How far the mean and volatility estimates scatter by sample length
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-16, from When Equal Weight Beats Optimization.
| sample_length | mean_estimate_spread_pct | vol_estimate_spread_pct | window_count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 sessions | 53.7 | 10.9 | 239 |
| 63 sessions | 27.3 | 10.3 | 79 |
| 126 sessions | 19.6 | 9.7 | 39 |
| 252 sessions | 14.7 | 8.6 | 19 |
| 504 sessions | 10.6 | 6.6 | 9 |
- Rows × columns
- 5 × 4
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
sample_length |
text | 5 distinct values (126 sessions, 21 sessions, 252 sessions…) | |
mean_estimate_spread_pct |
number | 10.6 to 53.7 | percent |
vol_estimate_spread_pct |
number | 6.6 to 10.9 | percent |
window_count |
number | 9 to 239 | count |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
the exact SQL behind every number
WITH prices AS
(
SELECT
date,
toFloat64(max(close)) AS c
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND date >= '2005-01-01'
AND date < '2025-01-01'
GROUP BY date
),
rets AS
(
SELECT
date,
c / lagInFrame(c, 1) OVER (ORDER BY date ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) - 1 AS ret
FROM prices
),
numbered AS
(
SELECT
ret,
row_number() OVER (ORDER BY date ASC) AS i
FROM rets
WHERE isFinite(ret)
),
sweep AS
(
SELECT
arrayJoin([21, 63, 126, 252, 504]) AS n,
i,
ret
FROM numbered
),
blocks AS
(
SELECT
n,
intDiv(i - 1, n) AS blk,
avg(ret) * 252 * 100 AS mean_pct,
stddevPop(ret) * sqrt(252) * 100 AS vol_pct
FROM sweep
GROUP BY n, blk
HAVING count() = n
)
SELECT
concat(toString(n), ' sessions') AS sample_length,
round(stddevPop(mean_pct), 1) AS mean_estimate_spread_pct,
round(stddevPop(vol_pct), 1) AS vol_estimate_spread_pct,
count() AS window_count
FROM blocks
GROUP BY n
ORDER BY n ASC
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