Na Machi 9 2009 chini ya soko la hisa S&P 500
Machi 9, 2009 ilikuwa kiwango cha chini kabisa cha mgogoro wa kifedha, siku ya Jumatatu tulivu isiyo na mwanga wa mabadiliko. Hivi ndivyo viwango vya kizazi vinavyoonekana kwa karibu.
Machi 9, 2009 ni mojawapo ya tarehe muhimu zaidi katika historia ya soko la kisasa: kiwango cha chini cha kufunga cha mgogoro wa kifedha — -56.5% chini ya kilele cha Oktoba 2007 — na siku ya kwanza ya soko la fahamu lililodumu kwa zaidi ya muongo mmoja. Vitabu vya historia vinataja viwango vya fahirisi kutoka Jumatatu hiyo: 676.53 kwenye S&P 500, 6,547 kwenye Dow. Rekodi zilizo hapa chini zinatumia SPY, ETF ya S&P 500, ambayo rekodi yake ya dakika kwa dakika hifadhi hii inaihifadhi tangu 2003. Na hapa kuna ukweli usio na raha unaohifadhiwa na rekodi hiyo: hakuna kitu kuhusu kikao hicho kilichokitangaza. Hakuna mwisho wa kukata tamaa, hakuna mwanga wa mabadiliko — Jumatatu nyekundu tulivu na yenye kusaga iliyokuwa ya mwisho. Kila nambari ni swala lililohifadhiwa; panua paneli yoyote kwa SQL.
Njia ya kushuka chini
Mgogoro ulifika kwa hatua, na tarehe hizo ni muhimu kwa kusoma kila kitu hapa chini. Bear Stearns iliuzwa kwa JPMorgan mnamo Machi 2008. Lehman Brothers iliwasilisha kesi ya kufilisika Jumatatu, Septemba 15, 2008 — kikao chenye ukurasa wake hapa. Congress ilipitisha TARP, mfuko wa uokoaji wa benki wa dola bilioni 700, mnamo Oktoba 3. Uokoaji wa serikali wa AIG uliongezwa mara mbili. Citigroup ilichukua dhamana yake ya pili ya shirikisho mnamo Novemba. Msimu wa baridi ulipungua, na kufikia mwishoni mwa Februari 2009, wastani ulikuwa umevunja viwango vyao vya chini vya Novemba na kuendelea kushuka. Safu moja inafupisha kipindi hicho cha miezi kumi na saba:
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH daily AS (
SELECT
toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS close_usd
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND window_start >= toDateTime('2007-01-02 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2013-07-01 00:00:00')
GROUP BY et_date
),
(SELECT max(close_usd) FROM daily WHERE et_date < toDate('2008-01-01')) AS peak_close_usd
SELECT
round(peak_close_usd, 2) AS peak_close,
toString(argMaxIf(et_date, (close_usd, et_date), et_date < toDate('2008-01-01'))) AS peak_date,
round(minIf(close_usd, et_date BETWEEN toDate('2008-07-01') AND toDate('2009-06-30')), 2) AS trough_close,
toString(argMinIf(et_date, (close_usd, et_date), et_date BETWEEN toDate('2008-07-01') AND toDate('2009-06-30'))) AS trough_date,
round((minIf(close_usd, et_date BETWEEN toDate('2008-07-01') AND toDate('2009-06-30')) / peak_close_usd - 1) * 100, 1) AS decline_pct,
toString(minIf(et_date, et_date > toDate('2009-03-09') AND close_usd >= peak_close_usd)) AS recovered_date
FROM dailyKutoka kilele cha kufunga cha $156.41 mnamo 2007-10-09, SPY ilishuka hadi $68.07 mnamo 2009-03-09 — kushuka kwa -56.5%, kirefu zaidi tangu miaka ya 1930. Safu hiyo hiyo ina nambari ambayo wawekezaji wa muda mrefu huuliza baadaye: safari ya kurudi. SPY haikufunga juu ya kilele chake cha 2007 tena hadi 2013-03-14 — miaka minne baada ya kiwango cha chini, miaka mitano na nusu baada ya kilele. Nusu zote mbili za hesabu hiyo zinapata risiti zao hapa chini.
Siku, kwa mstari mmoja
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH
(
SELECT argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND window_start >= toDateTime('2009-03-06 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2009-03-09 04:00:00')
) AS prior_rth_close,
(
SELECT round(avg(day_shares) / 1e6, 1)
FROM (
SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d, toFloat64(sum(volume)) AS day_shares
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND window_start >= toDateTime('2008-12-01 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2009-03-09 04:00:00')
GROUP BY d
ORDER BY d DESC
LIMIT 20
)
) AS avg20_shares,
(
SELECT round(avg(day_shares) / 1e6, 1)
FROM (
SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d, toFloat64(sum(volume)) AS day_shares
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND window_start >= toDateTime('2008-12-01 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2009-03-09 04:00:00')
GROUP BY d
ORDER BY d DESC
LIMIT 60
)
) AS avg60_shares
SELECT
round(prior_rth_close, 2) AS prior_close,
round(toFloat64(argMinIf(open, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)), 2) AS rth_open,
round((toFloat64(argMinIf(open, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)) / prior_rth_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS gap_pct,
round(maxIf(toFloat64(high), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 2) AS rth_high,
formatDateTime(toTimeZone(argMaxIf(window_start, (toFloat64(high), -toInt64(toUnixTimestamp(window_start))), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS high_et,
round(minIf(toFloat64(low), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 2) AS rth_low,
formatDateTime(toTimeZone(argMinIf(window_start, (toFloat64(low), toInt64(toUnixTimestamp(window_start))), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS low_et,
round(toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)), 2) AS rth_close,
round((toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)) / prior_rth_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS day_change_pct,
round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS day_shares_m,
avg20_shares AS avg20_shares_m,
avg60_shares AS avg60_shares_m,
round((toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6 / avg20_shares - 1) * 100, 0) AS vol_vs_20d_pct,
countIf((toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS rth_minute_bars
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND window_start >= toDateTime('2009-03-09 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2009-03-09 23:59:00')SPY ilifungua kwa $67.95 — punguzo la -1.3% kutoka kwa kufunga kwa Ijumaa ya $68.84 — iligusa $70 saa 10:13 ET, ikashuka hadi kiwango cha chini cha $67.73 mwishoni mwa siku (saa 15:17 ET), na kufunga kwa $68.07 — -1.1% siku hiyo. Mwendo mzima wa siku ulikuwa takriban dola mbili. Kufunga muhimu zaidi kwa kizazi kulifika bila dakika yoyote ya msukosuko.
Kiasi kinajibu swali ambalo namba pekee haiwezi: je, hisa milioni 357.4 zilikuwa kubwa au tulivu? Kwa Machi 2009, tulivu. Vikao ishirini vilivyotangulia vilikuwa na wastani wa hisa milioni 406.3 za SPY kwa siku — kiwango cha chini kilichapishwa -12% ikilinganishwa na wastani huo — na vikao sitini vilivyotangulia vilikuwa na wastani wa milioni 337.9. Hadithi za kujisalimisha zinasema kwamba viwango vya chini vya kizazi hufika kwenye mauzo ya kilele na rekodi. Kiwango cha chini maarufu zaidi cha enzi ya kisasa kiliuzwa chini ya siku ya kawaida ya mwezi wake.
Sura ya kikao
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
formatDateTime(toStartOfInterval(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'), INTERVAL 30 MINUTE), '%H:%i') AS et_time,
round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2) AS bucket_close,
round(min(toFloat64(low)), 2) AS bucket_low,
round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND window_start >= toDateTime('2009-03-09 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2009-03-09 23:59:00')
AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
GROUP BY et_time
ORDER BY et_timeNjia ya nusu saa inarekebisha undani ambao simulizi nyingi hulainisha: Machi 9 haikuwa mteremko wa mwelekeo mmoja. Baada ya kushuka kwa pengo, SPY ilipanda hadi katikati ya asubuhi — kikundi cha 10:00 ET kilifungwa kwa 69.49, chini kidogo ya kiwango cha juu cha siku cha $70 kilichochapishwa saa 10:13 — kisha ikatumia alasiri kurudisha nyuma, ikielekea chini hadi kiwango cha chini cha $67.73 saa 15:17 na kuruka kwa wastani hadi kufunga. Kupanda, kufifia, kuruka kidogo: sura ya kawaida kabisa. Hakuna maporomoko ya maji, hakuna saini ya hofu ya kiasi, hakuna chini-ya-V. Linganisha na uharaka wa Jumatatu ya Lehman wa kufunga kwenye kiwango cha chini au ajali ya haraka ya mfuko wa hewa: hii ni aina ya tatu kabisa, mkanda uliochoka. Anguko la asilimia nyingi za msimu huo wa baridi lilikuwa limetokea katika wiki zilizotangulia. Chini yenyewe ilikuwa siku ambayo wauzaji walikwisha.
Kile kilichogeuza mkondo
Hakuna chochote katika data ya Jumatatu kinachoelezea Jumanne — mabadiliko yalikuja pamoja na mzunguko wa habari, siyo mkondo wa soko. Kabla ya kufunguliwa kwa soko Jumanne, barua pepe ya ndani kutoka kwa mtendaji mkuu wa Citigroup, Vikram Pandit, ilivuja kwa vyombo vya habari: ilisema benki hiyo ilikuwa na faida mwezi Januari na Februari 2009, kipindi chake bora cha miezi miwili tangu 2007. Citigroup — kitovu cha mzozo, iliyokuwa ikifanya biashara kwa $1.05 wakati wa kufunga kwa Jumatatu — haikuwa imetoa habari njema ya chanzo cha msingi kwa miezi kadhaa. Hiki ndicho mkondo wa soko unachorekodi kwa vipindi vitano vilivyofuata kiwango cha chini:
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH daily AS (
SELECT
toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, ticker = 'SPY' AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS spy_close_raw,
round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, ticker = 'C' AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 2) AS citi_close,
round(toFloat64(sumIf(volume, ticker = 'SPY')) / 1e6, 1) AS spy_shares_m
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'C')
AND window_start >= toDateTime('2009-03-06 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2009-03-14 00:00:00')
GROUP BY et_date
)
SELECT
toString(d.et_date) AS session,
round(d.spy_close_raw, 2) AS spy_close,
round((d.spy_close_raw / d.prev_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS spy_change_pct,
d.spy_shares_m,
d.citi_close,
t.ten_year_pct
FROM (
SELECT *, lagInFrame(spy_close_raw) OVER (ORDER BY et_date ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_close
FROM daily
) AS d
LEFT JOIN (
SELECT date, round(toFloat64(yield_10_year), 2) AS ten_year_pct
FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
WHERE date BETWEEN '2009-03-09' AND '2009-03-13'
) AS t ON d.et_date = t.date
WHERE d.et_date >= toDate('2009-03-09')
ORDER BY d.et_dateMach 10 ilifunguka juu zaidi na haikurudi nyuma: SPY ilifunga kwa $72.21, ikiwa juu kwa 6.1%, kwa hisa milioni 401.3 — kiasi kikubwa zaidi kuliko siku yenyewe ya kiwango cha chini. Citigroup ilifunga kwa $1.44. Kufikia Ijumaa, SPY ilikuwa $76.09 na Citigroup $1.78. Mavuno ya dhamana ya miaka 10 ya Treasury yaliongezeka kutoka 2.89% hadi 2.99% katika Jumanne hiyo hiyo — fedha zikihama kutoka kwa kipengee salama zaidi sambamba na kuongezeka kwa hisa, biashara ya kukimbilia ubora ikiwa inarudi nyuma.
Onyo la uaminifu: nyongeza kadhaa za asilimia nyingi zilikuwa tayari zimetokea na kushindwa wakati huo wa baridi, na hakuna chochote Mach 10 kilichothibitisha hii kuwa tofauti. Barua pepe ya Pandit ndiyo alama ambayo wanahistoria huambatanisha na mabadiliko; kile ambacho mkondo wa soko unaweza kuonyesha — na unaonyesha, hapo juu — ni upatanisho wa wakati.
Je, kiwango cha chini kilishikilia?
Kiwango cha chini ni kiwango cha chini tu ikiwa soko halirudi tena. Jedwali hili linafuatilia SPY wiki kwa wiki hadi mwisho wa Juni 2009 — kila wiki biashara ya chini kabisa na kufunga kwa mwisho, pamoja na kiwango cha chini kinachoendelea katika safu ya mwisho:
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH daily AS (
SELECT
toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
minIf(toFloat64(low), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS day_low,
argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS day_close
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND window_start >= toDateTime('2009-03-10 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2009-06-27 00:00:00')
GROUP BY et_date
)
SELECT
week_of,
week_low,
week_close,
round(min(week_low) OVER (), 2) AS lowest_low_after_mar9
FROM (
SELECT
toString(toMonday(et_date)) AS week_of,
round(min(day_low), 2) AS week_low,
round(argMax(day_close, et_date), 2) AS week_close
FROM daily
GROUP BY week_of
)
ORDER BY week_ofKiwango cha chini kabisa cha SPY kilichouzwa katika wiki kumi na sita baada ya Machi 9 kilikuwa $69.37 — na bei hiyo ilitokea katika wiki ya kwanza kutoka kwa kiwango cha chini (2009-03-09). SPY haikuwahi kuuzwa chini ya kufunga kwake kwa Machi 9 ya $68.07 tena, achilia mbali kiwango cha chini cha ndani ya siku cha $67.73. Hakukuwa na majaribio ya pili, hakuna nafasi ya pili, hakuna kurudi nyuma kwa kiwango cha zamani: kufikia wiki ya 2009-05-04 SPY ilifunga kwa $93.04, theluthi moja juu ya kiwango cha chini katika wiki tisa. Kusubiri uthibitisho kulikuwa na bei, na jedwali linaeleza hilo kwa usahihi.
Nani aliongoza mwaka kutoka kiwango cha chini
Benki zilizokuwa katikati ya uharibifu ndizo pia zilikuwa katikati ya kurudi nyuma. Mwaka mmoja kutoka kufunga kwa kiwango cha chini hadi Machi 9, 2010:
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
SELECT
ticker,
round(b_close, 2) AS close_mar9_2009,
round(y_close, 2) AS close_mar9_2010,
round((y_close / b_close - 1) * 100, 0) AS pct_1yr,
fin AS financial
FROM (
SELECT
ticker,
argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) = toDate('2009-03-09') AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS b_close,
argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) = toDate('2010-03-09') AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS y_close,
max(ticker IN ('C', 'BAC', 'WFC', 'JPM', 'GS', 'XLF')) AS fin
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker IN ('C', 'BAC', 'WFC', 'JPM', 'GS', 'XLF', 'SPY', 'AAPL', 'XOM')
AND ((window_start >= toDateTime('2009-03-09 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2009-03-10 04:00:00'))
OR (window_start >= toDateTime('2010-03-09 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2010-03-10 04:00:00')))
GROUP BY ticker
)
ORDER BY pct_1yr DESCJuu ya ubao: BAC kwa +349%, C kwa +265% (kutoka $1.05 kwa hisa), WFC kwa +190% — taasisi kubwa za kifedha zilizoharibiwa zaidi, zikiongezeka mara tatu na nne kutoka bei zilizodhania mabaya zaidi. Ubao sio benki zote — AAPL ilirudisha 168% katika mwaka huo huo — lakini madai ya jopo ni kwamba mshindi bora zaidi ni taasisi ya kifedha. Wakati huo huo, soko pana (SPY) lilipata 68%, na XOM, kampuni kubwa ya ulinzi iliyokuwa imeshikilia vizuri zaidi wakati wa kushuka, ilipata 3% tu. Kurudi nyuma kuligeuza ubao wa viongozi wa kushuka karibu kabisa.
Jinsi inavyolinganishwa na misingi mingine
Kanda ya dakika hapa inaanza Septemba 2003, kwa hivyo kiwango cha chini cha dot-com cha Oktoba 2002 kiko nje ya upeo wa upokeaji. Ikilinganishwa na viwango vitatu vya chini kabisa vya kufunga tangu wakati huo, Machi 2009 inaonekana hivi:
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH daily AS (
SELECT
toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS close_usd
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND ((window_start >= toDateTime('2009-03-09 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2010-03-17 00:00:00'))
OR (window_start >= toDateTime('2011-10-03 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2012-10-10 00:00:00'))
OR (window_start >= toDateTime('2018-12-24 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2019-12-31 00:00:00'))
OR (window_start >= toDateTime('2020-03-23 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2021-03-30 00:00:00')))
GROUP BY et_date
)
SELECT
bottom_session,
round(argMin(close_usd, et_date), 2) AS bottom_close,
round((argMinIf(close_usd, et_date, et_date >= toDate(bottom_session) + 91) / argMin(close_usd, et_date) - 1) * 100, 1) AS plus_3mo_pct,
round((argMinIf(close_usd, et_date, et_date >= toDate(bottom_session) + 365) / argMin(close_usd, et_date) - 1) * 100, 1) AS plus_1yr_pct
FROM (
SELECT
multiIf(et_date >= toDate('2020-03-23'), '2020-03-23',
et_date >= toDate('2018-12-24'), '2018-12-24',
et_date >= toDate('2011-10-03'), '2011-10-03',
'2009-03-09') AS bottom_session,
et_date,
close_usd
FROM daily
)
GROUP BY bottom_session
ORDER BY bottom_sessionKutoka kwa kiwango cha chini cha 2009, SPY ilipata 38.5% ndani ya miezi mitatu na 68.1% ndani ya mwaka mmoja — miezi kumi na miwili yenye nguvu zaidi ambayo wawekezaji wengi walio hai walikuwa wamewahi kuona, ikianza siku iliyoonekana ya kawaida zaidi ya shida. Kiwango cha chini cha COVID cha Machi 2020 pekee ndicho katika kundi moja, kwa +75.1% katika mwaka wake wa kwanza — mgeuko ambao msukumo wake wa kichocheo cha 2020 una ukurasa wake. Viwango vya chini vya marekebisho vya 2011 na 2018 — hofu za kweli wakati huo — vilirudisha 31.4% na 37.1% katika miaka yao ya kwanza. Muundo katika zote nne: kadiri shimo linavyozidi kuwa kirefu, ndivyo mguu wa kwanza unavyozidi kuwa mkali, na mguu wa kwanza ulikuwa mkali zaidi katika ufufuaji.
Kwa nini misingi ya chini huonekana tu kwa nyuma
Mbinu halisi: msingi wa chini hufafanuliwa na kile kisichotokea baadaye — hakuna kiwango cha chini zaidi — jambo ambalo haliwezi kujulikana kwa wakati halisi kwa asili yake. Kila "ishara ya msingi wa chini" iliyowahi kupendekezwa ilijitokeza mara kwa mara wakati wa kushuka hadi mwishoni mwa mwaka 2008; kikao cha Machi 9 chenyewe kilikuwa na alama za kawaida kwa zote — umbo la kawaida, kiasi cha chini cha wastani, na kichocheo cha habari kilichofika asubuhi iliyofuata tu. Mtu yeyote anayedai kuwa kiashiria chake kilitabiri siku hii anaelezea uhai wa baada ya tukio, na "misingi ya chini" mingi ya awali iliyoitwa pia ndiyo uthibitisho wa hilo.
Kile siku hii inachofundisha: jiandae kwa matokeo mbalimbali badala ya pointi moja. Wawekezaji waliofaulu vizuri tangu Machi 2009, kwa kiasi kikubwa, walikuwa wale waliokuwa wakinunua katika kipindi chote cha majira ya baridi kali kwa ratiba — mbinu ambayo mikataba ya kupima faida inachukulia kwa utulivu — si wale waliopata kiwango cha chini kabisa. Jukumu la soko katika nidhamu hiyo ni kusawazisha, si kutabiri: kujua jinsi hali ya kawaida inavyoonekana ndiyo inayozuia Jumatatu tulivu isichukuliwe kama siku nyingine ya kushuka kwa bei ambayo, kwa kweli, ilikuwa imekwisha.
Maswali Yanayoulizwa Mara kwa Mara kuhusu Chini ya Machi 2009
Chini kamili ya ajali ya 2008-2009 ilikuwa wapi?
Kufunga kwa chini kulichapishwa Jumatatu, Machi 9, 2009: SPY kwa $68.07, S&P 500 index kwa 676.53 inayotajwa sana. "666" maarufu ya ndani ya siku kwenye index ilichapishwa kikao kimoja mapema, siku ya Ijumaa iliyotangulia, Machi 6.
Je, soko la hisa lilishuka kiasi gani kutoka 2007 hadi 2009?
SPY ilishuka -56.5% kwa msingi wa kufunga — kutoka $156.41 tarehe 2007-10-09 hadi $68.07 tarehe 2009-03-09 — kushuka kwa kina zaidi kwa usawa wa Marekani tangu miaka ya 1930.
Nini kilitokea Machi 10, 2009?
Kikao cha kwanza baada ya chini: SPY ilipanda 6.1% kufuatia kuvuja kwa usiku wa barabara kwa memo ya ndani ya Citigroup ikisema benki ilikuwa na faida Januari na Februari. Citigroup yenyewe ilifunga kwa $1.44, kutoka $1.05 wakati wa chini.
Je, soko lilipona kwa kasi gani kutoka chini ya 2009?
Mwaka wa kwanza ulikuwa wa kihistoria: SPY ilipata 68.1% kutoka kufunga kwa chini. Kupona kushuka kwa kiwango kizima cha mgogoro kulichukua muda mrefu zaidi — kufunga kwa kwanza kurudi juu ya kilele cha Oktoba 2007 kulikuja tarehe 2013-03-14.
Je, kuna kitu chochote kiliashiria chini mapema?
Hakuna chochote kwenye tape kilichotofautisha Machi 9 na wiki zilizozunguka — kikao kilikuwa kimya na kiasi cha biashara kilikuwa chini ya wastani wake wa siku 20. Chini ikawa chini kwa kurudi nyuma, kwa kutokuwahi kuvunjwa: biashara ya chini kabisa ya wiki kumi na sita zilizofuata ilibaki juu hata ya kufunga kwa Machi 9.
Kila paneli hapo juu ni swala lililohifadhiwa na lenye toleo kwenye tape ya kihistoria — panua SQL ili kuona kila kipimo. Unataka kuhisi siku hii badala ya kuisoma? Ni moja ya matukio yanayoweza kuchezwa kwenye simulator ya biashara ya Strasmore Labs.