{"slug":"what-is-the-term-premium","qid":"real_split","label":"The 10 year yield split into implied inflation and an implied real yield","post_title":"What Is the Term Premium in Bond Yields?","post_url":"/blog/what-is-the-term-premium#q-real_split","columns":["month","month_label","nominal_10y_pct","inflation_10y_pct","real_10y_pct"],"rows":[{"month":"2024-10-01","month_label":"Oct 2024","nominal_10y_pct":4.1,"inflation_10y_pct":2.29,"real_10y_pct":1.81},{"month":"2024-11-01","month_label":"Nov 2024","nominal_10y_pct":4.36,"inflation_10y_pct":2.32,"real_10y_pct":2.04},{"month":"2024-12-01","month_label":"Dec 2024","nominal_10y_pct":4.39,"inflation_10y_pct":2.3,"real_10y_pct":2.09},{"month":"2025-01-01","month_label":"Jan 2025","nominal_10y_pct":4.63,"inflation_10y_pct":2.4,"real_10y_pct":2.23},{"month":"2025-02-01","month_label":"Feb 2025","nominal_10y_pct":4.45,"inflation_10y_pct":2.42,"real_10y_pct":2.03},{"month":"2025-03-01","month_label":"Mar 2025","nominal_10y_pct":4.28,"inflation_10y_pct":2.33,"real_10y_pct":1.95},{"month":"2025-04-01","month_label":"Apr 2025","nominal_10y_pct":4.28,"inflation_10y_pct":2.24,"real_10y_pct":2.04},{"month":"2025-05-01","month_label":"May 2025","nominal_10y_pct":4.42,"inflation_10y_pct":2.31,"real_10y_pct":2.11},{"month":"2025-06-01","month_label":"Jun 2025","nominal_10y_pct":4.38,"inflation_10y_pct":2.3,"real_10y_pct":2.08},{"month":"2025-07-01","month_label":"Jul 2025","nominal_10y_pct":4.39,"inflation_10y_pct":2.38,"real_10y_pct":2.01},{"month":"2025-08-01","month_label":"Aug 2025","nominal_10y_pct":4.26,"inflation_10y_pct":2.38,"real_10y_pct":1.88},{"month":"2025-09-01","month_label":"Sep 2025","nominal_10y_pct":4.12,"inflation_10y_pct":2.37,"real_10y_pct":1.75},{"month":"2025-10-01","month_label":"Oct 2025","nominal_10y_pct":4.06,"inflation_10y_pct":2.31,"real_10y_pct":1.75},{"month":"2025-11-01","month_label":"Nov 2025","nominal_10y_pct":4.09,"inflation_10y_pct":2.27,"real_10y_pct":1.82},{"month":"2025-12-01","month_label":"Dec 2025","nominal_10y_pct":4.14,"inflation_10y_pct":2.24,"real_10y_pct":1.9},{"month":"2026-01-01","month_label":"Jan 2026","nominal_10y_pct":4.21,"inflation_10y_pct":2.31,"real_10y_pct":1.9},{"month":"2026-02-01","month_label":"Feb 2026","nominal_10y_pct":4.13,"inflation_10y_pct":2.3,"real_10y_pct":1.83},{"month":"2026-05-01","month_label":"May 2026","nominal_10y_pct":4.48,"inflation_10y_pct":2.44,"real_10y_pct":2.04}],"shape":"series","sql":"SELECT\n    toString(y.month)                     AS month,\n    formatDateTime(y.month, '%b %Y')      AS month_label,\n    round(y.nominal, 2)                   AS nominal_10y_pct,\n    round(i.expected_inflation, 2)        AS inflation_10y_pct,\n    round(y.nominal - i.expected_inflation, 2) AS real_10y_pct\nFROM\n(\n    SELECT\n        toStartOfMonth(date)          AS month,\n        avg(toFloat64(yield_10_year)) AS nominal\n    FROM global_markets.treasury_yields\n    WHERE date >= today() - 760 AND yield_10_year > 0\n    GROUP BY month\n) AS y\nINNER JOIN\n(\n    SELECT\n        toStartOfMonth(date)            AS month,\n        avg(toFloat64(market_10_year))  AS expected_inflation\n    FROM global_markets.inflation_expectations\n    WHERE date >= today() - 760 AND market_10_year > 0\n    GROUP BY month\n) AS i USING (month)\nORDER BY month","computed_at":"2026-10-05T15:00:35.861133+00:00","elapsed":0.066634964}