Advertised iron condor win rate by short delta band (SPY)

Run it yourself

This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.

SELECT
    multiIf(abs(delta) < 0.10, '5 to 10 delta',
            abs(delta) < 0.15, '10 to 15 delta',
            abs(delta) < 0.20, '15 to 20 delta',
            abs(delta) < 0.25, '20 to 25 delta',
                               '25 to 30 delta')          AS delta_bucket,
    round(100 * avgIf(abs(delta), delta < 0), 1)           AS short_put_delta_pct,
    round(100 * avgIf(delta, delta > 0), 1)                AS short_call_delta_pct,
    round(100 - 100 * (avgIf(abs(delta), delta < 0)
                     + avgIf(delta, delta > 0)), 1)        AS condor_win_rate_pct,
    count()                                                AS contract_count
FROM global_markets.options_greeks
WHERE underlying_symbol = 'SPY'
  AND date >= '2026-07-01'
  AND date <  '2026-10-01'
  AND iv_converged = 1
  AND volume > 0
  AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 28 AND 45
  AND abs(delta) >= 0.05
  AND abs(delta) <  0.30
GROUP BY delta_bucket
HAVING countIf(delta < 0) > 0 AND countIf(delta > 0) > 0
ORDER BY condor_win_rate_pct DESC