Ten year inflation expectations: market implied against model based
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-10-05, from What Is the Term Premium in Bond Yields?.
| month | month_label | market_10y_pct | model_10y_pct | model_gap_pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-01 | Oct 2024 | 2.29 | 2.12 | 0.17 |
| 2024-11-01 | Nov 2024 | 2.32 | 2.33 | 0.01 |
| 2024-12-01 | Dec 2024 | 2.3 | 2.32 | 0.02 |
| 2025-01-01 | Jan 2025 | 2.4 | 2.44 | 0.04 |
| 2025-02-01 | Feb 2025 | 2.42 | 2.47 | 0.05 |
| 2025-03-01 | Mar 2025 | 2.33 | 2.3 | 0.03 |
| 2025-04-01 | Apr 2025 | 2.24 | 2.35 | 0.11 |
| 2025-05-01 | May 2025 | 2.31 | 2.31 | 0 |
| 2025-06-01 | Jun 2025 | 2.3 | 2.35 | 0.05 |
| 2025-07-01 | Jul 2025 | 2.38 | 2.34 | 0.04 |
| 2025-08-01 | Aug 2025 | 2.38 | 2.28 | 0.1 |
| 2025-09-01 | Sep 2025 | 2.37 | 2.3 | 0.07 |
| 2025-10-01 | Oct 2025 | 2.31 | 2.3 | 0.01 |
| 2025-11-01 | Nov 2025 | 2.27 | 2.31 | 0.04 |
| 2025-12-01 | Dec 2025 | 2.24 | 2.35 | 0.11 |
| 2026-01-01 | Jan 2026 | 2.31 | 2.33 | 0.02 |
| 2026-02-01 | Feb 2026 | 2.3 | 2.37 | 0.07 |
| 2026-05-01 | May 2026 | 2.44 | 2.48 | 0.04 |
- Rows × columns
- 18 × 5
- Period covered
- to
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
month |
date | 2024-10-01 to 2026-05-01 | |
month_label |
text | 18 distinct values (Apr 2025, Aug 2025, Dec 2024…) | |
market_10y_pct |
number | 2.24 to 2.44 | percent |
model_10y_pct |
number | 2.12 to 2.48 | percent |
model_gap_pct |
number | 0 to 0.17 | percent |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
SELECT
toString(toStartOfMonth(date)) AS month,
formatDateTime(toStartOfMonth(date), '%b %Y') AS month_label,
round(avg(toFloat64(market_10_year)), 2) AS market_10y_pct,
round(avg(toFloat64(model_10_year)), 2) AS model_10y_pct,
round(abs(avg(toFloat64(market_10_year)) - avg(toFloat64(model_10_year))), 2) AS model_gap_pct
FROM global_markets.inflation_expectations
WHERE date >= today() - 760
AND market_10_year > 0
AND model_10_year > 0
GROUP BY toStartOfMonth(date)
ORDER BY toStartOfMonth(date)
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