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The 10 year yield split into implied inflation and an implied real yield

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-10-05, from What Is the Term Premium in Bond Yields?.

as of series 18×5read in context →
The 10 year yield split into implied inflation and an implied real yield — 18 rows by 5 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
monthmonth_labelnominal_10y_pctinflation_10y_pctreal_10y_pct
2024-10-01Oct 20244.12.291.81
2024-11-01Nov 20244.362.322.04
2024-12-01Dec 20244.392.32.09
2025-01-01Jan 20254.632.42.23
2025-02-01Feb 20254.452.422.03
2025-03-01Mar 20254.282.331.95
2025-04-01Apr 20254.282.242.04
2025-05-01May 20254.422.312.11
2025-06-01Jun 20254.382.32.08
2025-07-01Jul 20254.392.382.01
2025-08-01Aug 20254.262.381.88
2025-09-01Sep 20254.122.371.75
2025-10-01Oct 20254.062.311.75
2025-11-01Nov 20254.092.271.82
2025-12-01Dec 20254.142.241.9
2026-01-01Jan 20264.212.311.9
2026-02-01Feb 20264.132.31.83
2026-05-01May 20264.482.442.04
Rows × columns
18 × 5
Period covered
to
Computed
Completeness
No missing values
Source
US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence
Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats
JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for The 10 year yield split into implied inflation and an implied real yield, derived from the stored result.
ColumnTypeRangeNotes
month date 2024-10-01 to 2026-05-01
month_label text 18 distinct values (Apr 2025, Aug 2025, Dec 2024…)
nominal_10y_pct number 4.06 to 4.63 percent
inflation_10y_pct number 2.24 to 2.44 percent
real_10y_pct number 1.75 to 2.23 percent

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.

Run it yourself

This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.

SELECT
    toString(y.month)                     AS month,
    formatDateTime(y.month, '%b %Y')      AS month_label,
    round(y.nominal, 2)                   AS nominal_10y_pct,
    round(i.expected_inflation, 2)        AS inflation_10y_pct,
    round(y.nominal - i.expected_inflation, 2) AS real_10y_pct
FROM
(
    SELECT
        toStartOfMonth(date)          AS month,
        avg(toFloat64(yield_10_year)) AS nominal
    FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
    WHERE date >= today() - 760 AND yield_10_year > 0
    GROUP BY month
) AS y
INNER JOIN
(
    SELECT
        toStartOfMonth(date)            AS month,
        avg(toFloat64(market_10_year))  AS expected_inflation
    FROM global_markets.inflation_expectations
    WHERE date >= today() - 760 AND market_10_year > 0
    GROUP BY month
) AS i USING (month)
ORDER BY month
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