days_to_expiry":10,"avg_traded_price":7.87,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.22,"avg_gap":4.66},{"days_to_expiry":11,"avg_traded_price":8.01,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.17,"avg_gap":4.85},{"days_to_expiry":12,"avg_traded_price":7.96,"avg_intrinsic_value":2.77,"avg_gap":5.19},{"days_to_expiry":13,"avg_traded_price":8.28,"avg_intrinsic_value":2.63,"avg_gap":5.65},{"days_to_expiry":14,"avg_traded_price":9.13,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.28,"avg_gap":5.86},{"days_to_expiry":15,"avg_traded_price":9.79,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.38,"avg_gap":6.41},{"days_to_expiry":16,"avg_traded_price":9.77,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.27,"avg_gap":6.5},{"days_to_expiry":17,"avg_traded_price":10.35,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.32,"avg_gap":7.03},{"days_to_expiry":18,"avg_traded_price":10.74,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.34,"avg_gap":7.41},{"days_to_expiry":19,"avg_traded_price":12.99,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.35,"avg_gap":9.64},{"days_to_expiry":20,"avg_traded_price":12.16,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.34,"avg_gap":8.82},{"days_to_expiry":21,"avg_traded_price":11.53,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.39,"avg_gap":8.14},{"days_to_expiry":22,"avg_traded_price":11.67,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.29,"avg_gap":8.38},{"days_to_expiry":23,"avg_traded_price":11.9,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.37,"avg_gap":8.53},{"days_to_expiry":24,"avg_traded_price":12.05,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.26,"avg_gap":8.8},{"days_to_expiry":25,"avg_traded_price":12.34,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.26,"avg_gap":9.08},{"days_to_expiry":26,"avg_traded_price":12.07,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.19,"avg_gap":8.88},{"days_to_expiry":27,"avg_traded_price":13.36,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.43,"avg_gap":9.93},{"days_to_expiry":28,"avg_traded_price":12.66,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.16,"avg_gap":9.5},{"days_to_expiry":29,"avg_traded_price":13.17,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.26,"avg_gap":9.91},{"days_to_expiry":30,"avg_traded_price":13.41,"avg_intrinsic_value":3.23,"avg_gap":10.18}],"shape":"table","sql":"SELECT\n    days_to_expiry,\n    round(avg(price), 2)                   AS avg_traded_price,\n    round(avg(payoff_now), 2)              AS avg_intrinsic_value,\n    round(avg(abs(price - payoff_now)), 2) AS avg_gap\nFROM\n(\n    SELECT\n        days_to_expiry,\n        toFloat64(option_close) AS price,\n        greatest(\n            if(option_type IN ('call', 'C'),\n               toFloat64(underlying_close) - toFloat64(strike_price),\n               toFloat64(strike_price) - toFloat64(underlying_close)),\n            0.0) AS payoff_now\n    FROM global_markets.options_greeks\n    WHERE underlying_symbol = 'SPY'\n      AND date >= '2026-01-02'\n      AND date <  '2026-07-01'\n      AND volume > 0\n      AND iv_converged = 1\n      AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 0 AND 30\n      AND abs(toFloat64(strike_price) / toFloat64(underlying_close) - 1) < 0.02\n)\nGROUP BY days_to_expiry\nORDER BY days_to_expiry","computed_at":"2026-08-09T15:34:00.747230+00:00","elapsed":0.003373473}