Does IPO GMP Predict Listing Gains?
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Dispersion of the opening move, by first-session dollar turnover
Dispersion of the opening move, by first-session dollar turnover
| day1_turnover_tier | listings | median_offer_to_open_pct | p10_to_p90_spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| under $5M traded | 178 | 12.1 | 61672.8 |
| $5M to $50M | 652 | 1.2 | 1917.8 |
| $50M to $500M | 894 | 3.8 | 64.1 |
| $500M and up | 152 | 32.8 | 103.9 |
the exact SQL behind every number
WITH day_one AS
(
SELECT
i.ticker AS ticker,
i.list_date AS list_date,
(toFloat64(d.open_px) / i.offer_price - 1) * 100 AS offer_to_open,
toFloat64(d.open_px) * toFloat64(d.day_volume) AS day1_turnover
FROM
(
SELECT
ticker,
toDate(argMax(listing_date, last_updated)) AS list_date,
argMax(toFloat64(final_issue_price), last_updated) AS offer_price
FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos
WHERE listing_date >= '2017-01-01'
AND listing_date < '2026-09-01'
AND final_issue_price > 0
AND currency_code = 'USD'
AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
GROUP BY ticker
) AS i
INNER JOIN
(
SELECT
ticker,
date,
max(open) AS open_px,
max(volume) AS day_volume
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE date >= '2017-01-01'
AND date < '2026-09-01'
GROUP BY ticker, date
) AS d
ON d.ticker = i.ticker AND d.date = i.list_date
WHERE d.day_volume > 0
AND d.open_px > 0
AND i.offer_price > 0
)
SELECT
multiIf(day1_turnover < 5000000, 'under $5M traded',
day1_turnover < 50000000, '$5M to $50M',
day1_turnover < 500000000, '$50M to $500M',
'$500M and up') AS day1_turnover_tier,
count() AS listings,
round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(offer_to_open, cityHash64(ticker)), 1) AS median_offer_to_open_pct,
round(quantileDeterministic(0.9)(offer_to_open, cityHash64(ticker))
- quantileDeterministic(0.1)(offer_to_open, cityHash64(ticker)), 1) AS p10_to_p90_spread
FROM day_one
GROUP BY day1_turnover_tier
ORDER BY min(day1_turnover)
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