{"slug":"japan-ipo-lockup-release-conditions","qid":"day_one_gap","label":"US listings clearing 1.5x the offer price on the first close, by listing year","post_title":"Japanese IPO Lockups: The 1.5x Release Rule","post_url":"/blog/japan-ipo-lockup-release-conditions#q-day_one_gap","columns":["year","listing_count","cleared_1_5x_day_one_pct","median_first_close_ratio"],"rows":[{"year":2019,"listing_count":187,"cleared_1_5x_day_one_pct":23.5,"median_first_close_ratio":1.09},{"year":2020,"listing_count":293,"cleared_1_5x_day_one_pct":28.7,"median_first_close_ratio":1.04},{"year":2021,"listing_count":720,"cleared_1_5x_day_one_pct":16,"median_first_close_ratio":1.02},{"year":2022,"listing_count":136,"cleared_1_5x_day_one_pct":26.5,"median_first_close_ratio":1},{"year":2023,"listing_count":137,"cleared_1_5x_day_one_pct":31.4,"median_first_close_ratio":1.04},{"year":2024,"listing_count":216,"cleared_1_5x_day_one_pct":25.5,"median_first_close_ratio":1.02},{"year":2025,"listing_count":313,"cleared_1_5x_day_one_pct":17.3,"median_first_close_ratio":1.01},{"year":2026,"listing_count":144,"cleared_1_5x_day_one_pct":6.9,"median_first_close_ratio":1}],"shape":"ranking","sql":"WITH offers AS\n(\n    SELECT\n        ticker,\n        min(listing_date)                 AS listed_on,\n        toFloat64(max(final_issue_price)) AS offer_price\n    FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos\n    WHERE final_issue_price > 0\n      AND listing_date >= '2019-01-01'\n      AND listing_date <  '2026-07-01'\n      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')\n    GROUP BY ticker\n),\ndebut AS\n(\n    SELECT\n        o.ticker                           AS ticker,\n        toYear(o.listed_on)                AS listing_year,\n        o.offer_price                      AS offer_price,\n        argMin(toFloat64(d.close), d.date) AS first_close\n    FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs AS d\n    INNER JOIN offers AS o ON d.ticker = o.ticker\n    WHERE d.date >= '2019-01-01'\n      AND d.date >= o.listed_on\n      AND d.date <  o.listed_on + 10\n    GROUP BY ticker, listing_year, offer_price\n)\nSELECT\n    listing_year AS year,\n    count()      AS listing_count,\n    round(100 * countIf(first_close >= 1.5 * offer_price) / count(), 1)                    AS cleared_1_5x_day_one_pct,\n    round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(first_close / offer_price, cityHash64(ticker)), 2)    AS median_first_close_ratio\nFROM debut\nGROUP BY year\nORDER BY year","computed_at":"2026-08-07T14:26:36.402621+00:00","elapsed":0.003753052}