How far SPY travels over one session, and over sixty three
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-22, from The Rule of 16 in Options, and When It Breaks.
| horizon | move_pct | daily_equivalent_pct | sample_count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | 0.97 | 0.97 | 753 |
| 2 sessions | 1.31 | 0.93 | 752 |
| 5 sessions | 2.01 | 0.9 | 749 |
| 10 sessions | 2.72 | 0.86 | 744 |
| 21 sessions | 3.8 | 0.83 | 733 |
| 42 sessions | 5.28 | 0.81 | 712 |
| 63 sessions | 5.89 | 0.74 | 691 |
- Rows × columns
- 7 × 4
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
horizon |
text | 7 distinct values (1 session, 10 sessions, 2 sessions…) | |
move_pct |
number | 0.97 to 5.89 | percent |
daily_equivalent_pct |
number | 0.74 to 0.97 | percent |
sample_count |
number | 691 to 753 | count |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
the exact SQL behind every number
SELECT
horizon,
round(sqrt(arrayReduce('varPop', returns)) * 100, 2) AS move_pct,
round(sqrt(arrayReduce('varPop', returns)) * 100 / sqrt(h), 2) AS daily_equivalent_pct,
length(returns) AS sample_count
FROM
(
SELECT
hz.h AS h,
concat(toString(hz.h), if(hz.h = 1, ' session', ' sessions')) AS horizon,
arrayMap((later, earlier) -> (later / earlier) - 1,
arraySlice(spy.closes, hz.h + 1),
arraySlice(spy.closes, 1, length(spy.closes) - hz.h)) AS returns
FROM
(
SELECT arrayJoin([1, 2, 5, 10, 21, 42, 63]) AS h
) AS hz
CROSS JOIN
(
SELECT arrayMap(t -> t.2, arraySort(t -> t.1, groupArray((session_date, close_px)))) AS closes
FROM
(
SELECT
date AS session_date,
toFloat64(max(close)) AS close_px
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND date >= today() - 1100
AND date < today() - 1
GROUP BY session_date
)
) AS spy
)
WHERE length(returns) > 100
ORDER BY h
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