Strasmore Research
Muhtasari wa soko Matt ConnorNa Matt Connor · Imeboreshwa 2026-07-25

soko la hisa Julai 2 2026 mzunguko wa sekta

Siku ya mwisho kabla ya Siku ya Uhuru: upana kijani chini ya Nasdaq inayoanguka, teknolojia ya mwisho kati ya sekta kumi na moja, siku ya pili ya kumbukumbu, na mgawanyiko ulioiga

Alhamisi, Julai 2, 2026 — kikao cha mwisho kabla ya kufungwa kwa Siku ya Uhuru — kilikuwa siku ya mzunguko iliyobeba kichwa cha habari cha mauzo. QQQ ilichapisha -1.71% huku DIA ikipanda 1.04%, na upana ulikuwa CHANYA: 3398 majina ya ukwasi yalipanda dhidi ya 2758, 54.6% ya soko likiwa kijani huku fahirisi ya ukuaji ikishuka. Kati ya mashirika kumi na moja ya sekta, nane yalifunga juu; mauzo yalikalia teknolojia na kundi la kumbukumbu lililovunja siku iliyotangulia.

Ubao wa alama

UlizaSPY / QQQ / DIA / IWM — Julai 2 dhidi ya kufunga Julai 1, saa za kawaida
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH prior AS (
    SELECT ticker, argMax(close, window_start) AS prior_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'QQQ', 'DIA', 'IWM')
      AND window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00'
    GROUP BY ticker
),
sess AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           argMin(open, window_start) AS day_open,
           argMax(close, window_start) AS day_close,
           max(high) AS day_high,
           min(low) AS day_low,
           round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_traded_m
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'QQQ', 'DIA', 'IWM')
      AND window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    s.ticker AS ticker,
    round(toFloat64(p.prior_close), 2) AS prior_close,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_open), 2) AS day_open,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_close), 2) AS day_close,
    round((toFloat64(s.day_close) / toFloat64(p.prior_close) - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_change,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_high), 2) AS day_high,
    round(toFloat64(s.day_low), 2) AS day_low,
    s.shares_traded_m AS shares_traded_m
FROM sess s
JOIN prior p ON s.ticker = p.ticker
ORDER BY s.ticker

DIA ikiwa 1.04% dhidi ya QQQ ikiwa -1.71% ndio muhtasari wa siku kwa mstari mmoja — viwanda na ukuaji vimetofautiana kwa karibu pointi tatu za mapato ya siku moja. SPY ilichukua katikati kwa -0.12%; IWM ilifunga -0.59%.

Je siku hiyo ilikuwa ya kawaida?

Lensi mbili katika paneli moja: mwendo wa SPY kutoka ufunguzi hadi kufunga na mwendo wa QQQ kutoka kufunga hadi kufunga, kila moja ikilinganishwa na mwezi uliopita kwa ukubwa kamili (nafasi ya 1 = kubwa zaidi).

UlizaSPY na QQQ zimeorodheshwa dhidi ya mwezi uliopita wa vikao (nafasi 1 = mabadiliko makubwa kabisa)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH per_day AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           (argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) / argMin(toFloat64(open), window_start) - 1) * 100 AS oc_pct,
           argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) AS rth_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'QQQ')
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-02 00:00:00')
      AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
    GROUP BY ticker, d
),
with_prev AS (
    SELECT ticker, d, oc_pct,
           lagInFrame(rth_close) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY d) AS prev_close,
           (rth_close / lagInFrame(rth_close) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY d) - 1) * 100 AS cc_pct
    FROM per_day
)
SELECT
    round(anyIf(oc_pct, ticker = 'SPY' AND d = toDate('2026-07-02')), 2) AS spy_open_to_close_pct,
    arrayCount(x -> x > abs(anyIf(oc_pct, ticker = 'SPY' AND d = toDate('2026-07-02'))),
               groupArrayIf(abs(oc_pct), ticker = 'SPY' AND d != toDate('2026-07-02'))) + 1 AS spy_abs_move_rank,
    countIf(ticker = 'SPY') AS spy_sessions_compared,
    round(anyIf(cc_pct, ticker = 'QQQ' AND d = toDate('2026-07-02')), 2) AS qqq_close_over_close_pct,
    arrayCount(x -> x > abs(anyIf(cc_pct, ticker = 'QQQ' AND d = toDate('2026-07-02'))),
               groupArrayIf(abs(cc_pct), ticker = 'QQQ' AND d != toDate('2026-07-02') AND isFinite(cc_pct) AND prev_close > 0)) + 1 AS qqq_abs_move_rank,
    countIf(ticker = 'QQQ' AND isFinite(cc_pct) AND prev_close > 0) AS qqq_sessions_compared,
    toString(minIf(d, ticker = 'SPY')) AS first_session
FROM with_prev

Katika kiwango cha fahirisi, hapana. Mwendo wa SPY -0.35% kutoka ufunguzi hadi kufunga una nafasi 15 kati ya 22 vikao vilivyotangulia — nusu ya chini. QQQ ilikuwa na sauti kubwa zaidi lakini bado haikuwa kali: mwendo wake -1.71% kutoka kufunga hadi kufunga una nafasi 9 kati ya 21 vikao vilivyo na kufunga uliopita uliofafanuliwa, hadi 2026-06-02 — siku mbaya ya katikati ya kundi kwa fahirisi ya ukuaji. Kanda ya hisa moja ndipo Julai 2 ilipokuwa na sauti kubwa.

Upana: mkanda wa kijani, fahirisi nyekundu ya ukuaji

UlizaWapanda dhidi ya washuka kati ya ticker zenye angalau $1M zilizouzwa Julai 2
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH per_ticker AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS day_dollar_volume
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE (window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00')
       OR (window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00')
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    countIf(day_close > prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS advancers,
    countIf(day_close < prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS decliners,
    countIf(day_close = prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS unchanged,
    countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS liquid_tickers,
    count() AS tickers_traded_both_sessions,
    count() - countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000) AS dropped_by_liquidity_filter,
    round(100.0 * countIf(day_close > prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000)
        / countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000), 1) AS advancer_pct,
    reverse(arrayStringConcat(extractAll(reverse(toString(countIf(day_close > prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000))), '[0-9]{1,3}'), ',')) AS advancers_fmt,
    reverse(arrayStringConcat(extractAll(reverse(toString(countIf(day_close < prior_close AND day_dollar_volume >= 1000000))), '[0-9]{1,3}'), ',')) AS decliners_fmt,
    reverse(arrayStringConcat(extractAll(reverse(toString(count() - countIf(day_dollar_volume >= 1000000))), '[0-9]{1,3}'), ',')) AS dropped_by_liquidity_filter_fmt,
    reverse(arrayStringConcat(extractAll(reverse(toString(count())), '[0-9]{1,3}'), ',')) AS tickers_traded_both_sessions_fmt
FROM per_ticker
WHERE prior_close > 0 AND day_close > 0

3,398 waendelezaji, 2,758 wapunguzaji, 63 wasiobadilika — 54.6% ya mkanda wa kioevu ulipanda huku QQQ ikishuka. Fahirisi zenye uzito wa mtaji na upana wa hesabu sawa zilijibu kwa njia tofauti; siku kama hizi ndio sababu zote mbili zinapata paneli. Kichujio kinaondoa 5,317 kati ya 11,536 ticker za vipindi viwili zilizofanya biashara chini ya dola milioni 1.

Sekta kwa sekta: ambapo mkanda wa kijani ulikalia

Upana wa soko huhesabu majina; hausemi ni aina gani. Fedha kumi na moja za SPDR za sekta ziligawanya kikao kwa tasnia, na pengo kati ya bora na mbaya zaidi ni mtawanyiko wa siku hiyo kwa namba moja.

UlizaETF za sekta kumi na moja za SPDR — kufunga Julai 2 dhidi ya kufunga Julai 1, saa za kawaida
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH per_etf AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') / 1e9, 2) AS day_dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('XLB', 'XLC', 'XLE', 'XLF', 'XLI', 'XLK', 'XLP', 'XLRE', 'XLU', 'XLV', 'XLY')
      AND ((window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'))
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_chg,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100 - min((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100) OVER (), 2) AS pts_above_worst_sector,
    day_dollar_bn
FROM per_etf
ORDER BY ticker

Huduma za afya (XLV) ziliongoza ubao kwa 2.63%, kisha huduma za umma 2.23%, bidhaa za msingi 2%, malighafi 1.94%. Teknolojia (XLK) ilimaliza mwisho kwa -2.71%, sekta pekee iliyoshuka zaidi ya pointi moja; bidhaa za hiari (-0.81%) na huduma za mawasiliano (-0.13%) zilikuwa fedha nyingine nyekundu, nane zilizobaki zikiwa kijani. Mtawanyiko bora hadi mbaya zaidi: 5.34 asilimia pointi. Mgawanyiko wa DIA-up/QQQ-down ulienea katika soko lote, si tu megacaps nne — ndiyo maana mstari wa kijani wa kupanda-kushuka chini ya Nasdaq inayoanguka si utata wowote.

Kichwa cha siku: msururu wa kumbukumbu, siku ya pili

Kundi lililovunjika Jumatano lilianguka zaidi Alhamisi — ukubwa na mwendo wa pamoja, si sababu.

UlizaMajina ya kumbukumbu na uhifadhi: mabadiliko dhidi ya kufunga Jumatano, muda wa anuwai, na kiasi cha dola
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH per_name AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS day_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS day_low,
        argMinIf(window_start, toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS low_bar,
        argMaxIf(window_start, toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS high_bar,
        round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') / 1e9, 2) AS day_dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('MU', 'SNDK', 'STX', 'WDC')
      AND ((window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'))
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_chg,
    round(day_high, 2) AS day_high,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(high_bar, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS day_high_et,
    round(day_low, 2) AS day_low,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(low_bar, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS day_low_et,
    round((day_high / day_low - 1) * 100, 2) AS range_pct,
    day_dollar_bn
FROM per_name
ORDER BY ticker

SanDisk ilichapisha -14.32%, Seagate -10.38%, Western Digital -9.92%, MU -5.57% — kwa $51.4 bilioni ya mauzo ya MU, takriban mara moja na nusu ya SPY. MU na SanDisk zilichapisha viwango vyao vya chini marehemu (15:26, 15:26 ET), Seagate na Western Digital mapema (14:23, 13:59 ET). Muktadha: Jumatano na uchambuzi wa kina wa MU.

Upande mwingine wa mzunguko, katika makampuni makubwa:

UlizaMzunguko wa megacap: mabadiliko dhidi ya kufunga Jumatano, muda wa anuwai, na kiasi cha dola
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH per_name AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start < '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS prior_close,
        toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00')) AS day_close,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS day_high,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS day_low,
        argMinIf(window_start, toFloat64(low), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS low_bar,
        argMaxIf(window_start, toFloat64(high), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') AS high_bar,
        round(sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00') / 1e9, 2) AS day_dollar_bn
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('AAPL', 'MSFT', 'NVDA', 'TSLA')
      AND ((window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00')
        OR (window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'))
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(day_close, 2) AS day_close,
    round((day_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 2) AS pct_chg,
    round(day_high, 2) AS day_high,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(high_bar, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS day_high_et,
    round(day_low, 2) AS day_low,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(low_bar, 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS day_low_et,
    round((day_high / day_low - 1) * 100, 2) AS range_pct,
    day_dollar_bn
FROM per_name
ORDER BY ticker

AAPL ilipanda 4.75% kwa mstari wa mwelekeo mmoja — kiwango cha chini saa 09:30 ET, kiwango cha juu saa 15:57, dakika tatu kabla ya kufunga — huku TSLA ikionyesha picha ya kinyume saa -7.65%. MSFT iliongeza 1.41%; NVDA ilifunga -1.55%. Fahirisi moja, siku tofauti.

Ambapo Biashara Ilifanyika

UlizaViongozi wa kiasi kwa njia mbili: 6 bora kwa dola zilizouzwa, 4 bora kwa hisa zilizouzwa (orodha moja ya alama iliyotumika tena imetengwa kusubiri uthibitishaji wa chombo)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT ticker, leaderboard, dollar_volume_bn, if(dollar_volume_bn < 1, dollar_volume_m, NULL) AS dollar_value_m, shares_m,
    round(100 * if(leaderboard = 'by dollars traded', dollar_volume_bn, shares_m)
        / max(if(leaderboard = 'by dollars traded', dollar_volume_bn, shares_m)) OVER (PARTITION BY leaderboard), 1) AS pct_of_board_leader
FROM (
    SELECT
        'by dollars traded' AS leaderboard,
        ticker,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS dollar_volume_bn,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 0) AS dollar_volume_m,
        round(sum(toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    GROUP BY ticker
    ORDER BY dollar_volume_bn DESC
    LIMIT 6
    UNION ALL
    SELECT
        'by shares traded' AS leaderboard,
        ticker,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS dollar_volume_bn,
        round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 0) AS dollar_volume_m,
        round(sum(toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    GROUP BY ticker
    ORDER BY shares_m DESC
    LIMIT 4
)
ORDER BY leaderboard ASC, if(leaderboard = 'by dollars traded', dollar_volume_bn, shares_m) DESC

MU $51.4 bilioni iliongoza kwenye jedwali kwa kikao cha nne mfululizo (Jumatatu, Jumanne, Jumatano) dhidi ya SPY $32.7 bilioni, na SanDisk $26.57 bilioni iliweka jina la pili la kumbukumbu kwenye nne bora. SOXS — ETF ya semiconductor yenye kinyume cha mara tatu — iliongoza jedwali la hisa kwa 748.2 milioni: hisa za bei nafuu hutawala hesabu ya hisa, zenye bei ghali hutawala hesabu ya dola, na kiasi cha jamaa hulinganisha mojawapo dhidi ya kawaida ya jina lenyewe. Msingi: Saa za kawaida za Julai 2, orodha moja ya ishara iliyotumiwa tena haijajumuishwa (risiti).

UlizaHisa zilizouzwa kwa ndoo ya dakika 30, saa za kawaida (mabilioni)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    formatDateTime(toStartOfInterval(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'), INTERVAL 30 MINUTE), '%H:%i') AS et_time,
    round(sum(toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 2) AS shares_bn,
    round(100 * sum(toFloat64(volume)) / max(sum(toFloat64(volume))) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_biggest_bucket
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'
GROUP BY et_time
ORDER BY et_time

2.13 bilioni hisa katika nusu saa ya kwanza, kiwango cha chini cha 0.81 bilioni saa 14:30, 2.3 bilioni hadi kufungwa kwa usiku wa sikukuu — kikundi cha mwisho kikubwa zaidi siku hiyo, kwani mnada wa kufunga huvuta maagizo yaliyokaa kwenye chapisho moja.

Kanda ya chaguzi: wiki iliyohamishwa inatua

UlizaSafu moja kwa siku nzima ya chaguzi: kiasi, muda wake unaoisha siku hiyo, wiki iliyohamishwa likizo, na mwezi wa Julai
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH
    (
        SELECT (any(underlying_symbol), any(toFloat64(strike_price)), any(option_type),
                any(toDateOrNull(concat('20', substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6)))),
                sum(size), count(), round(avg(toFloat64(price)), 3))
        FROM global_markets.options_trades
        WHERE sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-03 00:00:00'
        GROUP BY ticker
        ORDER BY sum(size) DESC
        LIMIT 1
    ) AS top_contract,
    (
        SELECT round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2)
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'
    ) AS spy_regular_close
SELECT
    round(count() / 1e6, 2) AS option_prints_m,
    round(toFloat64(sum(size)) / 1e6, 2) AS contracts_m,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, option_type = 'C') / sum(size), 1) AS call_pct_of_volume,
    round(100.0 * sumIf(size, substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260702') / sum(size), 1) AS same_day_expiry_pct,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260702')) / 1e6, 2) AS thu_jul2_expiry_contracts_m,
    countIf(substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260703') AS fri_jul3_expiry_prints,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260710')) / 1e6, 2) AS jul10_weekly_contracts_m,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) = '260717')) / 1e6, 2) AS jul17_monthly_contracts_m,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'SPY')) / 1e6, 2) AS spy_contracts_m,
    round(toFloat64(sumIf(size, underlying_symbol = 'QQQ')) / 1e6, 2) AS qqq_contracts_m,
    top_contract.1 AS top_contract_underlying,
    top_contract.2 AS top_contract_strike,
    top_contract.3 AS top_contract_type,
    top_contract.4 AS top_contract_expiry,
    top_contract.5 AS top_contract_volume,
    reverse(arrayStringConcat(extractAll(reverse(toString(assumeNotNull(top_contract.5))), '[0-9]{1,3}'), ',')) AS top_contract_volume_fmt,
    round(top_contract.7, 3) AS top_contract_avg_price,
    round(top_contract.2 - spy_regular_close, 2) AS top_strike_minus_spy_close,
    round(spy_regular_close - top_contract.2, 2) AS spy_close_minus_strike
FROM global_markets.options_trades
WHERE sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-03 00:00:00'

Chaguzi zilizouzwa 80.96 mikataba milioni katika 13.15 milioni ya machapisho, na 47.4% ya kiasi hicho kiliisha Alhamisi hiyo hiyo. Hakuna mkataba wenye msimbo wa kumalizika tarehe 3 Julai uliochapishwa siku nzima (0 machapisho), kwa hivyo Alhamisi ilibeba mwisho wa siku na wiki iliyohamishwa ya wiki hiyo kwa wakati mmoja. Mkataba ulio na shughuli nyingi zaidi ulikuwa wa siku hiyo hiyo SPY $740 put — 540,403 mikataba kwa wastani wa 0.499 dola za malipo, SPY ikifunga 4.8 dola juu ya kiwango cha mgomo: nje ya pesa, na put juu ya ubao ambapo Jumanne na Jumatano zilikuwa na calls. Bado calls zilichukua 58.4% ya kiasi; wiki iliyofuata ilivuta 9.64 mikataba milioni, mwezi wa Julai 8.82 milioni (mbinu za kumalizika).

Mkanda wa nukuu: gharama ya kufanya biashara

Bei zinaeleza kilichotokea; nukuu zinaeleza gharama yake. mgao wa bei ya kununua na kuuza ni ushuru kwa kila safari ya kwenda na kurudi, katika pointi za msingi za bei ya katikati (pointi ya msingi ni asilimia mia moja ya asilimia). Tunaipima kila kikao, cha kawaida au la — ndiyo maana "mgao ulipanda sana" ni dai linaloweza kuthibitishwa.

UlizaHesabu ya sasisho la NBBO la hisa: Julai 2 dhidi ya Julai 1, pamoja na sasisho za ticker zilizotajwa (mamilioni)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    round(countIf(toDate(sip_timestamp) = toDate('2026-07-02')) / 1e6, 2) AS jul2_updates_m,
    round(countIf(toDate(sip_timestamp) = toDate('2026-07-01')) / 1e6, 2) AS jul1_updates_m,
    round((countIf(toDate(sip_timestamp) = toDate('2026-07-02')) / countIf(toDate(sip_timestamp) = toDate('2026-07-01')) - 1) * 100, 1) AS day_over_day_pct,
    round(countIf(toDate(sip_timestamp) = toDate('2026-07-02') AND ticker = 'SPY') / 1e6, 2) AS jul2_spy_updates_m,
    round(countIf(toDate(sip_timestamp) = toDate('2026-07-02') AND ticker = 'QQQ') / 1e6, 2) AS jul2_qqq_updates_m,
    round(countIf(toDate(sip_timestamp) = toDate('2026-07-02') AND ticker = 'MU') / 1e6, 2) AS jul2_mu_updates_m
FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
WHERE sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-01 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-03 00:00:00'

Ofa bora ya kitaifa na zabuni bora ya kitaifa — sehemu ya juu ya kitabu cha pamoja — iliandikwa upya 597.22 mara milioni mnamo Julai 2 dhidi ya 449.15 milioni mnamo Julai 1: kuruka kwa 33% kuelekea kufunga. QQQ ilichukua 7.56 milioni, juu ya 5.42 milioni ya SPY; MU 1.01 milioni.

UlizaWastani wa kuenea kwa nukta za msingi, saa za kawaida — ETF za fahirisi, megacap, na majina ya kumbukumbu
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    ticker,
    round(med_bps, 2) AS median_spread_bps,
    round(med_dollars * 100, 1) AS median_spread_cents,
    round(med_bps / min(med_bps) OVER (), 1) AS times_the_spy_spread,
    round(quote_updates / 1e6, 2) AS rth_updates_m,
    invalid_quotes_dropped
FROM (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        quantileExactIf(0.5)((toFloat64(ask_price) - toFloat64(bid_price)) / ((toFloat64(ask_price) + toFloat64(bid_price)) / 2) * 10000,
                             toFloat64(bid_price) > 0 AND toFloat64(ask_price) > toFloat64(bid_price)) AS med_bps,
        quantileExactIf(0.5)(toFloat64(ask_price) - toFloat64(bid_price),
                             toFloat64(bid_price) > 0 AND toFloat64(ask_price) > toFloat64(bid_price)) AS med_dollars,
        count() AS quote_updates,
        countIf(NOT (toFloat64(bid_price) > 0 AND toFloat64(ask_price) > toFloat64(bid_price))) AS invalid_quotes_dropped
    FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'QQQ', 'AAPL', 'TSLA', 'NVDA', 'MU', 'SNDK', 'WDC')
      AND sip_timestamp >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'
    GROUP BY ticker
)
ORDER BY median_spread_bps ASC

SPY ilinukuu upana wa wastani wa 0.27 pointi za msingi: takriban 2 senti kwenye ETF ya $744.8. QQQ ilikuja kwa 0.83 bps, NVDA 1.03. Majina yaliyokuwa yakishuka ndiyo yalikuwa ghali kufanya biashara: MU 5.52 bps, SanDisk 10.4, Western Digital 10.79 — 40x mgao wa SPY. Kuvuka kikapu cha majina ya kumbukumbu kuligharimu mara nyingi zaidi ya kuvuka fahirisi, kabla ya athari yoyote ya bei. Nukuu batili (za upande mmoja, zilizovuka) zinahesabiwa kwa jina, si kufichwa.

UlizaJe, ukwasi ulikuwa wa kawaida? Wastani wa kuenea kwa SPY kwa saa za kawaida dhidi ya mwezi uliopita wa vikao
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH per_day AS (
    SELECT toDate(sip_timestamp) AS d,
           quantileExact(0.5)((toFloat64(ask_price) - toFloat64(bid_price)) / ((toFloat64(ask_price) + toFloat64(bid_price)) / 2) * 10000) AS med_bps
    FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND sip_timestamp >= '2026-06-02 00:00:00' AND sip_timestamp < '2026-07-03 00:00:00'
      AND (toHour(sip_timestamp) * 60 + toMinute(sip_timestamp)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
      AND toFloat64(bid_price) > 0 AND toFloat64(ask_price) > toFloat64(bid_price)
    GROUP BY d
)
SELECT
    round(anyIf(med_bps, d = toDate('2026-07-02')), 3) AS jul2_median_spread_bps,
    round(quantileExact(0.5)(med_bps), 3) AS trailing_median_bps,
    round(anyIf(med_bps, d = toDate('2026-07-02')) - quantileExact(0.5)(med_bps), 3) AS jul2_minus_trailing_bps,
    arrayCount(x -> x > anyIf(med_bps, d = toDate('2026-07-02')), groupArrayIf(med_bps, d != toDate('2026-07-02'))) + 1 AS wider_rank,
    count() AS sessions_compared,
    round(max(med_bps), 3) AS widest_session_bps
FROM per_day

Siku ya kawaida kwa ukwasi, na hilo ndilo jambo lililopatikana: mgao wa wastani wa SPY wa 0.27 bps uko 0 bps kutoka wastani wa mwezi uliopita (0.27 bps), ukishika nafasi 11 kati ya vikao 22 kwa upana — si karibu hata na kipindi kipana zaidi cha mwezi cha 0.409 bps. Kushuka kwa bei kwa kiasi kikubwa chini ya mkanda wa kijani hakukusumbua mfumo wa mifereji.

Viwango: chapisho la Julai 2, limewasili

UlizaStakabadhi: chapisho la hazina la Julai 2 liko kwenye faili
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.treasury_yields WHERE date = '2026-07-02') AS jul2_rows,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.treasury_yields WHERE date = '2026-07-01') AS jul1_rows

Mfumo wa hazina huchelewa siku moja au mbili nyuma ya mkondo: wakati wa uchapishaji wa kwanza, Julai 2 haukuwa na safu yoyote kwenye faili, na ukurasa huu ulisema hivyo badala ya kukisia. Chapisho limewasili sasa — 1 safu kwa Julai 2, 1 kwa Julai 1 — hivyo paneli iliyo chini inabeba mkondo wa kikao chenyewe.

UlizaChapisho la mkunjo wa kikao: Julai 2 dhidi ya Julai 1 (muda uliojazwa tu)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    t.1 AS curve_point,
    round(t.2, 2) AS jul2_yield_pct,
    round((t.2 - t.3) * 100) AS one_day_change_bp
FROM (
    SELECT arrayJoin([
        ('1 month',  toFloat64(d.yield_1_month),  toFloat64(p.yield_1_month)),
        ('3 month',  toFloat64(d.yield_3_month),  toFloat64(p.yield_3_month)),
        ('1 year',   toFloat64(d.yield_1_year),   toFloat64(p.yield_1_year)),
        ('2 year',   toFloat64(d.yield_2_year),   toFloat64(p.yield_2_year)),
        ('5 year',   toFloat64(d.yield_5_year),   toFloat64(p.yield_5_year)),
        ('10 year',  toFloat64(d.yield_10_year),  toFloat64(p.yield_10_year)),
        ('30 year',  toFloat64(d.yield_30_year),  toFloat64(p.yield_30_year)),
        ('2s10s spread', toFloat64(d.yield_10_year - d.yield_2_year), toFloat64(p.yield_10_year - p.yield_2_year))
    ]) AS t
    FROM (SELECT * FROM global_markets.treasury_yields WHERE date = '2026-07-02') AS d,
         (SELECT * FROM global_markets.treasury_yields WHERE date = '2026-07-01') AS p
)

Mwishoni mwa kikao, dhamana ya miaka 10 ilikuwa 4.49%, na kiasi cha 2s10s kikiwa 0.35 pointi.

Kalenda nyuma ya siku hii

UlizaKalenda ya kampuni na mtiririko wa habari wa Julai 2, katika safu moja (ikijumuisha migawanyiko minane nyuma ya hatua moja ya skrini bandia)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH
    (
        SELECT (count(), uniqExact(publisher))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_news
        WHERE toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')) = '2026-07-02'
    ) AS news,
    (
        SELECT (argMax(t, n), max(n))
        FROM (
            SELECT t, count() AS n
            FROM (
                SELECT arrayJoin(tickers) AS t
                FROM global_markets.stocks_news
                WHERE toDate(toTimeZone(published_utc, 'America/New_York')) = '2026-07-02'
            )
            WHERE t != 'SPCX'
            GROUP BY t
        )
    ) AS top_news,
    (
        SELECT (count(), countIf(split_to > split_from), countIf(split_to < split_from),
                arrayStringConcat(groupArray(concat(ticker, ' ', toString(split_to), '-for-', toString(split_from))), '; '))
        FROM global_markets.stocks_splits
        WHERE execution_date = '2026-07-02' AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    ) AS splits
SELECT
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-02') AS ex_dividend_records,
    splits.1 AS splits_executed,
    splits.2 AS forward_splits,
    splits.3 AS reverse_splits,
    splits.4 AS split_records,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos WHERE listing_date = '2026-07-02') AS ipos_listed,
    (SELECT uniqExact(accession_number) FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = '2026-07-02') AS sec_filings,
    (SELECT uniqExactIf(accession_number, form_type = '4') FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = '2026-07-02') AS insider_form4_filings,
    (SELECT uniqExactIf(accession_number, form_type = '8-K') FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = '2026-07-02') AS filings_8k,
    (SELECT arrayStringConcat(groupArray(concat(ticker, ' — ', issuer_name)), '; ') FROM (
        SELECT ticker, issuer_name FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos WHERE listing_date = '2026-07-02' ORDER BY ticker
    )) AS ipo_names,
    news.1 AS news_articles,
    news.2 AS news_publishers,
    top_news.1 AS most_covered_ticker,
    top_news.2 AS most_covered_articles,
    (SELECT any(split_from) FROM global_markets.stocks_splits WHERE ticker = 'CRWD' AND execution_date = '2026-07-02') AS crwd_split_from,
    (SELECT any(split_to) FROM global_markets.stocks_splits WHERE ticker = 'CRWD' AND execution_date = '2026-07-02') AS crwd_split_to,
    (SELECT round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
     WHERE ticker = 'CRWD' AND window_start >= '2026-07-01 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-01 20:00:00') AS crwd_prev_close,
    (SELECT round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
     WHERE ticker = 'CRWD' AND window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00') AS crwd_day_close,
    (SELECT round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e6, 2) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
     WHERE ticker = 'CRWD' AND window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00') AS crwd_dollar_m,
    (SELECT count() FROM (
        SELECT ticker FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker IN (SELECT ticker FROM global_markets.stocks_splits WHERE execution_date = '2026-07-02')
          AND window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00'
        GROUP BY ticker
    )) AS split_names_with_bars

319 rekodi za gawio zilienda bila gawio, 2 orodha mpya ziliwasili (MIACU — Meridian3 Industrials Acquisition Corp.; VIIU — Viking Acquisition Corp. II), na fahirisi ya SEC ilirekodi 5200 uwasilishaji katika kipindi cha sikukuu — 2109 Fomu 4, 258 8-K. Mkururo wa habari ulibeba makala 201 kutoka kwa wachapishaji 3 (NVDA yaliyofunikwa zaidi, 18 kati yao).

Mgawanyiko wa hisa hunasa mtu yeyote anayesoma bei za kufunga ghafi. CRWD ilifanya mgawanyiko wa mbele wa 4-kwa-1, kwa hivyo ukanda usiorekebishwa unaonyesha $772.45 Jumatano na $193.67 Alhamisi — kushuka kwa bandia ambacho kwa kweli ni hisa nne mpya kwa kila moja ya zamani. Haikuwa peke yake: 8 rekodi za mgawanyiko zilitekelezwa, 5 za mbele na 3 za nyuma (safu ya split_records inaziorodhesha), na mgawanyiko wa nyuma unafanya bandia ya kinyume — bei ghafi inayoruka mara moja usiku kucha. 2 tu ya majina hayo yalifanya biashara kwenye ukanda wetu; mauzo ya $1473.51 milioni ya CRWD ndiyo makubwa ya kutosha kuchafua skrini, na kila skrini ya wasogezaji hapa inaiondoa.

Kwenye staha

Ukweli wa kalenda, si utabiri — kile ambacho majedwali yalishikilia kuhusu vikao vilivyofuata.

UlizaBaada ya likizo: kikao kijacho, mgao wake wa gawio na migawanyiko, kufunga kulikoratibiwa kijacho, na ucheleweshaji wa riba fupi
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
     WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2026-07-06 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-06 20:00:00') AS jul6_spy_regular_bars,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-06') AS exdiv_records_jul6,
    (SELECT arrayStringConcat(groupArray(ticker), ', ') FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
     WHERE ex_dividend_date = '2026-07-06'
       AND ticker IN ('AAPL', 'MSFT', 'JPM', 'JNJ', 'XOM', 'KO', 'PG', 'WMT', 'CVX', 'HD')) AS household_exdivs_jul6,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_splits WHERE execution_date = '2026-07-06') AS splits_jul6,
    (SELECT toString(min(date)) FROM global_markets.stocks_market_holidays WHERE date > '2026-07-02') AS next_scheduled_closure,
    (SELECT any(name) FROM global_markets.stocks_market_holidays
     WHERE date = (SELECT min(date) FROM global_markets.stocks_market_holidays WHERE date > '2026-07-02')) AS next_closure_name,
    (SELECT any(status) FROM global_markets.stocks_market_holidays
     WHERE date = (SELECT min(date) FROM global_markets.stocks_market_holidays WHERE date > '2026-07-02')) AS next_closure_status,
    (SELECT toString(max(settlement_date)) FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
     WHERE settlement_date <= '2026-07-02') AS latest_si_settlement,
    (SELECT dateDiff('day', max(settlement_date), toDate('2026-07-02')) FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
     WHERE settlement_date <= '2026-07-02') AS si_settlement_age_days

Jumatatu Julai 6 ilifunguliwa tena kwa kikao kamili cha 390-bar, kilichothibitishwa kutoka kwa baa zake wenyewe. Kilibeba rekodi za 118 za gawio la ex-dividend — jina moja maarufu kati ya kumi tunazochunguza (JPM) — na utekelezaji wa 15 wa mgawanyiko. Kufungwa kwa pili kwa ratiba: Labor Day, 2026-09-07 (closed). Maslahi mafupi yalikuwa habari za zamani, kama kawaida — suluhu mpya zaidi kwenye faili 2026-06-30, 2 siku nyuma, uchapishaji ukifuata suluhu kwa takriban wiki mbili (kwa nini).

Kikao, kimehakikiwa — na Ijumaa ambayo haikuwa

UlizaUkaguzi wa kikao: muda wa baa ya dakika ya SPY uliozingatiwa, na kufunga Julai 3 kwenye tepu
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
    formatDateTime(min(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), '%H:%i') AS first_spy_bar_et,
    formatDateTime(max(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), '%H:%i') AS last_spy_bar_et,
    count() AS spy_minute_bars,
    countIf(window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00') AS regular_session_bars,
    uniqExactIf(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), window_start >= '2026-07-02 13:30:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-02 20:00:00') AS day_sessions,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
     WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2026-07-03 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-04 00:00:00') AS jul3_spy_bars
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= '2026-07-02 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-03 00:00:00'

Julai 2 kilikuwa kikao kamili, si kufunga mapema: baa za SPY zinaanza 04:00 hadi 19:59 kwa saa za New York (ikiwemo baa za kabla ya soko na baada ya saa za kazi), na idadi kamili ya baa za dirisha la kawaida 390. Ijumaa Julai 3 ilichapisha 0 baa za SPY — kufunga kamili kwa Siku ya Uhuru, Julai 4 ikiwa Jumamosi. Wiki ya vikao vinne: muhtasari wa wiki.

Maswali Yanayoulizwa Mara kwa Mara

Kwa nini Dow ilipanda huku Nasdaq ikishuka mnamo Julai 2, 2026?

Fahirisi hizo mbili zinashikilia kampuni tofauti: DIA ilifunga 1.04%, QQQ -1.71%. Bodi ya sekta ina mgawanyiko ule ule — huduma za afya, huduma muhimu na bidhaa za msingi ziko juu, teknolojia ikiwa ya mwisho kwa -2.71%, tofauti ya pointi 5.34 kati ya bora na mbaya zaidi.

Soko la hisa lilikuwa wazi Ijumaa ya wiki ya Siku ya Uhuru?

Hapana. Siku ya Uhuru ilianguka Jumamosi, na soko lilifunga Ijumaa kamili siku moja baada ya kikao hiki: rekodi yetu inaonyesha baa za dakika 0 za SPY kwa siku hiyo.

Mgawanyiko wa hisa wa mbele hufanya nini kwa bei ya hisa?

Unazidisha idadi ya hisa kwa nne na kugawanya bei kwa nne; thamani ya nafasi haibadilika. CRWD, Julai 2: bei ya kufunga isiyorekebishwa ya $772.45 Jumatano, $193.67 Alhamisi — kushuka kwa bandia kwenye kichujio chochote kinachoruka mgawanyiko.

Mwanya wa bei ya kununua na kuuza ulikuwa mpana kiasi gani mnamo Julai 2, 2026?

Mwanya wa wastani ulionukuliwa wa SPY ulikuwa 0.27 basis points ya bei ya katikati katika saa za kawaida — 11 kati ya vikao 22 vilivyopita kwa upana, siku ya kawaida. Majina moja yalikuwa mapana zaidi: MU 5.52 bps, WDC 10.79.

Vidokezo vya data

  • Kiasi cha dola ni kiwakilishi cha kila dakika — bei ya kufunga × kiasi, kilichojumlishwa kwa kila baa.
  • Chapisho la hazina la Julai 2 lilitolewa baada ya uchapishaji wa kwanza — dokezo la awali lilifichua kutokuwepo kwake kwa risiti ya hesabu ya safu; marekebisho haya yana chapisho hilo, risiti imeonyeshwa.
  • Mabadiliko ghafi ya kufunga ya CRWD ni athari ya mgawanyiko — hayajajumuishwa kwenye skrini za mabadiliko.
Vidokezo kamili vya data
  • Bodi ya sekta ni fedha kumi na moja za SPDR Select Sector (XLB, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV, XLY) — kikapu kisichobadilika, kilichofichuliwa, si uga wa sekta wa mtoa huduma.
  • Hesabu za mkanda wa nukuu hupangwa kwa tarehe ya UTC ya muhuri wa SIP; kipindi cha majira ya kiangazi huanguka ndani ya siku moja ya UTC.
  • Orodha moja ya Juni ya ishara iliyotumiwa tena haijajumuishwa kwenye mbao za viongozi (risiti); kazi ya kina ya tick inapatikana kwenye uchunguzi wa kina.

Mbinu

  • Kipindi ni kikao kimoja cha biashara (1 kikao, kilichothibitishwa kutoka kwa pau zilizozingatiwa). Nyakati huhifadhiwa kwa UTC na kubadilishwa hadi saa za New York ndani ya maswali; "kufunga" kunamaanisha pau ya dakika ya mwisho ya kikao cha kawaida, na mabadiliko ya siku yanalinganisha Julai 2 na Julai 1. Kufungwa kwa Julai 3 kulithibitishwa kutoka kwa pau, kamwe hakukukisiwa.
  • Mwanya (spread) unatajwa (ombi ukiondoa zabuni) kwa pointi za msingi za bei ya kati, wastani wa kati kwa sasisho za NBBO za saa za kawaida, kwenye kiasi cha uhakika. Desimali hubadilishwa kuwa namba za sehemu kabla ya hesabu za uwiano; tarehe za kumalizika kwa chaguo huchambuliwa upya kutoka kwa ticker ya OCC. Kila paneli inasomwa mara moja, wakati wa uandishi, kupitia njia ya kusoma iliyozuiliwa.

Chati, jedwali, na SQL ni kitu kimoja. Bandika paneli yoyote kwenye terminal ya Strasmore na uifanye yako mwenyewe. Kikao kilichopita: Julai 1. Wiki: wiki ya likizo ya vikao vinne.

#recap#daily#spy#qqq#market structure