rates — 71 answered market questions

The rank receipt: H1 2026's twist against every prior half, by absolute size

most recentas of 2026-07-26 scalar 1×6read in context →

h1 2026 twist bp

rank by magnitude

halves compared

100

first year

1,976

halves with inversion

last inverted half start

2024-07-01

the exact SQL behind every number

SELECT
    round(anyIf(twist, period_start = '2026-01-01'), 0) AS h1_2026_twist_bp,
    arrayCount(x -> abs(x) > abs(anyIf(twist, period_start = '2026-01-01')), groupArrayIf(twist, period_start != '2026-01-01')) + 1 AS rank_by_magnitude,
    count() AS halves_compared,
    toUInt16OrZero(substring(min(period_start), 1, 4)) AS first_year,
    countIf(min_2s10s < 0) AS halves_with_inversion,
    max(if(min_2s10s < 0, period_start, '')) AS last_inverted_half_start
FROM (
    SELECT concat(toString(toYear(date)), if(toMonth(date) <= 6, '-01-01', '-07-01')) AS period_start,
           count() AS prints,
           (argMax(yield_2_year, date) - argMin(yield_2_year, date)) * 100
             - (argMax(yield_10_year, date) - argMin(yield_10_year, date)) * 100 AS twist,
           min(yield_10_year - yield_2_year) * 100 AS min_2s10s
    FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
    WHERE date >= toDate('1976-07-01') AND date <= toDate('2026-06-30')
      AND isNotNull(yield_2_year) AND isNotNull(yield_10_year)
    GROUP BY period_start
    HAVING prints >= 100
)

More from this analysisTreasury Yield Curve, H1 2026: Twist, Not Shift

The 30-year's half: start, end, the first and last 5% prints, time spent at or above 5%, and the high scalar 1×8 → The 2s10s slope receipt: start, end, minimum (with its date), maximum, and print count scalar 1×6 → The 2s10s spread, every print of the half table 124×2 → Every half-year since 1976: the 2y and 10y change, the twist between them, and the half's lowest 2s10s print table 100×7 → See all 2,170 queries →