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US listings clearing 1.5x the offer price on the first close, by listing year

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-07, from Japanese IPO Lockups: The 1.5x Release Rule.

as of ranking 8×4read in context →
US listings clearing 1.5x the offer price on the first close, by listing year — 8 rows by 4 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
yearlisting_countcleared_1_5x_day_one_pctmedian_first_close_ratio
201918723.51.09
202029328.71.04
2021720161.02
202213626.51
202313731.41.04
202421625.51.02
202531317.31.01
20261446.91
Rows × columns
8 × 4
Computed
Completeness
No missing values
Source
US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence
Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats
JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for US listings clearing 1.5x the offer price on the first close, by listing year, derived from the stored result.
ColumnTypeRangeNotes
year number 2,019 to 2,026
listing_count number 136 to 720 count
cleared_1_5x_day_one_pct number 6.9 to 31.4 percent
median_first_close_ratio number 1 to 1.09 US dollars

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.

the exact SQL behind every number
WITH offers AS
(
    SELECT
        ticker,
        min(listing_date)                 AS listed_on,
        toFloat64(max(final_issue_price)) AS offer_price
    FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos
    WHERE final_issue_price > 0
      AND listing_date >= '2019-01-01'
      AND listing_date <  '2026-07-01'
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    GROUP BY ticker
),
debut AS
(
    SELECT
        o.ticker                           AS ticker,
        toYear(o.listed_on)                AS listing_year,
        o.offer_price                      AS offer_price,
        argMin(toFloat64(d.close), d.date) AS first_close
    FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs AS d
    INNER JOIN offers AS o ON d.ticker = o.ticker
    WHERE d.date >= '2019-01-01'
      AND d.date >= o.listed_on
      AND d.date <  o.listed_on + 10
    GROUP BY ticker, listing_year, offer_price
)
SELECT
    listing_year AS year,
    count()      AS listing_count,
    round(100 * countIf(first_close >= 1.5 * offer_price) / count(), 1)                    AS cleared_1_5x_day_one_pct,
    round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(first_close / offer_price, cityHash64(ticker)), 2)    AS median_first_close_ratio
FROM debut
GROUP BY year
ORDER BY year

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