{"slug":"what-is-the-term-premium","qid":"two_models","label":"Ten year inflation expectations: market implied against model based","post_title":"What Is the Term Premium in Bond Yields?","post_url":"/blog/what-is-the-term-premium#q-two_models","columns":["month","month_label","market_10y_pct","model_10y_pct","model_gap_pct"],"rows":[{"month":"2024-10-01","month_label":"Oct 2024","market_10y_pct":2.29,"model_10y_pct":2.12,"model_gap_pct":0.17},{"month":"2024-11-01","month_label":"Nov 2024","market_10y_pct":2.32,"model_10y_pct":2.33,"model_gap_pct":0.01},{"month":"2024-12-01","month_label":"Dec 2024","market_10y_pct":2.3,"model_10y_pct":2.32,"model_gap_pct":0.02},{"month":"2025-01-01","month_label":"Jan 2025","market_10y_pct":2.4,"model_10y_pct":2.44,"model_gap_pct":0.04},{"month":"2025-02-01","month_label":"Feb 2025","market_10y_pct":2.42,"model_10y_pct":2.47,"model_gap_pct":0.05},{"month":"2025-03-01","month_label":"Mar 2025","market_10y_pct":2.33,"model_10y_pct":2.3,"model_gap_pct":0.03},{"month":"2025-04-01","month_label":"Apr 2025","market_10y_pct":2.24,"model_10y_pct":2.35,"model_gap_pct":0.11},{"month":"2025-05-01","month_label":"May 2025","market_10y_pct":2.31,"model_10y_pct":2.31,"model_gap_pct":0},{"month":"2025-06-01","month_label":"Jun 2025","market_10y_pct":2.3,"model_10y_pct":2.35,"model_gap_pct":0.05},{"month":"2025-07-01","month_label":"Jul 2025","market_10y_pct":2.38,"model_10y_pct":2.34,"model_gap_pct":0.04},{"month":"2025-08-01","month_label":"Aug 2025","market_10y_pct":2.38,"model_10y_pct":2.28,"model_gap_pct":0.1},{"month":"2025-09-01","month_label":"Sep 2025","market_10y_pct":2.37,"model_10y_pct":2.3,"model_gap_pct":0.07},{"month":"2025-10-01","month_label":"Oct 2025","market_10y_pct":2.31,"model_10y_pct":2.3,"model_gap_pct":0.01},{"month":"2025-11-01","month_label":"Nov 2025","market_10y_pct":2.27,"model_10y_pct":2.31,"model_gap_pct":0.04},{"month":"2025-12-01","month_label":"Dec 2025","market_10y_pct":2.24,"model_10y_pct":2.35,"model_gap_pct":0.11},{"month":"2026-01-01","month_label":"Jan 2026","market_10y_pct":2.31,"model_10y_pct":2.33,"model_gap_pct":0.02},{"month":"2026-02-01","month_label":"Feb 2026","market_10y_pct":2.3,"model_10y_pct":2.37,"model_gap_pct":0.07},{"month":"2026-05-01","month_label":"May 2026","market_10y_pct":2.44,"model_10y_pct":2.48,"model_gap_pct":0.04}],"shape":"series","sql":"SELECT\n    toString(toStartOfMonth(date))                AS month,\n    formatDateTime(toStartOfMonth(date), '%b %Y') AS month_label,\n    round(avg(toFloat64(market_10_year)), 2)      AS market_10y_pct,\n    round(avg(toFloat64(model_10_year)), 2)       AS model_10y_pct,\n    round(abs(avg(toFloat64(market_10_year)) - avg(toFloat64(model_10_year))), 2) AS model_gap_pct\nFROM global_markets.inflation_expectations\nWHERE date >= today() - 760\n  AND market_10_year > 0\n  AND model_10_year > 0\nGROUP BY toStartOfMonth(date)\nORDER BY toStartOfMonth(date)","computed_at":"2026-10-05T15:00:35.704113+00:00","elapsed":0.037660595}