Strasmore Research
市場回顧 Matt Connor作者： Matt Connor · 更新於 2026-07-25

2026年7月2日市場回顧

假期前資金輪動：那斯達克下跌但漲跌比正向，科技股墊底，記憶體連續第二天重挫，股票分割造成暴跌假象。

Thursday, July 2, 2026 — the last session before the Independence Day closure — was a rotation day wearing a selloff's headline. QQQ printed -1.71% while DIA rose 1.04%, and breadth was POSITIVE: 3398 liquid names rose against 2758, 54.6% of the tape green while the growth index fell. Eight of eleven sector funds closed higher; the selling sat in tech and the memory complex that broke the day before.

記分板

查詢SPY / QQQ / DIA / IWM — 7月2日 對比 7月1日收盤，一般交易時段
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
WITH prior AS (
    SELECT ticker, argMax(close, window_start) AS prior_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'QQQ', 'DIA', 'IWM')
      AND window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
    GROUP BY ticker
),
sess AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           argMin(open, window_start) AS day_open,
           argMax(close, window_start) AS day_close,
           max(high) AS day_high,
           min(low) AS day_low,
           round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_traded_m
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'QQQ', 'DIA', 'IWM')
      AND window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    s.ticker AS ticker,
    round(toFloat64(p.prior_close), 2) AS prior_close,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_open), 2) AS day_open,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_close), 2) AS day_close,
    round((toFloat64(s.day_close) / toFloat64(p.prior_close) - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_change,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_high), 2) AS day_high,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_low), 2) AS day_low,
    s.shares_traded_m AS shares_traded_m
FROM sess s
JOIN prior p ON s.ticker = p.ticker
ORDER BY s.ticker

DIA 報 1.04% 對比 QQQ 報 -1.71% 一句話總結今日盤勢——工業股與成長股單日報酬差距將近三個百分點。SPY 居中收在 -0.12%；IWM 收 -0.59%。

這一天算不尋常嗎？

同一面板用兩個視角：SPY 的開盤到收盤走勢，以及 QQQ 的收盤對收盤走勢，各自以絕對值大小與過去一個月排名（排名 1 為最大）。

查詢SPY 與 QQQ 在過去一個月交易日的排名（排名1 = 絕對變動最大）
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
WITH per_day AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           (argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) / argMin(toFloat64(open), window_start) - 1) * 100 AS oc_pct,
           argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) AS rth_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'QQQ')
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-02 00:00:00')
      AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    GROUP BY ticker, d
),
with_prev AS (
    SELECT ticker, d, oc_pct,
           lagInFrame(rth_close) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY d) AS prev_close,
           (rth_close / lagInFrame(rth_close) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY d) - 1) * 100 AS cc_pct
    FROM per_day
)
SELECT
    round(anyIf(oc_pct, ticker = 'SPY' AND d = toDate('2026-07-02')), 2) AS spy_open_to_close_pct,
    arrayCount(x -> x > abs(anyIf(oc_pct, ticker = 'SPY' AND d = toDate('2026-07-02'))),
               groupArrayIf(abs(oc_pct), ticker = 'SPY' AND d != toDate('2026-07-02'))) + 1 AS spy_abs_move_rank,
    countIf(ticker = 'SPY') AS spy_sessions_compared,
    round(anyIf(cc_pct, ticker = 'QQQ' AND d = toDate('2026-07-02')), 2) AS qqq_close_over_close_pct,
    arrayCount(x -> x > abs(anyIf(cc_pct, ticker = 'QQQ' AND d = toDate('2026-07-02'))),
               groupArrayIf(abs(cc_pct), ticker = 'QQQ' AND d != toDate('2026-07-02') AND isFinite(cc_pct) AND prev_close > 0)) + 1 AS qqq_abs_move_rank,
    countIf(ticker = 'QQQ' AND isFinite(cc_pct) AND prev_close > 0) AS qqq_sessions_compared,
    toString(minIf(d, ticker = 'SPY')) AS first_session
FROM with_prev

就指數層面而言，不算。SPY 的 -0.35% 開盤到收盤在過去 22 個交易日中排名第 15 ——落在後半段。QQQ 的波動較大，但仍未到極端：其 -1.71% 收盤對收盤走勢，在往前回溯至 2026-06-02、且有前一交易日收盤可比的 21 個交易日中，排名第 9 ——對這檔成長股指數來說，是落在中間區段的下跌日。7 月 2 日真正喧囂的地方，在於個股層面。

市場廣度：大盤收紅，成長股指數卻走跌

查詢7月2日成交金額達 $1M 以上標的之漲跌家數比
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
WITH per_ticker AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS day_dollar_volume
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE (window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00')
       OR (window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00')
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    countIf(day_close > prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS advancers,
    countIf(day_close < prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS decliners,
    countIf(day_close = prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS unchanged,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS liquid_tickers,
    count() AS tickers_traded_both_sessions,
    count() - countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS dropped_by_liquidity_filter,
    round(100.0 * countIf(day_close > prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000)
        / countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000), 1) AS advancer_pct,
    reverse(arrayStringConcat(extractAll(reverse(toString(countIf(day_close > prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000))), '[0-9]{1,3}'), ',')) AS advancers_fmt,
    reverse(arrayStringConcat(extractAll(reverse(toString(countIf(day_close < prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000))), '[0-9]{1,3}'), ',')) AS decliners_fmt,
    reverse(arrayStringConcat(extractAll(reverse(toString(count() - countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000))), '[0-9]{1,3}'), ',')) AS dropped_by_liquidity_filter_fmt,
    reverse(arrayStringConcat(extractAll(reverse(toString(count())), '[0-9]{1,3}'), ',')) AS tickers_traded_both_sessions_fmt
FROM per_ticker
WHERE prior_close > 0 AND day_close > 0

上漲家數 3,398，下跌家數 2,758，持平家數 63 — 在 QQQ 走跌的同時，流動性較高的個股中有 54.6% 收紅。市值加權指數與等權重廣度指標給出了不同答案；正是因為有這樣的日子，兩者才都需要一個觀察面板。此篩選條件剔除了 11,536 檔雙交易時段標的中，成交金額低於 100 萬美元的 5,317 檔。

各板塊表現：資金流向何處

廣度只計算個股數量，並未說明是哪一類股票。十一檔 SPDR 板塊 ETF 按產業劃分當日表現，最佳與最差板塊之間的差距，即為當日市場分歧度的單一數字。

查詢十一檔 SPDR 產業 ETF — 7月2日收盤 對比 7月1日收盤，一般交易時段
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
WITH per_etf AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') / 1e9, 2) AS day_dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('XLB', 'XLC', 'XLE', 'XLF', 'XLI', 'XLK', 'XLP', 'XLRE', 'XLU', 'XLV', 'XLY')
      AND ((window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'))
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_chg,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100 - min((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100) OVER (), 2) AS pts_above_worst_sector,
    day_dollar_bn
FROM per_etf
ORDER BY ticker

醫療保健（XLV）以 2.63% 的漲幅領先，其次為公用事業 2.23%、必需消費 2%、原物料 1.94%。科技（XLK）以 -2.71% 的跌幅墊底，是唯一跌幅超過一個百分點的板塊；非必需消費（-0.81%）與通訊服務（-0.13%）是另外兩個收黑的基金，其餘八個板塊收紅。最佳與最差板塊分歧度：5.34 個百分點。道瓊指數上漲、那斯達克指數下跌的分化格局遍及全市場，而不僅限於四檔巨型股——這正是為何在下跌的那斯達克指數下，上漲家數多於下跌家數的騰落線並不矛盾。

今日焦點：記憶體股連續第二天重挫

週三崩跌的族群週四跌得更兇——重點在於跌幅與同步性，而非觸發原因。

查詢記憶體與儲存類股：對比週三收盤之變動、區間時點與成交金額
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
WITH per_name AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS day_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS day_low,
        argMinIf(window_start, toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS low_bar,
        argMaxIf(window_start, toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS high_bar,
        round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') / 1e9, 2) AS day_dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('MU', 'SNDK', 'STX', 'WDC')
      AND ((window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'))
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_chg,
    round(day_high, 2) AS day_high,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(high_bar, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS day_high_et,
    round(day_low, 2) AS day_low,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(low_bar, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS day_low_et,
    round((day_high / day_low - 1) * 100, 2) AS range_pct,
    day_dollar_bn
FROM per_name
ORDER BY ticker

SanDisk 收在 -14.32%、Seagate -10.38%、Western Digital -9.92%、MU -5.57%——MU 成交額達 $51.4 億，大約是 SPY 的一倍半。MU 與 SanDisk 在尾盤才觸及日低（美東時間 15:26、15:26），Seagate 與 Western Digital 則較早見低（14:23、13:59）。背景請參閱：週三市況與MU 深度分析。

這波輪動的另一半，在巨型股身上：

查詢大型股輪動：對比週三收盤之變動、區間時點與成交金額
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
WITH per_name AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS day_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS day_low,
        argMinIf(window_start, toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS low_bar,
        argMaxIf(window_start, toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS high_bar,
        round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') / 1e9, 2) AS day_dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('AAPL', 'MSFT', 'NVDA', 'TSLA')
      AND ((window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'))
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_chg,
    round(day_high, 2) AS day_high,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(high_bar, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS day_high_et,
    round(day_low, 2) AS day_low,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(low_bar, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS day_low_et,
    round((day_high / day_low - 1) * 100, 2) AS range_pct,
    day_dollar_bn
FROM per_name
ORDER BY ticker

AAPL 一路走高，上漲 4.75%——美東時間 09:30 見低點，15:57 觸及高點，就在收盤前三分鐘——而 TSLA 則在 -7.65% 走出完全相反的鏡像走勢。MSFT 上漲 1.41%；NVDA 收在 -1.55%。同一個指數，截然不同的兩天。

資金流向何處

查詢成交量領先者雙榜：成交金額前6名、成交股數前4名（一檔重複代碼標的因待實體驗證暫不列入）
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT ticker, leaderboard, dollar_volume_bn, if(dollar_volume_bn < 1, dollar_volume_m, NULL) AS dollar_value_m, shares_m,
    round(100 * if(leaderboard = 'by dollars traded', dollar_volume_bn, shares_m)
        / max(if(leaderboard = 'by dollars traded', dollar_volume_bn, shares_m)) OVER (PARTITION BY leaderboard), 1) AS pct_of_board_leader
FROM (
    SELECT
        'by dollars traded' AS leaderboard,
        ticker,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS dollar_volume_bn,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 0) AS dollar_volume_m,
        round(sum(toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    GROUP BY ticker
    ORDER BY dollar_volume_bn DESC
    LIMIT 6
    UNION ALL
    SELECT
        'by shares traded' AS leaderboard,
        ticker,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS dollar_volume_bn,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 0) AS dollar_volume_m,
        round(sum(toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    GROUP BY ticker
    ORDER BY shares_m DESC
    LIMIT 4
)
ORDER BY leaderboard ASC, if(leaderboard = 'by dollars traded', dollar_volume_bn, shares_m) DESC

美光的 $51.4 億美元連續第四個交易日位居榜首（週一、週二、週三），對比 SPY 的 $32.7 億美元，而 SanDisk 的 $26.57 億美元則讓第二檔記憶體股擠進前四名。SOXS——這檔三倍反向半導體 ETF——以 748.2 萬股登上成交量榜首：低價股主導股數排名，高價股主導成交金額排名，而相對成交量則是將個股與其自身常態進行比較。統計基礎：7 月 2 日一般交易時段，排除一檔重複使用代碼的掛牌標的（存託憑證）。

查詢每30分鐘區間成交股數，一般交易時段（十億股）
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    formatDateTime(toStartOfInterval(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'), INTERVAL 30 MINUTE), '%H:%i') AS et_time,
    round(sum(toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS shares_bn,
    round(100 * sum(toFloat64(volume)) / max(sum(toFloat64(volume))) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_biggest_bucket
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'
GROUP BY et_time
ORDER BY et_time

開盤前半小時成交 2.13 億股，在 14:30 時出現 0.81 億股的低谷，進入假期前夕收盤時成交 2.3 億股——最後一個時段是當天成交量最大的一刻，因為收盤拍賣將被動委託單匯集為一筆成交。

選擇權交易紀錄：移位的週到期日來臨

查詢整日選擇權摘要列：成交量、當日到期、假期平移週與7月月選
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
WITH
    (
        SELECT (any(underlying_symbol), any(toFloat64(strike_price)), any(option_type),
                any(toDateOrNull(concat('20', substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6)))),
                sum(size), count(), round(avg(toFloat64(price)), 3))
        FROM global_markets.options_trades
        WHERE sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-03 00:00:00'
        GROUP BY ticker
        ORDER BY sum(size) DESC
        LIMIT 1
    ) AS top_contract,
    (
        SELECT round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2)
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'
    ) AS spy_regular_close
SELECT
    round(count() / 1e6, 2) AS option_prints_m,
    round(toFloat64(sum(size)) / 1e6, 2) AS contracts_m,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, option_type = 'C') / sum(size), 1) AS call_pct_of_volume,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260702') / sum(size), 1) AS same_day_expiry_pct,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260702')) / 1e6, 2) AS thu_jul2_expiry_contracts_m,
    countIf(substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260703') AS fri_jul3_expiry_prints,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260710')) / 1e6, 2) AS jul10_weekly_contracts_m,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260717')) / 1e6, 2) AS jul17_monthly_contracts_m,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY')) / 1e6, 2) AS spy_contracts_m,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'QQQ')) / 1e6, 2) AS qqq_contracts_m,
    top_contract.1 AS top_contract_underlying,
    top_contract.2 AS top_contract_strike,
    top_contract.3 AS top_contract_type,
    top_contract.4 AS top_contract_expiry,
    top_contract.5 AS top_contract_volume,
    reverse(arrayStringConcat(extractAll(reverse(toString(assumeNotNull(top_contract.5))), '[0-9]{1,3}'), ',')) AS top_contract_volume_fmt,
    round(top_contract.7, 3) AS top_contract_avg_price,
    round(top_contract.2 - spy_regular_close, 2) AS top_strike_minus_spy_close,
    round(spy_regular_close - top_contract.2, 2) AS spy_close_minus_strike
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-03 00:00:00'

選擇權交易量達 80.96 萬口合約，分佈在 13.15 萬筆成交紀錄中，其中 47.4% 的交易量於同一個週四到期。全天沒有任何一筆到期日代碼為 7 月 3 日的合約成交（0 筆成交紀錄），因此週四同時承載了當日到期與本週移位的週到期合約。最活躍的合約是當日到期的 SPY $740 賣權 — 540,403 口合約，平均權利金為 $0.499，SPY 收盤價高出履約價 4.8 美元：處於價外狀態，而且在週二和週三均由買權主導的盤面上，這是一檔賣權。買權仍佔交易量的 58.4%；下一個週到期合約吸引了 9.64 萬口合約，7 月月到期合約則為 8.82 萬口（到期機制）。

報價紀錄：交易的真實成本

價格說明發生什麼事；報價說明你得付出多少成本。買賣價差是每一趟買賣往返的過路費，以中間價的基點來計算（一個基點等於百分之一個百分點）。我們每個交易日都會測量它，無論當天是否特殊——這正是「價差暴增」這種說法可以被驗證的原因。

查詢股票 NBBO 更新次數：7月2日 對比 7月1日，含具名標的更新數（百萬次）
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    round(countIf(toDate(sip_timestamp) = toDate('2026-07-02')) / 1e6, 2) AS jul2_updates_m,
    round(countIf(toDate(sip_timestamp) = toDate('2026-07-01')) / 1e6, 2) AS jul1_updates_m,
    round((countIf(toDate(sip_timestamp) = toDate('2026-07-02')) / countIf(toDate(sip_timestamp) = toDate('2026-07-01')) - 1) * 100, 1) AS day_over_day_pct,
    round(countIf(toDate(sip_timestamp) = toDate('2026-07-02') AND ticker = 'SPY') / 1e6, 2) AS jul2_spy_updates_m,
    round(countIf(toDate(sip_timestamp) = toDate('2026-07-02') AND ticker = 'QQQ') / 1e6, 2) AS jul2_qqq_updates_m,
    round(countIf(toDate(sip_timestamp) = toDate('2026-07-02') AND ticker = 'MU') / 1e6, 2) AS jul2_mu_updates_m
FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
WHERE sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-03 00:00:00'

全國最佳買賣報價——即全市場合併報價簿的最優價格——在7月2日當天被改寫了597.22百萬次，相較於7月1日的449.15百萬次：在收盤前出現33%的跳增。QQQ佔了7.56百萬次，高於SPY的5.42百萬次；MU則為1.01百萬次。

查詢中位數報價價差（基點），一般交易時段 — 指數 ETF、大型股與記憶體類股
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(med_bps, 2) AS median_spread_bps,
    round(med_dollars * 100, 1) AS median_spread_cents,
    round(med_bps / min(med_bps) OVER (), 1) AS times_the_spy_spread,
    round(quote_updates / 1e6, 2) AS rth_updates_m,
    invalid_quotes_dropped
FROM (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        quantileExactIf(0.5)((toFloat64(ask_price) - toFloat64(bid_price)) / ((toFloat64(ask_price) + toFloat64(bid_price)) / 2) * 10000,
                             toFloat64(bid_price) > 0 AND toFloat64(ask_price) > toFloat64(bid_price)) AS med_bps,
        quantileExactIf(0.5)(toFloat64(ask_price) - toFloat64(bid_price),
                             toFloat64(bid_price) > 0 AND toFloat64(ask_price) > toFloat64(bid_price)) AS med_dollars,
        count() AS quote_updates,
        countIf(NOT (toFloat64(bid_price) > 0 AND toFloat64(ask_price) > toFloat64(bid_price))) AS invalid_quotes_dropped
    FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'QQQ', 'AAPL', 'TSLA', 'NVDA', 'MU', 'SNDK', 'WDC')
      AND sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'
    GROUP BY ticker
)
ORDER BY median_spread_bps ASC

SPY的報價中位數為0.27個基點寬：對一個744.8美元的ETF來說，大約是2美分。QQQ的價差為0.83個基點，NVDA為1.03個基點。正在下跌的個股，交易成本也最為昂貴：MU 5.52個基點，SanDisk 10.4，Western Digital 10.79——是SPY價差的40倍。在計入任何價格衝擊之前，交易一籃子記憶體類股的成本就已經是交易指數的數倍。無效報價（單邊報價、交叉報價）是按個股分別計數，而非隱藏不報。

查詢流動性是否異常？SPY 一般交易時段中位數價差 對比 過去一個月交易日
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
WITH per_day AS (
    SELECT toDate(sip_timestamp) AS d,
           quantileExact(0.5)((toFloat64(ask_price) - toFloat64(bid_price)) / ((toFloat64(ask_price) + toFloat64(bid_price)) / 2) * 10000) AS med_bps
    FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND sip_timestamp >= '2026-06-02 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-03 00:00:00'
      AND (toHour(sip_timestamp) * 60 + toMinute(sip_timestamp)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
      AND toFloat64(bid_price) > 0 AND toFloat64(ask_price) > toFloat64(bid_price)
    GROUP BY d
)
SELECT
    round(anyIf(med_bps, d = toDate('2026-07-02')), 3) AS jul2_median_spread_bps,
    round(quantileExact(0.5)(med_bps), 3) AS trailing_median_bps,
    round(anyIf(med_bps, d = toDate('2026-07-02')) - quantileExact(0.5)(med_bps), 3) AS jul2_minus_trailing_bps,
    arrayCount(x -> x > anyIf(med_bps, d = toDate('2026-07-02')), groupArrayIf(med_bps, d != toDate('2026-07-02'))) + 1 AS wider_rank,
    count() AS sessions_compared,
    round(max(med_bps), 3) AS widest_session_bps
FROM per_day

對流動性而言，這是個平凡的一天，而這正是我們的發現：SPY的中位數價差為0.27個基點，與過去一個月的中位數（0.27個基點）相差0個基點，在22個交易日中，其價差寬度排名第11——遠不及本月最寬的0.409個基點。一場在指數收漲掩護下的集中性拋售，並未對市場結構造成壓力。

利率：7月2日數據已到位

查詢收據：7月2日公債報價已存檔
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.treasury_yields WHERE date = '2026-07-02') AS jul2_rows,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.treasury_yields WHERE date = '2026-07-01') AS jul1_rows

公債資料更新通常比市場報價晚一兩天：首次發布時，7月2日的收盤數據在檔案中為零筆，本頁面如實說明，不做猜測。現在數據已到位——7月2日有 1 筆，7月1日有 1 筆——因此下方面板呈現的是該交易日的殖利率曲線。

查詢當日殖利率曲線報價：7月2日 對比 7月1日（僅列有報價之年期）
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    t.1 AS curve_point,
    round(t.2, 2) AS jul2_yield_pct,
    round((t.2 - t.3) * 100) AS one_day_change_bp
FROM (
    SELECT arrayJoin([
        ('1 month',  toFloat64(d.yield_1_month),  toFloat64(p.yield_1_month)),
        ('3 month',  toFloat64(d.yield_3_month),  toFloat64(p.yield_3_month)),
        ('1 year',   toFloat64(d.yield_1_year),   toFloat64(p.yield_1_year)),
        ('2 year',   toFloat64(d.yield_2_year),   toFloat64(p.yield_2_year)),
        ('5 year',   toFloat64(d.yield_5_year),   toFloat64(p.yield_5_year)),
        ('10 year',  toFloat64(d.yield_10_year),  toFloat64(p.yield_10_year)),
        ('30 year',  toFloat64(d.yield_30_year),  toFloat64(p.yield_30_year)),
        ('2s10s spread', toFloat64(d.yield_10_year - d.yield_2_year), toFloat64(p.yield_10_year - p.yield_2_year))
    ]) AS t
    FROM (SELECT * FROM global_markets.treasury_yields WHERE date = '2026-07-02') AS d,
         (SELECT * FROM global_markets.treasury_yields WHERE date = '2026-07-01') AS p
)

收盤時，10年期公債殖利率為 4.49%，2年期與10年期利差為 0.35 個基點。

當日背後的日曆

查詢7月2日公司行事曆與資訊流摘要列（含八檔股票分割，其中一檔造成虛假篩選變動）
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
WITH
    (
        SELECT (count(), uniqExact(publisher))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')) = '2026-07-02'
    ) AS news,
    (
        SELECT (argMax(t, n), max(n))
        FROM (
            SELECT t, count() AS n
            FROM (
                SELECT arrayJoin(tickers) AS t
                FROM global_markets.stocks_news
                WHERE toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')) = '2026-07-02'
            )
            WHERE t != 'SPCX'
            GROUP BY t
        )
    ) AS top_news,
    (
        SELECT (count(), countIf(split_to > split_from), countIf(split_to < split_from),
                arrayStringConcat(groupArray(concat(ticker, ' ', toString(split_to), '-for-', toString(split_from))), '; '))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_splits
        WHERE execution_date = '2026-07-02' AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    ) AS splits
SELECT
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-02') AS ex_dividend_records,
    splits.1 AS splits_executed,
    splits.2 AS forward_splits,
    splits.3 AS reverse_splits,
    splits.4 AS split_records,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos WHERE listing_date = '2026-07-02') AS ipos_listed,
    (SELECT uniqExact(accession_number) FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = '2026-07-02') AS sec_filings,
    (SELECT uniqExactIf(accession_number, form_type = '4') FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = '2026-07-02') AS insider_form4_filings,
    (SELECT uniqExactIf(accession_number, form_type = '8-K') FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = '2026-07-02') AS filings_8k,
    (SELECT arrayStringConcat(groupArray(concat(ticker, ' — ', issuer_name)), '; ') FROM (
        SELECT ticker, issuer_name FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos WHERE listing_date = '2026-07-02' ORDER BY ticker
    )) AS ipo_names,
    news.1 AS news_articles,
    news.2 AS news_publishers,
    top_news.1 AS most_covered_ticker,
    top_news.2 AS most_covered_articles,
    (SELECT any(split_from) FROM global_markets.stocks_splits WHERE ticker = 'CRWD' AND execution_date = '2026-07-02') AS crwd_split_from,
    (SELECT any(split_to) FROM global_markets.stocks_splits WHERE ticker = 'CRWD' AND execution_date = '2026-07-02') AS crwd_split_to,
    (SELECT round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
     WHERE ticker = 'CRWD' AND window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00') AS crwd_prev_close,
    (SELECT round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
     WHERE ticker = 'CRWD' AND window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00') AS crwd_day_close,
    (SELECT round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 2) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
     WHERE ticker = 'CRWD' AND window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00') AS crwd_dollar_m,
    (SELECT count() FROM (
        SELECT ticker FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker IN (SELECT ticker FROM global_markets.stocks_splits WHERE execution_date = '2026-07-02')
          AND window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'
        GROUP BY ticker
    )) AS split_names_with_bars

319 檔股利紀錄進行除息，2 檔新股掛牌（MIACU — Meridian3 Industrials Acquisition Corp.; VIIU — Viking Acquisition Corp. II），SEC 索引在假期前登錄了 5200 筆申報——2109 份Form 4、258 份 8-K。新聞推播共計 201 篇文章，來自 3 家發布機構（NVDA 家報導最密集，其中 18 家）。

股票分割會讓只看原始收盤價的人誤判。CRWD 執行了 4 股換 1 股的 forward split，因此未調整的報價在週三顯示 $772.45、週四顯示 $193.67——這看來像是下跌，實際上只是每一舊股換成四新股。這並非個案：當日共執行 8 筆分割紀錄，5 筆為 forward split，3 筆為 reverse split（split_records 欄位列出明細），而 reverse split 會製造相反的假象——原始價格在一夜之間暴漲。這些標的中僅有 2 檔在我們的報價系統中交易；CRWD 的 $1473.51 百萬成交額是唯一大到足以污染螢幕的標的，而此處所有動能篩選均已將其排除。

近期行事曆

行事曆事實，並非預測——表格中關於接下來幾個交易日的已知資訊。

查詢假期後：下一個交易日、其除息與股票分割、下一個預定休市日，以及融券餘額延遲
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
     WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2026-07-06 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-06 20:00:00') AS jul6_spy_regular_bars,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-06') AS exdiv_records_jul6,
    (SELECT arrayStringConcat(groupArray(ticker), ', ') FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
     WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-06'
       AND ticker IN ('AAPL', 'MSFT', 'JPM', 'JNJ', 'XOM', 'KO', 'PG', 'WMT', 'CVX', 'HD')) AS household_exdivs_jul6,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_splits WHERE execution_date = '2026-07-06') AS splits_jul6,
    (SELECT toString(min(date)) FROM global_markets.stocks_market_holidays WHERE date > '2026-07-02') AS next_scheduled_closure,
    (SELECT any(name) FROM global_markets.stocks_market_holidays
     WHERE date = (SELECT min(date) FROM global_markets.stocks_market_holidays WHERE date > '2026-07-02')) AS next_closure_name,
    (SELECT any(status) FROM global_markets.stocks_market_holidays
     WHERE date = (SELECT min(date) FROM global_markets.stocks_market_holidays WHERE date > '2026-07-02')) AS next_closure_status,
    (SELECT toString(max(settlement_date)) FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
     WHERE settlement_date <= '2026-07-02') AS latest_si_settlement,
    (SELECT dateDiff('day', max(settlement_date), toDate('2026-07-02')) FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
     WHERE settlement_date <= '2026-07-02') AS si_settlement_age_days

7月6日星期一以一根完整的390-bar K線重新開盤，此資訊由其自身的K線資料驗證。該日帶有118筆除息紀錄——在我們追蹤的十檔股票中，有一檔是家喻戶曉的名字（JPM）——以及15筆股票分割執行。下一個排定的休市日：Labor Day，2026-09-07（closed）。空頭持倉數據一如既往地是舊聞——最新的結算紀錄日期為2026-06-30，已是2天前，其發布時間落後結算日約兩週（原因在此）。

已驗證的交易時段 — 以及那個不是星期五的日子

查詢交易時段檢視：SPY 觀察到之分鐘K線跨度，以及紀錄上之7月3日休市
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    formatDateTime(min(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), '%H:%i') AS first_spy_bar_et,
    formatDateTime(max(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), '%H:%i') AS last_spy_bar_et,
    count() AS spy_minute_bars,
    countIf(window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00') AS regular_session_bars,
    uniqExactIf(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00') AS day_sessions,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
     WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2026-07-03 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-04 00:00:00') AS jul3_spy_bars
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-03 00:00:00'

7月2日是完整交易時段，並非提早收市：SPY 的 K 棒涵蓋紐約時間 04:00 至 19:59（包含盤前與盤後 K 棒），常規交易時段 K 棒精確為 390 根。7月3日星期五僅印出 0 根 SPY K 棒 — 因7月4日獨立紀念日適逢星期六而全日休市。本週共四個交易日：本週回顧。

常見問題

為什麼道瓊指數在2026年7月2日上漲，而那斯達克指數卻下跌？

兩檔指數持有的公司不同：DIA收盤 1.04%，QQQ收盤 -1.71%。板塊分布也呈現相同分歧——醫療保健、公用事業與必需消費品類股居前，科技類股墊底，報酬率為 -2.71%，最佳與最差板塊差距達 5.34 個百分點。

獨立紀念日當週的星期五，股市有開盤嗎？

沒有。獨立紀念日落在星期六，交易所於本交易日隔天的星期五全天休市以示紀念：我們的資料顯示當天 SPY 僅有 0 根分鐘 K 線。

股票進行遠期分割後，股價會如何變化？

股數會乘以四，股價則除以四；持倉價值維持不變。以 CRWD 在7月2日為例：週三未調整的收盤價為 $772.45，週四為 $193.67——在任何忽略股票分割的篩選器上，這都會顯示為虛假的跌幅。

2026年7月2日的買賣價差有多寬？

SPY 在一般交易時段的中位數報價價差，為中價的 0.27 個基點——在過去 22 個交易日中，價差寬度排名第 11 位，屬於正常交易日。個股價差則較寬：MU 為 5.52 個基點，WDC 為 10.79 個基點。

資料說明

  • 成交金額為每分鐘的替代指標 — 收盤價 × 成交量，逐根K棒加總。
  • 7月2日公債標售結果於首次發布後才出爐 — 原始備註以逐筆紀錄筆數收據揭露其缺漏；本次修訂版已納入該標售結果，並附上收據。
  • CRWD的原始收盤價變動為股票分割所致 — 已從波動篩選名單中排除。
完整資料說明
  • 類股看板為十一檔SPDR精選類股基金（XLB、XLC、XLE、XLF、XLI、XLK、XLP、XLRE、XLU、XLV、XLY）— 此為固定且已揭露的一籃子組合，並非供應商提供的類股欄位。
  • 報價磁帶筆數依據SIP時間戳記的UTC日期分組；一個夏季交易時段完全落在一個UTC日內。
  • 一檔六月掛牌、代號重複使用的標的已從排行榜中排除（收據）；逐筆交易鑑識工作詳見深度分析。

方法說明

  • 期間為一個交易時段（1 時段，已由觀察到的 K 棒驗證）。時間戳記以 UTC 儲存，並在查詢內部轉換為紐約時間；「收盤」意指常規交易時段最後一分鐘的 K 棒，而日別比較是將 7 月 2 日與 7 月 1 日進行對比。7 月 3 日休市一事已由 K 棒驗證，並非預先假設。
  • 價差以買價減去賣價報價，單位為中間價的基點，取常規交易時段 NBBO 更新資料的中位數，採用確定性分位數。進行比率運算前，小數會先轉換為浮點數；選擇權到期日則從 OCC 代碼重新解析。每個面板在撰寫當下，均透過管制唯讀路徑讀取一次。

圖表、表格與 SQL 為同一物件。將任一面板貼入 Strasmore 終端機，即可自行運用。前一交易時段：7 月 1 日。本週：四個交易日的假期週。

#recap#daily#spy#qqq#market structure