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Implied volatility divided by 16, next to the realized daily move

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-22, from The Rule of 16 in Options, and When It Breaks.

as of ranking 6×4read in context →
Implied volatility divided by 16, next to the realized daily move — 6 rows by 4 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
symbolannual_iv_pctimplied_daily_pctrealized_daily_pct
NVDA41.32.582.4
AMZN35.52.222.33
MSFT33.32.082.36
AAPL26.81.681.73
KO20.41.271.31
SPY16.51.030.88
Rows × columns
6 × 4
Computed
Completeness
No missing values
Source
US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence
Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats
JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for Implied volatility divided by 16, next to the realized daily move, derived from the stored result.
ColumnTypeRangeNotes
symbol text 6 distinct values (AAPL, AMZN, KO…)
annual_iv_pct number 16.5 to 41.3 percent
implied_daily_pct number 1.03 to 2.58 percent
realized_daily_pct number 0.88 to 2.4 percent

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.

the exact SQL behind every number
SELECT
    iv.symbol                AS symbol,
    round(iv.iv_pct, 1)      AS annual_iv_pct,
    round(iv.iv_pct / 16, 2) AS implied_daily_pct,
    round(rv.sigma_pct, 2)   AS realized_daily_pct
FROM
(
    SELECT
        underlying_symbol             AS symbol,
        avg(implied_volatility) * 100 AS iv_pct
    FROM global_markets.options_greeks
    WHERE underlying_symbol IN ('SPY', 'AAPL', 'MSFT', 'NVDA', 'AMZN', 'KO')
      AND date >= today() - 190
      AND date <  today() - 1
      AND iv_converged = 1
      AND volume > 0
      AND underlying_close > 0
      AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 20 AND 45
      AND abs(toFloat64(strike_price) / toFloat64(underlying_close) - 1) < 0.05
    GROUP BY symbol
) AS iv
INNER JOIN
(
    SELECT
        symbol,
        stddevPop(daily_return) * 100 AS sigma_pct
    FROM
    (
        SELECT
            symbol,
            close_px / lagInFrame(close_px) OVER (PARTITION BY symbol ORDER BY session_date ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) - 1 AS daily_return
        FROM
        (
            SELECT
                ticker                AS symbol,
                date                  AS session_date,
                toFloat64(max(close)) AS close_px
            FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
            WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'AAPL', 'MSFT', 'NVDA', 'AMZN', 'KO')
              AND date >= today() - 190
              AND date <  today() - 1
            GROUP BY symbol, session_date
        )
    )
    WHERE isFinite(daily_return)
    GROUP BY symbol
) AS rv ON iv.symbol = rv.symbol
ORDER BY annual_iv_pct DESC

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