forward_returns
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-09-20, from stock-returns-after-the-first-fed-hike.
| cycle | fwd_1m_pct | fwd_3m_pct | fwd_6m_pct | fwd_12m_pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2004 | -3.2 | -2.4 | 5.8 | 4.1 |
| Dec 16, 2015 | -9.7 | -2.3 | 0.2 | 8.2 |
| Mar 16, 2022 | 0.5 | -15.8 | -11.5 | -9.1 |
- Rows × columns
- 3 × 5
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
cycle |
text | 3 distinct values (Dec 16, 2015, Jun 30, 2004, Mar 16, 2022) | |
fwd_1m_pct |
number | -9.7 to 0.5 | percent |
fwd_3m_pct |
number | -15.8 to -2.3 | percent |
fwd_6m_pct |
number | -11.5 to 5.8 | percent |
fwd_12m_pct |
number | -9.1 to 8.2 | percent |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
WITH px AS
(
SELECT
date,
toFloat64(close) AS px_close,
multiIf(date <= '2005-06-30', toDate('2004-06-30'),
date <= '2016-12-16', toDate('2015-12-16'),
toDate('2022-03-16')) AS hike_date
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND ((date >= '2004-06-30' AND date <= '2005-06-30')
OR (date >= '2015-12-16' AND date <= '2016-12-16')
OR (date >= '2022-03-16' AND date <= '2023-03-16'))
)
SELECT
formatDateTime(hike_date, '%b %e, %Y') AS cycle,
round(100 * (argMaxIf(px_close, date, date <= addMonths(hike_date, 1)) / argMin(px_close, date) - 1), 1) AS fwd_1m_pct,
round(100 * (argMaxIf(px_close, date, date <= addMonths(hike_date, 3)) / argMin(px_close, date) - 1), 1) AS fwd_3m_pct,
round(100 * (argMaxIf(px_close, date, date <= addMonths(hike_date, 6)) / argMin(px_close, date) - 1), 1) AS fwd_6m_pct,
round(100 * (argMaxIf(px_close, date, date <= addMonths(hike_date, 12)) / argMin(px_close, date) - 1), 1) AS fwd_12m_pct
FROM px
GROUP BY hike_date
ORDER BY hike_date