STRASMORE/EXPLORE 3,293 QUERIES
Full options quote history: clean NBBO bid/ask snapshots for any US option contract at the interval you choose, by SQL API, $79 a month. See the options quotes plan

The 2s10s Treasury spread on hike day and twelve months later

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-09-20, from Stock Returns After the First Fed Rate Hike.

as of ranking 3×4read in context →
The 2s10s Treasury spread on hike day and twelve months later — 3 rows by 4 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
cyclespread_at_hike_bpsspread_12m_later_bpschange_bps
Jun 30, 200419228-164
Dec 16, 20151281324
Mar 16, 202224-58-82
Rows × columns
3 × 4
Computed
Completeness
No missing values
Source
US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence
Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats
JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for The 2s10s Treasury spread on hike day and twelve months later, derived from the stored result.
ColumnTypeRangeNotes
cycle text 3 distinct values (Dec 16, 2015, Jun 30, 2004, Mar 16, 2022)
spread_at_hike_bps number 24 to 192
spread_12m_later_bps number -58 to 132
change_bps number -164 to 4

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.

Run it yourself

This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.

WITH ty AS
(
    SELECT
        date,
        toFloat64(yield_10_year) - toFloat64(yield_2_year) AS spread_pp,
        multiIf(date <= '2005-06-30', toDate('2004-06-30'),
                date <= '2016-12-16', toDate('2015-12-16'),
                                      toDate('2022-03-16')) AS hike_date
    FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
    WHERE ((date >= '2004-06-23' AND date <= '2005-06-30')
        OR (date >= '2015-12-09' AND date <= '2016-12-16')
        OR (date >= '2022-03-09' AND date <= '2023-03-16'))
      AND yield_10_year > 0
      AND yield_2_year > 0
)
SELECT
    formatDateTime(hike_date, '%b %e, %Y')                                                AS cycle,
    toInt32(round(100 * argMaxIf(spread_pp, date, date <= hike_date)))                    AS spread_at_hike_bps,
    toInt32(round(100 * argMaxIf(spread_pp, date, date <= addMonths(hike_date, 12))))     AS spread_12m_later_bps,
    toInt32(round(100 * (argMaxIf(spread_pp, date, date <= addMonths(hike_date, 12))
                       - argMaxIf(spread_pp, date, date <= hike_date))))                  AS change_bps
FROM ty
GROUP BY hike_date
HAVING countIf(date <= hike_date) > 0
ORDER BY hike_date
⌘/Ctrl + Enter

Work with this data in your AI assistant

Opens ready to query, with this page's data. Free, no account.

Claude ChatGPT Gemini Muse Your own agent
More from this analysisStock Returns After the First Fed Rate Hike
SPY versus its hike-day close, week by week, three cycles aligned table 53×4 → Lowest and highest SPY close in the twelve months after each first hike table 3×5 → SPY forward returns after the first hike of each cycle table 3×5 → Calendar days from a record close to the next one, SPY ranking 5×4 → Record closes per year, SPY (price basis, first four years of the file excluded) table 20×7 → Deepest closing declines from a record close, SPY table 7×5 → See all 3,293 queries →