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What Is the Term Premium in Bond Yields?
Ten year inflation expectations: market implied against model basedseries · 2026-10-05 · 18×5Preview: a 16-point series, ending lower. The 10 year yield split into implied inflation and an implied real yieldseries · 2026-10-05 · 18×5Preview: a 16-point series, ending higher. Month over month change in the 3 month bill and the 10 year, in basis pointsseries · 2026-10-05 · 26×4Preview: a 16-point series, ending higher. The 5 year, the 10 year, and the implied 5y5y forward rateseries · 2026-10-05 · 26×5Preview: a 16-point series, ending higher. The Treasury curve now and a year ago, by maturitytable · 2026-10-05 · 6×3
Ten year inflation expectations: market implied against model based

Ten year inflation expectations: market implied against model based

most recentas of series 18×5read in context →
Ten year inflation expectations: market implied against model based — 18 rows by 5 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
monthmonth_labelmarket_10y_pctmodel_10y_pctmodel_gap_pct
2024-10-01Oct 20242.292.120.17
2024-11-01Nov 20242.322.330.01
2024-12-01Dec 20242.32.320.02
2025-01-01Jan 20252.42.440.04
2025-02-01Feb 20252.422.470.05
2025-03-01Mar 20252.332.30.03
2025-04-01Apr 20252.242.350.11
2025-05-01May 20252.312.310
2025-06-01Jun 20252.32.350.05
2025-07-01Jul 20252.382.340.04
2025-08-01Aug 20252.382.280.1
2025-09-01Sep 20252.372.30.07
2025-10-01Oct 20252.312.30.01
2025-11-01Nov 20252.272.310.04
2025-12-01Dec 20252.242.350.11
2026-01-01Jan 20262.312.330.02
2026-02-01Feb 20262.32.370.07
2026-05-01May 20262.442.480.04
the exact SQL behind every number 
SELECT
    toString(toStartOfMonth(date))                AS month,
    formatDateTime(toStartOfMonth(date), '%b %Y') AS month_label,
    round(avg(toFloat64(market_10_year)), 2)      AS market_10y_pct,
    round(avg(toFloat64(model_10_year)), 2)       AS model_10y_pct,
    round(abs(avg(toFloat64(market_10_year)) - avg(toFloat64(model_10_year))), 2) AS model_gap_pct
FROM global_markets.inflation_expectations
WHERE date >= today() - 760
  AND market_10_year > 0
  AND model_10_year > 0
GROUP BY toStartOfMonth(date)
ORDER BY toStartOfMonth(date)
More from this analysisWhat Is the Term Premium in Bond Yields?
Month over month change in the 3 month bill and the 10 year, in basis points series 26×4 → The 5 year, the 10 year, and the implied 5y5y forward rate series 26×5 → The 10 year yield split into implied inflation and an implied real yield series 18×5 → The Treasury curve now and a year ago, by maturity table 6×3 → See all 3,094 queries →
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