The Rule of 16 in Options, and When It Breaks
Does a Monday move like three calendar days? SPY by weekdayranking ·
2026-08-22 · 5×4
The largest single session against a typical one, by nametable ·
2026-08-22 · 6×5
Implied volatility divided by 16, next to the realized daily moveranking ·
2026-08-22 · 6×4
How far SPY travels over one session, and over sixty threeranking ·
2026-08-22 · 7×4
Does a Monday move like three calendar days? SPY by weekday
Does a Monday move like three calendar days? SPY by weekday
| label | sigma_pct | vs_all_days_ratio | sessions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | 0.806 | 0.85 | 143 |
| Tue | 0.785 | 0.82 | 157 |
| Wed | 1.18 | 1.24 | 154 |
| Thu | 0.988 | 1.04 | 149 |
| Fri | 1.001 | 1.05 | 150 |
the exact SQL behind every number
SELECT
label,
round(sigma * 100, 3) AS sigma_pct,
round(sigma / avg(sigma) OVER (), 2) AS vs_all_days_ratio,
sessions
FROM
(
SELECT
formatDateTime(session_date, '%a') AS label,
min(toDayOfWeek(session_date)) AS dow,
stddevPop(daily_return) AS sigma,
count() AS sessions
FROM
(
SELECT
session_date,
close_px / lagInFrame(close_px) OVER (ORDER BY session_date ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) - 1 AS daily_return
FROM
(
SELECT
date AS session_date,
toFloat64(max(close)) AS close_px
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND date >= today() - 1100
AND date < today() - 1
GROUP BY session_date
)
)
WHERE isFinite(daily_return)
GROUP BY label
)
ORDER BY dow
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