Implied volatility divided by 16, next to the realized daily move
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-22, from The Rule of 16 in Options, and When It Breaks.
| symbol | annual_iv_pct | implied_daily_pct | realized_daily_pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 41.3 | 2.58 | 2.4 |
| AMZN | 35.5 | 2.22 | 2.33 |
| MSFT | 33.3 | 2.08 | 2.36 |
| AAPL | 26.8 | 1.68 | 1.73 |
| KO | 20.4 | 1.27 | 1.31 |
| SPY | 16.5 | 1.03 | 0.88 |
- Rows × columns
- 6 × 4
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
symbol |
text | 6 distinct values (AAPL, AMZN, KO…) | |
annual_iv_pct |
number | 16.5 to 41.3 | percent |
implied_daily_pct |
number | 1.03 to 2.58 | percent |
realized_daily_pct |
number | 0.88 to 2.4 | percent |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
the exact SQL behind every number
SELECT
iv.symbol AS symbol,
round(iv.iv_pct, 1) AS annual_iv_pct,
round(iv.iv_pct / 16, 2) AS implied_daily_pct,
round(rv.sigma_pct, 2) AS realized_daily_pct
FROM
(
SELECT
underlying_symbol AS symbol,
avg(implied_volatility) * 100 AS iv_pct
FROM global_markets.options_greeks
WHERE underlying_symbol IN ('SPY', 'AAPL', 'MSFT', 'NVDA', 'AMZN', 'KO')
AND date >= today() - 190
AND date < today() - 1
AND iv_converged = 1
AND volume > 0
AND underlying_close > 0
AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 20 AND 45
AND abs(toFloat64(strike_price) / toFloat64(underlying_close) - 1) < 0.05
GROUP BY symbol
) AS iv
INNER JOIN
(
SELECT
symbol,
stddevPop(daily_return) * 100 AS sigma_pct
FROM
(
SELECT
symbol,
close_px / lagInFrame(close_px) OVER (PARTITION BY symbol ORDER BY session_date ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) - 1 AS daily_return
FROM
(
SELECT
ticker AS symbol,
date AS session_date,
toFloat64(max(close)) AS close_px
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'AAPL', 'MSFT', 'NVDA', 'AMZN', 'KO')
AND date >= today() - 190
AND date < today() - 1
GROUP BY symbol, session_date
)
)
WHERE isFinite(daily_return)
GROUP BY symbol
) AS rv ON iv.symbol = rv.symbol
ORDER BY annual_iv_pct DESC
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